Lions 2017 [MOD WARNING IN OP]

awec

Former Former wrote: »

I'd be shocked if Henshaw didn't travel and I think he's in with a shout for the test side. There's no real outstanding candidate for 13.

I 100% think he will travel and he has a great chance at the 13 jersey.

If it comes to pass though it's pretty bizarre that the guy chosen as the best 13 in the home nations can't get a game for his own team there. It's pretty hard to argue that he should play 13 for the Lions and then argue that he should play anywhere other than 13 for Ireland.

AbusesToilets

awec wrote: »

I 100% think he will travel and he has a great chance at the 13 jersey.

If it comes to pass though it's pretty bizarre that the guy chosen as the best 13 in the home nations can't get a game for his own team there. It's pretty hard to argue that he should play 13 for the Lions and then argue that he should play anywhere other than 13 for Ireland.

I'd say he might be in with a better shout to play 13 next season for Ireland if Olding can stay healthy.

Podge_irl

awec wrote: »

I 100% think he will travel and he has a great chance at the 13 jersey.

If it comes to pass though it's pretty bizarre that the guy chosen as the best 13 in the home nations can't get a game for his own team there. It's pretty hard to argue that he should play 13 for the Lions and then argue that he should play anywhere other than 13 for Ireland.

It's not that hard to argue. He could be both our best 12 and best 13 and it could be decided that Henshaw-Ringrose is a stronger partnership than e.g. Olding-Henshaw. He could end up at 13 for the Lions because they have access to better 12s, it doesn't have to be any more complicated.

Former Former

awec wrote: »

I 100% think he will travel and he has a great chance at the 13 jersey.

If it comes to pass though it's pretty bizarre that the guy chosen as the best 13 in the home nations can't get a game for his own team there. It's pretty hard to argue that he should play 13 for the Lions and then argue that he should play anywhere other than 13 for Ireland.

It's not that he can't get a game at 13, it's just that the team is better served with him at 12.

So for Ireland; 12. Henshaw 13. Payne/Ringrose is a better midfield than 12. AN Other 13. Henshaw because we don't have anyone of the required quality*.

Likewise, for Leinster, 12. Henshaw 13. Ringrose >>>> 12. Reid 13. Henshaw.

It's exactly the same as the "is Stander better at 6 or 8" or "is Payne better at 13 or 15" questions - it doesn't really matter because the team is better served with them at 6 and 13 respectively.

*we don't have anyone of the required quality YET. Olding looks like the man most likely to step up but his game needs work, Scannell is a prospect and of course, Aki is coming down the tracks - but right now, we don't.

Buer

AbusesToilets wrote:

I'd say he might be in with a better shout to play 13 next season for Ireland if Olding can stay healthy.

Olding really needs to improve his performances first and foremost. He shouldn't be near an Irish 23 at the moment even if fit.

bilston

AbusesToilets wrote: »

awec wrote: »

I 100% think he will travel and he has a great chance at the 13 jersey.

If it comes to pass though it's pretty bizarre that the guy chosen as the best 13 in the home nations can't get a game for his own team there. It's pretty hard to argue that he should play 13 for the Lions and then argue that he should play anywhere other than 13 for Ireland.

I'd say he might be in with a better shout to play 13 next season for Ireland if Olding can stay healthy.

Feck, after Saturday Olding needs to learn how to catch a fecking rugby ball. I've always been a big fan of his but he has really failed to kick on this season, in fact I'd say he has gone backwards, I'd probably have Scannell over him at the minute. That said it's hopefully a form thing and he can bounce back sooner rather than later,

.ak

awec wrote: »

I 100% think he will travel and he has a great chance at the 13 jersey.

If it comes to pass though it's pretty bizarre that the guy chosen as the best 13 in the home nations can't get a game for his own team there. It's pretty hard to argue that he should play 13 for the Lions and then argue that he should play anywhere other than 13 for Ireland.

My point still stands; needs must and our needs at 12 are greater than 13.

The Lions don't need him at 12 because they've a load of options there, we don't.

bilston

As for the Irish Lions, I reckon we'll get anything between 7 and 11

Certs
Furlong
Stander
Murray
Sexton

Almost Certs
McGrath
Henshaw

Probable
Best

So it would be surprising if any of those seven failed to get picked.

In with a shot
O'Mahony
Healy
Toner
Ryan
Henderson
O'Brien
Ringrose
Earls
Zebo

Potential surprises
Cronin
Carbery

Unlikely
Heaslip
Payne (could see him getting a call up later on)
Trimble
Kearney

.ak

Feel terrible for Healy when you look at it in context; the guy was probably the best loosehead in the world last time they traveled, picked up an absolutely horrible injury and I felt at the time it's rotten luck but he'll back for the next tour... and now here we are, and he's struggling to get back to form. Think that was probably the injury that started it all.

Buer

I assume people are completely forgetting that the starting 12 in the last tour was playing solely at 13 for his club and country?

bilston

.ak wrote: »

Feel terrible for Healy when you look at it in context; the guy was probably the best loosehead in the world last time they traveled, picked up an absolutely horrible injury and I felt at the time it's rotten luck but he'll back for the next tour... and now here we are, and he's struggling to get back to form. Think that was probably the injury that started it all.

You would obviously have seen him more than me but anytime I've watched him for Leinster recently or even in his 6Ns cameos he has been looking closer to his old self than at any point in the past couple of years. Assuming McGrath and Vunipola are going, Healy must at least be in the conversation for the 3rd LH spot, assuming Gatland picks three from each side of the scrum.

Synode

I'd agree. Healy has been getting better and better the last year or so. He's very unlucky that McGrath emerged while he was coming back from injury/out of form

AbusesToilets

bilston wrote: »

You would obviously have seen him more than me but anytime I've watched him for Leinster recently or even in his 6Ns cameos he has been looking closer to his old self than at any point in the past couple of years. Assuming McGrath and Vunipola are going, Healy must at least be in the conversation for the 3rd LH spot, assuming Gatland picks three from each side of the scrum.

Is Vunipolo actually a top scrummager? I've not watched him a huge amount, but I've the impression he's hyped more for his carrying than his prop work.

bilston

bilston wrote: »

You would obviously have seen him more than me but anytime I've watched him for Leinster recently or even in his 6Ns cameos he has been looking closer to his old self than at any point in the past couple of years. Assuming McGrath and Vunipola are going, Healy must at least be in the conversation for the 3rd LH spot, assuming Gatland picks three from each side of the scrum.

Healy is looking a lot better, but he is also looking like someone who is having his game time carefully managed by club and country and if that's the case then there must be a belief that he could break down at any time.

Guess work on my part so I would't read into it, but there have been a few occasions where he has been rested despite not having significant game time and instance where he should have started but was benched instead and it's formed a bit of a picture in my mind.

People are dramatically undervaluing Henshaw at inside. He isn't lightning fast but he is powerful. He is a very strong tackler and a capable jackler. He can play 13 but I think his assets are a total natural for 12. He has terrific hands and a skillful offload but I'm not sure he has excellent natural distribution.

I'm not sure Ringrose is the answer to any of this either. He is very quick and reads the game well but he may not have as good a passing game and I've no idea if he is better at running a defensive line beyond midfield.

I think the biggest problem Henshaw has in the coming 12 months is Aki qualifying and I suspect he'll end up moving into fullback as a result (though I'm not convinced he has the pace for this).

Synode

Synode wrote: »

I'd agree. Healy has been getting better and better the last year or so. He's very unlucky that McGrath emerged while he was coming back from injury/out of form

I think he was lucky actually. It took pressure off him getting back prematurely as there were alternatives available. As a team player you feel your absences badly and knowing there is someone else doing a job is quite cathartic. Short term injuries are different and more contentious, but Healy didn't know if he was going to play again at one stage and I'd say he was glad there were lads coming through that could pick the ball up.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Deleted User wrote: »

I think he was lucky actually. It took pressure off him getting back prematurely as there were alternatives available. As a team player you feel your absences badly and knowing there is someone else doing a job is quite cathartic. Short term injuries are different and more contentious, but Healy didn't know if he was going to play again at one stage and I'd say he was glad there were lads coming through that could pick the ball up.

Honestly I think Healey would have been retired if McGrath hadn't come through.

The reason I am saying that is that he would have been rushed back a few times and forced to pay more games.

Remember he is a Prop so there will always be 2 loose heads in any 23. It's a bit different to say a fullback where there might be only one in a squad.

Clegg

BBC Sport says Joe Launchbury and Jonathan Joseph are set to miss out on Lions selection. One of Kruis, Lawes or Ryan will be selected instead and it's most likely Jonathan Davies in instead of Joseph.

Would be a compete farce of a selection of true. Launch is world class and Davies hasn't been in good form for over a year.

Clegg

Deleted User wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

I think the biggest problem Henshaw has in the coming 12 months is Aki qualifying and I suspect he'll end up moving into fullback as a result (though I'm not convinced he has the pace for this).

Henshaw has been one of Ireland's best players since 2015. He'll be our starting inside centre for the next decade. He has nothing to worry about. I wouldn't move him from the centre and i don't think he'll even be considered for 15. I think we're underestimating how much Ringrose has improved this season too. On this season's form he's well ahead of Olding, Marshall, McCloskey and even Aki.

irishbucsfan

Clegg wrote: »

BBC Sport says Joe Launchbury and Jonathan Joseph are set to miss out on Lions selection.

From that article

With Alun Wyn Jones and Maro Itoje certainties to make the touring party, Launchbury is believed to have slipped below compatriots George Kruis and Courtney Lawes in the Lions pecking order, while Gatland is understood to be a supporter of the Irishman Donnacha Ryan.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/39624348

Juicy

Buer

Joseph I can fully understand being left out but Launchbury was the best lock in the 6N comfortably.

bilston

Chris Jones on 5 Live saying 14-15 Englishmen and confirming Launchbury and Joseph likely to miss out. Also sounds like Te'o is in.

Surprised about Launchbury.

bilston

Joseph missing out would enhance Ringrose's chances but then it sounds like Te'o will go.

Centres looking like

Henshaw, Davies, S.Williams and Te'o with Farrell as a 10/12. Elliot Daly as a 13/11/14/15 would possibly complete the midfield selection.

irishbucsfan

Maybe Te'o ahead of Henshaw!? Someone is going to be very upset...

bilston

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Maybe Te'o ahead of Henshaw!? Someone is going to be very upset...

Well Chris Jones on the radio did say there would upset England players/fans and maybe upset Ireland players/fans. He reckoned 2-4 Scots and 10/11 Welsh. You suspect Wales may do well from the squad selection and that must raise a bit of debate!

Apparently the coaches meet tomorrow so there may still be some changes.

Clegg

There's zero chance of Henshaw being cut for Te'o.

Upset Irish reference could refer to Best not making it.

Former Former

Launchbury would be an incredible omission. He is the second best lock in the championship, I would only rate AWJ higher.

irishbucsfan

bilston wrote: »

Well Chris Jones on the radio did say there would upset England players/fans and maybe upset Ireland players/fans. He reckoned 2-4 Scots and 10/11 Welsh. You suspect Wales may do well from the squad selection and that must raise a bit of debate!

Apparently the coaches meet tomorrow so there may still be some changes.

If its 10/11 Welsh and 14/15 English and 2/4 Scottish then that means.. what, 10 or so Irish players?

bilston

irishbucsfan wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Well Chris Jones on the radio did say there would upset England players/fans and maybe upset Ireland players/fans. He reckoned 2-4 Scots and 10/11 Welsh. You suspect Wales may do well from the squad selection and that must raise a bit of debate!

Apparently the coaches meet tomorrow so there may still be some changes.

If its 10/11 Welsh and 14/15 English and 2/4 Scottish then that means.. what, 10 or so Irish players?

That's what he said about Ireland and to be fair 10 or so is about right. I'm not sure collectively Wales would deserve 10/11 players though but then they did beat us in the 6Ns.

Off the top of my head the Welsh players could be Owens, AWJ, Warburton, Tipuric, Faletau, Webb, S.Williams, Davies, L.Williams and North. That's 10 and you couldn't really be outraged about any of those calls. Halfpenny and Biggar are the two big borderline Welsh calls.

Former Former

Of the Welsh, I think AWJ, Tipuric, Warburton, Webb, North and Liam Williams are nailed on. After that, there's Owens, Faletau, J Davies and Halfpenny as probables and Biggar, Scott Williams, Charteris, Moriarty and Sam Davies as outside bets, so Wales could reach 11 handy enough.

Buer

If you want one that might cause outrage, I reckon Jamie Roberts isn't out of the picture. He has lost his starting spot for Wales this 6N but was still starting under Gatland last summer in NZ before he went on sabbatical.

I'm still convinced there's going to be a couple of calls that will leave most scrathing their heads.

EDIT: I'd move Owens and Halfpenny into the nailed on category, FF. Owens completely deserves it and has a great chance of being the test hooker. Halfpenny simply won't be left out. It would be a bigger shock than him dropping BOD, in my opinion.