Tesla Model 3

Shefwedfan

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

An interesting comparison but HP bought compaq and still make laptops while IBM sold theirs to Lenovo.

Maybe another comparison is better made to Nokia who lost out to Apple in the phone game.

Trying not to go too far off topic

The HP acquisition of Compaq is recognized as a disaster. HP have spent years trying to fix it. So much so they split up the company in 2015. One section is Enterprise and one is HP Inc. HP Inc sells laptops etc and is been more or less left to die while all the focus and cash has been pushed into Enterprise

IBM just sold off the laptop/desktop business for a few million instead of creating a fall guy company like HP did

Not wanting to take this off topic but HP didn't do so well thereafter in the laptop world - yes, they still make them but their focus these days is on services.

Not really correct either, HP Enterprise decided to sell it services division....can't remember off top of head who it was but that is gone as well

grogi

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Not really correct either, HP Enterprise decided to sell it services division....can't remember off top of head who it was but that is gone as well

Micro Focus / CSC.

cros13

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Trying not to go too far off topic

*cough*

Shefwedfan

cros13 wrote: »

*cough*

Bless you :P

Gumbo

Anyone else get a phone call from Tesla today or recently?
I done the test drive in the RDS a month or so back, and they called asking if I would like an extended test drive, and to drop into the new showroom to arrange.

He asked if it left any lasting impression.....I told him I'm still searching the back of the sofa for any money I can find to order one, and asked him how much he would give me for my Leaf as trade in

unkel

I presume you will take the extended test drive? I know I would

Shefwedfan

kceire wrote: »

Anyone else get a phone call from Tesla today or recently?
I done the test drive in the RDS a month or so back, and they called asking if I would like an extended test drive, and to drop into the new showroom to arrange.

He asked if it left any lasting impression.....I told him I'm still searching the back of the sofa for any money I can find to order one, and asked him how much he would give me for my Leaf as trade in

Who needs money for a test drive!!!

Water John

Once, you do a full extended report here, you can have your extended test drive.

Gumbo

unkel wrote: »

I presume you will take the extended test drive? I know I would

If I wasn't so damn busy at the moment I certainly would.

unkel

I'll gladly take that burden off your hands

Hulk Hands

Annoyed to have missed the open day, couldn't make it. Assume i'll be waiting ages for a test drive if i pop down and book one?

Gumbo

unkel wrote: »

I'll gladly take that burden off your hands

I'm sure if you just turn u they will let you drive.
Tell them you wanted to drive t at the SEAI event but it was booked out and they put you in an inferior Leaf or some sort of tin box

bk

BoatMad wrote: »

The other thing is the EV market will be more and more competitive and tesla will not have a clear run at it , the way they did with the model S . The auto industry will not sit back , like it did up till now, regarding Tesla as a quirky niche company. Tesla is playing with the big boys now !!

When Apple first launched the iPhone I heard many people say the same about Nokia and look at how that turned out!

Sometimes it can be really difficult for very large companies to quickly change direction when major new disruptive technology comes along.

I can lists hundreds of once massive companies that once dominated their industries but now don't exist due to them being too slow to change to handle new disruptive technologies (Nokia, DEC, Compaq, Sun Microsystems, Yahoo, AOL, etc.).

The counter argument to this is that Samsung were the second largest phone manufacturer in the days of Nokia and they very quickly changed to handle the threat from Apple and now they are number one (in terms of volume, still way behind Apple in terms of profit).

The reality is that many of the large car manufacturers won't be able to change quick enough to the EV revolution and up coming self driving vehicles revolution and a lot of the big names will end up being wiped out.

Of course, just like Samsung, some will change much quicker and will survive these revolutions. I suspect BMW will survive the changes. However it will be a very painful change for them and will likely cost them tens of billions, just like it did Samsung. They certainly won't be happy about this change.

One key advantage that Tesla has is that they have built massive capacity to build large quantities of batteries that will be required for this scale of production.

While of course BMW, etc. can of course easily design and sell their own EV at a small scale, the big question is can they build or buy enough batteries to sell hundred of thousands of EV's per year, that is the hard part.

There is simply not enough battery manufacturing capacity outside of Tesla at the moment to do this. It will take years for BMW and the other companies to build out similar capacity and in the mean time that will give Tesla a lot of breathing space to massively expand it's market share, brand and really get hooked into the market.

Of course Tesla won't have the whole market to themselves for ever. Eventually at least some of the traditional car makers will have caught up and they will be the Samsung and LG's to Tesla's Apple.

Though I certainly believe that Tesla will be very well placed in the market and with a very good market share and perhaps even continue to dominate the market.

But then we get to do this all over again with self driving cars! I'd hate to be one of the traditional car manufacturers, very rough and uncertain times ahead for them.

Evd-Burner

PirateShampoo wrote:

Streets with no house numbers but house names instead. They are the bane of my job.

bk wrote:

But then we get to do this all over again with self driving cars! I'd hate to be one of the traditional car manufacturers, very rough and uncertain times ahead for them.

I have a feeling that each car manufacturer won't developed their own self drive. But will instead use the likes of Google or Microsoft to provide it. IE the car manufacturer creates hardware to a spec that can be utilised by a third party vendor to provide self driving cars. Google and Microsoft are both developing their own.

eeguy

Evd-Burner wrote: »

I have a feeling that each car manufacturer won't developed their own self drive. But will instead use the likes of Google or Microsoft to provide it. IE the car manufacturer creates hardware to a spec that can be utilised by a third party vendor to provide self driving cars. Google and Microsoft are both developing their own.

I'd well believe that.

We're in a time like early mobile phones, where Nokia, Eriksson, Blackberry etc is all doing their own thing.
Eventually one or two will win out a la Android/ iOS and everything will run on that.

It doesn't make sense for car companies to also be software/data mining companies.

Sabre Man

Mobileye (being bought by Intel) used to work with Tesla on self driving and is now working with BMW.

Delphi is another provider.

Autoliv has partnered with Volvo.

BoatMad

bk wrote: »

When Apple first launched the iPhone I heard many people say the same about Nokia and look at how that turned out!

Sometimes it can be really difficult for very large companies to quickly change direction when major new disruptive technology comes along.

I can lists hundreds of once massive companies that once dominated their industries but now don't exist due to them being too slow to change to handle new disruptive technologies (Nokia, DEC, Compaq, Sun Microsystems, Yahoo, AOL, etc.).

The counter argument to this is that Samsung were the second largest phone manufacturer in the days of Nokia and they very quickly changed to handle the threat from Apple and now they are number one (in terms of volume, still way behind Apple in terms of profit).

The reality is that many of the large car manufacturers won't be able to change quick enough to the EV revolution and up coming self driving vehicles revolution and a lot of the big names will end up being wiped out.

Of course, just like Samsung, some will change much quicker and will survive these revolutions. I suspect BMW will survive the changes. However it will be a very painful change for them and will likely cost them tens of billions, just like it did Samsung. They certainly won't be happy about this change.

One key advantage that Tesla has is that they have built massive capacity to build large quantities of batteries that will be required for this scale of production.

While of course BMW, etc. can of course easily design and sell their own EV at a small scale, the big question is can they build or buy enough batteries to sell hundred of thousands of EV's per year, that is the hard part.

There is simply not enough battery manufacturing capacity outside of Tesla at the moment to do this. It will take years for BMW and the other companies to build out similar capacity and in the mean time that will give Tesla a lot of breathing space to massively expand it's market share, brand and really get hooked into the market.

Of course Tesla won't have the whole market to themselves for ever. Eventually at least some of the traditional car makers will have caught up and they will be the Samsung and LG's to Tesla's Apple.

Though I certainly believe that Tesla will be very well placed in the market and with a very good market share and perhaps even continue to dominate the market.

But then we get to do this all over again with self driving cars! I'd hate to be one of the traditional car manufacturers, very rough and uncertain times ahead for them.

We should separate self driving cars from the EV debate

I personally think pure self driving , i.e. Fully autonomous cars are decades away , there are huge legal and social issues , large scale car sharing is in my view pie in the sky ( largely because car ownership is about status not transport )

The apple comparison isn't valid as apple was already large and established company. Apple doesn't innovate , it moves to dominate existing technology .

There is a current shortage of battery manufacturing , largely because there was a glut of it at the wrong time and much capacity was removed.

The point is that Li is well understood and hence it's easier enough to build such plants.

Neither is there anything in the basic EV technology that is difficult to replicate or anything where tesla has any sort of proprietorial hold. All current manufacturers for example have self drive projects and arguable Mercedes is better then tesla

As for google , they are a advertising seller , that's it , the rest is Pages plaything and usually produces nothing real ( like where is google glass)
Apple will not get into cars , it may be peripherally involved

Tesla is not a disruptor , it's merely another car manufacturing company

BoatMad

eeguy wrote: »

I'd well believe that.

We're in a time like early mobile phones, where Nokia, Eriksson, Blackberry etc is all doing their own thing.
Eventually one or two will win out a la Android/ iOS and everything will run on that.

It doesn't make sense for car companies to also be software/data mining companies.

I doubt it will be google. It just sells advertising !!

I suspect the software will come from small specialised companies , which will s the case today , with Israel being a leader. Car companies do very little development , they are really purchasers of sub assemblies

Today virtually all automotive software is third party developed

EndaHonesty

BoatMad wrote: »

I doubt it will be google. It just sells advertising !!

I suspect the software will come from small specialised companies , which will s the case today , with Israel being a leader. Car companies do very little development , they are really purchasers of sub assemblies

Today virtually all automotive software is third party developed

Alphabet Inc. Google's parent, owns Waymo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo

We’re working towards fully self-driving cars that make it safe and easy for everyone to get around. Our journey started at Google in 2009, and we became Waymo in 2016.

https://waymo.com/

BoatMad

We’re working towards fully self-driving cars that make it safe and easy for everyone to get around. Our journey started at Google in 2009, and we became Waymo in 2016.

" we" are also looking to a manned mission to mars

I'm personally not sure which will occur first

EndaHonesty

BoatMad wrote: »

" we" are also looking to a manned mission to mars

I'm personally not sure which will occur first

Google, Samsung, Apple, Tesla, Uber and many other firms are devoting huge resources to solve the issues around self driving cars.

The technology is improving at an exponential rate;

https://www.theverge.com/2017/2/1/14474790/google-waymo-self-driving-car-disengagement-dmv-california

There is no doubt that "we" will have self driving cars before a manned mission to mars.

bk

BoatMad wrote: »

I personally think pure self driving , i.e. Fully autonomous cars are decades away , there are huge legal and social issues , large scale car sharing is in my view pie in the sky ( largely because car ownership is about status not transport )

Ughhh...

BoatMad wrote: »

Apple doesn't innovate , it moves to dominate existing technology .

Oh god... Ughhhh...

BoatMad wrote: »

Tesla is not a disruptor , it's merely another car manufacturing company

Oh god....... Ughhhhhhh...

You literally couldn't be more wrong about all the above points. Not even worth discussing anything with you if these are the things you honestly believe! :eek:

unkel

But BoatMad is right that Apple doesn't innovate! Just have a look at what Apple spends in R&D as a percentage of turnover. They wouldn't even be in the top 100 worldwide...

KCross

unkel wrote: »

But BoatMad is right that Apple doesn't innovate! Just have a look at what Apple spends in R&D as a percentage of turnover. They wouldn't even be in the top 100 worldwide...

So, if you are hugely successful with your innovation and sell your product by the millions you're not an innovator!!

unkel

What innovations?

Apple is hugely successful because they are better than anybody else in getting very high margins for their lovely products. They haven't really invented anything new.

KCross

unkel wrote: »

What innovations?

Apple is hugely successful because they are better than anybody else in getting very high margins for their lovely products. They haven't really invented anything new.

Being an innovator doesn't mean you have to invent an entirely new product.

Apples main innovation is in its designs.

eeguy

unkel wrote: »

What innovations?

Apple is hugely successful because they are better than anybody else in getting very high margins for their lovely products. They haven't really invented anything new.

There's a huge distinction between invention and innovation. Apple are not inventors, they're innovators. They take something that's already been done and make it better, or come at it from a different approach. That is innovation.

Please lets not make this an Apple thread.

unkel

Fair points, lads.

My father worked in Philips R&D all of his working life, a place where they actually invented stuff. No surprises I hold that in higher esteem than a company that makes things a bit nicer looking

BoatMad

bk wrote: »

Ughhh...



Oh god... Ughhhh...



Oh god....... Ughhhhhhh...

You literally couldn't be more wrong about all the above points. Not even worth discussing anything with you if these are the things you honestly believe! :eek:

Unless your crystal ball is better then mine , I stand by what I've said

I been in IT tech since the introduction of the microprocessor

I've worked in robotics , embedded design and small and large software projects

Apple is not a innovator , it rarely develops markets , it wasn't the first mplayer, it wasn't the first workable smart phone ( I had several windows CE devices before the iPhone ,) its computers are well engineered but unremarkable ( I own 8 apple devices and write for iOS and macOS )

Early Apple tried to be an innovator , the company nearly failed as a result.



You miss my point about self driving cars.

Today we could " easily " automate planes and especially trains.
Yet the TGV ( which runs on dedicated tracks ) and the A380 ( which flies in dedicated lanes ) have humans at the controls , ask yourself why ????


A car operating in essentially an uncontrolled environment amongst many other amateur operated vehicles presents huge issues of risk and responsibility

In relation to self driving , I am not referring to the technology , I'm referring to the adoption

The self driving car is almost uniquely USA centric , in Europe for example , planners are engaged in a relentless march to remove cars from urban environments and replace them with public transport . Cars , self driving or otherwise , are likely to not be the preferred form of urban transport over the next 30 years.

My own view , is the machine vision and AI technologies will actually find uses first in other areas , like robotic production

I also predict that most automation will simply act as a driver " aid" for decades to come. The actual removal of a human from the responsibility of command , will be a long time away

Remember cars are " lifestyle " purchases, largely " status " symbols , which is why " premium brands " exist. The idea that people will exchange a " status object " for a shared " box on wheels " remains totally untested.

It's worth looking back at the 1979 Channel 4 TV series " the mighty micro " , which made predictions upto 2000 and beyond , to see what future gazing gets wrong. ( see you tube )

Often we predict the technology advances , but we totally fail to see societal changes and completely miss things that have yet to be invented

( i.e. The mighty micro totally underestimated the complexity issues around software and totally missed the internet )

Merely that the technology might mature is no guarantee that society adopts it in the form forseen

( an example is gsm text messages , added to allow network status messages to be sent , no one saw it would lead to the social media revolution )

EndaHonesty

BoatMad wrote: »

Apple is not a innovator , it rarely develops markets , it wasn't the first mplayer, it wasn't the first workable smart phone ( I had several windows CE devices before the iPhone ,) its computers are well engineered but unremarkable ( I own 8 apple devices and write for iOS and macOS )

Early Apple tried to be an innovator , the company nearly failed as a result.

Goes to great lengths to tell us that Apple isn't an innovator and then gives examples of Apple's innovation... :rolleyes:

Innovate Definition
verb (used without object), innovated, innovating.
1. to introduce something new; make changes in anything established.
verb (used with object), innovated, innovating.
2. to introduce (something new) for or as if for the first time:
to innovate a computer operating system.
3. Archaic. to alter.

BoatMad wrote: »

You miss my point about self driving cars.

Today we could " easily " automate planes and especially trains.
Yet the TGV ( which runs on dedicated tracks ) and the A380 ( which flies in dedicated lanes ) have humans at the controls , ask yourself why ????


A car operating in essentially an uncontrolled environment amongst many other amateur operated vehicles presents huge issues of risk and responsibility

In relation to self driving , I am not referring to the technology , I'm referring to the adoption

The self driving car is almost uniquely USA centric , in Europe for example , planners are engaged in a relentless march to remove cars from urban environments and replace them with public transport . Cars , self driving or otherwise , are likely to not be the preferred form of urban transport over the next 30 years.

My own view , is the machine vision and AI technologies will actually find uses first in other areas , like robotic production

I also predict that most automation will simply act as a driver " aid" for decades to come. The actual removal of a human from the responsibility of command , will be a long time away

Remember cars are " lifestyle " purchases, largely " status " symbols , which is why " premium brands " exist. The idea that people will exchange a " status object " for a shared " box on wheels " remains totally untested.

It's worth looking back at the 1979 Channel 4 TV series " the mighty micro " , which made predictions upto 2000 and beyond , to see what future gazing gets wrong. ( see you tube )

Often we predict the technology advances , but we totally fail to see societal changes and completely miss things that have yet to be invented

( i.e. The mighty micro totally underestimated the complexity issues around software and totally missed the internet )

Merely that the technology might mature is no guarantee that society adopts it in the form forseen

( an example is gsm text messages , added to allow network status messages to be sent , no one saw it would lead to the social media revolution )

Tells us how it's not possible for people to predict the future.

Then proceeds to predict the future... :rolleyes: