Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

All depends on what the uppers would be on the day. If it was on the right side of marginal..."Do not make unnecessary snowmen!"

Looks similar to the late Jan 2013 setup that dumped inches of snow on High ground.

Coles

That's a chart of the rolling '7 day accumulated rainfall' from the western Wicklow mountains. The circled area is when the flooding commenced in the Midlands and the red line is a conservative projection for the rainfall over the next few days.

km79

met eireanns evening update of forecast seems less worrying

maquiladora

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Thats a scary amount of water falling in such a short space of time.

By the way maquiladora how do you rate the WRF model ?

It uses GFS data as boundary conditions, so as long as as the GFS hasn't gotten things wrong in the short term it's pretty decent. I find it fairly accurate for winds. Sometimes the rainfall can look a bit overdone because it takes into consideration high ground at a finer resolution than larger scale models.

Coles

maquiladora wrote: »

It uses GFS data as boundary conditions, so as long as as the GFS hasn't gotten things wrong in the short term it's pretty decent. I find it fairly accurate for winds. Sometimes the rainfall can look a bit overdone because it takes into consideration high ground at a finer resolution than larger scale models.

Yeah, I haven't seen anything to suggest that it'll be quite that bad. I certainly hope not!

maquiladora

Coles wrote: »

Yeah, I haven't seen anything to suggest that it'll be quite that bad. I certainly hope not!

What the WRF is showing over the southwest is similar to what it showed over the west for Desmond, if I remember rightly. ARPGEGE also looks extremely wet. But yes, hopefully it won't be that bad, though some degree of flooding is probably inevitable.

Coles

maquiladora wrote: »

What the WRF is showing over the southwest is similar to what it showed over the west for Desmond, if I remember rightly. ARPGEGE also looks extremely wet. But yes, hopefully it won't be that bad, though some degree of flooding is probably inevitable.

The ARPEGE is out there on it's own this time.

ronnie3585

The latest from NOAA:

Today's OPC 48-hour Atlantic surface forecast valid 1200 UTC 12/29/15 indicates multiple strong low pressure systems across the basin. Of note, a pair of very powerful systems will intensify just to the west of Ireland, and one is expected to develop hurricane force winds (> 64 knots). The storm force low (winds from 48 to 63 knots) to the southwest is expected to approach the coast or Ireland by 72 hours.

Padster90s

Is it time a thread was started for the 29th?

JCX BXC

Padster90s wrote: »

Is it time a thread was started for the 29th?

Here ya go:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=98208853#post98208853

Maybe a little premature, but why not.

blackbird99

surprised at how strong the wind is tonight here in south tipp, easily as bad as the last couple of storms,
power is flickering on and off.

legomaniac

Thankfully there appears to be a downgrade in the severe weather forecast. The rte weather at 930 wasn't as severe as what they were hinting at yesterday. Looks like the worst has well missed us

Schadenfreudia

Nothing resembling windiness here so far - after a frosty start it became mild again and is now 11.2C with mainly clear skies.

JCX BXC

The house is certainly bearing the brunt of this strong southeasterly, its very strange.

Meteorite58

Looking at the latest 00.00 reports all counties under the yellow warning would have winds within that range, highest Valentia with 39 kph ( 72 kph ). Not as use to strong southerly winds here so hearing a few different sounds from the back of the house.

Highest gust here in Ardfert 66 kph

squarecircles

The winds here in west mayo sound vicious,not used to it coming from the south east,sounds far worse than anything weve had all winter.

Wx

dexter647 wrote: »

It's amazing we got till the end of August before the winter thread was set up imo....Going to be a cold one;)

Still waiting.Hopefully something before end of Feb.

Graces7

Wild up here; I noticed that the reference to Storm Frank had been dropped last evening. Front of the house getting battered here. ie south. Some hail earlier and the rafters rattling. Feels chilly although not they say.

corsav6

squarecircles wrote: »

The winds here in west mayo sound vicious,not used to it coming from the south east,sounds far worse than anything weve had all winter.

Wind here outside Newport wasn't too bad at all, I'm more concerned about Tues/Wed and what wind that will bring to the west.

Polo_Mint

Windy in Naas, Kildare

sumtings

Out in East Limerick this morning and very very blustery, as strong as I've seen it this season but very exposed here compared to limerick City.

redsteveireland

Quiet windy in Kildare, nothing out of the ordinary.
I see that second band of rain looks quiet heavy, I'll be driving through that later.

maquiladora

Another potential storm on Friday.

Colser

Wind picking up now near Cork city..very strong gust just now.

JanuarySnowstor

Colser wrote: »

Wind picking up now near Cork city..very strong gust just now.

it's been wild in cork for at least 5-6 hours though nothing exceptional

Colser

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

it's been wild in cork for at least 5-6 hours though nothing exceptional

I agree but the gust a few minutes ago really howled around the chimney and I kinda thought "Here we go"..thats all.:)

mickger844posts

Another wet and windy day here without being exceptional. Gusts to 50km/h with light rain.

www.waterfordcityweather.com

Rock Lesnar

No rain yet in the North East thankfully, but its fierce windy.

JCX BXC

Yellow rainfall warning issued by Met Eireann for today :

"STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Rainfall totals of 20 to 30 mm possible today with the highest amounts in mountaineous areas.
Issued:Monday 28 December 2015 10:00
Valid:Monday 28 December 2015 10:00 to Monday 28 December 2015 18:00"

Lumi

Moderate rain in Galway City at the moment in just a light SSW'ly breeze.
4.0mm recorded since midnight bringing my monthly total to 279.8mm - so far...
Gardens and land surrounding the city are sodden and waterlogged - Dec 2015 will come close to if not beat the record rainfall in Nov 2009