UK Election 2015

4068ac1elhodqr

Another interesting stat for the North is 184k v 176k votes,
equating to 8 seats v's 4 seats as shown in the info-graphic above.

Iwasfrozen

Palmach wrote: »

The trend is towards nationalist parties. This is a blip if you look over the last 20 years.

So are the SNP gains.

Aidric

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I would counter that it's more likely that the poll methodologies were wrong for days / weeks before the election and this is ultimately a vote of approval for an economy heading in the right direction.

Elections are won on the economy and voters stick to what they know. Labour, with arguably weak leadership, failed to sell their vision and probably resulted in a lot of last minute swings. That might explain why the polls got it so wrong. Labour couldn't even get their finance spokesperson elected which is a pretty damning indictment.

BoatMad

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

So are the SNP gains.

one hell of a blip. I means they have in excess of 50% of the popular vote, and all we are seeing is the FPTP system at work

but with that many MPs, the only way is down of course, but its no blip. Scotland will at the very least go Federal or Independent in my lifetime

Palmach

Ernesto Thankful Hill wrote: »

Another interesting stat for the North is 184k v 176k votes,
equating to 8 seats v's 4 seats as shown in the info-graphic above.

That is quite an indictment of the FPTP system.

FreudianSlippers

Cameron already saying that he plans to stick with the EU referendum, pledge more and more devolved power to Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

LuckyLloyd

BoatMad wrote: »

I used the term " I contend " , note the "I" and the word " contend"

Not originally in the posts that started our conversation on the topic sir.

If I overlooked it in them then I do apologise.

BoatMad

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Cameron already saying that he plans to stick with the EU referendum, pledge more and more devolved power to Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

The key is what will the negotiations with the EU put on the table, and will Cameron campaign for a subsequent Yes as a result. we shall see.

Be interesting to see if Devo Max ( already rejected by many in the SNP) will now be regarded as sufficient , or will be extend this to fiscal autonomy or even Fderalism. ?

FreudianSlippers

BoatMad wrote: »

The key is what will the negotiations with the EU put on the table, and will Cameron campaign for a subsequent Yes as a result. we shall see.

Be interesting to see if Devo Max ( already rejected by many in the SNP) will now be regarded as sufficient , or will be extend this to fiscal autonomy or even Fderalism. ?

Federalism would be the only thing (IMO) that would win over the Scots to a Brexit. It's also something I think we should seriously consider if there is a Brexit - once we could secure a position where we don't have to swear allegiance to the royals or anything.

4068ac1elhodqr

wrong location post, moved it here instead: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057420153

BoatMad

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Federalism would be the only thing (IMO) that would win over the Scots to a Brexit. It's also something I think we should seriously consider if there is a Brexit - once we could secure a position where we don't have to swear allegiance to the royals or anything.

I suspect many , a majority perhaps have no issue with allegiance to the Queen. I see no need for a republican scotland, hence Federalism may be a good compromise, etc

jank

alaimacerc wrote: »

That's not a "reaction to nationalism": that is nationalism, pretty blatantly.

That may or may not be the particular reason. I can think of any number of reasons for people wanting to vote Tory... and even more reasons to be ashamed of them. Is "I want my one-million-quid tax-free inheritance, dammit!" regarded as shameful these days? Not to mention the various other manifestations of xenophobia...

I think you have demonstrated in one sentence why Labour lost this election and why they still don't know WHY they lost this election.

FreudianSlippers

alaimacerc wrote: »

That's not a "reaction to nationalism": that is nationalism, pretty blatantly.

That may or may not be the particular reason. I can think of any number of reasons for people wanting to vote Tory... and even more reasons to be ashamed of them. Is "I want my one-million-quid tax-free inheritance, dammit!" regarded as shameful these days? Not to mention the various other manifestations of xenophobia...

In fairness, it's not tax-free. The testator has presumably paid tax on it already.

I'm not saying no inheritance tax, but there should be a fair threshold and fair rates. It's a government windfall and double-taxation otherwise. It's also a populist stance from the left, given they aren't likely to inherit more than the threshold.

jank

GSF wrote: »

If you live in any large town in southern or central England you will be in a Tory seat. Places like Reading aren't exactly rural and has a population approaching 150k

I think it shows the job Labour has in order to ever win a majority again. Apart from London, the Welsh valleys and areas of post northern Industrial England, they have nothing else going for them.

Iwasfrozen

BoatMad wrote: »

one hell of a blip. I means they have in excess of 50% of the popular vote, and all we are seeing is the FPTP system at work

but with that many MPs, the only way is down of course, but its no blip. Scotland will at the very least go Federal or Independent in my lifetime

I doubt it. A vote for a national party does not equal support for independence. The independence issue has been settled and there is no chance of a Tory majority government sanctioning another referendum.

BoatMad

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I doubt it. A vote for a national party does not equal support for independence. The independence issue has been settled and there is no chance of a Tory majority government sanctioning another referendum.

Maybe , maybe not, it depends on circumstance. its clear that the Yes vote has swung behind the SNP and has severally punished Labour for its support of the Union

How the SNP handle the expectations of the nationalist supporter will be interesting and I think it will be a tricky process.

But to suggest that the " Independence Issue" has been settled is naive in the extreme

FreudianSlippers

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I doubt it. A vote for a national party does not equal support for independence. The independence issue has been settled and there is no chance of a Tory majority government sanctioning another referendum.

In fairness, the SNP were the main supporters of the independence referendum, so one would presume that there is either (i) a shift of views in relation to independence since last year or (ii) the people believe in the local policies, but believe they have given a clear enough message re independence to the SNP.

(not that it was that clear)

A Dub in Glasgo

Just looking back at the last UK election thread 5 years ago and I said this




and then during the referendum thread 7 months ago



:pac:

Aidric

BoatMad wrote: »

Maybe , maybe not, it depends on circumstance. its clear that the Yes vote has swung behind the SNP and has severally punished Labour for its support of the Union

How the SNP handle the expectations of the nationalist supporter will be interesting and I think it will be a tricky process.

But to suggest that the " Independence Issue" has been settled is naive in the extreme

I'm finding it hard to tie out the result of the independence referendum and the huge surge in support for the SNP at this election or am I being naive?

Iwasfrozen

BoatMad wrote: »

Maybe , maybe not, it depends on circumstance. its clear that the Yes vote has swung behind the SNP and has severally punished Labour for its support of the Union

How the SNP handle the expectations of the nationalist supporter will be interesting and I think it will be a tricky process.

But to suggest that the " Independence Issue" has been settled is naive in the extreme

I don't think Labour have been punished for their support of the Union, Labour have lost seats all over the UK. I think Labour suffered more from a weak leader in Ed Milliband and inadequate policies.

Well true, I agree it hasn't been settled forever but the SNP are going to fight a major battle to get a Tory majority government to ever grant an independence referendum, I don't see it happening.

SNP may be victims of their own success, if they maintain their seats in Scotland they will most likely always be working with a Conservative government.

Chips Lovell

More devolution, yes, but I think a vote for Independence remains unlikely. I suspect what's happening here is that the Scots are discovering Brinkmanship Nationalism, i.e. voting for a nationalist party who'll use the threat of secession to wrangle a better deal from central government. When push comes to shove, they'll never actually push the button, just do enough to keep the issue alive.

loyatemu

John Major started with a majority 21 in 1992 and the Tories were a minority govt by 1997 due to deaths and defections. However that was against a backdrop of Labour reinvigorating themselves under Smith and Blair. This time Labour are in disarray and it will take years for them to start clawing back support...

ancapailldorcha

Disappointing day. First, the Tories win and then Nick and Ed step down. Really hope Labour don't do a U-turn and return to Blair/Brownism as a result of this.

BoatMad

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I don't think Labour have been punished for their support of the Union, Labour have lost seats all over the UK. I think Labour suffered more from a weak leader in Ed Milliband and inadequate policies.

Well true, I agree it hasn't been settled forever but the SNP are going to fight a major battle to get a Tory majority government to ever grant an independence referendum, I don't see it happening.

SNP may be victims of their own success, if they maintain their seats in Scotland they will most likely always be working with a Conservative government.

I think a Brexit might be a catalyst

BoatMad

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Disappointing day. First, the Tories win and then Nick and Ed step down. Really hope Labour don't do a U-turn and return to Blair/Brownism as a result of this.

Its clear that labour can not win an election from the far left, the centre ground is where its at. It will have to reconnect to middle English to get elected or hope for coalitions

ancapailldorcha

BoatMad wrote: »

Its clear that labour can not win an election from the far left, the centre ground is where its at. It will have to reconnect to middle English to get elected or hope for coalitions

I might have to accept that at some point. Alistair Darling mentioned in the Guardian that Labour waited to long to choose a leader which allowed the Tories to frame the debates. Ed spent most of his time on the defensive. A lot of people seem to be extremely suspicious of him entering a coalition with the SNP and may have voted Conservative as a result.

BoatMad

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

More devolution, yes, but I think a vote for Independence remains unlikely. I suspect what's happening here is that the Scots are discovering Brinkmanship Nationalism, i.e. voting for a nationalist party who'll use the threat of secession to wrangle a better deal from central government. When push comes to shove, they'll never actually push the button, just do enough to keep the issue alive.

Maybe, the fact that 45% want Independence is still huge factor and the elephant in the room. Its not a big step to turn that into a majority ,

A Dub in Glasgo

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I don't think Labour have been punished for their support of the Union, Labour have lost seats all over the UK. I think Labour suffered more from a weak leader in Ed Milliband and inadequate policies.

Actually, this is a case of Labour getting punished for being the lapdogss of the Tories in Scotland during the referendum last year and not being strong enough to challenge the cuts narrative from same Tories

If you look at the actual seats, Labour did not lose seats in England and Wales. They failed to sufficiently advance and win seats off the Lib Dems and the Tories to counteract their annihilation in Scotland

Iwasfrozen

BoatMad wrote: »

I think a Brexit might be a catalyst

Perhaps, but again even if the British vote to leave the EU (and I doubt they will) I just don't see a Tory majority government sanctioning a referendum.

Remember the Torys are traditionally the strongest pro-union party in parliament.

Iwasfrozen

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Actually, this is a case of Labour getting punished for being the lapdogss of the Tories in Scotland during the referendum last year and not being strong enough to challenge the cuts narrative from same Tories

If you look at the actual seats, Labour did not lose seats in England and Wales. They failed to sufficiently advance and win seats off the Lib Dems and the Tories to counteract their annihilation in Scotland

They lost a fair few seats in England too.

The SNP may be victims of their own success though, if they manage to hold onto their new seats in future it's very unlikely Labour will ever form a government again.

Which means SNP will have to deal with Tory governments and good luck getting that lot to sanction a referendum.