AlekSmart wrote: » Not that difficult,with some relatively small assumptions....? 2013-Total 946 2014 YTD- Total 597 2014 Crystal Ball. - 1194 (Assuming static level of increase) I'll stick with a Crystal Ball guesstimate of 40% for now
rgossip30 wrote: » Given the current level of increase I put it at over 40% by the year end.
alastair wrote: » That's great, but it's just you pulling a figure out of the air, and pretending it's reality. It's not. It's a product of your imagination.
rgossip30 wrote: » Ahem the current rate to July for this year is 35 % increase you seem to forget this.
alastair wrote: » Not it's not - it's a 26% increase (597 for the first six months of this year, compared to 472 for the first six months last year).http://www.ria.gov.ie/en/RIA/RIAJune(A4)2014.pdf/Files/RIAJune(A4)2014.pdf
rgossip30 wrote: » add 130 for July 727 total
alastair wrote: » Still no recipe for your claimed 40% increase in any of that. What about the actual number of refugees you're so concerned about? All of 66 so far this year. Like I said - very small numbers.
alastair wrote: » Assuming they're not European asylum applicants - yes. Now what is the number of asylum-granted people within the state, and what number of those are claiming social welfare? Because, as I've already stated, it's a very small number. If they meet the criteria, yes. Again, a very small number of people compared to the remainder of those who can apply for social housing.
rgossip30 wrote: » You appear to know the answer so why are you asking me . The total since 2002 is 15201 . There are no figures for those that entered from family reunification or marriage.
alastair wrote: » Don't know what that figure is supposed to relate to, but since 2002 there's been 3587 refugees given asylum status in Ireland. Nowhere near 15201. Perhaps you're confused by the total number of asylum applicants for 2002 - which is 15201 alright.
rgossip30 wrote: » An error on my part its accepted 90% are bogus so the figure is low .
rgossip30 wrote: » http://humanrights.ie/children-and-the-law/impact-of-the-cjeu-decision-zambrano-and-irish-law/ An aspect to consider was the Irish born baby fiasco and its impact today. The figure was 16693 who got Leave to Remain and eventually residence. This also allowed the non EU mother and father to remain.http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=92418736#post92418736 The numbers granted Leave to Remain 2008-2012 is 3785 see the link .
alastair wrote: » Yes, a very small number, as I've been saying. 1. Different subject altogether - nothing to do with refugees. 2. You're assuming all those who gained residency rights on the (legal, let's not forget) citizenship of their child, opted to stay in Ireland. Given that an Irish child is an open door to residency anywhere in the EU, and that many only stayed in the state long enough to have a child, it's safe to assume many returned to other EU states (the UK primarily).
rgossip30 wrote: » 40% increase of asylum applicants by the year end .
alastair wrote: » Simply repeating yourself doesn't make it any more true.
rgossip30 wrote: » I stated a most likely prediction given the increase so far this year . The figures are from the RAC website and not 'out of thin air ' .
alastair wrote: » No, they're out of thin air. I see nothing on their website about any projected end of year figures, so they didn't come from there. If not there, then where? Out of thin air, is the answer.
rgossip30 wrote: » You want to bet on it.
Godge wrote: » To be fair, an extrapolation of existing statistics along a predictable and occurring trend is not a prediction out of thin air.
alastair wrote: » It's not an extrapolation though. It assumes continued growth in figures for the remainder of the year.
rgossip30 wrote: » http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/Immigration%20in%20Ireland%20%E2%80%93%202013%20in%20Review The link above shows student numbers at 39000 and work permits from 2008 to date is 30408. When you have a work permit you are entitled to claim Irish citizenship after 5 years. The figure for work permits is therefore reduced and when students finish studies they ideally return home. You scroll down to Registrations and see that the estimate for 2013 is 120000. 'The majority of whom are working or students' . A slim majority which leaves 50000 claiming leave to remain,family reunification, subsidiary protection and marriage no small figure . All of these reasons have also been subject to abuse .http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/Statistics%20on%20Visas%20for%20Non-EEA%20Students Link to work permit stats above .
alastair wrote: » I've re-read this a number of times, and I'm still at a loss as to what you're claiming.
rgossip30 wrote: » There is still a high number of non EU coming here .
rgossip30 wrote: » When you consider the abuse in all the categories how many are genuine.
rgossip30 wrote: » The Immigration system would not need reform if all was well as you suggest.
rgossip30 wrote: » The question was asked to the Minister how do these people get here, it was not answered. They may have co operation with the UK on asylum seekers but there is mainland Europe.
alastair wrote: » The figures are clear enough. We were talking about refugees however, where the numbers are small. The numbers with work or study visas are higher, but so what? I'm not aware of 'abuse in all the categories'. I'm aware that there was an issue with some students having bogus attendance records form some language schools, but I'm also aware that this has been highlighted and radically reduced. What reforms are you referencing? What people? All student and work visa people here have registered where they're coming from.
rgossip30 wrote: » I did not mention refugees in this post . I am referring specifically about leave to remain as its an easier way to get residence here . You can still have a child and get leave to remain . A practice many asylum seekers resort to and its rising.
alastair wrote: » This is a thread about asylum seekers / refugees. Getting leave to remain is not particularly easy, and getting leave to remain through having a kid here is not an option that anyone can apply. You're claiming that it is doesn't change the rules of eligibility - which do not include parenthood as a qualifier. Marriage / civil partnership with an Irish citizen is a possible route to getting leave to remain, but getting pregnant is not.
AlekSmart wrote: » As an excercise,it would be illuminating to see figures for the number of single women and their Irish born children who have been deported,as it would clarify this particular disagreement..?
alastair wrote: » It wouldn't have any bearing on the rules, any more than the figures for those deported, with, or without spectacles, would have. There's no disagreement - it's a matter of unambiguous legislation.
