Property Market 2015

Rew

Gemma Attractive Stakeout wrote: »

I laugh when people talk about agents manipulating offers and prices, given they yield little to know financial difference to the agent.

Agents getting higher prices then competitors by manipulating offers will, in theory, attract more customers and therefore make more money due to higher volume of sales.

alastair

Saipanne wrote: »

No, you still seem to be having difficulty. I'll try again using metaphor.

In 2014, The Regulator of Baths noticed that the flow of water from the tap exceeded the flow of water out of the drain. As a consequence, there was a danger of the overall water levels breaching the top and spilling on to the floor.

The Regulator of Baths decreed that the rate of water flow from the tap be restricted. I came on to hear around then (now, this is the really important bit, so concentrate hard!) and suggested that these rules will indeed change the *rate of flow of the water*, which may result in the increase in prices slowing or prices decreasing. *Both results are the result of the same effect.* Have a good hard think about that one now. It's a toughie.

Now, the point here is that the *rate of flow* would change, which would over time affects the overall levels of bath water from Time A to Time B (i feel like I may have lost you already, but I can't "dilute" it any further).

The main point is this. A lot of people believed the bath would just continue to rise, *the same way it did before the rule change*.

But the floor is dry, my friends. Dry as a bone.

Sowwy.

It's probably worth pointing out that the 'bath' (water I guess?) is continuing to rise. If the point of the metaphor is that the overspill equates to a bubble bursting, then, no, we're not in danger of that, but overall, that water level continues to creep upwards, albeit a safe distance from that level that caused it to overflow before. Silly metaphor mind.

athtrasna

Mod note

Play nicely folks. No need for analogies, we all speak English here and have access to the search function.

Cuddlesworth

CSO wrote:

House prices in Dublin are 33.8% lower than at their highest level in early 2007

How accurate is this? Houses in South Dublin in the areas I know seem to be selling back at 90%-100% of boom time pricing, with a few ridiculous asking prices starting to crop up.

MarkAnthony

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

How accurate is this? Houses in South Dublin in the areas I know seem to be selling back at 90%-100% of boom time pricing, with a few ridiculous asking prices starting to crop up.

I'm doubtful to be honest. 3 bed semis where going for the guts of a million. That's not to say things aren't ridiculous in South Dublin but the boom was ridiculousness upon ridiculousness.

As we all know as soon as anyone moves north of the Liffey they're immediately burgled and to death and the ability to read and write is removed from their children by the terrible schools. Hence there is a false demand and bubble in South Dublin, but that has literally been going on for years at this stage. One hoped for a soft landing due to the CB rules enforcing a bit of sanity but who knows; the more money than sense brigade still insist on living in the crime free utopia and educational Mecca that is Ballyfermot et al.

Barely Hedged

MarkAnthony wrote: »

I'm doubtful to be honest. 3 bed semis where going for the guts of a million. That's not to say things aren't ridiculous in South Dublin but the boom was ridiculousness upon ridiculousness.

As we all know as soon as anyone moves north of the Liffey they're immediately burgled and to death and the ability to read and write is removed from their children by the terrible schools. Hence there is a false demand and bubble in South Dublin, but that has literally been going on for years at this stage. One hoped for a soft landing due to the CB rules enforcing a bit of sanity but who knows; the more money than sense brigade still insist on living in the crime free utopia and educational Mecca that is Ballyfermot et al.

Bizarre post

Earleybird

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Let me take you back to your first quote as the property market is quite simple



House prices rose in 2014 in Dublin. You then said:



This explicitly states that you still expected them to increase, albeit not as fast.

Then,



which explicitly states that you expected them to decline.

They either go up or down, you cant have it both ways and then claim otherwise.

The dog on the street knew that the central bank rules would dampen the rate of increase. It doesnt require knowledge of pompous metaphors or first order derivatives explain they go up or they go down.

I would like another metaphor from Saipanne to try understand, I still can't grasp it...

seamus

MarkAnthony wrote: »

I'm doubtful to be honest. 3 bed semis where going for the guts of a million. That's not to say things aren't ridiculous in South Dublin but the boom was ridiculousness upon ridiculousness.

Some properties are up at big prices (4 bed detached for €700k) - but these are primarily new builds - large square footage, modern specs, etc.

It's unfortunate the PPR only came into being in 2010, but you can still find some old asking prices if you know when a property was up for sale, or if you find press releases about developments being built.

33% "down" on the peak still sounds about right.

As we all know as soon as anyone moves north of the Liffey they're immediately burgled and to death and the ability to read and write is removed from their children by the terrible schools. Hence there is a false demand and bubble in South Dublin, but that has literally been going on for years at this stage. One hoped for a soft landing due to the CB rules enforcing a bit of sanity but who knows; the more money than sense brigade still insist on living in the crime free utopia and educational Mecca that is Ballyfermot et al.

I think you're completely misguided on this. There are parts of North Dublin with exactly the same mindset as parts of South Dublin. Castleknock, Drumcondra, Clontarf, etc, see exactly the same snobishness that you find in Terenure, Rathfarnham & Sandyford. Ballyfermot is seen as no more desirable than Tallaght or Ringsend.

Suburban south Dublin is much bigger than Suburban North Dublin though, hence why it appears to be so popular. Note that I don't consider Swords or Balbriggan part of "suburban" Dublin. There's a massive expanse of rural Dublin between those towns and the city.

eringobragh

MarkAnthony wrote: »

I'm doubtful to be honest. 3 bed semis where going for the guts of a million. That's not to say things aren't ridiculous in South Dublin but the boom was ridiculousness upon ridiculousness.

I'll just leave this here (Sherry Fitz - October 2007)

My favourite being the 2 bed apartment in Raheny for over half a million



Absolute madness

MarkAnthony

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Bizarre post

Useless post. :rolleyes:

MarkAnthony

seamus wrote: »

I think you're completely misguided on this. There are parts of North Dublin with exactly the same mindset as parts of South Dublin. Castleknock, Drumcondra, Clontarf, etc, see exactly the same snobishness that you find in Terenure, Rathfarnham & Sandyford. Ballyfermot is seen as no more desirable than Tallaght or Ringsend.

Suburban south Dublin is much bigger than Suburban North Dublin though, hence why it appears to be so popular. Note that I don't consider Swords or Balbriggan part of "suburban" Dublin. There's a massive expanse of rural Dublin between those towns and the city.

Clearly tongue in cheek but point taken on 'South Suburban Dublin' being much larger. I also agree the snobiness, and let's be honest here, the inverted snobbiness (e.g. me) is very prevalent in Dublin. What annoys me is the constant stream of people saying there are no options in Dublin when there are, albeit in traditionally not so desirable areas. Cities change, increased house prices/ownership rates have benefits as well as down sides. People need to start thinking outside the box/postcode area and actually start looking at places with an open mind.

As for Swords/Balbriggan, I'm with you to a certain extent. Perfectly reasonable to dub them North Co. Dublin, however they're not exactly on the moon in terms of commuting and prices are relatively reasonable.

MarkAnthony

eringobragh wrote: »

I'll just leave this here (Sherry Fitz - October 2007)

My favourite being the 2 bed apartment in Raheny for over half a million



Absolute madness

While I agree on the absolute madness point, how much were the apartments in Stillorgan etc. going for near the DART out that way?

EDIT: Ah see the other attachment - 495K for a one bed in Sandyford! Jesus, scary stuff indeed!! Where did you dig up that little supplement of nightmares!

athtrasna

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Bizarre post

MarkAnthony wrote: »

Useless post. :rolleyes:

As regular posters on the forum you know the rules. No more warnings

Mod

caviardreams

MarkAnthony wrote: »

While I agree on the absolute madness point, how much were the apartments in Stillorgan etc. going for near the DART out that way?

EDIT: Ah see the other attachment - 495K for a one bed in Sandyford! Jesus, scary stuff indeed!! Where did you dig up that little supplement of nightmares!

I remember the likes of Beechwood Court, Thornwood etc. along the N11 at around 600k for a 2 bed in late 2006 - more for larger, higher floors. The price now would be around 400k, so about 66% of the peak in nominal terms. Those who say we are back at 2006/7 levels have perhaps forgotten how ridiculous things had got :eek:

eringobragh

MarkAnthony wrote: »

EDIT: Ah see the other attachment - 495K for a one bed in Sandyford! Jesus, scary stuff indeed!! Where did you dig up that little supplement of nightmares!

Its quite the eye opener isn't it saw it on thepropertypin a few years ago, pdf has been removed from Sherrys website but I'd forwarded it to the Mrs at the time as we were in the process of buying a gaff

Thread here:

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=57151

SarahMollie

seamus wrote: »

I think you're completely misguided on this. There are parts of North Dublin with exactly the same mindset as parts of South Dublin. Castleknock, Drumcondra, Clontarf, etc, see exactly the same snobishness that you find in Terenure, Rathfarnham & Sandyford. Ballyfermot is seen as no more desirable than Tallaght or Ringsend.

Suburban south Dublin is much bigger than Suburban North Dublin though, hence why it appears to be so popular. Note that I don't consider Swords or Balbriggan part of "suburban" Dublin. There's a massive expanse of rural Dublin between those towns and the city.

To be fair, i think those comments were intended to be tongue in cheek.

As someone originally from a "snobbish" northside area, but now lives on the southside, I get the point the poster was trying to make.

We were out for drinks with my BF (southside native) and his friends from where he grew up. A friend of theirs had recently moved back from Australia and was living wiht his wife in her grannys house (in Cabra) which was vacant due to the granny being moved to a nursing home. Someone in the group questioned where the house was and the response from another was "oh, the northside" and wrinkled her nose in distaste.

Its as if they think the entire northside is a homogeneous area, uniformly terrible and with nothing redeeming about it. They say this sort of thing in front of me the whole time because I don't have a "salt of the earth" Dublin accent, and for all intents and purposes am "like them", they forget where I'm actually from.

I had to practice my deep breathing for a few moments after that.

Canadel

SarahMollie wrote: »

We were out for drinks with my BF (southside native) and his friends from where he grew up. A friend of theirs had recently moved back from Australia and was living wiht his wife in her grannys house (in Cabra) which was vacant due to the granny being moved to a nursing home. Someone in the group questioned where the house was and the response from another was "oh, the northside" and wrinkled her nose in distaste.

Its as if they think the entire northside is a homogeneous area, uniformly terrible and with nothing redeeming about it. They say this sort of thing in front of me the whole time because I don't have a "salt of the earth" Dublin accent, and for all intents and purposes am "like them", they forget where I'm actually from.

I had to practice my deep breathing for a few moments after that.

Being an idiot isn't exclusive to either side of the Liffey.

athtrasna

As we now have a 2016 thread I think this one has run its course.