Lions 2017 [MOD WARNING IN OP]

Buer

awec wrote: »

Sure, but to the extent that Carbery travels? I can't see it personally, still too much of a test novice.

Even though he's been rubbish I see Biggar as a way more likely pick if he wants an extra 10.

If they take a third outhalf I don't think it will be Biggar. His form has been poison of late and I don't see him as being someone that is a positive influence in a thrown together squad where cliques and egos have to be eradicated. The personality of guys is a very real factor and Biggar comes across as a very mouthy and difficult figure.

George Ford will probably get the nod. Going solidly and, if Sexton breaks down, there's a very simple option available to Gatland in reuniting the England 10/12 partnership without disturbing his midfield.

I still reckon we're going to see at least one big surprise call either as a utility back or a prop.

Former Former

If you're bringing a young, exciting guy who covers out-half and full-back and gives you something different to Sexton or Farrell, you'd have to say Sam Davies is more likely than Carbery to go.

Buer

Former Former wrote: »

If you're bringing a young, exciting guy who covers out-half and full-back and gives you something different to Sexton or Farrell, you'd have to say Sam Davies is more likely than Carbery to go.

Yup, I definitely think his name will be raised as an option this week when the management team sit down to discuss the squad. He looks out of sorts at the moment and low on confidence though. He had an utter shocker against Stade Francais last week.

Howley being the backs coach will be a factor though and might see him get in.

Common sense would suggest it's going to be a quite conservative squad and we've mentioned all the possibilities but there are always a couple of surprising picks that aren't based on the 6N. Matt Stevens hadn't played international rugby for over a year when named in 2013. Vunipola had one test start. Dylan Hartley was a bench player for England. Keith Earls had only one test start under his belt in 2009 also (against Canada). Alan Quinlan's test career was done when named.

I'm almost certain there's going to be a big surprise call somewhere. The Lions have nearly always brought someone who can play 10 but more commonly plays elsewhere; Hogg (apparently), Henson, Flutey, Hook, Healey, Catt etc.

Erik Shin

I'd say Zebo could be an outside bet..A winger who can play FB...Hogg is nailed on... Perhaps if he picks Zebo he has a little leeway elsewhere

Buer

Erik Shin wrote: »

I'd say Zebo could be an outside bet..A winger who can play FB...Hogg is nailed on... Perhaps if he picks Zebo he has a little leeway elsewhere

I'm not sure that will be a factor although it's certainly a positive for him. Others have that versatility too. Watson in particular plays a lot of his rugby at 15 for Bath. Daly has played 15 a bit too.

pickarooney

pickarooney wrote: »

Does nobody think Jackson has a chance?

Erik Shin wrote: »

Not even his mammy

Billy Beautiful Guillotine wrote: »

Not a snowball's.

Under what potential rationale might Jackson travel?

So the likely options are here:

Sexton
Farrell
Ford
Russell
Biggar

Having a quick look at a few different sites and some stats from the six nations it would appear that Jackson is better from the tee than Ford, Russell and Biggar and Farrell if you include the Italy game.

Over a 5 game run he had more tackles made and completed than Ford or Russell and his clean break and defenders beaten stats are also superior to Ford, Russell and Biggar.

For me first choice 10 is Sexton. Second choice is a problem. Farrell isn't playing there for England but would be my clear second choice based on his performances with Saracens.

After that its Ford v Russell v Biggar but personally I'd have Jackson in amongst them. Biggar had a complete mare at the weekend against Leinster and if Jackson delivered a performance like that I'd be furious at him.

I'm not saying Jackson should or would travel, but I don't think it should be dismissed out of hand because Russell, Biggar and Ford all have their weaknesses and Jackson has delivered on some pretty big stages of late. The problem for Jackson is that internationally he is completely over shadowed by Sexton but I think he is in the conversation to travel. Certainly I'd have him further up the pecking order at 10 than Carbery, unless the Lions happen to have another kicker on the field or Carbery plays 15.

AbusesToilets

Deleted User wrote: »

Under what potential rationale might Jackson travel?

So the likely options are here:

Sexton
Farrell
Ford
Russell
Biggar

Having a quick look at a few different sites and some stats from the six nations it would appear that Jackson is better from the tee than Ford, Russell and Biggar and Farrell if you include the Italy game.

Over a 5 game run he had more tackles made and completed than Ford or Russell and his clean break and defenders beaten stats are also superior to Ford, Russell and Biggar.

For me first choice 10 is Sexton. Second choice is a problem. Farrell isn't playing there for England but would be my clear second choice based on his performances with Saracens.

After that its Ford v Russell v Biggar but personally I'd have Jackson in amongst them. Biggar had a complete mare at the weekend against Leinster and if Jackson delivered a performance like that I'd be furious at him.

I'm not saying Jackson should or would travel, but I don't think it should be dismissed out of hand because Russell, Biggar and Ford all have their weaknesses and Jackson has delivered on some pretty big stages of late. The problem for Jackson is that internationally he is completely over shadowed by Sexton but I think he is in the conversation to travel. Certainly I'd have him further up the pecking order at 10 than Carbery, unless the Lions happen to have another kicker on the field or Carbery plays 15.

I'd say he's arguably the 2nd or 3rd best OH in the NH, depending on where you have Farrell playing. He was generally very good in SA, bar ****ing up the potential series winning pass.

He won't get picked, but he kind of should be.

pickarooney

Buer wrote: »

Yup, I definitely think his name will be raised as an option this week when the management team sit down to discuss the squad. He looks out of sorts at the moment and low on confidence though. He had an utter shocker against Stade Francais last week.

Howley being the backs coach will be a factor though and might see him get in.

Common sense would suggest it's going to be a quite conservative squad and we've mentioned all the possibilities but there are always a couple of surprising picks that aren't based on the 6N. Matt Stevens hadn't played international rugby for over a year when named in 2013. Vunipola had one test start. Dylan Hartley was a bench player for England. Keith Earls had only one test start under his belt in 2009 also (against Canada). Alan Quinlan's test career was done when named.

I'm almost certain there's going to be a big surprise call somewhere. The Lions have nearly always brought someone who can play 10 but more commonly plays elsewhere; Hogg (apparently), Henson, Flutey, Hook, Healey, Catt etc.

Madigan ! :pac:

Former Former

It's odd but in all the Lions speculation, I don't think I've seen Jackson mentioned once.

Chris Ashton is looking increasingly likely to travel.

With Warburton going for a scan today on the injury he got on Friday, we might see a gap opening up in the backrow. Think it was mentioned on Saturday that AWJ's shoulder is worse than initially thought. They would be two massive losses.

Buer

Forgot about Warburton's injury. I think he'll travel unless he's absolutely ruled out. He walked off the other night so I can't see him being ruled out for more than 2 months. I recall he wasn't available for the first 2 games of the 2013 tour either after being injured since April. Gatland will bring him unless he's definitely ruled out.

Payne was another guy who went off in a spot of bother at the weekend. He looked quite dejected coming off.

I don't think Ashton will get a call. He was in good form in 2013 but didn't get selected or even called up as a replacement. There's definitely a dislike there, I reckon. Christian Wade, Simon Zebo and Shane Williams all got called up to the squad and he was left out.

Former Former

Former Former wrote: »

Chris Ashton is looking increasingly likely to travel.

The problem is if Ashton is playing then you have to have Farrell on the pitch to keep him on his wing.

bilston

Buer wrote: »

10 days before the squad is named so I'll take a shot at it. Think Faletau has given Gatland his excuse now with MOTM yesterday. He's desperate for a reason to bring him.

Hookers: Best, Owens, Hartley
Props, McGrath, Healy, Furlong, Vunipola, Sinckler, Cole (I think we might well see a left field pick here though, don't rule out someone like John Ryan who can cover both sides).
Locks: Itoje, Henderson, Launchbury, AWJ, Johnny Gray
Back row: Vunipola, Warburton, Tipuric, Stander, SOB, Faletau, POM (straight call between POM and Moriarty for last spot)
Scrum half: Murray, Webb, Youngs
Outhalf: Sexton, Farrell, Carbery
Centre: Henshaw, Joseph, Davies, Payne
Wingers: Watson, North, Liam Williams, Daly
Full Back: Hogg, Halfpenny

I think we'll see a surprise in the backs and it will be someone who can play outhalf but cover elsewhere. That means someone from Carbery, Cipriani, Laidlaw, Sam Davies etc. It's left field but I reckon his showing last week plus having played against NZ this season could see Carbery get a call.

Payne is another one that probably stands out but I'm trying to see it from Gatland's perspective. He's a senior player, very good communicator, can play 13 or 15 to test level and has strong knowledge of NZ rugby having played for three of their Super Rugby teams. Ringrose unlucky to miss out. Could well be him instead of Joseph but I think Gatland will go for the more established player.

I think George will go ahead of Hartley

Agree with the props

Second row is one of the most competitive areas. Will Gatland pick Kruis even though he's been injured? The Gray brothers have slipped back quite a bit. Ryan must be in contention, Henderson is possible because of his versatility, but to be honest I'm not sure he is mobile enough to play 6 at test level so I think Ryan goes ahead of Henderson and the rest remains as you have it.

Agree with the back although POM definitely goes over Moriarty. Vunipola and Felatau play 8, and Stander can play there too.

Agree with your 9s, although I wouldn't be surprised if Laidlaw was selected for his leadership. I don't think Youngs is that much better than Laidlaw.

Sexton and Farrell travel as the 10s. Sorry, but the third 10 isn't going to be Carbery! I reckon it will be Biggar. Gatland knows him and will play his gameplan well. Ford won't be far away. Russell doesn't come into it for me, I'd actually pick Jackson before I'd pick Russell.

I don't see Payne going. I think Ringrose would go ahead of him, but I think Scott Williams will travel ahead of both, so Williams for Payne.

Agree with your back 3.

Buer

bilston wrote: »

Sexton and Farrell travel as the 10s. Sorry, but the third 10 isn't going to be Carbery! I reckon it will be Biggar. Gatland knows him and will play his gameplan well. Ford won't be far away. Russell doesn't come into it for me, I'd actually pick Jackson before I'd pick Russell.

I don't see Payne going. I think Ringrose would go ahead of him, but I think Scott Williams will travel ahead of both, so Williams for Payne.

My selection of Carbery is based on the idea that Gatland has two choices, select a third outhalf or select someone that can play outhalf but brings an option elsewhere. I think that's far from a clear choice for him. In 2013, he only brought two outhalves. I don't subscribe to this idea that Owen Farrell is now seen as a centre. He is an outhalf who can play centre and might well do for the Lions. That does not mean that he won't play outhalf for them. I guarantee that he starts at least one warm up game at outhalf if not two. He will also be the back up outhalf if he's a centre.

Again, I don't subscribe to the idea that there must be a bench outhalf if Farrell is playing 12. England never do it. Leinster don't do it. Munster didn't do it when they had Hanrahan starting at 12. It's standard practice to use the extra bench spot.

Truth be told, if I had to put money on it, I'd say George Ford will travel but where's the fun in that? I don't think Biggar has much hope. For context, Biggar was left at home in 2013 when he had led Wales to the Six Nations title. Gatland elected to play Stuart Hogg at outhalf instead of him. Biggar has been in patchy form recently (and outright poor form in the past fortnight) so I don't think he's getting the call.

If Gatland wants to play Farrell at 12, Ford getting the call as a third outhalf is a no brainer for me. If Sexton gets injured, not only can Farrell remain at 12 but he has his international colleague playing beside him and they resume their successful partnership.

The other choice is for him to do something like go with a utility player who can cover 10. This has been done in previous tours and I wouldn't rule it out. On that basis, I just threw Carbery in there because it's a shot in the dark and a bit of craic. Laidlaw would be another strong option as someone who could play 10 and I think I'd have him there ahead of Youngs if he had remained fit but I think injury has sunk his hopes. Sam Davies will be in the conversation too and is probably more likely given he has a handful of caps now and a bit of exposure.

He won't come into it but I think Jackson absolutely should be in consideration for the 3rd outhalf spot too. I would rate him around the same level as George Ford but without the opportunities to play consistently for his country nor to do so alongside a world class playmaker at 12.

Regarding Payne, I think he was on the plane if he had stayed fit. As it stands, he's in the mix. His versatility, experience and knowledge of NZ rugby will have him very close. I would say himself and Ringrose could be fighting for one spot between them. Things are very quiet regarding Payne's departure on Friday night. Is it just a bit of a bump or has he sustained an injury?

bilston

Buer wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Sexton and Farrell travel as the 10s. Sorry, but the third 10 isn't going to be Carbery! I reckon it will be Biggar. Gatland knows him and will play his gameplan well. Ford won't be far away. Russell doesn't come into it for me, I'd actually pick Jackson before I'd pick Russell.

I don't see Payne going. I think Ringrose would go ahead of him, but I think Scott Williams will travel ahead of both, so Williams for Payne.

My selection of Carbery is based on the idea that Gatland has two choices, select a third outhalf or select someone that can play outhalf but brings an option elsewhere. I think that's far from a clear choice for him. In 2013, he only brought two outhalves. I don't subscribe to this idea that Owen Farrell is now seen as a centre. He is an outhalf who can play centre and might well do for the Lions. That does not mean that he won't play outhalf for them. I guarantee that he starts at least one warm up game at outhalf if not two. He will also be the back up outhalf if he's a centre.

Again, I don't subscribe to the idea that there must be a bench outhalf if Farrell is playing 12. England never do it. Leinster don't do it. Munster didn't do it when they had Hanrahan starting at 12. It's standard practice to use the extra bench spot.

Truth be told, if I had to put money on it, I'd say George Ford will travel but where's the fun in that? I don't think Biggar has much hope. For context, Biggar was left at home in 2013 when he had led Wales to the Six Nations title. Gatland elected to play Stuart Hogg at outhalf instead of him. Biggar has been in patchy form recently (and outright poor form in the past fortnight) so I don't think he's getting the call.

If Gatland wants to play Farrell at 12, Ford getting the call as a third outhalf is a no brainer for me. If Sexton gets injured, not only can Farrell remain at 12 but he has his international colleague playing beside him and they resume their successful partnership.

The other choice is for him to do something like go with a utility player who can cover 10. This has been done in previous tours and I wouldn't rule it out. On that basis, I just threw Carbery in there because it's a shot in the dark and a bit of craic. Laidlaw would be another strong option as someone who could play 10 and I think I'd have him there ahead of Youngs if he had remained fit but I think injury has sunk his hopes. Sam Davies will be in the conversation too and is probably more likely given he has a handful of caps now and a bit of exposure.

He won't come into it but I think Jackson absolutely should be in consideration for the 3rd outhalf spot too. I would rate him around the same level as George Ford but without the opportunities to play consistently for his country nor to do so alongside a world class playmaker at 12.

Regarding Payne, I think he was on the plane if he had stayed fit. As it stands, he's in the mix. His versatility, experience and knowledge of NZ rugby will have him very close. I would say himself and Ringrose could be fighting for one spot between them. Things are very quiet regarding Payne's departure on Friday night. Is it just a bit of a bump or has he sustained an injury?

I forgot Biggar was left at home in 2013, yeah I could see Ford going. Ford and Jackson are similar players and similar standard, but one is first choice for the double 6Ns champions, the other lives in Sexton's shadow so clearly Ford is ahead in the pecking order.

Not sure about Payne, Ulster usually do an injury bulletin in the early part of the week so I guess we will hear tomorrow. He was walking around the pitch after the final whistle on Friday so hopefully it isn't too serious. I just think the fact he missed 80% of the 6Ns will cost him. He could be near the top of the queue of injury replacements though.

Former Former

bilston wrote: »

I forgot Biggar was left at home in 2013, yeah I could see Ford going. Ford and Jackson are similar players and similar standard, but one is first choice for the double 6Ns champions, the other lives in Sexton's shadow so clearly Ford is ahead in the pecking order.

Not sure about Payne, Ulster usually do an injury bulletin in the early part of the week so I guess we will hear tomorrow. He was walking around the pitch after the final whistle on Friday so hopefully it isn't too serious. I just think the fact he missed 80% of the 6Ns will cost him. He could be near the top of the queue of injury replacements though.

Word is that Payne has a sprained ankle so probably out for a few weeks, grand in time for Lions maybe.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Buer wrote: »

My selection of Carbery is based on the idea that Gatland has two choices, select a third outhalf or select someone that can play outhalf but brings an option elsewhere. I think that's far from a clear choice for him. In 2013, he only brought two outhalves. I don't subscribe to this idea that Owen Farrell is now seen as a centre. He is an outhalf who can play centre and might well do for the Lions. That does not mean that he won't play outhalf for them. I guarantee that he starts at least one warm up game at outhalf if not two. He will also be the back up outhalf if he's a centre.

Agreed regarding Farrell however if he is in the squad he will play a lot of minutes in the centre. So there needs to be more outhalf cover than last time.

swiwi_

Do you have to be officially eligible to play for one of the Home Nations to make the Lions? Or could someone like Bundee Aki be picked? I imagine it's the former, but is there actually an official list of selection criteria?

awec

swiwi_ wrote: »

Do you have to be officially eligible to play for one of the Home Nations to make the Lions? Or could someone like Bundee Aki be picked? I imagine it's the former, but is there actually an official list of selection criteria?

Have to be eligible to play for a home nation.

Erik Shin

I see Donal Lenihan is talking up POM and Sean Cronin's Lion's hope's..... Kiss ... Of .... Death

Buer

Erik Shin wrote: »

I see Donal Lenihan is talking up POM and Sean Cronin's Lion's hope's..... Kiss ... Of .... Death

POM is in the mix. Far from certain but he's a very different type of flanker to the likes of Stander, SOB, Tipuric and Warburton who are the others I expect to travel.

Cronin doesn't have much chance. I'd say he could profit in the event of an injury due to a lack of options at hooker but beyond that he's going to Japan. Essentially there are only really 4 in contention at hooker and one of those (Jamie George) has never started a test match.

If it was 12 months down the line, I'd say Niall Scannell would have a legitimate shout.

leakyboots

Gavin Wummiskey was up to his usual antics last night on OTB, he's some pain. Has Toner unlucky to not be travelling but next in line in the event of second row injury and thinks Sean Cronin could go but Gatty will opt for Best/George/Hartley. Also felt very strongly that ROM's try at the weekend should have been given, which boggles my mind anyway.

He did make a good point that Wales are touring down that part of the world at the same time so while fellas like Davies/Faletau mightn't be named in the initial squad they'll be next in line once the injuries pile up.

Buer

leakyboots wrote: »

He did make a good point that Wales are touring down that part of the world at the same time so while fellas like Davies/Faletau mightn't be named in the initial squad they'll be next in line once the injuries pile up.

I think you're rapidly developing a crush on Gavin.

Scotland, Wales and Ireland are all only one flight from Auckland and all in the a similar time zone. I don't think Wales being in Tonga/Samoa will have much bearing on call ups. If he calls them up, he'll have been planning to do so whether they were in Suva or Cape Town.

pickarooney

Buer wrote: »

I think you're rapidly developing a crush on Gavin.

Scotland, Wales and Ireland are all only one flight from Auckland and all in the a similar time zone. I don't think Wales being in Tonga/Samoa will have much bearing on call ups. If he calls them up, he'll have been planning to do so whether they were in Suva or Cape Town.

He hardly planned to call up Shane Williams and Tom Court last time!

leakyboots

Buer wrote: »

I think you're rapidly developing a crush on Gavin.

I know, my secret shame :pac: There's not much rugby analysis on the radio and it gives me ire in me hoop that this spoofer is allotted so much airtime.

If you listen to him weekly it's not hard to see through his bias/waffle.

diarmuidb24

I don't understand how he thought ROM's try at the weekend should have stood? Doesn't matter if you watch it in real time or in slow motion, there is a clear separation between his arm and the ball, and the only time he makes downward pressure is after the ball bounces off the ground and hits his arm then.
And don't get me started on his and luke fitzgeralds bull#### moaning about nigel owens!

Buer

pickarooney wrote: »

He hardly planned to call up Shane Williams and Tom Court last time!

No but they were actually in the country, nearby. They were both in the same city as the Lions when called.

I don't think proximity via another country is going to make a difference when one is a 6 hour flight away and one is a 12 hour flight away.

In 2013, Wales were in Japan and Scotland were in South Africa but not a single Welsh was called up as a replacement. Ryan Grant was called up from Scotland but that was before Scotland had played a game in South Africa. English guys who were in Argentina (Wade and Twelvetrees) and Zebo who was in the USA were selected. Or Brad Barritt who was back in England.

Unless it's just someone there on the doorstep to get them through a game, he'll call up who he thinks is the best person for the job.

stephen_n

leakyboots wrote: »

If you listen to him weekly it's not hard to see through his bias/waffle.

Surely the answer is don't listen to him then. What radio station is he on? Don't think I've heard him.

diarmuidb24

stephen_n wrote: »

Surely the answer is don't listen to him then. What radio station is he on? Don't think I've heard him.

For some stupid reason Off the ball on Newstalk bring him on every monday to talk about the weekend action

Former Former

Buer wrote: »

No but they were actually in the country, nearby. Williams was in the same city when called.

I don't think proximity via another country is going to make a difference when one is a 6 hour flight away and one is a 12 hour flight away.

In 2013, Wales were in Japan and Scotland were in South Africa but not a single Welsh was called up as a replacement. Ryan Grant was called up from Scotland but that was before Scotland had played a game in South Africa. English guys who were in Argentina (Wade and Twelvetrees) and Zebo who was in the USA were selected. Or Brad Barritt who was back in England.

Unless it's just someone there on the doorstep to get them through a game, he'll call up who he thinks is the best person for the job.

The Tonga v Wales game had to be moved to Auckland because the Tongan stadium isn't ready, so the Welsh lads will actually be on New Zealand soil.

Buer

Former Former wrote: »

The Tonga v Wales game had to be moved to Auckland because the Tongan stadium isn't ready, so the Welsh lads will actually be on New Zealand soil.

Well shut my mouth.