Asylum Seeker protest on Kinsale Road. Mod warning in OP.

alastair

AlekSmart wrote: »

Not that difficult,with some relatively small assumptions....?

2013-Total 946

2014 YTD- Total 597

2014 Crystal Ball. - 1194 (Assuming static level of increase)

I'll stick with a Crystal Ball guesstimate of 40% for now

Neither guess is evidence of anything, but it would take a pretty large assumption to turn a notional 26% increase into a 40% one.

alastair

rgossip30 wrote: »

Given the current level of increase I put it at over 40% by the year end.

That's great, but it's just you pulling a figure out of the air, and pretending it's reality. It's not. It's a product of your imagination.

rgossip30

alastair wrote: »

That's great, but it's just you pulling a figure out of the air, and pretending it's reality. It's not. It's a product of your imagination.

Ahem the current rate of new applicants to July for this year is 721 a 35 % increase you seem to forget this.

http://www.orac.ie/website/orac/oracwebsite.nsf/page/orac-stats_14-en

Just click on July 2014 and you see the total new applicants 721 . Pulling figures ?? You are getting confused.

alastair

rgossip30 wrote: »

Ahem the current rate to July for this year is 35 % increase you seem to forget this.

Not it's not - it's a 26% increase (597 for the first six months of this year, compared to 472 for the first six months last year).

http://www.ria.gov.ie/en/RIA/RIAJune(A4)2014.pdf/Files/RIAJune(A4)2014.pdf

rgossip30

alastair wrote: »

Not it's not - it's a 26% increase (597 for the first six months of this year, compared to 472 for the first six months last year).

http://www.ria.gov.ie/en/RIA/RIAJune(A4)2014.pdf/Files/RIAJune(A4)2014.pdf

add 130 for July 727 total ,542 total to July 2013 a 35% increase.

alastair

rgossip30 wrote: »

add 130 for July 727 total

Still no recipe for your claimed 40% increase in any of that. What about the actual number of refugees you're so concerned about? All of 66 so far this year. Like I said - very small numbers.

AlekSmart

alastair wrote: »

Still no recipe for your claimed 40% increase in any of that. What about the actual number of refugees you're so concerned about? All of 66 so far this year. Like I said - very small numbers.

Oh No they're not.........

rgossip30

alastair wrote: »

Assuming they're not European asylum applicants - yes. Now what is the number of asylum-granted people within the state, and what number of those are claiming social welfare?

Because, as I've already stated, it's a very small number.


If they meet the criteria, yes. Again, a very small number of people compared to the remainder of those who can apply for social housing.

You appear to know the answer so why are you asking me .

The total since 2002 is 15201 . There are no figures for those that entered from family reunification or marriage.

alastair

rgossip30 wrote: »

You appear to know the answer so why are you asking me .

The total since 2002 is 15201 . There are no figures for those that entered from family reunification or marriage.

Don't know what that figure is supposed to relate to, but since 2002 there's been 3587 refugees given asylum status in Ireland. Nowhere near 15201.

Perhaps you're confused by the total number of asylum applicants for 2002 - which is 15201 alright.

rgossip30

alastair wrote: »

Don't know what that figure is supposed to relate to, but since 2002 there's been 3587 refugees given asylum status in Ireland. Nowhere near 15201.

Perhaps you're confused by the total number of asylum applicants for 2002 - which is 15201 alright.

An error on my part its accepted 90% are bogus so the figure is low .


http://humanrights.ie/children-and-the-law/impact-of-the-cjeu-decision-zambrano-and-irish-law/

An aspect to consider was the Irish born baby fiasco and its impact today.
The figure was 16693 who got Leave to Remain and eventually residence. This also allowed the non EU mother and father to remain.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=92418736#post92418736

The numbers granted Leave to Remain 2008-2012 is 3785 see the link .

alastair

rgossip30 wrote: »

An error on my part its accepted 90% are bogus so the figure is low .

Yes, a very small number, as I've been saying.

rgossip30 wrote: »

http://humanrights.ie/children-and-the-law/impact-of-the-cjeu-decision-zambrano-and-irish-law/

An aspect to consider was the Irish born baby fiasco and its impact today.
The figure was 16693 who got Leave to Remain and eventually residence. This also allowed the non EU mother and father to remain.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=92418736#post92418736

The numbers granted Leave to Remain 2008-2012 is 3785 see the link .

1. Different subject altogether - nothing to do with refugees.
2. You're assuming all those who gained residency rights on the (legal, let's not forget) citizenship of their child, opted to stay in Ireland. Given that an Irish child is an open door to residency anywhere in the EU, and that many only stayed in the state long enough to have a child, it's safe to assume many returned to other EU states (the UK primarily).

rgossip30

alastair wrote: »

Yes, a very small number, as I've been saying.


1. Different subject altogether - nothing to do with refugees.
2. You're assuming all those who gained residency rights on the (legal, let's not forget) citizenship of their child, opted to stay in Ireland. Given that an Irish child is an open door to residency anywhere in the EU, and that many only stayed in the state long enough to have a child, it's safe to assume many returned to other EU states (the UK primarily).

You assume .There is no evidence that many returned to other EU states.

rgossip30

alastair wrote: »

Still no recipe for your claimed 40% increase in any of that. What about the actual number of refugees you're so concerned about? All of 66 so far this year. Like I said - very small numbers.

40% increase of asylum applicants by the year end .
The figure of 40% that has appeared in the media is not correct its 35% to July.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/ireland/News/article1456077.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_09_06

http://www.newstalk.com/Residents-of-Laois-asylum-accommodation-centre-refuse-food


· 166,000 new applications received in 2013. These include visas, residence, citizenship and protection applications.

The provisional 2013 year end estimate of non-EEA nationals with permission to remain in the State is approximately 120,000.
There is no breakdown but glossed over by stating the majority are for work or study . The number of new work and study visas
applied in 2013 is a total of 5476 hardly a majority !
The recent scandal about English Language and the closure of some many are using it as a back door to get residence.

http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/Immigration%20in%20Ireland%20%E2%80%93%202013%20in%20Review

http://www.thejournal.ie/work-permits-ireland-1183389-Nov2013/

http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/Statistics%20on%20Visas%20for%20Non-EEA%20Students

alastair

rgossip30 wrote: »

40% increase of asylum applicants by the year end .

Simply repeating yourself doesn't make it any more true.

rgossip30

alastair wrote: »

Simply repeating yourself doesn't make it any more true.

I stated a most likely prediction given the increase so far this year .
The figures are from the RAC website and not 'out of thin air ' .

alastair

rgossip30 wrote: »

I stated a most likely prediction given the increase so far this year .
The figures are from the RAC website and not 'out of thin air ' .

No, they're out of thin air. I see nothing on their website about any projected end of year figures, so they didn't come from there. If not there, then where? Out of thin air, is the answer.

rgossip30

alastair wrote: »

No, they're out of thin air. I see nothing on their website about any projected end of year figures, so they didn't come from there. If not there, then where? Out of thin air, is the answer.

You want to bet on it.

alastair

rgossip30 wrote: »

You want to bet on it.

That would suggest there's some uncertainty to your claim, wouldn't it?

Godge

alastair wrote: »

No, they're out of thin air. I see nothing on their website about any projected end of year figures, so they didn't come from there. If not there, then where? Out of thin air, is the answer.

To be fair, an extrapolation of existing statistics along a predictable and occurring trend is not a prediction out of thin air.

alastair

Godge wrote: »

To be fair, an extrapolation of existing statistics along a predictable and occurring trend is not a prediction out of thin air.

It's not an extrapolation though. It assumes continued growth in figures for the remainder of the year.

conorh91

alastair wrote: »

It's not an extrapolation though. It assumes continued growth in figures for the remainder of the year.

Why shouldn't that be assumed? The statistics tend to remain fairly flat throughout the year.

rgossip30

http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/Immigration%20in%20Ireland%20%E2%80%93%202013%20in%20Review

The link above shows student numbers at 39000 and work permits from 2008 to date is 30408. When you have a work permit you are entitled to claim Irish citizenship after 5 years. The figure for work permits is therefore reduced and when students finish studies they ideally return home. You scroll down to Registrations and see that the estimate for 2013 is 120000. 'The majority of whom are working or students' . A slim majority which leaves 50000 claiming leave to remain,family reunification, subsidiary protection and marriage no small figure . All of these reasons have also been subject to abuse .


http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/Statistics%20on%20Visas%20for%20Non-EEA%20Students

Link to work permit stats above .

alastair

rgossip30 wrote: »

http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/Immigration%20in%20Ireland%20%E2%80%93%202013%20in%20Review

The link above shows student numbers at 39000 and work permits from 2008 to date is 30408. When you have a work permit you are entitled to claim Irish citizenship after 5 years. The figure for work permits is therefore reduced and when students finish studies they ideally return home. You scroll down to Registrations and see that the estimate for 2013 is 120000. 'The majority of whom are working or students' . A slim majority which leaves 50000 claiming leave to remain,family reunification, subsidiary protection and marriage no small figure . All of these reasons have also been subject to abuse .


http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/Statistics%20on%20Visas%20for%20Non-EEA%20Students

Link to work permit stats above .

I've re-read this a number of times, and I'm still at a loss as to what you're claiming.

rgossip30

alastair wrote: »

I've re-read this a number of times, and I'm still at a loss as to what you're claiming.

There is still a high number of non EU coming here . When you consider the abuse in all the categories how many are genuine.
The Immigration system would not need reform if all was well as you suggest.

The question was asked to the Minister how do these people get here, it was not answered. They may have co operation with the UK on asylum seekers but there is mainland Europe.

alastair

rgossip30 wrote: »

There is still a high number of non EU coming here .

The figures are clear enough. We were talking about refugees however, where the numbers are small. The numbers with work or study visas are higher, but so what?

rgossip30 wrote: »

When you consider the abuse in all the categories how many are genuine.

I'm not aware of 'abuse in all the categories'. I'm aware that there was an issue with some students having bogus attendance records form some language schools, but I'm also aware that this has been highlighted and radically reduced.

rgossip30 wrote: »

The Immigration system would not need reform if all was well as you suggest.

What reforms are you referencing?

rgossip30 wrote: »

The question was asked to the Minister how do these people get here, it was not answered. They may have co operation with the UK on asylum seekers but there is mainland Europe.

What people? All student and work visa people here have registered where they're coming from.

rgossip30

alastair wrote: »

The figures are clear enough. We were talking about refugees however, where the numbers are small. The numbers with work or study visas are higher, but so what?


I'm not aware of 'abuse in all the categories'. I'm aware that there was an issue with some students having bogus attendance records form some language schools, but I'm also aware that this has been highlighted and radically reduced.


What reforms are you referencing?


What people? All student and work visa people here have registered where they're coming from.

I did not mention refugees in this post . I am referring specifically about leave to remain as its an easier way to get residence here . You can still have a child and get leave to remain . A practice many asylum seekers resort to and its rising. Those served with deportation orders go into hiding and add to the undocumented estimated at 30K. The figure of 50K are those not here to to work or study mentioned in a previous post.


http://www.thejournal.ie/sham-marriage-991400-Jul2013/
sham marriages
The law was changed to include the requirement of an apostle cert for non eu . Why it took 15 years to change this perhaps ignored.

Leave to Remain asylum seekers having children to get this status.


http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0902/640927-english-language-schools/
The closure of 7 language hardly to be ignored !

The single procedure after years of pressure is finally to be introduced next year . How this will work is a matter of time . The numbers of leave to remain may still increase.
More security at airports in Europe and airlines checking for visa's before boarding. There is still no proper co operation with with the EU apart from the UK on checking asylum seekers for previous asylum applications .

I am referring to those that arrive here to claim asylum . The Minister was concerned about how children from the Congo are put on flights and arrive here unaccompanied.

Your one line comments without links lack substance .

alastair

rgossip30 wrote: »

I did not mention refugees in this post . I am referring specifically about leave to remain as its an easier way to get residence here . You can still have a child and get leave to remain . A practice many asylum seekers resort to and its rising.

This is a thread about asylum seekers / refugees.

Getting leave to remain is not particularly easy, and getting leave to remain through having a kid here is not an option that anyone can apply. You're claiming that it is doesn't change the rules of eligibility - which do not include parenthood as a qualifier. Marriage / civil partnership with an Irish citizen is a possible route to getting leave to remain, but getting pregnant is not.

AlekSmart

alastair wrote: »

This is a thread about asylum seekers / refugees.

Getting leave to remain is not particularly easy, and getting leave to remain through having a kid here is not an option that anyone can apply. You're claiming that it is doesn't change the rules of eligibility - which do not include parenthood as a qualifier. Marriage / civil partnership with an Irish citizen is a possible route to getting leave to remain, but getting pregnant is not.

As an excercise,it would be illuminating to see figures for the number of single women and their Irish born children who have been deported,as it would clarify this particular disagreement..?

alastair

AlekSmart wrote: »

As an excercise,it would be illuminating to see figures for the number of single women and their Irish born children who have been deported,as it would clarify this particular disagreement..?

It wouldn't have any bearing on the rules, any more than the figures for those deported, with, or without spectacles, would have. There's no disagreement - it's a matter of unambiguous legislation.

AlekSmart

alastair wrote: »

It wouldn't have any bearing on the rules, any more than the figures for those deported, with, or without spectacles, would have. There's no disagreement - it's a matter of unambiguous legislation.

Bearing or not,they would remain...."Interesting" figures....;)