FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

Elmer Blooker

Very nice 6z. The high is centred to the east of us and might just be the difference between that dreadful anticyclonic gloom and clear frosty weather as drier air filters in from the east.

YanSno

very interesting indeed big changes comparied to earlier runs

nacho libre

a trend or a wobble, the ensembles were hinting at this while the op wasn't. sometimes the gfs is good at picking up on a new evolution before the other models. although it is hard seeing the high moving north like this with the jet moving back north.

icesnowfrost

this still looks good to me.




to me we are still looking good.

Nabber

Looking forward to see how this develops on the 12z

Zack Morris

Signs of an easterly later this month:

Elmer Blooker

no major changes this morning, who knows what will be happen, it could be a mild anti-cyclonic gloomy high or a cold foggy high where fog could persist all day. You know Valentine's Day is coming when you see a high shaped like this!!

Nabber

Some of the GEFS perbs look good.

Will be interesting to see how high the HP will move up.

Rebelbrowser

In terms of GFS v ECM / High Res Model's handling of tonight's low, I would point out that this morning's minor event has been predicted best by GFS. It predicted snow in Kerry & West Cork (but not Cork city) and that's spot on. As best I recall the others saw no precipitation making landfall (or nothing east of about Dingle anyway).

maquiladora

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

In terms of GFS v ECM / High Res Model's handling of tonight's low, I would point out that this morning's minor event has been predicted best by GFS. It predicted snow in Kerry & West Cork (but not Cork city) and that's spot on. As best I recall the others saw no precipitation making landfall (or nothing east of about Dingle anyway).

ECM showed the light precip that's over the southwest at the moment.

RED L4 0TH

Interesting chart on the earlier 12Z run at +300 hrs as regards the contrast in 850 hpa temperatures across Ireland. 0 in the SW and -10 in the NE.

Nabber

Not much to see if you don't like high pressure

keep people cold at night

Daniel2590

Nabber wrote: »

Not much to see if you don't like high pressure

keep people cold at night

Now that's an easterly.

200motels

Daniel2590 wrote: »

Now that's an easterly.

Let's hope.

Iancar29

:cool::cool::cool:

Nabber

All models at 192+... Lets see who wins the HIGH battle
My money is on JMA, for no particular reason. Just an amateurs guess

ECMF


GFS


GEM


JMA

Harry Palmr

Its a remarkably stable picture, pity its not June or July eh? Who is getting all our rain right now?

Speak Now

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Its a remarkably stable picture, pity its not June or July eh? Who is getting all our rain right now?

You mean who's getting all our snow

MidMan25

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Its a remarkably stable picture, pity its not June or July eh? Who is getting all our rain right now?

Don't worry, it's being saved up for a summer washout

Rebelbrowser

Happy Valentine's day...

tylercollins

If that chart comes off, I'm going to become single on Valentines Day...

RED L4 0TH

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Happy Valentine's day...

maquiladora

High pressure dominating all the way out to FI on the models....if only it was summer!

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

High pressure dominating all the way out to FI on the models....if only it was summer!

I wonder if history would be kind enough to repeat itself...?

Outlook chart for Feb 14th



Analysis for Feb 14th 1903:



Broadly similar pattern, but in 1903, the weather became more disturbed after the the high collapsed, peaking on Feb 27th when the 'Ulysess storm' roared in, which was possibly one of the worst storms of the 20th century to rage through Ireland.






Brief report on that particular storm here:
http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Feb1903_storm.pdf

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I wonder if history would be kind enough to repeat itself...?

Not looking likely....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=&y=&lat=53.481781376518214&lon=-8.113207547169814&run=0&ext=fr&mode=2&sort=0

Elmer Blooker

I wonder if history would be kind enough to repeat itself? Part 2.
(No charts worth posting so a little escapism won't do any harm)

1891 After a very mild and dry February, March must have come as bit of a shock. The winds turned to the north on the 7th, and then there was much snow in the south. This time saw the great west country blizzard: one of the most severe snowstorms of the century on the 9-13th, perhaps one of the most severe snowstorms ever. The southwest and Kent were particularly badly affected. 220 people died as many ships were lost at sea. Apparently sheep were blown off Devon cliffs in their thousands and also lost at sea. Snow drifts were reported 20' deep, created by the heavy snow combining with a NE gale.

I presume there were blizzards in Ireland too by the look of that chart?

vistafinder

It probably got downgraded ^^^^^^^

Elmer Blooker

vistafinder wrote: »

It probably got downgraded ^^^^^^^

there was probably a warm sector over Ireland and it just rained!

Like the Spanish Inquisition no body was expecting this!
The chart even looks like this

---

> :eek:

Pa ElGrande

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I presume there were blizzards in Ireland too by the look of that chart?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/d/d/Mar1891.pdf

Nabber

Looks like an end to the dry weather