Price Changes 2016/2017 - OP updated 15/12/16

alchemist33

Aguero reset to -13% on Fix. Must be all the wildcards

NewApproach

What's the benefit of doing transferd throughout the period but waiting until the end to activate the wildcard?

8-10

NewApproach wrote: »

What's the benefit of doing transferd throughout the period but waiting until the end to activate the wildcard?

Your transfers are included in price change calculations. For 1 person it's insignificant but if you look on other sites there's a lot that do it this way and it makes logical sense to have your transfers count. You're going to activate it either way so your choice is do it early and have the prices not count or do it late and have them count. No-brainer to me but there's many who prefer to do it early in case they forget to activate it.

Cookie_Dough

8-10 wrote: »

Your transfers are included in price change calculations. For 1 person it's insignificant but if you look on other sites there's a lot that do it this way and it makes logical sense to have your transfers count. You're going to activate it either way so your choice is do it early and have the prices not count or do it late and have them count. No-brainer to me but there's many who prefer to do it early in case they forget to activate it.

I activated my WC before I transferred anybody. So can you say transfer for a GW and take a -12 (for example) then hit the wildcard button before the deadline resulting in the -12 being wiped out and points being restored?

It wouldn't make sense to leave transfers until last minute if there would be a risk of missing out on price changes but I do see the logic in having the transfers count towards the price changes.

greedygoblin

Cookie_Dough wrote: »

I activated my WC before I transferred anybody. So can you say transfer for a GW and take a -12 (for example) then hit the wildcard button before the deadline resulting in the -12 being wiped out and points being restored?

It wouldn't make sense to leave transfers until last minute if there would be a risk of missing out on price changes but I do see the logic in having the transfers count towards the price changes.

Yep. You could make as many transfers as you want incurring a massive points hit and then hit the wildcard before the deadline thereby wiping the points hit out.

iroced

Cookie_Dough wrote: »

So can you say transfer for a GW and take a -12 (for example) then hit the wildcard button before the deadline resulting in the -12 being wiped out and points being restored?

Yes.

steve_r

I'd say a lot of people are waiting on the result of the suspensions.

I've made two FTs so far. Depending on the news, I may wildcard but I may take a hit if I only need to move one or two.

8-10

greedygoblin wrote: »

Yep. You could make as many transfers as you want incurring a massive points hit and then hit the wildcard before the deadline thereby wiping the points hit out.

And after I've been going on about it what are the odds I'll be the one to forget and be stuck with a -40 next week

F1ngers

8-10 wrote: »

And after I've been going on about it what are the odds I'll be the one to forget and be stuck with a -40 next week

It's been mentioned before, put a reminder on your phone.

FHFC

F1ngers wrote: »

It's been mentioned before, put a reminder on your phone.

Thats all well and good, but sometimes shít happens. You get held up at work on Friday evening. You're not near a computer so relying on the phone on Friday/Sat and you drop your phone down the jacks while out on Friday night. Kids get sick, family emergencies happen. I certainly wouldn't want to be in a position where, if some other life priority came up coming into a weekend that I'd be worrying about ruining my FPL season with a -50 hit.

And for me the main point is that even if everyone on the forum, or even a sizable proportion of hardcore players did the not activating wildcard thing, in the context of 3.7m players, it won't make the slightest bit of difference to price changes anyway so its pointless to begin with.

CSF

Yeah those are my feelings on it too. My 1 wildcard won't make any difference, and unfortunately I've no means of influencing what anyone else does.

greedygoblin

FHFC wrote: »

And for me the main point is that even if everyone on the forum, or even a sizable proportion of hardcore players did the not activating wildcard thing, in the context of 3.7m players, it won't make the slightest bit of difference to price changes anyway so its pointless to begin with.

I fully agree with the rest of your post but it's just this bit I take a slightly different view of. I think it does make a difference. To give you a present example, Dawson, the Hull defender (not that many of us here have him anyway), is on -97% on fplstats. It's predicted that only 5 more transfers are required for him to drop. So as the Tesco ad goes "every little helps".

wonski

greedygoblin wrote: »

I fully agree with the rest of your post but it's just this bit I take a slightly different view of. I think it does make a difference. To give you a present example, Dawson, the Hull defender (not that many of us here have him anyway), is on -97% on fplstats. It's predicted that only 5 more transfers are required for him to drop. So as the Tesco ad goes "every little helps".

But these predictions are far from perfect.

Most players on wildcard are transferring in and out players who are owned by more than 45 people:D

We are talking hundreds of thousands if not millions here.

greedygoblin

wonski wrote: »

But these predictions are far from perfect.

Most players on wildcard are transferring in and out players who are owned by more than 45 people:D

We are talking hundreds of thousands if not millions here.

No doubt about it that these prediction sites still have some work to do to get it right. And I think fplstats is the best of them right now. They have a graph somewhere where they compare last seasons prediction errors to how they are doing at present. The gap between whats predicted and what actually happens is much smaller this year. They are improving.

But going back to the original argument, take someone like Alexis. He's owned by over 10% of players. Out of approximately 3 million. So say he's on 300,000 players teams. For to rise, he needs to increase this number by about 10%. So say another 30,000 people need to bring him in.

Imagine he's close to a rise coming up to a deadline. Let's say 99.9% (it's not entirely outside the realms of possibility that something like this could happen). That equates to around 30 transfers needed to reach the threshold. It could be the difference between being able to afford him today and not being able to afford him tomorrow. Just a handful of transfers could have an impact.

(I'm typing this on me phone and doing the sums in me head so forgive me if the numbers don't add up. Maths was never my strongest subject anyway! :pac:)

FHFC

greedygoblin wrote: »

No doubt about it that these prediction sites still have some work to do to get it right. And I think fplstats is the best of them right now. They have a graph somewhere where they compare last seasons prediction errors to how they are doing at present. The gap between whats predicted and what actually happens is much smaller this year. They are improving.

But going back to the original argument, take someone like Alexis. He's owned by over 10% of players. Out of approximately 3 million. So say he's on 300,000 players teams. For to rise, he needs to increase this number by about 10%. So say another 30,000 people need to bring him in.

Imagine he's close to a rise coming up to a deadline. Let's say 99.9% (it's not entirely outside the realms of possibility that something like this could happen). That equates to around 30 transfers needed to reach the threshold. It could be the difference between being able to afford him today and not being able to afford him tomorrow. Just a handful of transfers could have an impact.

(I'm typing this on me phone and doing the sums in me head so forgive me if the numbers don't add up. Maths was never my strongest subject anyway! :pac:)

Technically correct of course. But the odds of your one wee transfer being the straw that breaks any particular camels back are surely astronomical.

And the thing is, while those odds would shorten if we all did it, or if most hardcore players did it - the fact is that currently they don't. So unless you can get everyone signed up to some kind of pact join you, doing it in isolation is 100% pointless.

Benimar

FHFC wrote: »

Technically correct of course. But the odds of your one wee transfer being the straw that breaks any particular camels back are surely astronomical.

And the thing is, while those odds would shorten if we all did it, or if most hardcore players did it - the fact is that currently they don't. So unless you can get everyone signed up to some kind of pact join you, doing it in isolation is 100% pointless.

McAuley didn't rise on Tuesday. I bring him in yesterday on WC, but don't hit the WC button, and he rises. Just saying

8-10

FHFC wrote: »

I certainly wouldn't want to be in a position where, if some other life priority came up coming into a weekend that I'd be worrying about ruining my FPL season with a -50 hit.

It's just a game though. If some life priority comes up then so be it. -50 is what it is. You can say the same about missing the draft in your live draft league which I've done before in a baseball league I play in for money.

It's just so unlikely that something is going to come up next week that would mean being away for a whole 24hrs - and if it did it's probably something that renders FPL completely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

Plus, if you have activated the wildcard already you likely have all the likely risers in your team ready to swap out on the last day - I doubt people wildcard to their ideal GW4 team the day GW3 ended, instead they'll have brought in McAuley, maybe Fer, Sterling, Negredo, Jakupovic etc etc who all rose in price at the start of the week but maybe people have no intention of keeping post wildcard. So in that situation you will still be in the same boat next week if you miss 24hrs and can't update your team based on the team news etc - at least with the -50 you still have a wildcard in the bank! :P

Actually.......how do even get a -50?

greedygoblin

FHFC wrote: »

Technically correct of course. But the odds of your one wee transfer being the straw that breaks any particular camels back are surely astronomical.

And the thing is, while those odds would shorten if we all did it, or if most hardcore players did it - the fact is that currently they don't. So unless you can get everyone signed up to some kind of pact join you, doing it in isolation is 100% pointless.

You are probably right. A good bunch of people who are playing the wildcard at the same time would have to work together for the strategy to have any payoff. And the players they are buying would have to rise 0.2 for any profit to be made anyway.

I suppose it just goes to show how difficult it is to increase team value this year. As someone already said it's more about avoiding price drops rather than hopping on the newest bandwagons hoping for price gains.

FHFC

8-10 wrote: »

It's just a game though. If some life priority comes up then so be it. -50 is what it is. You can say the same about missing the draft in your live draft league which I've done before in a baseball league I play in for money.

It's just so unlikely that something is going to come up next week that would mean being away for a whole 24hrs - and if it did it's probably something that renders FPL completely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

Plus, if you have activated the wildcard already you likely have all the likely risers in your team ready to swap out on the last day - I doubt people wildcard to their ideal GW4 team the day GW3 ended, instead they'll have brought in McAuley, maybe Fer, Sterling, Negredo, Jakupovic etc etc who all rose in price at the start of the week but maybe people have no intention of keeping post wildcard. So in that situation you will still be in the same boat next week if you miss 24hrs and can't update your team based on the team news etc - at least with the -50 you still have a wildcard in the bank! :P

Actually.......how do even get a -50?

Its all getting a bit pedantic and pointless now...however...yes its just a game and if you can't update your team so be it, so why but why put yourself in the position for a pointless exercise?

And yes if you didn't pick your actual WC team you'd have a messed up team, but if you haven't activated your WC you'd have a messed up team plus a huge hit.

And how do you get -50?? Make 12 and a half transfers obviously!! :pac:

FHFC

greedygoblin wrote: »

You are probably right. A good bunch of people who are playing the wildcard at the same time would have to work together for the strategy to have any payoff. And the players they are buying would have to rise 0.2 for any profit to be made anyway.

I suppose it just goes to show how difficult it is to increase team value this year. As someone already said it's more about avoiding price drops rather than hopping on the newest bandwagons hoping for price gains.

I think its been harder to gain value in general this year because there have been no stand out cheap form player to bandwagon to.

Usually all the dud preseason picks are being sold and dropping in price, with those transfers going to the Mahrez, or whoever is looking a clear bargain. This year the transfers in are more spread around and apart from Negredo no player has gotten a significant rise, and only a few altogether have risen twice.

alchemist33

I think we'll see big rises in prices over the next three gameweeks. A template will start to form and there'll be much fewer wildcards used.

titan18

We could all game the system as it takes less transfers to drop than to rise, if we all sold a player just to buy him back, sell again etc every day, he'd most likely drop a .1 or .2 and we'd be better off

CSF

titan18 wrote: »

We could all game the system as it takes less transfers to drop than to rise, if we all sold a player just to buy him back, sell again etc every day, he'd most likely drop a .1 or .2 and we'd be better off

I imagine multiple transfers out from the same person are accounted for in the algorithm. Otherwise you could pretty much set up an automated program to send Aguero to 4.5.

iroced

CSF wrote: »

I imagine multiple transfers out from the same person are accounted for in the algorithm. Otherwise you could pretty much set up an automated program to send Aguero to 4.5.

You can still do it.

1. Be prepared and create 3 millions e-mail adresses and 3 millions FPL teams.
2. Wait for Aguero to be under protection (e.g. for 8 days after his ban will be over) and transfer him in your 3M teams.
3. When his protection ends, transfer him out massively and cleverly (just the £0.3m NTO needed each GW).

4. Realise you spent all this time for no purpose cause not only you already own Agüero in your real team but you also made him affordable to anyone else :pac:.

CSF

iroced wrote: »

You can still do it.

1. Be prepared and create 3 millions e-mail adresses and 3 millions FPL teams.
2. Wait for Aguero to be under protection (e.g. for 8 days after his ban will be over) and transfer him in your 3M teams.
3. When his protection ends, transfer him out massively and cleverly (just the £0.3m NTO needed each GW).

4. Realise you spent all this time for no purpose cause not only you already own Agüero in your real team but you also made him affordable to anyone else :pac:.

I've a week off next week so I'll get on it. What I've really done is dropped everyone's team value by 8.5 million over time

km79

Aguero will surely drop back .2/.3 over the next 2 weeks now
Maybe more which would be delicious

Ziegler1988

Kun gone from -58% to -36% on FPLStats after flag change. When his flag is removed on 21 Sept, he'll be price protected for 8 days

manual_man

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Kun gone from -58% to -36% on FPLStats after flag change. When his flag is removed on 21 Sept, he'll be price protected for 8 days

why 21st Sept?

Scorpion Sting

manual_man wrote: »

why 21st Sept?

After his ban will be up.

manual_man

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

After his ban will be up.

but surely only the league games will relate to him being flagged - ie. will be the 17th as opposed to the 21st