Cold snap Jan 10th onwards: Wintry Showers, Snow Accumulations for some

Kermit.de.frog

FWVT the floor is open to you if you want to have a go. I'm perfectly happy with the thread, happy some saw snow and really I don't think most care that they didn't. That is the nature of these setups in Ireland.

I think you take things too seriously, are trying to wind me up and/or need to just get over it.

So yes we'll move on.

FWVT

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FWVT the floor is open to you if you want to have a go. I'm perfectly happy with the thread, happy some saw snow and really I don't think most care that they didn't. That is the nature of these setups in Ireland.

I think you take things too seriously, are trying to wind me up and/or need to just get over it.

So yes we'll move on.

I'm just against all things Madden-esque.

Oscar Bravo

I don't often take sides but FWVT your spot on, Kermit.de.frog over hyped the thread from the beginning. the forecasts around here should be left to people like Maq, weathercheck and MT who will set up a thread if its necessary. people saw a few flakes of snow today, very few photos etc etc. met eireann were spot on.

Kermit.de.frog

FWVT wrote: »

I'm just against all things Madden-esque.

This thread was started early on the 8th. At that stage all the models were in firm agreement with the prognosis set out in the OP. I would not have started it otherwise. I don't get the core of your argument - there was nothing extreme or out of the ordinary or not in keeping with the data available right up to the 00z runs last night.

Indeed this morning TAF's could have been lifted from the OP.

And FWIW I have on many occasions criticised not only the person you reference and his "agency" or whatever you want to call it but the media in general (not just the UK media) on ridiculous outlandish and scaremongering articles.

We agree there that's for sure.

Lumi

Closing this thread temporarily until I sort out this mess of low-level trolling, back seat moderation & personal attacks!

Lumi

Mod Note

FWVT, some of your posts on this thread were reported by other members and they can best be described as low-level trolling. Despite a number of reports of snow falling at various low-level locations you posted

FWVT wrote: »

So there are no photos of all these places that got low-level snow today? I only saw one from Donegal.

FWVT wrote: »

Hmmm...I suppose all their iPhone chargers were broken too. :cool:

FWVT wrote: »

No photos here of snow at low levels, as would normally happen. Nothing.

Sleet doesn't deserve a thread, I'm afraid.

Hands up those who are happy about today's snow?

And this post highlighting Kermit.de.frog's posts was in my opinion designed to aggravate/goad him http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=93784647&postcount=240 - a breach of the charter

5. No trolling/goading posts which serve only to aggravate other users.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think you need to grow up a little bit to be perfectly honest.

While you may have felt provoked, you have been around here long enough to know that you report the problem to the mods and let them deal with it. You do not take matters into your own hands because it just derails the thread

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

I don't often take sides but FWVT your spot on, Kermit.de.frog over hyped the thread from the beginning. the forecasts around here should be left to people like Maq, weathercheck and MT who will set up a thread if its necessary.

You do not get to single out a member and suggest that they should not be allowed to post a forecast. This is a discussion forum and our charter states that

'Everyone is entitled to post and has equal rights whether they are weather experts or complete newbies.'


Let me be crystal clear - If there is any repeat of this bickering and/or goading I will ban the offender from posting in this thread
Warnings/infractions have been issued as appropriate now let's move on please and get back to enjoying the weather and participating in this thread

Do not respond to this warning on-thread, PM me if you have any issues
Thanks

Kermit.de.frog

00z GFS dispenses with Tuesday's potential event. Development further south affecting southern UK for a time but snow showers roll in here instead mostly in the west.


More newsworthy is the potential storm brewing for later Wednesday night.

But anyway ECM looking good for Tuesday and Tuesday night

Aircraft Freak

I had snow here in the east for about 30 minutes last night, I am on higher ground though, ~750asl.

Aircraft Freak

Aircraft Freak wrote: »

I had snow here in the east for about 30 minutes last night, I am on higher ground though, ~750asl.

Did it stick?

Aircraft Freak

Dónal wrote: »

Did it stick?

Nope, but it was quite heavy for about ten minutes, It started raining after that.

Nabber

These westward incursions are just too hard to call. The sea modification is huge, the sea track is huge. You need srong winds to drag the air across the Atlantic as fast as possible, but then you need the winds to slacken when they reach Ireland. Coastal areas in my opinion wont see snow. Any on shore breeze will drag temps up.
given that most of our population is on the sea, it leads to alot of Negative back graden feedback.

I agree that looking at the charts we should have had snow. But given how many variables we need an how close the temps are to snow or rain, id say these events are FI at +6hrs.

But I do enjoy them, i appreciate the effort put in on this thread.

Lumi keep up the good work, but dont be thinking Karma is goimg to give you snow for it 😆

Iancar29

Still all to play for a decent snow risk Tuesday.
Though the main Risk areas IMO are the NW and West ( Kerry mountains too)
Some cherry picking shows that perturbation 6 places the trough feature more favorably for parts of Munster and Leinster to be in with a shot.




I do think though that it will be downgraded to yesterday's setup which was always slightly on the negative side of good criteria ( for a NW feed )

I'll be happy even with just some lying snow on the dublin/wicklow mountains ! :cool:


Should start coming into range on this evening's hi-res models.

AnotherYear

So you think Tuesday will be a repeat of yesterday Iancar or did I misread your post?

Iancar29

On current charts its looking alot better than yesterday with more widespread instability , thundersnow possible near the W / NW coast . Lower DPs and air temps ( both below 0c ) I just think those 850temps will be downgraded slightly before then as its one of the most difficult things for the models to pick up accurately with such a long dynamic track across the Atlantic.

Still exciting stuff though, fingers crossed for when the hi res comes into range later.

Kermit.de.frog

Iancar29 wrote: »

Still all to play for a decent snow risk Tuesday.

Both NAVGEM and GFS putting that just off the south coast. Not game up by any means.

Captain Snow

There was some lying snow around the kilikee road and sallys gap this morning. There was also snow on the summit of Kippure Mountain.........

Kermit.de.frog

Another thing we have to watch is the chance of blizzard like conditions in the north west. The wind aspect for Monday night and Tuesday is becoming more noteworthy closer the time. Another impact of this is the showers will be driven well inland on this and several trough lines in the mix too. Rare enough that upgrades happen close to the time but Monday night, Tuesday and Tuesday night may be memorable for some.

Kermit.de.frog

Here we go again...12z GFS making more of an event for the south and south Leinster on Tuesday.

Some Corkonians will be happy Just 48 hrs out.

Bootros Bootros

Can anybody point to any time an Atlantic system bringing northwesterlies has produced long term low lying snow generally across Ireland?

Peeky Max

Will this be at all like 2010???

Speak Now

Peeky Max wrote: »

Will this be at all like 2010???

Nothing remotely like that on the horizon.

M.T. Cranium

No, it won't be like 2010 especially not for Dublin and area where only small amounts of melting snow are likely if anything, where it might amount to something is over higher parts of the north and west including southwest at times, and by higher parts I don't mean just on hills but not right at sea level. I would doubt that any populated areas would see much more than 3-5 cm although higher slopes could see 10-20.

Baggy Trousers

Will the snow hold on altitude (above 500m) all the way to the weekend or do I feel a sickie coming on for Wed/Thurs?
I am thinking Kerry/Galtees/Connemara.

Kermit.de.frog

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Will the snow hold on altitude (above 500m) all the way to the weekend or do I feel a sickie coming on for Wed/Thurs?
I am thinking Kerry/Galtees/Connemara.

No. The associated mild sector with the midweek storm will raise the 0c isotherm thawing any snow even on the highest peaks.

Baggy Trousers

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No. The associated mild sector with the midweek storm will raise the 0c isotherm thawing any snow even on the highest peaks.

Thanks Kermit, disappointing but good to know.

Kermit.de.frog

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Thanks Kermit, disappointing but good to know.

NP, see here. You will see left overs so to speak and on high ground Wednesday's (night rather) event should really be snow temporarily above 400m. But then it turns to rain and everything gets slushy and not nice really.

Kermit.de.frog

In to hi res now for Tuesday - this is how Euro4 12z sees things.

00 Tuesday




6am Tuesday



12pm Tuesday

Iancar29

Yup , Tuesday still looking good for the Connaught and Ulster ( Kerry mountains too) ! Was afraid to look at the output! ha

Thundersnow still a good possibility .


Still hard to say if much will make it as far as the East coast.

Road trip anyone?

patneve2

With temperatures going as low as -40 at 500 hPa (this rarely happens when the cold is coming from the west) there should be a lot of instability and widespread accumulations a km or two away from the immediate coast (up to 10cm in the luckier spots in the NW-if charts stay the same).

Baggy Trousers

Do we need a new thread for this event?

Can someone tell me when the snow showers will start and end approx?