Property Market 2015

gaius c

SeanSouth wrote: »

@Gaius, I always enjoy your posts. I remember your posts from December 2013 in particular, when you wrote at length about how the sky was falling down and property prices were about to tank. At that time you said this was because of all the repossessions that were about to happen which would flood the market with supply. Many of us at that time predicted 10% rises for the following year which actually did happen..........Here's another prediction for you now. House prices in Dublin will rise by in excess of 15% next year. Lets see if this happens or not.

You lost the argument when you played the player and not the ball.

handlemaster

gaius c wrote: »

You lost the argument when you played the player and not the ball.

thats for others to decide.

Piriz

It has always been entirely logical to expect a flood of repossessions, it has become apparent that Ireland has been avoiding this.

I Am The Law

Piriz wrote: »

It has always been entirely logical to expect a flood of repossessions, it has become apparent that Ireland has been avoiding this.

If Ireland means the government nothing will happen before the election, if it means the banks they seem to be caught between CB rules and waiting for prices to rise.

Cuddlesworth

I Am The Law wrote: »

If Ireland means the government nothing will happen before the election, if it means the banks they seem to be caught between CB rules and waiting for prices to rise.

It does look like the CB rules put a blinder on the plan to let prices rise past the previous bubble and it will sort itself out.

Bob24

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

It does look like the CB rules put a blinder on the plan to let prices rise past the previous bubble and it will sort itself out.

There must be plenty of behind closed door lobbying to amend these rules, time will tell be I wouldn't completely discard the possibility of seeing deposit or income requirements lowered.

I Am The Law

Bob24 wrote: »

There must be plenty of behind closed door lobbying to amend these rules, time will tell be I wouldn't completely discard the possibility of seeing deposit or income requirements lowered.

I think that ship has sailed at this point, the banks will have to suck it up from now on.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/finance-minister-backs-central-bank-mortgage-rules-706224.html

gaius c

Bob24 wrote: »

There must be plenty of behind closed door lobbying to amend these rules, time will tell be I wouldn't completely discard the possibility of seeing deposit or income requirements lowered.

Won't happen. ECB are not letting us near the matches again.

fliball123

I Am The Law wrote: »

Average salary in ROI is now €32,500

Multiply that by 3.5 and add 10% for first time buyer = €125,125.

Could I see the "very cheap" houses please?

Why is a multiply of x3.5 someones salary and add 10% a proper analogy for buying a house these days? That equation has gone out with the Indians. Also remember that most people buying these days are in a couple and both work so at the very least you can multiply that by 2 so 250k there are plenty of gaffs on myhome.ie for 250k 3 bed within 15k of the city center

Villa05

It's 3.5 x combined salaries

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

It's 3.5 x combined salaries

yeah looking at that again I see that but why is that the equation is this the same in other areas across the globe?

flintash

fliball123 wrote:

Why is a multiply of x3.5 someones salary and add 10% a proper analogy for buying a house these days? That equation has gone out with the Indians. Also remember that most people buying these days are in a couple and both work so at the very least you can multiply that by 2 so 250k there are plenty of gaffs on myhome.ie for 250k 3 bed within 15k of the city center

Add kids into formula and your calculation goes out the window.

Santy2015

flintash wrote:

Add kids into formula and your calculation goes out the window.

And any loans you might have

brownbeard

October CSO figures released: up 1.6% month on month, 7.6% year on year.

http://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexoctober2015/

Make of it what you will...

The_Conductor

Added to my incremental table of monthly updates.
You can quite clearly see the peak last Oct/Nov- the increases up to then- and the decreases since........ Excel table attached.

From the Indo:
First-time buyers now have a mortgage of nearly five times the average wage.

Typical mortgage is 172k which they say is five times average wage - they use 35k as the average wage (which is open to dispute!).

What does this mean in terms of the loan-to-income ratio limits of 3.5 x income? It's 3.5 x total gross income so, for a couple with both on the 'average' wage, this would be 7 x the average of 35k.

Does this suggest that, if anything, the LTI limit is not having much effect for most people as they are well within the borrowing limit anyway?

The_Conductor

3.5 times the first salary- and between 1.5 and 2.5 times the second salary.
Most lenders don't give you 3.5 times the joint salary (on the basis that its highly probable that one or the other of the two will be taking unpaid leave for protracted periods of time). I.e. 3.5 times average might support a mortgage application of around 125k- and another 50k would bring you up to the average mortgage level (a bit under 180k).........

Bob24

Deleted User wrote: »

From the Indo:
First-time buyers now have a mortgage of nearly five times the average wage.

Typical mortgage is 172k which they say is five times average wage - they use 35k as the average wage (which is open to dispute!).

What does this mean in terms of the loan-to-income ratio limits of 3.5 x income? It's 3.5 x total gross income so, for a couple with both on the 'average' wage, this would be 7 x the average of 35k.

Does this suggest that, if anything, the LTI limit is not having much effect for most people as they are well within the borrowing limit anyway?

I think it is very difficult to relate the average mortgage value to the average wage, since some income groups are much more likely to take up mortgages than others.

dearg lady

As a single applicant I'm about ready to give up. Don't want to be renting for the next 5+years but may have to..

lawred2

is there anything a little more resolute than just lumping together all figures for Dublin?

You can get detailed data from the property price register (I find the MyHome tool easy to search; Daft is probably equally good). You can even go road-by-road but it gets a bit anecdotal due to very low sample size. And you have to do it yourself.

REA estate agents has been using its network to gauge the price of a 3-bed semi in areas of Dublin. For example, they can say that a 3-bed in Lucan is up or down x% over a certain period. Quite a handy measure but you're relying on just one agent in each area so, again, the sample sizes are pretty small.

lawred2

Cheers..

5% increase in Dublin house prices over the last three months??

That sounds a bit high no?

The_Conductor

lawred2 wrote: »

Cheers..

5% increase in Dublin house prices over the last three months??

That sounds a bit high no?

Its a 4.5% rise in Dublin prices- over the past 12 months.
The 5%+ increase in prices over the past 3 months- is driven predominently by regional price increases (not Dublin)- though there are some small Dublin increases.

lawred2

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its a 4.5% rise in Dublin prices- over the past 12 months.
The 5%+ increase in prices over the past 3 months- is driven predominently by regional price increases (not Dublin)- though there are some small Dublin increases.

I might be interpreting it wrong but the 3 month price change % for Dublin houses is reported as 5.1%... see table 7

As I said; could easily (likely) be misreading/misinterpreting. I see the 4.2% yoy.

It does makes sense though as there were price decreases at the start of the year - making up lost ground etc

The_Conductor

lawred2 wrote: »

I might be interpreting it wrong but the 3 month price change % for Dublin houses is reported as 5.1%... see table 7

As I said; could easily (likely) be misreading/misinterpreting. I see the 4.2% yoy.

It does makes sense though as there were price decreases at the start of the year - making up lost ground etc

You're right- there was a surprise 3% increase registered for August
As the index has no cognisance of volume- simply prices- it could be the case that thin volumes in August (when the market is virtually non-existent) were skewed by a few out of ordinary sale prices.

Anyhow- the CSO report - 1.0% increase for Dublin residential property prices in Oct, 0.9% in Sept, 3.0% in August, 0.7% in July and -0.4% in June. The 3% in August- sticks out like a sore thumb.

handlemaster

Over all prices are stable it appears

lawred2

The_Conductor wrote: »

You're right- there was a surprise 3% increase registered for August
As the index has no cognisance of volume- simply prices- it could be the case that thin volumes in August (when the market is virtually non-existent) were skewed by a few out of ordinary sale prices.

Anyhow- the CSO report - 1.0% increase for Dublin residential property prices in Oct, 0.9% in Sept, 3.0% in August, 0.7% in July and -0.4% in June. The 3% in August- sticks out like a sore thumb.

thought I saw someone somewhere (might have been on this thread) list transaction figures month by month and they seemed to be relatively stable...

can't remember whether that was national or Dublin though

The_Conductor

lawred2 wrote: »

thought I saw someone somewhere (might have been on this thread) list transaction figures month by month and they seemed to be relatively stable...

can't remember whether that was national or Dublin though

Would be interesting- if there is a volume list somewhere.
Traditionally August is quiet- and in addition- this year- it would have featured the end of the mortgage approvals under the old scheme- which in its own right may have pushed people to buy for higher prices- just to use up their approval- as they wouldn't have the same borrowing capacity (and indeed, would have the higher deposit requirements) under the new rules.

lawred2

The_Conductor wrote: »

Would be interesting- if there is a volume list somewhere.
Traditionally August is quiet- and in addition- this year- it would have featured the end of the mortgage approvals under the old scheme- which in its own right may have pushed people to buy for higher prices- just to use up their approval- as they wouldn't have the same borrowing capacity (and indeed, would have the higher deposit requirements) under the new rules.

by just using the PPR I get

Jul - 1380
Aug - 1142
Sep - 1219
Oct - 1098
Nov - 341 (obv not a complete month)

consistent enough

seamus

Well, developers and estate agents, seem to think the good times are back. Received this email from DNG today (noting that I haven't spoken to them since I bought a property from them 5 months ago, let alone enquired recently)

Further to your recent property enquiry with DNG, we are delighted to announce the initial details of a brand new development called Dodderbrook that may suit your criteria.

This exclusive brand new development of traditionally built two storey “A-Rated” homes which will be finished to an excellent internal and external specification, we will be releasing a limited number of semi-detached houses from plans at pre show house prices in the coming weeks with the show houses ready to view in February 2016.

The initial Phase will comprise of 35 traditional 3 & 4 bedroom Semi-Detached houses and a number of 4 bed detached houses. These houses will be traditional in style over 2 storeys with front & rear garden with off street parking. The houses are very generous in size with 3 bedroom Semi-detached houses c. 1,270 sq ft/c.118 sq m and the 4 bedroom Semi-detached homes a spacious 1,400 sq ft/c.130 sq m. Dodderbrook is being built by Maplewood Residential, whose name is synonymous in Ballycullen, having constructed over 1,500 in this area such as Parklands, Beechdale, Wooddale and Ferncourt to name but a few.

No website, no brochures, not even a location described. And they expect people to jump in and start asking to buy off the plans before they've even broken ground.

In fact, I would be 99% sure it's this http://www.sdublincoco.ie/index.aspx?pageid=144&regref=SD15A/0150 (Allsops were appointed receivers of Maplewood Residential), so they're inviting prospective buyers before they even have planning permission.

Definitely going to speak to the bank about a loan for a Porsche next week, and maybe a couple of apartments in Slovenia (Bulgaria is so 2000s). Yeehaw!