Price Changes 2016/2017 - OP updated 15/12/16

km79

So any changes ?

machiavellianme

No one up.
Pied, lingard, Jones, hernandez down.

iroced

@machiavellanme:

Thought crack the code started earlier (found a 09-10 thread => http://fiso.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=62623&sid=4d78614996f6ab1702dcad402d43e3c2) but won't nitpick for one season.

fiso may be responsible for FPL to stop giving prizes to the most valuable teams 'cause they found it became too easy, I don't know. Anyway fiso did not make your strategy impossible to use nor less effective. You just can't get any direct prize for it anymore.

machiavellianme wrote: »

By announcing price changes in advance, many more players would pay active attention to that part of the game (regardless of what you think) and erode the point of my strategy. It's the same as when a player is flagged and transfered out in their droves (like Aguero has been).

You don't know that. You seem to suppose that if we knew precisely who were going to rise or fall, we'll all transfer in or out players to build team value regardless of the amount of hits we'd take or of the inherent risk of early transfers.
And comparing it with flagging is far fetched in my view. When a player is flagged people transfer him out 'cause they know he won't play and thus won't return points. It is particularly true for Agüero who's taking a significant part of anyone's budget. When a player is about to rise or drop, not everyone jumps on it. They still may rate a falling player. They may want to see more from a rising player. They may not be convince a premium player (e.g. Sanchez this week) will be as valuable this season than he was in previous ones. etc... etc... I see no reason why they'd change this attitude if they knew exactly about the players rising or falling.

machiavellianme wrote: »

If it were horse racing, what we have is much like the current system. Punters learn all the variables and react accordingly, thereby influencing price. It allows opportune punters to place a bet at the optimal price but in doing so influences it for others. When a favourite emerges (because it is most likely to return in the eyes of the players) the price responds accordingly. I don't think anyone would bet if the results of a race were known in advance because the price would be prohibitive. The same with FPL. If you know how much a player will cost in the future, it is driven by response to the variables of the game. If its a higher price it's likely because that player is returning higher points or has the potential to. Others will see this and jump on the bandwagon so you end up with template teams due to price watching.

Sorry but this makes no sense to me. You're still comparing apples with oranges in my view. Because if in horse racing it is important to bet at the optimal prize to optimise your gains, in FPL it is not that critical to get in players at the best price. So your strategy will be valid and achievale anyway. There will always be performing cheapies that people will be happy to take in place of a premium player they'd "sacrifice" for not building team value as you do. And getting in players late sometimes turns out to be an advantage, giving you more flexibility to sell if necessary. We see that every season and we already know quite well about price changes.

And what you're saying about template teams is a bit of a myth in my view. If I take my own example, it's my 7th season playing. The price change system at least changed 4 times. Prediction sites are doing well roughly with the same accuracy each year. Do we have more template teams now because people got used to prediction sites and follow them a lot? No. This forum or FFS are a lot more influential for building templates.

So granted there may be a significant diff between 2004 and now but definitely not from 2010. The only season that was a bit different was the one 3 years ago where they removed weighting factors and price changes were happening quicker. It actually favoured players like you. I remember you posted a huge team value in the second part of the season and were the only one to be able to afford all premium players without weakening your team elsewhere. I'm sure it'd have been the same had we known exactly about price changes. That season was actually maybe the one where the price predictions sites had it the most accurate. So again I don't see why you're so sure FPL running price changes would ruin your strategy

FHFC even wrote a paper about the myths around price changes and taking hits (e.g. popular belief, even carried by dedicated FPL sites, that less hits is good/better).

We'll probably have to agree to disagree on the matter but I think you're far over-exaggerating the consequences of such a "never going to happen anyway" change.

NoviGlitzko

Anyone know if Negredo will go up again in this GW?

km79

NoviGlitzko wrote: »

Anyone know if Negredo will go up again in this GW?

http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/Home/IndexAndroid

Ziegler1988

Risers : Cazorla

Fallers : Mertesacker, Townsend, A.King, Schweinsteiger, Allen, Ki Sung-Yueng

greedygoblin

Up:
Cazorla

Down:


Ki Sung-yueng
Schweinsteiger
Allen
King
Townsend
Mertesacker

shineon23

greedygoblin wrote: »

Down:


Townsend

*Family flowers only please.*

greedygoblin

shineon23 wrote: »

*Family flowers only please.*

He held on a long time.

Now Spacecraft, punish all them unbelievers on Saturday please!

Can somebody post a link here, to a page that updates daily, with the price movers ?

greedygoblin

Deleted User wrote: »

Can somebody post a link here, to a page that updates daily, with the price movers ?

http://fplstatistics.com/Home/Events

http://crackthecode.fiso.co.uk/blog/price-changes/

greedygoblin

greedygoblin wrote: »

http://fplstatistics.com/Home/Events

http://crackthecode.fiso.co.uk/blog/price-changes/

Thanks. Will take my turn to update here as the time zone suits.

Father Hernandez

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Risers : Cazorla

Fallers : Mertesacker, Townsend, A.King, Schweinsteiger, Allen, Ki Sung-Yueng

Foster still hasn't risen??? :eek:

Mr.Prodston

greedygoblin wrote: »

Down:


Townsend

Spacecraft will soar again

jimmii

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Thanks. Will take my turn to update here as the time zone suits.

Take the chance to get things back to how they were last season. We needs lot of Mick and some well chosen gifs that's what this thread is really about.

OneColdHand

jimmii wrote: »

Take the chance to get things back to how they were last season. We needs lot of Mick and some well chosen gifs that's what this thread is really about.

Micks or gtfo!

jimmii

jimmii wrote: »

Take the chance to get things back to how they were last season. We needs lot of Mick and some well chosen gifs that's what this thread is really about.

Well considering I don't know what a gif is I'd imagine you'll be very disappointed.

jimmii

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well considering I don't know what a gif is I'd imagine you'll be very disappointed.

Its the little video clips like you see above. These are vital.

jimmii

OneColdHand wrote: »

Micks or gtfo!

The more the better obviously the lack of plural was merely oversight!

MR NINE

Out of curiosity, what are people's guesstimations over who will rise first out of Sterling & Costa? Sterling is currently ahead but Costa is being transferred in at a higher rate. I'm hoping to hold Sterling for his second rise of the gw and then transfer him out and use the funds to buy costa before he rises.

(I'm aware costa has already risen 0.1, i foolishly missed the boat on that rise)

alchemist33

How does one post a gif*? I've tried and failed a couple of times and couldn't find the answer elsewhere.











* this does not necessarily mean I'll be up at 2.30 am posting Mick gifs.

greedygoblin

Go to "insert image" when you go to create a new post. A pop-up appears asking you to insert the url of your chosen image (this can be got by right-clicking on your chosen gif from google images or wherever and selecting "copy image location"). And that should be it!

Porthallian

Anyone have an opinion on Aguero's chances of dropping again this week?

iroced

Porthallian wrote: »

Anyone have an opinion on Aguero's chances of dropping again this week?

He's only on -15.1% (FPLstats) now.
He may not go down again. It'll all depend on Friday night casual panick when they'll see his red flag.

alchemist33

greedygoblin wrote: »

Go to "insert image" when you go to create a new post. A pop-up appears asking you to insert the url of your chosen image (this can be got by right-clicking on your chosen gif from google images or wherever and selecting "copy image location"). And that should be it!

Invincible

Riser:

Ozil


Fallers:

Darmian
Henderson
Ings
Iwobi
Klaven
Loftus-Cheek
Mkhitaryan
Rhodes
Sobhi

machiavellianme

Surprised at ozil rising. Both fix and fplstats had him around 92% at 10pm.
Valencia and foster were above the 100% mark but didn't move. Odd.

SlickRic

machiavellianme wrote: »

Surprised at ozil rising. Both fix and fplstats had him around 92% at 10pm.
Valencia and foster were above the 100% mark but didn't move. Odd.

Brought Ozil in last night just in case. I'm not taking chances on players I actually want in my team after my WC.

manual_man

Friend reset to 0% on fplstats after his flag was removed. Had been very close to a drop. Nice

machiavellianme

What a good Friend!

Shedite27

manual_man wrote: »

Friend reset to 0% on fplstats after his flag was removed. Had been very close to a drop. Nice

bezuaua

Any clue on significant risers/fallers tonight?

km79

bezuaua wrote: »

Any clue on significant risers/fallers tonight?

http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/Home/IndexAndroid

Status at half two..

Scorpion Sting

Up: Defoe



Down: Mahrez, Sigurdsson, Zaha, Gradel, Ighalo, Afobe, Gündogan, Sané, Rojo, Haugaard, Akpom

Iused2likebusts

Will foster ever go up.He has been over 100% all week.

km79

glad I got Defoe in last night

Father Hernandez

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Will foster ever go up.He has been over 100% all week.

He's been playing us the last 2 weeks or so !!! Every time I log in he's due to rise then the next day boom nothing !!

mectavba

It's a strange one re Foster...I can't imagine many people using their transfers on goalkeepers since the start of the season other than on wildcards. There has been no surprises/injuries/suspensions at all on the goalkeeper front, so why waste a transfer/take a hit?

I guess there must have been movement from people to Foster from the premium keepers to free up funds.

Iused2likebusts

off to bed if foster, sterling and costa could go up tonight that would be great.

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

off to bed if foster, sterling and costa could go up tonight that would be great.

Suspect the latter 2 will along with Hazard. Foster is a bit of a rogue to date so anyones guess. Suspect the problem being that that's a mainly wildcard transfer in the week that's in it.

shineon23

OneColdHand wrote: »

Every morning I wake up hoping Mick McCarthy has been incorporated into the price changes thread!

RossieMan wrote: »

I die a little without Mick telling me who's gone up or down.

jimmii wrote: »

Take the chance to get things back to how they were last season. We needs lot of Mick and some well chosen gifs that's what this thread is really about.

OneColdHand wrote: »

Micks or gtfo!

Up:
Foster,
A. Valencia,
Costa,
Hazard,
Benteke


Down:
Grujic
Gudmundsson
Brunt
Alli
T. Carroll
Khazri
Austin
Long
Tadic
Reed
Yoshida
Downing
Schneiderlin
Young
Depay
P. Jones
Smalling
Moreno
Fuchs
Lennon
Deulofeu
Cleverley
Wickham
Cabaye
Mutch
Kelly
Fàbregas
Ibe
Surman


Don't fear Mick is always watching even when he fails to announce himself

CSF

Benteke rising was a disappointing surprise. Had him earmarked to come in once the Costa double rise came through. I'm still bringing him in but obviously that Costa .1 will be going on Benteke now.

Scorpion Sting

Was hoping Pieters would fall to 4.4 but never materialised. Going to go back to George Friend now.

Cypher_sounds

shineon23 wrote: »

Up:
Foster,
A. Valencia,
Costa,
Hazard,
Benteke

km79

CSF wrote: »

Benteke rising was a disappointing surprise. Had him earmarked to come in once the Costa double rise came through. I'm still bringing him in but obviously that Costa .1 will be going on Benteke now.

yeah same
sterling didn't even get to play a game for me and still managed to let me down as well

FastFullBack

km79 wrote: »

yeah same
sterling didn't even get to play a game for me and still managed to let me down as well

Sterling is at 111% right now and Sergio is -104%. What happens at 11:30AM, Do they reset? Or are they likely to rise/fall tonight?

CSF

FastFullBack wrote: »

Sterling is at 111% right now and Sergio is -104%. What happens at 11:30AM, Do they reset? Or are they likely to rise/fall tonight?

They'll rise and fall tonight yeah.

km79

km79 wrote: »

yeah same
sterling didn't even get to play a game for me and still managed to let me down as well

Off after 59 minutes
Man I was so close to keeping him

8-10

km79 wrote: »

Off after 59 minutes
Man I was so close to keeping him

Sterling came off in the 60th min, I think it's unfair that FPL have given it as 59. He should get the extra point, maybe they'll change it later