Tour de France 2015 thread **Please use spoiler tags before midnight**

Arequipa

I am looking forward to the TDF 2015..
Barring injury/crashes/illness.. There should be an exciting lineup..

Who do you think will win & why?

My favourite rider is Contador: i love his attacking style, but he may be fatigued after the Giro.

Froome is a strong contender: he had a mixed up Spring with illness & injury.. But is back from a big stint of training at altitude in Tenerife.. When he goes @ full gas in the mountains few can keep with him...

Nibali is a dark horse.. A really strong all rounder & death defying descender..

Quintana is an amazing climber.. But is young & very light.. So he mightnt have the power of the others in the TT's....

Cant wait...

What you think?

Lusk_Doyle

Nibali won't get within an asses roar of the other three unless they have crashes or mechanicals. He is more a diesel engine and doesn't have the accelerarion of the others to stay with them.

lennymc

Alberto Contador

nibali destroyed the others on the cobbles last year. Froome DNF, Copntador 2.37 down. Quintana doesn't like cobbles - didnt he abandon some of the classics earlier in the year? I wouldnt be so quick to write nibbles off just yet.

Hopefully nibbles does the same again this year forcing attacks from the rest. Think stage 4 is the cobbles this year. Also the TT's are not as long this year.

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

I know they've tried to change the make-up of the Points jersey this year to prevent it being a foregone conclusion for Sagan, especially boosting the points for stage winners. Given the incredible year Kristoff's had, & by contrast despite Tour of California, the disappointing year for Sagan, I'd have thought Kristoff could be in with a real shout of that, and much better than the bookies odds reflect. He's still nothing like the climber Sagan can be though so we'll see how that reflects.

In terms of the overall, I'd see it as total guesswork in terms of who'll win. I'd like to see Nibali do a great Tour though Froome & Quintana should be certainly the outright favourites, & Contador surely up against it.

Kavrocks

Thibaut Pinot

I think the climbs and route suits Nibali quite well but can we count on Froome and Contador losing so much time again? I'm not sure on Quintana and how he will get along with Valverde. How will Contador get on when Tinkoff will be trying to win the points jersey and sprints too with Sagan? Will he have any help to take away from Contador or will he be out to fend on his own? Will Porte bounce back for Froome?

The list of questions goes on. It makes it a very interesting race again this year though. Lets just hope it lives up to it and comes close to the excitement the Giro brought!

pelevin

Thibaut Pinot

I meant to add that - by the sounds of it Tinkoff team will be all about Contador with Sagan's Points jersey a very minor consideration if at all. Words are cheap though & with circumstances that could easily change.
Katusha even with J Rodriguez should be very focused on Kristoff.

irishrover99

Contador looks tired
Froome looks sick
Nibali looks out of form- again
Quintana crashes tightening his shoes

So who knows. Will be interesting racing

Dcully

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

Nibali won't get within an asses roar of the other three unless they have crashes or mechanicals. He is more a diesel engine and doesn't have the accelerarion of the others to stay with them.

Jaysus i wouldnt be so sure,sometimes his diesel engine is more than enough,just look how well Hesjedal with his diesel engine done in the giro.
If Astana perform anything like they did in the giro Nibali will be in a great place.

A battle between Nibs,Bertie and Froome is a long time coming, we were robbed of it last year, throw quintana into the mix and it could be great entertainment.

retalivity

Honestly cannot call it.

Contador may be too tired
Nibali may destroy everyone on the cobbles
Froome may crash again
Quintana might lose a chunk of time in the TT...

Would love to see Quintana dance away from everyone on the mountains though

lennymc

Alberto Contador

the individual TT is only 13k long this year - cant see anyone loosing lots of time on that. The team TT is 28k long. On recent form you would have to be looking at Astana for that, unless Etixx up their game. The stages look to be much shorter this year, similar to the giro, so hopefully we will have the same exciting racing!

devonp

Alberto Contador

retalivity wrote: »

Honestly cannot call it.

Contador may be too tired
Nibali may destroy everyone on the cobbles
Froome may crash again
Quintana might lose a chunk of time in the TT...

Would love to see Quintana dance away from everyone on the mountains though

+1 yes me too, hope he dishes it out to them on the mountains

lmguillou

Thibault Pinot! 30 years after Bernard Hinault it s about time for a french rider to bring back the yellow jersey home... I wish

MPFG

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Purito
4. Nibli

Contador about 5th or 6th


Think Nibali will make time up on the cobbles but lose it in the mountains

of course the above is based on no crashes or with drawls.....but that never happens

But looking at the fleld it must be the strongest in a long time
Valverde, Pinot, Bardet, Pozzo, Mollema, Talansky,TJVG, Peraud, Martin.Hesjedal,Uran.Aru,Barguil,Fuglsang,TenDam,Kelderman,Majka,Kwait, Rolland,Yates twins,Scarponi,Costa,Kruijswijk ,Gesink

And SKY doms alone ...Porte, Roche,Henao,Konig,Poels,Thomas, Nieve, Stannard

Good luck getting atop 10 in that field ... Wonder if Zubeldia can pull it off again

manwithaplan

Nibali for me. Solid all round and with a strong team. While I like him as a rider, I hope I'm wrong about him winning as Astana are extremely hard to love.

joxerjohn

Froome dog for me, he will very determined to make up for the disappointment of last year. And I think it will be Nibali and Astana the danger.

It will be interesting to see how Froome goes in the Dauphine we will see if he is in form.

Shedite27

Just had a look at how PP are seeing it....

2/1 Quintana
3/1 Froome
4/1 Contador
5/1 Nibali

Not a whole lot in it.

Brian?

Nairo Quintana

Shedite27 wrote: »

Just had a look at how PP are seeing it....

2/1 Quintana
3/1 Froome
4/1 Contador
5/1 Nibali

Not a whole lot in it.

I'm tempted to take that 3/1 about Froome now, it'll be shorter after the Dauphine I reckon.

I'd like to see Contador do it, but I'm struggling to see where Contador can put real time into Quintana or Froome. I'm just hoping it's not a classic Skybot performance that turns it into a cake walk for Froome.

My prediction:

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Nibali.

I reckon Contador will go on a crazy attack and lose minutes on the GC because he's losing. He won't ride within himself for a podium.

Pudsy33

Nairo Quintana

The lack of TT miles handicaps Froome to some degree. I honestly think Berty will win it.

YeahOK

Nairo Quintana

Bertie at 4/1 seems a decent bet. Froome will crash, bonk, put any other obstacle in his own way that he can, make no mistake of that. Nibali won't be let get away with another cobble ride like last year, so can't see his diesel engine getting the better of Bertie's explosive pace in the hills and I just don't rate Quintana as a TDF winner / contender.

JohnBee

Definitely think Astana were playing a long term game by working on Contador even though a win for them was not in sight. Contador's main issue is his team, he rode the Giro like a sole rider with no team, hopefully this will not be the case.

As for Nibali? We all know he would not have won last year if his main contenders had completed the race.

BTW I thought Froome was not going to race TDF this year or am I imagining that?

Trojan

JohnBee wrote: »

Definitely think Astana were playing a long term game by working on Contador even though a win for them was not in sight. Contador's main issue is his team, he rode the Giro like a sole rider with no team, hopefully this will not be the case.

I think this was the Astana plan too, they were putting him under all sorts of pressure. Mind you, they still should have gone for the GC win on stage 19.

JohnBee

Trojan wrote: »

I think this was the Astana plan too, they were putting him under all sorts of pressure. Mind you, they still should have gone for the GC win on stage 19.

In terms of GC win, no doubt Landa's performance may have confused the overall team goals. He was legendary and I reckon if he was given the go ahead he definitely would have been a contender for the GC. No doubt being the domestique for Aru did not facilitate this.

unichall

Bertie was lacking support in the mountains in the Giro but he will have a very different team supporting him in the Tour. He will have at least Basso, majka, krueziger, Sagan, rogers, kiserlovski plus a few others.

That is a much stronger team than he had at the Giro, plus for all the strength of Astana they found it very difficult to put him under pressure. I'm not saying its a guaranteed win but imo he won't be looking at 5/6th place, he will be there or there about with all the other favourites.

happytramp

YeahOK wrote: »

Nibali won't be let get away with another cobble ride like last year.

Not sure what he did last year is something you 'get away with' i'd say its more a case of something that you either can or you can't do.

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

Its an exciting prospect!
Thanks for the feedback..
I think Contador and Nibali are really clever, seasoned pros...if they are fit, they will be there or thereabouts..

Contador is tough as nails..remember last season, he broke his shinbone in a 75km crash,...tried to cycle for over 25km and then eventually retired from the race..
He then recovers and wins the Vuelta..doping issues aside, he is one tough mof*!

Nibali is a real all rounder and has the mental strength to lead and win a tour..

Quintana is an incredible climber...but I have no idea how he will fare..


I think Froome is the danger man..he is hungry, rested and has a fab team behind him..
Any of you see him in the Dauphine last year..?
When Froome is 100% he puts down incredible power and cadence in the mountains and at his peak, I think the other contenders will struggle to hold his wheel...
Porte will ride himslef into the ground as a lead-out man...

Poor Contador has a much weaker team in terms of domestics to lead him up the climbs..It is one reason i admire him so much..he generally does it on his own!
It was impressive how he ran into trouble in the Sestriere stage and didn't panic and limited his losses...

So yea overall, if Froome keeps his eyes off his power metre and stem long enough not to crash..i think he'll win!

MPFG

The reason I think Contador will be 5th/6th is because he will only accept 1st or broke....so he will go all out & lose time trying to win

Otherwise he would be 2nd (or 3rd)

D9Male

pelevin wrote: »

I know they've tried to change the make-up of the Points jersey this year to prevent it being a foregone conclusion for Sagan, especially boosting the points for stage winners. Given the incredible year Kristoff's had, & by contrast despite Tour of California, the disappointing year for Sagan, I'd have thought Kristoff could be in with a real shout of that, and much better than the bookies odds reflect. He's still nothing like the climber Sagan can be though so we'll see how that reflects.

In terms of the overall, I'd see it as total guesswork in terms of who'll win. I'd like to see Nibali do a great Tour though Froome & Quintana should be certainly the outright favourites, & Contador surely up against it.

Interesting. Problem is the profiles suit Sagan more than Kristoff, with so many uphill finishes. In fact, I think Valverde would be a bet if they bet each way on green. He'll surely be 33/1 or more and so few stages will mean Cav and Kittel are out of contention.

D9Male

Less cobbles this year, and unless the weather is just as bad, I can't see big time gaps between GC contenders.

ROK ON

In extreme conditions (very hot or very cold) then Nibali will win.
Froome will have strongest team and will be fresh and motivated - hope to see Deignan there as pound for poundage is among the best climbing domestiques on long steep climbs.
Quintana will win eventually but this year will have to contend with Valverde, and that particular dude rides for no one but himself.
Bertie had a disappointing team but he has rarely needed a team. He will animate the tour but i find it tough to believe thatbthentour and giro is doable. Maybe the giro Vuelta given the gap and the ability to re-peak.
With Purito, Peraud, Teejay, Roland, Yates, Talansky et al it promises to be lively.

MPFG

ROK ON wrote: »

hope to see Deignan there as pound for poundage is among the best climbing domestiques on long steep climbs.

I agree totally ...he did a fantastic job at the Vuelata for Froome last year ...last man standing on long climbs in last week with only the top 5 remaining
(he is about 7 /8 kilos lighter than Nico)

But SKY have so many to choose from however he has a good chance given Nieve wasn't great at the Giro, Poles & Kennaugh are back from injury and I am not convinced Koing is domestique material

Brian?

Nairo Quintana

MPFG wrote: »

The reason I think Contador will be 5th/6th is because he will only accept 1st or broke....so he will go all out & lose time trying to win

Otherwise he would be 2nd (or 3rd)

It'll be 2013 all over again, I agree.

Lusk_Doyle

happytramp wrote: »

Not sure what he did last year is something you 'get away with' i'd say its more a case of something that you either can or you can't do.

He gained what, max two mins or so if even on that stage? He'd lose time in the tt no matter the distance of it to both froome and contador and won't be able to keep up with the attacks if they attack and keep it lit as his more steady approach won't enable him to claw time back. The team that Bertie will have will be tops. The challenge that he faced at the giro was not near what the tour will be and he practically did it all by himself. Expect TS to be all over everything in the tour. I see no reason why he can't or won't be in it to win it.

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

I saw an interview of Froome at the Dauphine.. He was talking about Nibali & whether he held back a bit at the Dauphine last year, so as to peak in the Tour...

It is hard to know what the best prep for the Tour is:

1) per Contador; ride & win the Giro, rest up & straight into the Tour

2) per Froome, Nibali .. Steady build up including the Dauphine.. So as peak for the Tour..

3) per Quintana.. More low key...

Either way, i think they have all done big stints', training at altitude..Team Sky were on Tenerife for 3 weeks...

I wonder who will peak in time for the Tour...

From watching, reading interviews ...Nibali seems like a savy, cool customer...

Still:

-Froome will win
-Nibali will win if Frroome fcuks up/crashes & Contador is tired..

As a fan of Berti, i hope he wins!

Russman

Would love Bertie to do the double, he's great to watch but really can't see anyone troubling a well prepared Froome, unfortunately.
Nibali might well end up finishing on the podium but without ever having a real chance to win.
Of course, crashes might change the whole thing.

MPFG

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

The team that Bertie will have will be tops. The challenge that he faced at the giro was not near what the tour will be and he practically did it all by himself. Expect TS to be all over everything in the tour. I see no reason why he can't or won't be in it to win it.

Well that is going to be some turn around

Basso, Rogers & Kreuz all looked knackered at the Giro ....but they will be tops at the Tour ??? Kiserloski will be tops ?? Or maybe Majka ? He has looked lack luster so far this year..We will have to wait & see but TCS being tops ? I can't see that my self

However Fuglsang is lighter than he has ever been and is flying according to reports
Taarame is reported to have ridden 480 watts on climbs for 12 minutes and put the rest of his team to the sword

If I were a betting person and had to bet on which team will be tops ....well my money would be on Astana

petethedrummer

I'm 100% percent certain Quintana will win. Anyone who thinks otherwise clearly has no idea of cycling.

(I'm going big here so I can smugly quote this statement after the fact. If he doesn't win I'll just never revisit this thread and forget it exists)

MPFG

petethedrummer wrote: »

I'm 100% percent certain Quintana will win. Anyone who thinks otherwise clearly has no idea of cycling.

(I'm going big here so I can smugly quote this statement after the fact. If he doesn't win I'll just never revisit this thread and forget it exists)

Well I am sorry to burst your bubble of supreme confidence in Quintana...maybe he will win but maybe he won't

However according ot rumours (via Velocast) his team are not 100% behind him and are backing Valverde or at least have encouraged Valverde's leadership ambitions at the Tour

petethedrummer

MPFG wrote: »

Well I am sorry to burst your bubble of supreme confidence in Quintana...maybe he will win but maybe he won't

However according ot rumours (via Velocast) his team are not 100% behind him and are backing Valverde or at least have encouraged Valverde's leadership ambitions at the Tour

They know nothing about cycling either.

(Doubing down!!!)

MPFG

petethedrummer wrote: »

They know nothing about cycling either.

(Doubing down!!!)

Well that I agree with

No it is curious that Quintana is not at Dauphine or Suisse and this year he has not looked as indomitable as in 2013/14

Brian?

Nairo Quintana

MPFG wrote: »

Well I am sorry to burst your bubble of supreme confidence in Quintana...maybe he will win but maybe he won't

However according ot rumours (via Velocast) his team are not 100% behind him and are backing Valverde or at least have encouraged Valverde's leadership ambitions at the Tour

I seriously hope not. Valverde hasn't a hope.

TheBlaaMan

Far from resting up until the TDF, both Contador and Quintana are riding the Tour de Sud next week.

Sagan and Majka are doing the Tour de Suisse before the TDF, but few other main attractions seem to be taking part.

Lusk_Doyle

TheBlaaMan wrote: »

Far from resting up until the TDF, both Contador and Quintana are riding the Tour de Sud next week.

Sagan and Majka are doing the Tour de Suisse before the TDF, but few other main attractions seem to be taking part.

Presumably the tour de Switzerland will be Rui Costa's baby again for the millionth time in a row!

MPFG

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

Presumably the tour de Switzerland will be Rui Costa's baby again for the millionth time in a row!

Costa is at the Dauphine ...I suppose winning a race 3 times gets boring

Tour of Suisse field is pretty weak with best = Pinot, Henao, G Thomas , Pozzovivo , Majka , JVdB, Frank Spilak & Fuglsang

Not a bad race to get a result .....I presume Nico Roche is glued to Froomes side ..as could have got a result at Suisse

Arequipa

Alberto Contador

Some good points..

The strength. & commitment of teams to their GC Contender/Leader, will be a big factor,,..

Astana looked dodgy in the Giro; Landa & Aru seemed to compete for top status...

Contador invariably is left alone on the big mountains as noone in Tinkoff Saxo can keep with him...

Quintana is vying with Valverde as top dog..

On that basis Froome on paper has the strongest/most loyal team, on paper anyway!

D9Male

I think Astana will have the strongest team. With Movistar and Sky next best. Agree that TCS are a bit further back. But who knows in cycling? If Sagan can win in California, them maybe they have found their secret ingredient.

Strongest leader? Who knows. I can't wait to find out.

JohnBee

petethedrummer wrote: »

I'm 100% percent certain Quintana will win. Anyone who thinks otherwise clearly has no idea of cycling.

(I'm going big here so I can smugly quote this statement after the fact. If he doesn't win I'll just never revisit this thread and forget it exists)

I've just snapped this and entered in my calendar for day 21 )

titan18

pelevin wrote: »

I meant to add that - by the sounds of it Tinkoff team will be all about Contador with Sagan's Points jersey a very minor consideration if at all. Words are cheap though & with circumstances that could easily change.
Katusha even with J Rodriguez should be very focused on Kristoff.

Sagan will get Bennatti helping him and I'd imagine no one else, and that will probably be enough. Rogers can help too if needed, and probably one other road dom. I'd imagine the rest will be mountain guys for Contador e.g Basso, Kiserlovski, Majka

Nowhere near as strong as Movistar, Astana or Sky's team, but then I'd say Contador isn't as reliant on a strong team as Froome or Nibali will be.

D9Male

Let's just hope it doesn't go the same way as last season. We were all set for a Contador v Froome showdown, and then crashes intervened.

This year sees four big guns all seemingly going into the race with a great chance.

A few points come to mind.

- There are not as many cobbles, nor is the weather likely to be as good. I think best case scenario is that Nibali gains 1'30" over his rivals, with less than a minute more likely.
- The team time trial is quite hilly, and the opening stage is the only short time trial. As such, Quintana is at quite an advantage compared to a typical GT route. In fact, I think the Movistar team has a good mix of climbers and time trialists to make sure that their two leaders lose less than a minute to the big 3 over these two days against the clock.
- There is a clatter of short hilly finishes. Huy, Mende and Mur obviously. But also Le Havre (850m at 7%), Rodez (570m at 9.6%). These will suit Valverde, especially with time bonuses on offer. I could also see him do well in big groups on Cautarets and Pra Loup. I don't think it is a given that he will ride selflessly for Quintana.
- Given the course, other punchy climbers will fancy their chances. I don't think Dan Martin is in good enough form, but if there is a year for him, this is it.

MPFG

Yes ....I was thinking that maybe the yellow jersey at the first rest day will be worn by a rider who is not the top 4

Kwait, Valverde, Purito, Dan Martin, Allaphillipe or Gilbert


Also I cannot see a big group come in at the end of Pra Loup because of the climb and narrow descent before

According to Velocast gossip Quintana is not liked in the Movistar team ??? He always seems such a pleasant unemotional little guy ???

D9Male

Agreed on the climb to Pra Loup. I meant a favourites group, so 10-12 top guys for that stage and Cautarets. I could see Valverde win a stage if it finishes with a group of that size.

I heard that about Quintana too. Anecdote alert. I was in the same hotel as Movistar and Lampre in Belfast for the Giro. All of the team left together around the same, with lots of banter. Quintana was on his own, and kept the bus waiting 5 minutes. Based on this, I am fully confident that there will be a mutiny in Movistar, with riders switching to Valverde.

One thing is for sure though; nobody is getting Gadret's wheel.

MPFG

D9Male wrote: »

One thing is for sure though; nobody is getting Gadret's wheel.

ha ha ..oh the baldy b*****ks !!! ....You never really see him nowadays ..do you

I know last year Quintana was not happy not let ride the Tour ...so that may have caused problems...and I suppose lots of Movistar riders have ridden with Valverde for a long time so maybe side with him