Gales/Strong Winds January 8th - 10th

Oscar Bravo

A gust of 68 knots at Malin Head at 2300..... the strongest gust of the night!

shmaupel

Just had a gust of 92kmph here in South Donegal. Creaky rafter time!

Rikand

No more than 74knots tonight please

Tactical

Rikand wrote: »

No more than 74knots tonight please

Why?

FWVT

METOB-B ASCAT winds measured at 70 knots at 20.20 this evening. They may have been higher as this method of measuring has a low bias at high windspeeds.

eskimocat

Hello, good evening ... we have WEATHER!

ronnie3585

It's calmed right down in Galway City now.

eskimocat

All was calm here most of the evening (Dromahair, Co. Leitrim) but some lovely howls of wind for about 30 mins now... So sad that my personal weather station died earlier this year. Have got to get something sorted on that front again, I really miss it on nights like this.

mickyfitzy2

In buncrana about 15 miles from malino as the crow flies. Pretty tasty gusts here tonite

mickyfitzy2

Malin....... Malino????

eskimocat

Are ye checking this storm out on the Earth Null website... it looks great.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-0.59,55.78,2048

RED L4 0TH

Fairly impressive looking circulation at 10pm.

Landoflemon

Will be keeping a close eye on this thread, supposed to be flying from Dublin to Gatwick tomorrow evening to catch a connection for my holiday to France and now going into plan B mode!

Jpmarn

Quite a number of planes flying from Shannon to Dublin after been diverted there due to adverse wind conditions at Dublinairport earlier tonight.

Depraved

My friend is flying out of Dublin early Tuesday morning. What are the odds that these stormy conditions will still be around by then?

M.T. Cranium

During the night some extreme winds hit northern Scotland, gusts over 170 km/hr even at lower elevation sites, but the more populous south was largely spared with peak gusts around 100 or 110 km/hr. So I would imagine there has been some fairly major damage to infrastructure in a few parts of the north and relatively little further south.

Just looking ahead briefly, the winds will pick up again across Ireland this afternoon and evening. Personally I don't foresee anything at a level 2 intensity, certainly a level 1, but perhaps isolated level 2.

Model depictions for late Wednesday (night of 14-15) are very troubling at this early stage. Would suggest assessing the situation through the 12z model runs before even starting a thread on that, keep this one going with possibly a level one tag and title change to reflect new time scale (tonight into Saturday morning). And the existing thread on wintry precip can handle all concerns about that problem through mid-week.

If the current GFS or more so the GFS parallel were exactly right, Ireland would be in the way of a level three event mid-week. The track is somewhat different on the two depictions but the net result in either case would be wind gusts to 180 or even 200 km/hr. :eek: Seriously, it looks very similar to the 1839 storm on the GFS parallel. Let's hope this is wrong. Other models have not yet posted, or in the case of GME, show the storm out to 132h on a similar evolution but model run ends before the critical time. Next up would be the GEM and UKMO, will have a look see and report back by editing this post as I don't think anybody is reading at this ungodly hour.

Cork Lass

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

During the night some extreme winds hit northern Scotland, gusts over 170 km/hr even at lower elevation sites, but the more populous south was largely spared with peak gusts around 100 or 110 km/hr. So I would imagine there has been some fairly major damage to infrastructure in a few parts of the north and relatively little further south.

Just looking ahead briefly, the winds will pick up again across Ireland this afternoon and evening. Personally I don't foresee anything at a level 2 intensity, certainly a level 1, but perhaps isolated level 2.

Model depictions for late Wednesday (night of 14-15) are very troubling at this early stage. Would suggest assessing the situation through the 12z model runs before even starting a thread on that, keep this one going with possibly a level one tag and title change to reflect new time scale (tonight into Saturday morning). And the existing thread on wintry precip can handle all concerns about that problem through mid-week.

If the current GFS or more so the GFS parallel were exactly right, Ireland would be in the way of a level three event mid-week. The track is somewhat different on the two depictions but the net result in either case would be wind gusts to 180 or even 200 km/hr. :eek: Seriously, it looks very similar to the 1839 storm on the GFS parallel. Let's hope this is wrong. Other models have not yet posted, or in the case of GME, show the storm out to 132h on a similar evolution but model run ends before the critical time. Next up would be the GEM and UKMO, will have a look see and report back by editing this post as I don't think anybody is reading at this ungodly hour.

Thanks MT. I'm following this with interest as I'm due to fly from Cork to London and then on to L.A. early Wednesday morning. What are your predictions?

FWVT

80-knot ASCAT winds off our northwest at 22.01 last night.

SEPT 23 1989

Hurricane force 12 winds mentioned on the 5am BBC shipping forecast

M.T. Cranium

Rather than editing the previous post, just adding new info here.

First of all, the question about flying early Wednesday, at this point not looking too bad for that, the storm in question would be quite late on Wednesday or even Thursday morning. So at this point no specific concerns on that.

Now, the rest of the models all have this same storm fairly well-developed, none of them quite approach the intensity of the GFS but this is a pattern where the GFS has done relatively well in past situations. I imagine we'll be closely following this potential storm for several days before really getting a full handle on what will actually happen.

As for today, that horse has already left the barn, anything approaching force 12 would be over the North Sea by now and possibly much later might return to areas north of Malin Head (force 10 possibly) but I don't foresee anything too violent around Ireland despite a raging jet stream overhead. It will be quite windy at times later today but I am more concerned about the wintry precip as for impacts on the general public next five days. Then there could be a major windstorm as discussed.

maquiladora

Highest lowland gust at a Met Office station in Scotland was 113mph last night. Equal to the highest gust on Met Eireann records (16th September 1961).

MrDerp

Flying LHR -> God knows what airport ORK on Wednesday at 2200. Could be fun :pac:

Lumi

Very blustery in Galway city with wind speeds on a par with last night - currently gusting 66 km/h

maquiladora

Lumi wrote: »

Very blustery in Galway city with wind speeds on a par with last night - currently gusting 66 km/h

Should start picking up there in the next couple of hours. I'm surprised there is no warning from Met Eireann, the models still show stronger winds for most parts this afternoon/evening than almost everything last night. Nothing severe though.

Lumi

maquiladora wrote: »

Should start picking up there in the next couple of hours. I'm surprised there is no warning from Met Eireann, the models still show stronger winds for most parts this afternoon/evening than almost everything last night. Nothing severe though.

Yep, just a typical wet & windy day out west, nothing special apart from the temp which is currently a balmy 11.6C

maquiladora

I spoke too soon. :P

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland

South to southwest winds 50 to 65 km/h., this afternoon and evening, will gust 90 to 110 km/h at times and will continue overnight, when the winds will veer westerly. Winds will be strongest in southwest, west and northwestern coastal counties. There will be high Atlantic seas also.

Issued:
Friday 09 January 2015 10:00
Valid:
Friday 09 January 2015 12:00 to Saturday 10 January 2015 09:00

Storm 10

maquiladora wrote: »

I spoke too soon. :P

Maq I think they are following whats being posted here , we have torrential rain here in Galway which was not in this mornings forecast, place I work in is flooded after the roof could not take the downpour.

Lumi

Steady moderate/heavy rain rather than a downpour but miserable nonetheless Storm 10
Current rainfall stats for Galway city
Rainfall since midnight 8.6mm
Rainfall Rate Max 20.6 mm/hr at 09:58
High Hourly Rainfall 7.4 mm at 10:21

Storm 10

Lumi wrote: »

Steady moderate/heavy rain rather than a downpour but miserable nonetheless Storm 10
Current rainfall stats for Galway city
Rainfall since midnight 8.6mm
Rainfall Rate Max 20.6 mm/hr at 09:58
High Hourly Rainfall 7.4 mm at 10:21

In the Ballybrit area where I am it was very heavy, I suppose it was hit and miss how heavy it was in different areas.

gugsy

Winds picked up rather quickly here in galway.