Lions 2017 [MOD WARNING IN OP]

English Lurker

Former Former wrote: »

Well, then you're all on notice that I'm going to lose my sh*t.

Like, his form is rubbish, has been for a while and his goal-kicking is not as good as either Farrell or Sexton, one of whom (and very probably both) will be in the Test team.

In Hogg, Williams, Kearney, Brown and Daly there is no shortage of full backs.

What do you base this on? Halfpenny has better recent international form than either (well, Sexton has little recent international form to be fair), a longer range, and probably better career international kicking stats.

Deleted User wrote: »

Wales were 2 minutes away from beating England and were beating France at 80 minutes. They had a bad day against the Scots much like us but I think their table finish whilst the exact location where the buck stops, is not a full reflection on where they currently are.

Wales have been 2 minutes away from beating a lot of teams! I'd say losing another couple of matches at the death represents exactly where they are; bottom of the home nations pile. The biggest question mark about that has nothing to do with Wales, its about whether Scotland can maintain their improvement.

Podge_irl

English Lurker wrote: »

What do you base this on? Halfpenny has better recent international form than either (well, Sexton has little recent international form to be fair), a longer range, and probably better career international kicking stats.

Define recent?

Sexton just came out of the 6N with a 100% kicking record.

In fact, I'm sure someone else remembers where it is offhand, but there was a study of NH kickers which ranked Sexton near or at number 1 in the pro era. Halfpenny is just not necessary for his kicking skills - he needs to bring something as a pure FB

.ak

I'd probably bring Halfpenny over RK, but they're both brilliant players and will add to the team if picked.

Stuart Hogg's jersey to lose though really.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Podge_irl wrote: »

Define recent?

Sexton just came out of the 6N with a 100% kicking record.

In fact, I'm sure someone else remembers where it is offhand, but there was a study of NH kickers which ranked Sexton near or at number 1 in the pro era. Halfpenny is just not necessary for his kicking skills - he needs to bring something as a pure FB

People always get in their head that Johnny can't kick.

Ever since the ROG vs Sexton days.

Korat

Forget H/P he's got nothing to offer if Farrell is playing. Hogg is a Cristian Cullen like weapon against the ABs if used correctly. €

AbusesToilets

Think L Williams is the best of the lot, stronger in defense than Hogg and just as dynamic going forward.

CatFromHue

I'm still not sold on L Williams tbh

Shamrock841

I can see O'Mahony travelling and maybe even working his way onto a test side

A.W Jones, Itoje and O'Mahony would be some lineout to be up against, deffensive and attacking

Dog Botherer

Halfpenny is a better winger than fullback, and he's a fairly mediocre winger. Outstanding goalkicker, but he brings very little else to the table. Sexton, Farrell, and Biggar are all just as good or better, albeit with a slightly shorter range, and it's possible all 3 of them could be in a Lions 23.

Shamrock841

Dog Botherer wrote: »

Halfpenny is a better winger than fullback, and he's a fairly mediocre winger. Outstanding goalkicker, but he brings very little else to the table. Sexton, Farrell, and Biggar are all just as good or better, albeit with a slightly shorter range, and it's possible all 3 of them could be in a Lions 23.

Daly will be there for the long range kicks if needed!

Zzippy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm surprised Moriarty doesn't get a mention in despatches. I know the back row has plenty of options but I thought he had a good 6N.

Self praise is no praise!

Synode

Korat wrote: »

The only surprise was Scotland and while they got walloped by England I think their representation in the Lions will have to reflect the fact they beat a heavily fancied Irish team and Wales in Cardiff.

The Scotland Wales game was in Edinburgh

English Lurker

Podge_irl wrote: »

Define recent?

Sexton just came out of the 6N with a 100% kicking record.

In fact, I'm sure someone else remembers where it is offhand, but there was a study of NH kickers which ranked Sexton near or at number 1 in the pro era. Halfpenny is just not necessary for his kicking skills - he needs to bring something as a pure FB

Off of 7 kicks. 7 kicks isn't form. I think he only took 7 kicks in the Autumn too?

http://linebreakrugby.com/2016/06/rugby-kicking-stats/ - I believe this study is what you're referring to? That is all kicks ever - which I do not believe relevant to international rugby, where the extra pressure affects players differently - and doesn't take into account the difficulty of kicks, unlike goalkickers.co.za and its rankings. Goalkickers isn't as well updated as I like but if you go to "All" and "All", Halfpenny comes out top of the rankings. If you go to statbunker and look at their international stats, Sexton has 79.92, Farrell has 82.3, and Halfpenny has 85.89.

Now, I'm not saying "Halfpenny is the greatest and we must have him!" Its a fair point of view that we don't need his goalkicking with other goalkickers in the side, although I think people are underestimating just how safe he is at the back and how valuable a trait that is.

But if someone wants to say Halfpenny is a worse goalkicker than Sexton and Farrell, I'm curious as to why as the stats say the opposite at international level.


And I'm still amazed anyone would want Farrell in their side if they've got another goalkicker tbh.

Korat

POM is in the Lions squad unless he does something mad like Quinny in '09.

Korat

Synode wrote: »

The Scotland Wales game was in Edinburgh

Touché

Steal the Scottish thunder?

Playing the Welsh on the back of that was never going to be easy.

Bazzo

English Lurker wrote: »

Off of 7 kicks. 7 kicks isn't form. I think he only took 7 kicks in the Autumn too?

http://linebreakrugby.com/2016/06/rugby-kicking-stats/ - I believe this study is what you're referring to? That is all kicks ever - which I do not believe relevant to international rugby, where the extra pressure affects players differently - and doesn't take into account the difficulty of kicks, unlike goalkickers.co.za and its rankings. Goalkickers isn't as well updated as I like but if you go to "All" and "All", Halfpenny comes out top of the rankings. If you go to statbunker and look at their international stats, Sexton has 79.92, Farrell has 82.3, and Halfpenny has 85.89.

Now, I'm not saying "Halfpenny is the greatest and we must have him!" Its a fair point of view that we don't need his goalkicking with other goalkickers in the side, although I think people are underestimating just how safe he is at the back and how valuable a trait that is.

But if someone wants to say Halfpenny is a worse goalkicker than Sexton and Farrell, I'm curious as to why as the stats say the opposite at international level.


And I'm still amazed anyone would want Farrell in their side if they've got another goalkicker tbh.

Since the beginning of the 14/15 season Sexton's strike rate is 81/96 kicks in internationals only, putting him at 84.4% while Halfpenny is at 81/95 kicks in internationals only, putting him at 85.3% with virtually the same amount of kicking done.

CMOTDibbler

Bazzo wrote: »

Since the beginning of the 14/15 season Sexton's strike rate is 81/96 kicks in internationals only, putting him at 84.4% while Halfpenny is at 81/95 kicks in internationals only, putting him at 85.3% with virtually the same amount of kicking done.

I don't know if it really matters whether you include club stats or not. Since it's a like for like comparison, a one or two percent difference (probably even more tbh) is hardly significant when forecasting a three test accuracy rate.

In other words, an 80% kicker will get 16/20 and a 90% kicker will get 18/20. If your comparison is between 83% and 85% or 87% and 89% it's not going to mean diddly squat which one you pick.

English Lurker

Bazzo wrote: »

Since the beginning of the 14/15 season Sexton's strike rate is 81/96 kicks in internationals only, putting him at 84.4% while Halfpenny is at 81/95 kicks in internationals only, putting him at 85.3% with virtually the same amount of kicking done.

Since 14/15 is hardly recent form but, quibble aside, I'd say that merely backs up my point that someone saying Halfpenny is a worse goal kicker than Sexton or Farrell has some explaining to do.

Bazzo

English Lurker wrote: »

Since 14/15 is hardly recent form but, quibble aside, I'd say that merely backs up my point that someone saying Halfpenny is a worse goal kicker than Sexton or Farrell has some explaining to do.

Well you were comparing their "all time" stats no? I'd argue that the last 3 years is more recent than the last 7 or whatever :P

I think the point people were making is that a lot of the reason Halfpenny is considered is because of his reputation for having a phenomenol boot, but in fact his kicking is not significantly better than other players. He does have slightly longer range but then again so do Hogg and Daly. He's a safe pair of hands at full back but I think he offers basically nothing going forward and with his kicking not really needed I think you have to look at players like Williams or Hogg there instead.

Former Former

Oh my. Perhaps a better wording would have been "Halfpenny is no better a kicker than Farrell or Sexton". My point is that his goalkicking adds no value so he must be considered purely on his merits as a full back, and on that basis I'd have him well down the list.

English Lurker

Bazzo wrote: »

Well you were comparing their "all time" stats no? I'd argue that the last 3 years is more recent than the last 7 or whatever :P

I think the point people were making is that a lot of the reason Halfpenny is considered is because of his reputation for having a phenomenol boot, but in fact his kicking is not significantly better than other players. He does have slightly longer range but then again so do Hogg and Daly. He's a safe pair of hands at full back but I think he offers basically nothing going forward and with his kicking not really needed I think you have to look at players like Williams or Hogg there instead.

Oh fair enough, I'd been talking about both all time and very recent originally, so I thought you were referring to that.

And that's a fair enough point and one I was never arguing against. Merely the idea that he's a worse goal kicker, which was an argument presented.

Korat

English Lurker wrote: »

Oh fair enough, I'd been talking about both all time and very recent originally, so I thought you were referring to that.

And that's a fair enough point and one I was never arguing against. Merely the idea that he's a worse goal kicker, which was an argument presented.

Through an English filter that means : "When are we going for pints?"

Through an Irish English filter that means "Faaking ell Paddy, tura, lura, lura, wen are we goin for faakin points?"

CIARAN_BOYLE

Bazzo wrote: »

Well you were comparing their "all time" stats no? I'd argue that the last 3 years is more recent than the last 7 or whatever :P

All time stats on goalkeepers appear to have been last updated on 18 May 2014. Mind you they also say that Jackson has kicked 62 scores in his international career (he has kicked 65) so I can't see how the 2014 date is relevant.

Erik Shin

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

All time stats on goalkeepers appear to have been last updated on 18 May 2014. Mind you they also say that Jackson has kicked 62 scores in his international career (he has kicked 65) so I can't see how the 2014 date is relevant.

Is there any chance they'll bring Shay Given?

DDC1990

If Peter O'Mahoney makes the squad, I'd love to see him as captain of the midweek side. Would be an incredible motivator and leader on the field.

Not sure if he will make it on the back of one game though. A big performance against Toulouse and he has a great chance.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Erik Shin wrote: »

Is there any chance they'll bring Shay Given?

**** it.

I give up I am no longer using my mobile devices to post anything on this forum.

Podge_irl

English Lurker wrote: »

Oh fair enough, I'd been talking about both all time and very recent originally, so I thought you were referring to that.

And that's a fair enough point and one I was never arguing against. Merely the idea that he's a worse goal kicker, which was an argument presented.

Fair enough, I wouldn't go down the road of claiming they're necessarily better than Halfpenny. I would say that his goal-kicking, if better, is not sufficiently so to warrant much consideration as a reason to be selected at full back (which I'm pretty sure was the original point).

He should be selected purely on his merits as a full back because his goal kicking simply isn't needed.

Buer

Podge_irl wrote: »

He should be selected purely on his merits as a full back because his goal kicking simply isn't needed.

It's not but I still think it's going to get him at least one test cap. If he's in the team, he's the goal kicker and I don't see much wrong with that. He has done it before for the Lions and that will be a factor in the minds of the selectors. If there's a 75th minute penalty from 40m out wide, they'd want Halfpenny taking that more than Sexton or Farrell based on what he has done before.

I wouldn't even rule him out playing on the wing as we saw in the autumn when Gatland moved him there for the game against Japan to get a look at Williams at 15.

I think the wing selection is going to be extremely interesting in terms of who gets on the plane and who is left out. There were 7 players brought for the back 3 last time around with only 4 wingers being included along with 3 full backs.

I think Hogg is guaranteed as is Halfpenny. I reckon Liam Williams and North are both on the plane. That gives us 3 more spots. I reckon Daly has done enough at this point.

That leaves us with 2 spots between Kearney, Brown, Earls, Zebo, Seymour, Maitland, Nowell and Watson I think.

I'd say Daly or Payne (if selected) will provide the third full back option so I don't think Kearney or Brown will be in the mix unless there's an injury. I wouldn't bet against any of the others featuring though. Personally I'd look to bring Earls and Watson. Watson would be a gamble but he's the only one I see there as having the real star quality to be in the test team if he gets full fit and back to where he was for the year before his injury.

Podge_irl

Buer wrote: »

It's not but I still think it's going to get him at least one test cap. If he's in the team, he's the goal kicker and I don't see much wrong with that.

Nor do I as long as that is the logical progression. "He's the goal kicker so he's in the team" would be pretty awful logic to my mind.

I think he has a reasonable chance of getting a test at some point but that would be as much to do with no standout 15 candidate being around as anything else. Hogg offers a lot more going forward but I don't really trust him defensively at all. Kearney is Kearney and Brown is not really showing much.

CMOTDibbler

Buer wrote: »

It's not but I still think it's going to get him at least one test cap. If he's in the team, he's the goal kicker and I don't see much wrong with that. He has done it before for the Lions and that will be a factor in the minds of the selectors. If there's a 75th minute penalty from 40m out wide, they'd want Halfpenny taking that more than Sexton or Farrell based on what he has done before.

He kicked for the Lions when Sexton was going through a poor enough spell at goal-kicking. That's long in the past now. The last kick he took in the game against England was from 51m according to the commentary team.