Price Changes 2016/2017 - OP updated 15/12/16

Porthallian

stephenl15 wrote: »

Risers: Sterling, Holgate
Fallers: Dja Djedje, Zuniga, Rangel, S. Davis, Besic, Gibson, McCarthy, Welbeck.

No Aguero drop? :O

Colking

Porthallian wrote: »

No Aguero drop? :O

Nowhere near a drop yet.

Porthallian

Colking wrote: »

Porthallian wrote: »

No Aguero drop? :O

Nowhere near a drop yet.

Tongue in cheek :P

Iused2likebusts

eagle eye wrote: »

Aguero has 30000 selling him and less than 25k bringing him in. How on earth has any site got him at 66% to rise? I think the tranfers in weigh a lot less than transfers out for some reason.

We'll see what happens tonight but I haven't seen any site get things right yet.

The rises or falls don't start from 0% at the start of each gw. Aguero was already close to a rise at the start of this gw so he has to drop all the way back to 0% and then he has to make it 100% of the way to a fall. He is a long way off a fall.

CSF

How quick do we see Aguero's descent being? Of course he hasn't been banned yet but I can see alot of people getting rid or Wildcarding once they see the news tonight.

extra gravy

CSF wrote: »

How quick do we see Aguero's descent being? Of course he hasn't been banned yet but I can see alot of people getting rid or Wildcarding once they see the news tonight.

I've just got rid of him on wc. Ozil, Sanchez and Cazorla all going up this week and I haven't decided which one I want yet so just going to buy them all!

Xaniaj

extra gravy wrote: »

I've just got rid of him on wc. Ozil, Sanchez and Cazorla all going up this week and I haven't decided which one I want yet so just going to buy them all!

Lol, I wish I had the space for them all! It'll be Ozil or Caz and will have to decide this evening. I'll move Aguero out tonight but need to keep money in the bank to ensure I can get him back in for a maximum of two transfers

greedygoblin

Aguero is still at 34.4% to a rise on fplstats so I'd hope it'll be a couple of more days before he does fall. Will hold out to see if he's successful with any appeal to the charge.

CSF

greedygoblin wrote: »

Aguero is still at 34.4% to a rise on fplstats so I'd hope it'll be a couple of more days before he does fall. Will hold out to see if he's successful with any appeal to the charge.

Think he's at a rate of -12 per hour though (I'm following religiously to see if bringing in Negredo for value purposes would be a no risk move even if he avoids the ban)

Bleating Lamb

CSF wrote: »

Think he's at a rate of -12 per hour though (I'm following religiously to see if bringing in Negredo for value purposes would be a no risk move even if he avoids the ban)

As in -12%???..... Hard to know who to replace him with....like a lot of others I have Ibra and Negredo as well.

Choice of Defoe or Costa...neither has easy fixtures.

CSF

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

As in -12%???..... Hard to know who to replace him with....like a lot of others I have Ibra and Negredo as well.

Choice of Defoe or Costa...neither has easy fixtures.

Yeah. He won't go tonight, tomorrow is possible, I don't know though. If he goes tomorrow I expect him to drop the full .3 as there'll be another rush when the ban is confirmed and another when the rest log into their team the day before the deadline.

manual_man

CSF wrote: »

Yeah. He won't go tonight, tomorrow is possible, I don't know though. If he goes tomorrow I expect him to drop the full .3 as there'll be another rush when the ban is confirmed and another when the rest log into their team the day before the deadline.

Does it take more transfers out required for the 2nd fall?

greedygoblin

manual_man wrote: »

Does it take more transfers out required for the 2nd fall?

From the Fiso site:

If a player increases in value because they hit their NTI target, then in order for them to increase again in the same GameWeek (GW) the NTI target gets doubled. If they happen to hit that NTI target, in order for them to get a third increase, their NTI target gets trebled.

Edit: Actually that was for price rises but it's seemingly much the same idea for price drops where a 2nd drop requires roughly double the transfers out of the 1st.

greedygoblin

Something else I've seen on the fplstats site is this:

fplstats wrote:

For a player to fall in price quickly i) teams need to be selling the player, ii) at the same time he must be 100% available (i.e. not injured) and iii) the ineffective transfers must be low. For a player to rise in value quickly i) teams need to be buying the player, ii) the player must not be "locked" and iii) the ineffective transfers must be low.

Does the bit in bold mean that Aquero would need more transfers than normal for a fall to occur seeing as he's down as injured on the fpl site?

Ziegler1988

If he gets banned he'll go from yellow to red, which will mean more transfers out needed. Definitely down 0.2m this GW, not sure about the full 0.3m but I'd guess with his active ownership so high

Mr.Prodston

Aguero is 13.1 so for about 99.9% of us the first drop won't be an issue so we'll have plenty of time to see how things pan out.

Who_8_Paul?

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

Aguero is 13.1 so for about 99.9% of us the first drop won't be an issue so we'll have plenty of time to see how things pan out.

Yeah but Sanchez might go up tonight which will force those without spare cash to move. I have just enough for Tadic and Aguero to Sanchez and Costa

Mr.Prodston

Who_8_Paul? wrote: »

Yeah but Sanchez might go up tonight which will force those without spare cash to move. I have just enough for Tadic and Aguero to Sanchez and Costa

I forgot about that side of the equation :pac:

Could people not just have some patience please?

Who_8_Paul?

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

I forgot about that side of the equation :pac:

Could people not just have some patience please?

Not sure what an old old wooden ship has got to do with it. I have FPL Statistics open and the print on my refresh key is fading. Funny thing is, I don't even really want Costa but no other striker tickles my fancy.

Ziegler1988

Who_8_Paul? wrote: »

Yeah but Sanchez might go up tonight which will force those without spare cash to move. I have just enough for Tadic and Aguero to Sanchez and Costa

Wouldn't personally bring in Sanchez right now unless on WC, two Chile world cup qualifiers to navigate first. He's only going back up to his starting price of 11.0m anyway

Who_8_Paul?

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Wouldn't personally bring in Sanchez right now unless on WC, two Chile world cup qualifiers to navigate first. He's only going back up to his starting price of 11.0m anyway

With Aguero and Tadic on the chopping block though and already have Zlatan and Hazard, there's only really Sanchez or Ozil to consider in midfield and maybe Costa, Vardy, Kane up front. None really calling out yet bar Sanchez; the Aguero issue and likely injuries after international games might stretch a lot of squads next gameweek

Big Borg

Why are people making two tight trades? Just sell Aquero and bank the extra money. Makes it easier to buy him back.

Dont be at yourself

Why the lack of Vardy love? Off the mark now, and Leicester have been creating chances for him...

Who_8_Paul?

Big Borg wrote: »

Why are people making two tight trades? Just sell Aquero and bank the extra money. Makes it easier to buy him back.

Too much money in your pocket can lead to bad things

km79

Who_8_Paul? wrote: »

Too much money in your pocket can lead to bad things

Who_8_Paul?

km79 wrote: »

Yeah but imagine going into a gameweek without a fit playing Aguero, you'd feel like Walter White costume at a party in just your jocks, exposed and vulnerable

Mr.Prodston

km79 wrote: »

Don't be silly

patmac

km79 wrote: »

Also makes bringing in Ibra a lot easier for those of us that don't have him.

FHFC

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

If he gets banned he'll go from yellow to red, which will mean more transfers out needed. Definitely down 0.2m this GW, not sure about the full 0.3m but I'd guess with his active ownership so high

I think once flagged 0.2 is the max he'll drop this GW. May even be only 0.1 IMO.

A lot of his TOs will be wildcards as many will pop them in a panic. By tomorrow he'll be red flagged and threshold will increase. Based on the FISO theory (which is kinda outdated but all we have), the threshold for his first drop is different cause hes risen in price. To drop he just has to lose the same number it took to rise. Something around 47k once he hits zero. But this will increase when flagged.

Threshold for next drop believed to be around 10% of ownership. Approx 1.9m owners. So 190k, probably tumes 2.5 when flagged.

So needs approx 475,000 non wildcard nett transfers out to drop a second time.

Again, health warning that a lot of the rules are not necessarily as per the FISO FAQ any more. But (sadly as a wildcarder) my guess would be 0.2 max this week.

CSF

For some reason I was under the impression that wildcard transfers out counted, is that wrong?