Gameweek 2 Captain

SantryRed · 10-08-2015 11:22am

Kane or Benteke for me.

gazump123 · 10-08-2015 11:26am

Think I'll go with Kane this week.

Ocditsme · 10-08-2015 11:36am

Tekkers . Triple points captain
Time to take the plunge

Ziegler1988 · 10-08-2015 11:39am

I picked Kane to captain him this GW and will stick to it. Rooney VC

PARlance · 10-08-2015 11:46am

Ocditsme wrote: »

Tekkers . Triple points captain
Time to take the plunge

Definitely time.
Liverpool scoring for fun, Tekkers unstoppable, every other big hitter has had their leg amputated and only 37 gw's to go.

CSF · 10-08-2015 11:47am

Ocditsme wrote: »

Tekkers . Triple points captain
Time to take the plunge

Don't. Do it on a double game week.

SSLguru · 10-08-2015 11:49am

Aguero ??

internet_user · 10-08-2015 11:58am

Kane or Rooney

Tugboats · 10-08-2015 12:25pm

4 people in my 15 man paid league used the triple captain already

Am i missing something or is there a method to this madness?

jimmii · 10-08-2015 12:32pm

Tugboats wrote: »

4 people in my 15 man paid league used the triple captain already Am i missing something or is there a method to this madness?

Missing nothing its just madness. Its like in a race when you get a few lads who go sprinting off just so they can say they were winning for a while then end up coming last!

froog · 10-08-2015 12:57pm

rooney. seriously tempted by walcott though!

CSF · 10-08-2015 12:57pm

froog wrote: »

rooney. seriously tempted by walcott though!

Why?

froog · 10-08-2015 1:08pm

CSF wrote: »

Why?

i think he will start, and possibly at CF. the theory is that wenger prefers the pace of him on the road for counter attacks.

Brainiac2000 · 10-08-2015 1:10pm

CSF wrote: »

Didn't you watch West Ham yesterday? Given we are going on GW1 form they're not a plum opposition fixture.

I saw it all right, looked fairly beatable to me..

CSF · 10-08-2015 1:11pm

froog wrote: »

i think he will start, and possibly at CF. the theory is that wenger prefers the pace of him on the road for counter attacks.

It's possible, but Sanchez will be knocking at the door too.

Lemlin · 10-08-2015 1:11pm

PARlance wrote: »

Definitely time.
Liverpool scoring for fun, Tekkers unstoppable, every other big hitter has had their leg amputated and only 37 gw's to go.

Who has replaced PARlance with Deluded Brendan?

CSF · 10-08-2015 1:13pm

Brainiac2000 wrote: »

I saw it all right, looked fairly beatable to me..

Fair enough, wouldn't be expecting West Ham to lose myself.

Benimar · 10-08-2015 1:16pm

CSF wrote: »

Fair enough, wouldn't be expecting West Ham to lose myself.

Either would I but more importantly I don't see Mahrez getting next nor near 15 points. Wouldn't captain him in a million years.

PARlance · 10-08-2015 1:17pm

Lemlin wrote: »

Who has replaced PARlance with Deluded Brendan?

I'm trying to channel my delusion into comments rather than team selection this year.

Deluded Brendan & Boring Milner look like they could give us some entertainment this year on twitter.

PARlance · 10-08-2015 1:22pm

froog wrote: »

i think he will start, and possibly at CF. the theory is that wenger prefers the pace of him on the road for counter attacks.

Can see that happening a bit and it might be worth keeping him for another week on that basis but captaining him is a bold move at best.

If I thought he would avoid a drop, and his replacement avoid a rise, then I would consider a final throw of the dice.

froog · 10-08-2015 1:24pm

PARlance wrote: »

Can see that happening a bit and it might be worth keeping him for another week on that basis but captaining him is a bold move at best.

If I thought he would avoid a drop, and his replacement avoid a rise, then I would consider a final throw of the dice.

ya it's my "after 10 cans early hours saturday morning" option.

SSLguru · 10-08-2015 1:42pm

Aguero ?

TheDazzler · 10-08-2015 1:53pm

Benimar wrote: »

Two things persuading me NOT to captain Rooney, one logical and one psychological.

Logical - he hasn't scored away to Villa since 2007

Psychological - after the disaster of GW1 I don't want GW2 to be ruined before Saturday with a captain fail!!

Neither of those are valid reasons but the psychological one is the closest, in that you will have a real emotional reaction if it pans out as you say. Surely you're being a glass half empty person though as him scoring a brace will surely make your weekend before it's even begun?

Regarding your 'logical' reason, it doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
Is there a real reason Rooney hasn't scored away at Villa since 2007? Or is it simply variance?
Well Villa were a pretty decent side around 2007 and the years immediately following it so that might be one reason. That longer exists.
Also in the last couple of years, Villa would have been a pretty defensive side under Lambert. Again, this no longer exists.

Everton have drawn 2-2 on the opening day against a promoted side for the past 3 years.
Unless you can pick a valid reason for why that is happening, it is just a coincidence.
As is the Rooney stat at Villa.

CSF · 10-08-2015 2:39pm

TheDazzler wrote: »

Neither of those are valid reasons but the psychological one is the closest, in that you will have a real emotional reaction if it pans out as you say. Surely you're being a glass half empty person though as him scoring a brace will surely make your weekend before it's even begun?

Regarding your 'logical' reason, it doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
Is there a real reason Rooney hasn't scored away at Villa since 2007? Or is it simply variance?
Well Villa were a pretty decent side around 2007 and the years immediately following it so that might be one reason. That longer exists.
Also in the last couple of years, Villa would have been a pretty defensive side under Lambert. Again, this no longer exists.

Everton have drawn 2-2 on the opening day against a promoted side for the past 3 years.
Unless you can pick a valid reason for why that is happening, it is just a coincidence.
As is the Rooney stat at Villa.

These sort of stats are rarely coincidental. There's usually an accompanying reason if it's not immediately obvious. Particularly over such a long space of time.

Benimar · 10-08-2015 2:54pm

TheDazzler wrote: »

Neither of those are valid reasons but the psychological one is the closest, in that you will have a real emotional reaction if it pans out as you say. Surely you're being a glass half empty person though as him scoring a brace will surely make your weekend before it's even begun?

Regarding your 'logical' reason, it doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
Is there a real reason Rooney hasn't scored away at Villa since 2007? Or is it simply variance?
Well Villa were a pretty decent side around 2007 and the years immediately following it so that might be one reason. That longer exists.
Also in the last couple of years, Villa would have been a pretty defensive side under Lambert. Again, this no longer exists.

Everton have drawn 2-2 on the opening day against a promoted side for the past 3 years.
Unless you can pick a valid reason for why that is happening, it is just a coincidence.
As is the Rooney stat at Villa.

Rooney has played at Villa Park 6 times since (he missed one game). In that time Man U have won 3 and drawn 3 while scoring 9. Thats 1.5 goals a game in a fixture they never lose and Rooney has none of them.

If he does score a brace I'll take his (surely 13) points as I have him anyway, but I'm not sure I can captain him based on those stats.

TheDazzler · 10-08-2015 3:23pm

Benimar wrote: »

Rooney has played at Villa Park 6 times since (he missed one game). In that time Man U have won 3 and drawn 3 while scoring 9. Thats 1.5 goals a game in a fixture they never lose and Rooney has none of them.

If he does score a brace I'll take his (surely 13) points as I have him anyway, but I'm not sure I can captain him based on those stats.

Let's say Rooney scores 25% of goals United score. That's generous but however.
How statistically significant is it that he hasn't scored in those 9 goals? Not at all.
There will be some team he has those sort of stats against. It just happens to be Villa away.
As a matter of interest, what are his stats at home against Villa?

CSF wrote: »

These sort of stats are rarely coincidental. There's usually an accompanying reason if it's not immediately obvious. Particularly over such a long space of time.

These sort of stats are almost ALWAYS coincidental. 8 years is a long space of time but 6 games is not a large sample size.

Unless you can pinpoint a reason that Rooney has not scored at Villa, such as not liking their shirt colour, there is no reason to assume that he will not revert back to his normal scoring ratio.
Villa historically in the time period we are talking about will have been more difficult to score against than Villa are now.
Rooney is not 'jinxed' against Villa.
As Fantasy players, we need to rid ourselves of these biases.

Benimar · 10-08-2015 3:31pm

TheDazzler wrote: »

As a matter of interest, what are his stats at home against Villa?

As Fantasy players, we need to rid ourselves of these biases.

He has scored 9 in 7 games at home.

I don't see it as a bias. If random player A scored 9 in 7 at home and 0 in 6 away, I'd suggest captaining him at home but not away. In fact he was my captain until I researched that stat.

Maybe Rooney will score on Friday but I'm looking at all captaincy options and his poor record at Villa Park is surely a consideration?

Dice75 · 10-08-2015 3:35pm

Have my team/transfers & captains pretty much nailed down till International break & possible WC. So Defoe this week.

TheDazzler · 10-08-2015 3:45pm

Benimar wrote: »

He has scored 9 in 7 games at home.

I don't see it as a bias. If random player A scored 9 in 7 at home and 0 in 6 away, I'd suggest captaining him at home but not away. In fact he was my captain until I researched that stat.

Maybe Rooney will score on Friday but I'm looking at all captaincy options and his poor record at Villa Park is surely a consideration?

9 in 7 is pretty impressive!
So that proves its not personnel dependent. It's not that Ciaran Clark knows Rooney inside out. Even if it was personnel dependent, it becomes irrelevant as the years go by as the personnel changes so much anyway.
So if this tiny sample size is statistically significant (it isn't) then it's something about playing away at Villa park.
Is he allergic to the grass? Other United players can score but he just can't. Do the Brummie chants scramble his brain?

Wayne has scored 247 goals.
If he scored 200 at home and only 47 away, then you would know he has a difficulty scoring in alien climates. I presume that isn't the case.
I presume he scored something like 20-25% of United goals home and away.
Sometimes you will get statistical glitches like this. It means nothing.
He has overachieved at home against Villa and underachieved away.
If he could play home and away 1000 times against Villa, those figures would correlate a little more.

Unless you can give a reasonable explanation for the huge discrepancy, it is a bias to think there is anything more to it.

Benimar · 10-08-2015 5:04pm

TheDazzler wrote: »

Wayne has scored 247 goals.
If he scored 200 at home and only 47 away, then you would know he has a difficulty scoring in alien climates. I presume that isn't the case.
I presume he scored something like 20-25% of United goals home and away.
Sometimes you will get statistical glitches like this. It means nothing.
He has overachieved at home against Villa and underachieved away.
If he could play home and away 1000 times against Villa, those figures would correlate a little more.

Unless you can give a reasonable explanation for the huge discrepancy, it is a bias to think there is anything more to it.

Another stat for you. In the 2014/15 EPL Rooney scored 13 goals of which precisely 1, yes ONE, was scored away from home.

Yes, he could score on Friday night (these runs have to end sometime) but 0 goals in his last 6 at Villa Park coupled with one away goal all last season is enough to doubt placing the armband on him.

It's not like I'm saying he's a rubbish player, but as much as you might say that the sample isn't statistically significant, there is nothing to suggest that Friday will be different either.

I'm not captaining him, that's my view. I'm sure everyone is capable of making up their own mind on this.

Gameweek 2 Captain

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