UK Election 2015

Valmont

Strange that UKIP performed so strongly but won so few seats. I'm sure they will be a force next time around with better organisation. I think the Conservatives promising a referendum on the EU hurt them a lot.

Harry Palmr

I see Galloway lost his seat and is now subject of a police investigation. Couldn't happen to a nicer fella.

Happyman42

Result makes some mockery of opinion poll companies all the same. Have any of them spoken/spun it yet?

BoatMad

super_furry wrote: »

Not if they hold that promised EU exit referendum, which would have a decent chance of passing.

current polls suggest support for staying in its at record highs

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/24/eu-referendum-record-lead/

Peter Anthony

British Politics is so much more interesting than politics here. At least there is different options over there.

BoJack Horseman

BoatMad wrote: »

current polls suggest support for staying in its at record highs

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/24/eu-referendum-record-lead/

2017 is a long way away, but once the EU throw Cameron a few bones to show the UK electorate (directive exceptions usually), I imagine the UK will stay in the EU comfortably enough.

the groutch

yougov predicted 30 seats for Lib Dems, so must be taken with a pinch or salt.

BoatMad

the groutch wrote: »

yougov predicted 30 seats for Lib Dems, so must be taken with a pinch or salt.

The issue with the polls, was that they got the share of the vote about right within the margin of error, but those academics that then convert that into seats got that wrong.

This doesn't apply in a referendum , as its a simple vote, so this error is unlikely to be mirrored in polls.

I think the referendum will be like the scottish vote , powerful fears will be raised that life outside the EU will be worse. Its always hard to change the status quo to an unknown

I dont see the Uk leaving Europe, lock stock and barrel.

bnt

The Ego has Landed: Nicola Sturgeon has arrived in London for some kind of discussion. The SNP has grown from 6 to 56 seats, taking 40 from Labour and 10 from the Conservatives. Given the wafer-thin majority that the Conservatives will have, they may need the SNP bloc vote to get some unpopular measures through Parliament.

On other sites I'm seeing the word "xenophobic" thrown around a lot. Typical black/white thinking. It's clear from the size of the UKIP vote that many in England have some real concerns with the scale and speed of immigration, but that doesn't make them "xenophobic". Immigration is a good thing in moderation.

BoatMad

Happyman42 wrote: »

Result makes some mockery of opinion poll companies all the same. Have any of them spoken/spun it yet?

yes some have commented that the issue was that they got got the share of the votes right ( within error margins ) as this is all a poll measures, what the subsequent academics got wrong was the resulting share of seats , i.e., the called the marginals wrongly

Add to the fact that the liberals did worse then expected, polls were on the numbers regarding Scotland ( which in itself I suspect affected English voters )

BoatMad

The Ego has Landed: Nicola Sturgeon has arrived in London for some kind of discussion. The SNP has grown from 6 to 56 seats, taking 40 from Labour and 10 from the Conservatives. Given the wafer-thin majority that the Conservatives will have, they may need the SNP bloc vote to get some unpopular measures through Parliament.

No I see no possibility that the Conservatives will need or reply on SNP support. The SNP unexpectedly for its voters will be consigned to the wilderness of the back benches, no doubt babbling on about the Barnett Formula
If it were to transpire he needs a help , I suspect the DUP are far easier to deal with

alaimacerc

BoatMad wrote: »

The issue with the polls, was that they got the share of the vote about right within the margin of error, but those academics that then convert that into seats got that wrong.

That's not a reasonable interpretation. 3% out both ways (Con low, Lab high) in every poll is not within the statistical sampling error when repeated so many times. Very clearly, either a) people changed their minds after the OPs ceased, or b) they told the OPs porkies.

This doesn't apply in a referendum , as its a simple vote, so this error is unlikely to be mirrored in polls.

On the contrary, it's exactly like it, and likely to be wrong in the same ways, for the same reasons.

BoatMad

alaimacerc wrote: »

That's not a reasonable interpretation. 3% out both ways (Con low, Lab high) in every poll is not within the statistical sampling error when repeated so many times. Very clearly, either a) people changed their minds after the OPs ceased, or b) they told the OPs porkies.


On the contrary, it's exactly like it, and likely to be wrong in the same ways, for the same reasons.

oh I agree, I think the polls showing a sweep of SNP , and the very anti tory rhetoric made voters give two fingers to scotland and vote tory at the last minute. I suspect these are not natural tory voters, and would to giver pollsters such a xenophobic reason

Im not saying the polls were right , but not as wrong as some point out, since polls only estimate vote share not seats

bnt

BoatMad wrote: »

No I see no possibility that the Conservatives will need or reply on SNP support. The SNP unexpectedly for its voters will be consigned to the wilderness of the back benches, no doubt babbling on about the Barnett Formula
If it were to transpire he needs a help , I suspect the DUP are far easier to deal with

Well, I don't think it's that black/white, and it will depend on the bill before Parliament. There is no coalition, the Conservatives have a majority government, but they are susceptible to rebels flouting the whip on specific bills. That's all I meant, and I still think that.

BoatMad

alaimacerc wrote: »

.


On the contrary, it's exactly like it, and likely to be wrong in the same ways, for the same reasons.

No you cannot take one incident of poll error and erase 20 years of polling process. referendum are easier to call as you simply have to estimate vote share. with FPTP, you have the difficultly in converting vote share into seats won, this causes the error.

There was a good interview on the beeb from a pollster explaining all this

alaimacerc

BoatMad wrote: »

referendum are easier to call as you simply have to estimate vote share.

And are still susceptible to "errors" of the sort I just described.

Your theory about the problem with the GE polls being translation to the marginal battles just doesn't stand up to any examination.

BoatMad

bnt wrote: »

Well, I don't think it's that black/white, and it will depend on the bill before Parliament. There is no coalition, the Conservatives have a majority government, but they are susceptible to rebels flouting the whip on specific bills. That's all I meant, and I still think that.

I think the conservatives have learned from the Major years how destructive it is to carry on in that way. I suspect , while the whips will be busy bees, there will be no open dissension on major policies, The only exception being Europe , the skeptics want out , Camerons instincts are to stay in.

Francie Barrett

The voting in Northern Ireland has been very interesting and widely unreported. Outright Unionist parties have secured a percentage vote of 48% by my calculations (DUP, UUP, TUV, Con, UKIP) whereas Nationalists have only got 38%. Overall, the Nationalist vote is down 3.6%. I am sure some of that is tactical (voting for UUP to get DUP out), but to me, it does looks like there is a softening of Nationalist sentiment (seems like Alliance have gained slightly).

It looks like Sinn Féin's dream of a United Ireland has not only stalled, it's fading.

LuckyLloyd

Baldy Conscience wrote: »

he's right, the larger vote for Tories, in England, is a slap in the face to SNP imo.

BoatMad wrote: »

I contend that a part of the " unexpected resurgence" of Tory votes against the polls predictions, was a reaction to the expected surge of SNP votes and the fear that a Lab/SNP agreement would not only damage the Union, but undermine England

Hence since they couldn't punish the SNP, they could punish Labour and support the Tories to send a message to Scottish Nationalism.

Not seeing that at all tbh. I think it's dreaming a narrative you'd like to be true from the data. You can 'contend' it to be the case, no problem there as it's a theory of why people voted as they did. But talking about it as if it's a fact is completely incorrect imo.

I would counter that it's more likely that the poll methodologies were wrong for days / weeks before the election and this is ultimately a vote of approval for an economy heading in the right direction.

BoatMad

alaimacerc wrote: »

And are still susceptible to "errors" of the sort I just described.

Your theory about the problem with the GE polls being translation to the marginal battles just doesn't stand up to any examination.

whatever you say, I think in general polls have been close and far apart ( Uk 1992 ). you cant just extrapolate on result to all results


My own view is that the difference this time was the reaction of English voters to the possibility of a lab/SNP pact. This brought out the reaction to nationalism , but this was something people wouldn't admit to pollsters , but this is just my opiinion

BoatMad

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Not seeing that at all tbh. I think it's dreaming a narrative you'd like to be true from the data. You can 'contend' it to be the case, no problem there as it's a theory of why people voted as they did. But talking about it as if it's a fact is completely incorrect imo.

I would counter that it's more likely that the poll methodologies were wrong for days / weeks before the election and this is ultimately a vote of approval for an economy heading in the right direction.

I used the term " I contend " , note the "I" and the word " contend"

BoatMad

Not seeing that at all tbh. I think it's dreaming a narrative you'd like to be true from the data. You can 'contend' it to be the case, no problem there as it's a theory of why people voted as they did. But talking about it as if it's a fact is completely incorrect imo.

The SNP engaged in strident anti Tory politiking , and the conservatives responded in England, by " warning" about a possible Lab/SNP tie-up. I would contend that the fear mongering worked and was ONE of the factors in an unexpected Tory swing

The other was the inability of UKIP to make inroads into Tory seats and the third was just the inability of Labour to succeed in middle england, without having any scottish seats ( This is going to be huge for them )

The other factor was clearly the polls underestimated the seat loss of the Lib dems, even though they forecast the fall in share reasonably OK.

Lovely Bloke

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

But talking about it as if it's a fact is completely incorrect imo.

What? Did you miss the "imo" in my post that you quoted, or what?

alaimacerc

BoatMad wrote: »

My own view is that the difference this time was the reaction of English voters to the possibility of a lab/SNP pact. This brought out the reaction to nationalism , but this was something people wouldn't admit to pollsters , but this is just my opiinion

That's not a "reaction to nationalism": that is nationalism, pretty blatantly.

That may or may not be the particular reason. I can think of any number of reasons for people wanting to vote Tory... and even more reasons to be ashamed of them. Is "I want my one-million-quid tax-free inheritance, dammit!" regarded as shameful these days? Not to mention the various other manifestations of xenophobia...

Quin_Dub

BoatMad wrote: »

The SNP engaged in strident anti Tory politiking , and the conservatives responded in England, by " warning" about a possible Lab/SNP tie-up. I would contend that the fear mongering worked and was ONE of the factors in an unexpected Tory swing

The other was the inability of UKIP to make inroads into Tory seats and the third was just the inability of Labour to succeed in middle england, without having any scottish seats ( This is going to be huge for them )

The other factor was clearly the polls underestimated the seat loss of the Lib dems, even though they forecast the fall in share reasonably OK.

This map of the UK is very interesting

Essentially it shows that Labour won virtually all the "urban" seats and the Tories won all the "rural" seats in England..

Labour won most of the seats in Wales, but the wipe out in Scotland is where most of the damage was done..

The Urban/Rural divide is particularly stark in London as other than a narrow strip from Westminster through Chelsea,Fulham & Kensington , the Tories got nothing..

4068ac1elhodqr

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The voting in Northern Ireland has been very interesting and widely unreported. Outright Unionist parties have secured a percentage vote of 48% by my calculations (DUP, UUP, TUV, Con, UKIP) whereas Nationalists have only got 38%. Overall, the Nationalist vote is down 3.6%. I am sure some of that is tactical (voting for UUP to get DUP out), but to me, it does looks like there is a softening of Nationalist sentiment (seems like Alliance have gained slightly). It looks like Sinn Féin's dream of a United Ireland has not only stalled, it's fading.

There was also growth in the Alliance & the newcomers (UKIP), along with the UUP-DUP strategic voting alliance*. Lack of representation in Westminster is also an issue for potential SF voters whom may have opted for SDLP. Turnout only 58%, once e-votes come in this could be closer to 90% and a more accurate picture overall.

*One interesting result showing this is Fermanagh & South Tyrone (surrounded by the Republic) which went to UUP from SF by a tiny margin.

BoatMad

Quin_Dub wrote: »

This map of the UK is very interesting

Essentially it shows that Labour won virtually all the "urban" seats and the Tories won all the "rural" seats in England..

Labour won most of the seats in Wales, but the wipe out in Scotland is where most of the damage was done..

The Urban/Rural divide is particularly stark in London as other than a narrow strip from Westminster through Chelsea,Fulham & Kensington , the Tories got nothing..

analysis in FPTP by seat is very misleading as small gains in votes can translate into big seat gains as the SNP have found .

equally that map you showed is skewed physically

heres a more correct aspect one



shows the major job labour has to do

GSF

BoatMad wrote: »

analysis in FPTP by seat is very misleading as small gains in votes can translate into big seat gains as the SNP have found .

equally that map you showed is skewed physically

heres a more correct aspect one

If you live in any large town in southern or central England you will be in a Tory seat. Places like Reading aren't exactly rural and has a population approaching 150k

BoatMad

Originally Posted by Francie Barrett View Post
The voting in Northern Ireland has been very interesting and widely unreported. Outright Unionist parties have secured a percentage vote of 48% by my calculations (DUP, UUP, TUV, Con, UKIP) whereas Nationalists have only got 38%. Overall, the Nationalist vote is down 3.6%. I am sure some of that is tactical (voting for UUP to get DUP out), but to me, it does looks like there is a softening of Nationalist sentiment (seems like Alliance have gained slightly). It looks like Sinn Féin's dream of a United Ireland has not only stalled, it's fading.

Fermanagh was always going to be difficult and Gildernew had a tough job as Elliot is a good candidate . given the votes in it. It could swing either way, so in that regard, SF havent really lost ground , only a seat, Assembly electrons are a better metric for judging nationalist support imho

Palmach

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The voting in Northern Ireland has been very interesting and widely unreported. Outright Unionist parties have secured a percentage vote of 48% by my calculations (DUP, UUP, TUV, Con, UKIP) whereas Nationalists have only got 38%. Overall, the Nationalist vote is down 3.6%. I am sure some of that is tactical (voting for UUP to get DUP out), but to me, it does looks like there is a softening of Nationalist sentiment (seems like Alliance have gained slightly).

It looks like Sinn Féin's dream of a United Ireland has not only stalled, it's fading.

The trend is towards nationalist parties. This is a blip if you look over the last 20 years.