Tour de France 2015 thread **Please use spoiler tags before midnight**

Beasty

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D9Male

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

Yea but a free role does not a GC contender make.

I know that, but it means he is not going to have to hand Contador a wheel until things get really serious in the third week, if at all.

For instance, Quintana had a free role in the 2013 Tour, and that gave him a chance of the podium. He was not called back to help Valverde in the crosswind stage. Contador was given a free role behind Leipheimer in the 2007 Tour and he won it. Same story with Aru (behind Scarponi) in the Giro last year.

My point is that I think Majka and Fuglsgang are not far behind the Big 4. And I think they will very much be live Plan B's (or is it Plans B?) for their team.

Interesting to see how Fuglsgang climbs in Suisse today, by the way. And Pinot.

MPFG

I don;t really see Majka & Fuglsang 'not that far' behind the big 4


I think those positions are more likely to be filled with Pinot, Bardet ,TJVG, Valverde,Purito, Mollema, Talansky/Dan Martin, Porte ...riders with a batter pedigree and who are also riding as team leaders...(well not sure who Cannondale's leader will be)

Maybe I haven't seen these great performances this year that warrant these labels for Majka & Fuglsang

D9Male

That is a fair enough opinion. And I would admit that the likelihood is that you are right and these lads will be out with the washing. But I have a sneaky feeling based on what I have seen in the past 12 months.

I think Majka was the second best climber in last season's Tour and he has been absolutely monstrous in the first few stages in Suisse. Working like a dog for Sagan. Also last season he finished 6th in the Giro and won Pologne, so I think he has a good chance of winning a GT in the next few years. He is only 25 so he is clearly still improving.

Fuglsgang is a little bit more difficult to justify. He rode very strongly in support of Nibali in Romandie earlier this season. And he cliimbed very well in Paris Nice. He was also a superb domestique for Nibali in the Tour last year, including in the cobbled stage. Last year he sacrificed GC ambitions for Nibali, but the previous year he finished 7th in GC. So I don't think it is a wild prediction to say he has a chance of being on the podium.

I would not be surprised to see him respond to the Astana system in a similar way to the way in which Landa took a big step forward in the Giro.

MPFG

Well I suppose you have to go with your feelings ...and who knows maybe you will be right

If cycling is one thing ...its unpredictable


Maybe Fuglsang is a good bet for a top 5 to 10 then ??

Majka I think will be brought into work very hard for Contador who will demand as much as SKY and his team are not on the whole that good in the mountains so it means Majka will have to work his socks off

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

If things did go in a certain way, not too odd to see Majka doing something similar to Landa in the Giro all right. Is Fuglsang that much of a mountain goat though?

MPFG

Sorry ...no way is Rafa Majka going to be2nd on GC in the Tour as Landa was in the Giro...Landa also won 2 stages and was better than at Contador at climbing if you exclude TT results

Quintana , Nibali, Froome, Contador , TjVG, Pinot, Bardet, Purito, Valverde, Costa, Martin, Talansky, Yates, Hesjedal, Kreuziger , Barguil, Mollema, Kelderman, Uran, Porte, Thomas, etc will see to that

Majka won 2 stages last year in a depleted field where loads of the favourites had crashed and withdrawn or continued on not at their best

And he went around for the first half of the race sitting at the back not working so he was fresher than anyone when he won the stages in the final week .....I don't know where this view that Rafa Majka is the second coming has come from...he is a good climber like about a dozen other guys but 2nd on GC in the Tour is really pushing it.....

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

After

Froome / Contador / Nibali/ Quintana/

Who would be outside bets or 2nd tier contenders?!

Maybe

Landa/Majeika/Aru/Pinot/Bardet?!

A

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

MPFG wrote: »

Majka won 2 stages last year in a depleted field where loads of the favourites had crashed and withdrawn or continued on not at their best

Why does everybody keep harping back to 'depleted field...favourites crashed out...or not at their best'? Those who won something did so in a race where Contador and Froome couldn't finish it, what counts is they started it. They nearly deserve more credit for winning under the circumstances than if Contador and Froome had continued on and everything had been dandy.

hinault

Arequipa wrote: »

After

Froome / Contador / Nibali/ Quintana/

Who would be outside bets or 2nd tier contenders?!

Maybe

Landa/Majeika/Aru/Pinot/Bardet?!

A

Landa had a great Giro.

Geraint Thomas? Pierre Rolland? Adam Talansky?

MPFG

Kavrocks wrote: »

Why does everybody keep harping back to 'depleted field...favourites crashed out...or not at their best'? Those who won something did so in a race where Contador and Froome couldn't finish it, what counts is they started it. They nearly deserve more credit for winning under the circumstances than if Contador and Froome had continued on and everything had been dandy.

No one is taking away the validity of his wins only putting it in context of the field this year which is what we are doing as a speculative exercise....I didn't say his wins were less prestigious than any other Tour stage wins

With a different filed this year my point is it will be hard for him to reach 2nd of GC as other people are suggesting ..and that is fair enough

Gosh I didn't know Rafal Majka was so popular on this forum

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

But MPFG, you're saying there's no way Majka will do a Landa. Before the Giro though did you think Landa was going to do a Landa, or was that a bit of a surprise to you?

I'm not saying what Majka will do btw & would expect SaxoT will be all about Contador, but before the Giro who did most people consider the better cyclist - Landa or Majka?

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

MPFG wrote: »

No one is taking away the validity of his wins only putting it in context of the field this year which is what we are doing as a speculative exercise....I didn't say his wins were less prestigious than any other Tour stage wins

With a different filed this year my point is it will be hard for him to reach 2nd of GC as other people are suggesting ..and that is fair enough

Gosh I didn't know Rafal Majka was so popular on this forum

In context? The context is the big favourites from this year (except Quintana) were there.

I don't think Majka will be 2nd on GC. I agree with you there. I just don't see why Contador and Froome crashing out makes his wins, Nibali's overall win or any other win in last years Tour any less significant?

Arequipa wrote: »

Who would be outside bets or 2nd tier contenders?!

Maybe

Landa/Majeika/Aru/Pinot/Bardet?

I doubt Landa and Aru will be at the Tour. They are supposed to be focusing on the Vuelta and Nibali has come out and said he doesn't want Aru at the Tour this year.

I like Bardet and Martin (but maybe that's because he's Irish).

D9Male

MPFG wrote: »

Sorry ...no way is Rafa Majka going to be2nd on GC in the Tour as Landa was in the Giro...Landa also won 2 stages and was better than at Contador at climbing if you exclude TT results

Quintana , Nibali, Froome, Contador , TjVG, Pinot, Bardet, Purito, Valverde, Costa, Martin, Talansky, Yates, Hesjedal, Kreuziger , Barguil, Mollema, Kelderman, Uran, Porte, Thomas, etc will see to that

Majka won 2 stages last year in a depleted field where loads of the favourites had crashed and withdrawn or continued on not at their best

And he went around for the first half of the race sitting at the back not working so he was fresher than anyone when he won the stages in the final week .....I don't know where this view that Rafa Majka is the second coming has come from...he is a good climber like about a dozen other guys but 2nd on GC in the Tour is really pushing it.....

I think you underestimate Majka.

Fair enough if you think he is behind the Big 4. Clearly he is, but as was said above, cycling can surprise us all, so I don't rule out anything.

Majka first came to my attention when Riis announced he would lead Saxo in the 2012 Giro. I had never heard of him till then. Injury intervened, so he didn't ride, but he made the line in the Vuelta that year and was an absolutely brilliant domestique for Contador that year. Some epic rides in the mountains.

In 2013 Giro he led for the first time, and finished 7th overall. He then rode very well in the Vuelta as support for Contador.

After a 6th in the Giro in 2014, he had a great Tour last season. He took it easy for the first week of the Tour (AFTER THE GIRO!!!!!), but his performances in the mountain stages were 2nd, 1st, 109th, 1st and 3rd. He was the second best climber in the Tour.

TjVG, Pinot, Bardet, Purito, Valverde, Costa, Martin, Talansky, Yates, Hesjedal, Kreuziger , Barguil, Mollema, Kelderman, Uran, Porte, Thomas,

For me, this bit is a bit rich. Of those above I would say that less than a handful have a GT pedigree as good as Majka's. Uran, Valverde, TJ, Purito and Hesjedal but apart from TJ and Uran, these are all aging.

To say that riders like Porte, Thomas Mollema, Yates and Talansky will see to Majka is pushing it even more than pelevin, I think

MPFG

pelevin wrote: »

But MPFG, you're saying there's no way Majka will do a Landa. Before the Giro though did you think Landa was going to do a Landa, or was that a bit of a surprise to you?

I'm not saying what Majka will do btw & would expect SaxoT will be all about Contador, but before the Giro who did most people consider the better cyclist - Landa or Majka?

I didn;t say no way ...you are putting words into my mouth ...I said in my opinion given what we know of all the riders that I don;t think Rafal Majka will be 2nd on GC in the Tour ...opinions are based on what has already happened
This is speculation from what we know ...a simple concept

And you argrument about not knowing about Landa can be said about anything ....maybe Costa the Columbian can come 2nd on GC ?? by the same token....or the Simon Yates or Richie Porte ....of course there could be a left field candidate but its hardly a basic for putting your savings on it

It seems to me some people are miffed that I disagree that Majka will end up second on GC at the Tour...sorry but its my opinion

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

D9Male wrote: »

To say that riders like Porte, Thomas Mollema, Yates and Talansky will see to Majka is pushing it even more than pelevin, I think

What do you mean pushing it even more than pelevin?! What did I say that was so outlandish? I thought I just wrote that Majka could well be very impressive & in most minds had a better pedigree than Landa before his Giro.

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

MPFG wrote: »

I didn;t say no way ...you are putting words into my mouth ...I said in my opinion given what we know of all the riders that I don;t think Rafal Majka will be 2nd on GC in the Tour ...opinions are based on what has already happened
This is speculation from what we know ...a simple concept

And you argrument about not knowing about Landa can be said about anything ....maybe Costa the Columbian can come 2nd on GC ?? by the same token....or the Simon Yates or Richie Porte ....of course there could be a left filed candidate but its hardly a basic for putting your savings on it

It seems to me some people are miffed that I disagree that Majka will end up second on GC at the Tour...sorry but its my opinion

All I was saying is Majka could well be very good, not that I'll bet on him getting a podium place, and he genuinjely was very impressive in the mountains last year in the Tour. Don't know why you think I'm miffed.

MPFG

pelevin wrote: »

What do you mean pushing it even more than pelevin?! What did I say that was so outlandish? I thought I just wrote that Majka could well be very impressive & in most minds had a better pedigree than Landa before his Giro.

Well actually you said he would do a Landa at the Tour ...which is come 2nd on GC

D9Male

pelevin wrote: »

What do you mean pushing it even more than pelevin?! What did I say that was so outlandish? I thought I just wrote that Majka could well be very impressive & in most minds had a better pedigree than Landa before his Giro.

I just meant that saying Barguil and Yates ahead of Majka in terms of GC prospects for the Tour is more outlandish than saying Majka can "do a Landa".

I am agreeing with you.

D9Male

Anyway, I am glad we are talking about riders other than the Big 4 in the Tour. I think there is too much emphasis being placed on the Big 4, when riders like Pinot, Bardet, Tejay and others have a very good chance on a course that is not really going to suit Froome or Contador given the lack of long, multi-climb stages and the lack of ITT mileage.

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

Though I'd have thought TVG could have done with the inclusion of a proper individual time trial. Incidentally I don't think it should even be in any way up for debate - regardless of what may be deemed to make for an exciting race, individual time-trialling at some significant level should have to be part of a 3 week grand tour.

D9Male

Yes I agree. I actually hate the parcours this year. So many uphill finishes, very few descent finishes, not enough ITT. But the worst thing in my view is having a TTT after a full week of racing, including a cobbled stage. We all know how many riders crash out in the first week. UCI rules are for no TTT after Stage 4, but they got a dispensation. There is every chance that some teams could be down to 7 riders or fewer. That could make a big difference, and it is a difference caused by bad luck.

Uphill finishes in Huy, Le Havre, Mur de Bretagne, Pierre-St-Martin, Cauterets, Plateau de Beille, Rodez, Mende, Pra Lou, La Tousuirre, Alpe d'Huez. I make that 11 uphill finishes. 12 if you count the TTT. Ludicrous.

I can't describe how much I hate the Alpe stage. Just Galibier, 20km of false flat and then the same climb we seem to see every year.

The Giro course this year was a thing of beauty. This is a monstrosity.

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

MPFG wrote: »

Well actually you said he would do a Landa at the Tour ...which is come 2nd on GC

You're talking about me putting words in your mouth?!

MPFG

pelevin wrote: »

You're talking about me putting words in your mouth?!

Well what else does it mean ???
beat Contador on the climbs ??

Watching the climbing at Tour de Suiise I am so glad I am not under estimating Majka
After all 'how rich' would it be for me to compare him to Pinot or Bardet ???

D9Male

Majka is at the TdS to work for Sagan.

Personally I think he is a better climber than Pinot and Bardet. Today's result in Suisse does not change my point of view. But there is not much in it. The issue I had was with you putting guys like Barguil, Dan Martin and Porte ahead of Majka in GT GC terms.

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

D9Male wrote: »

a course that is not really going to suit Froome or Contador

Yeah I have to say I think I out of the top 4 it suits Nibali the best and Quintana second but that could all change depending on the 1st week and the TTT. I'm not sure Bardet or Pinot will have a good TTT. We could easily see them losing a minute to the likes of Tejay, Contador, Nibali and Quintana. Valverde could be a good outside bet though depending on how things go inside Movistar. Anecdotal evidence seems to suggest he's favoured over Quintana.

D9Male

On paper, the course really suits Valverde. Not only will he have a chance of beating the other GC contenders in stages like Mende, Rodez, Huy and Mur de Bretagne, but he will also have a chance of getting the "bonifications" in those stages as Sean Kelly says. 10/6/4 seconds for the first three.

He was sizzling hot in the spring. I wouldn't read too much into the Dauphiné, as he was surely undercooked for that race.

MPFG

D9Male wrote: »

Majka is at the TdS to work for Sagan.

Personally I think he is a better climber than Pinot and Bardet. Today's result in Suisse does not change my point of view. But there is not much in it. The issue I had was with you putting guys like Barguil, Dan Martin and Porte ahead of Majka in GT GC terms.

Pinot & Bardet are pure class ..and you keep changing the goal posts..they were in your original list of 'rich' comparisons and yes i think all those riders I mention are as good if not better than Majka

As for working for others so are lots of riders on that climb today , Henao for Thomas for example but still managed to beat the second coming as did Tom Doumlin

two weeks to go to the Tour he would want to get his skates on if he is to come second :rolleyes:

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

MPFG wrote: »

Well what else does it mean ???

It means what it says.

I said btw I wouldn't personally bet on him getting a podium place but then again how many here would have expected Landa to do what he did, & given how good Majka's Tour was last year, basically why pretend to certainty ahead of the Tour.

And as far as I can see no one remotely equated him to the second coming as you've twice alluded to, which seems an odd willingness to escalate things to unpleasant & sarcastic levels.

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

I think it the yellow jersey will go to the GC contender who peaks in form right in the middle of the Tour...

It seems to be tricky to reach that top end form.. The body is on a knife edge of fitness.. Power to weight ratio is really high... But also the body is susceptable to colds, bugs etc as immunity is compromised: they are so healthy/fit, that they are unhealthy!

It would be great for some of the 2nd rung guys to really peak in the tour & attack the top 4....
It would be fab is Dan Martin wins a stage & gets a top ten finish....