Price Changes FPL 14/15 **Mod warning 1st post**

roryc

There always is, its far easier for players to drop than rise.

hjkl

Which players dropped last night?

Swiper the fox

frimpong wrote: »

Which players dropped last night?

http://totalfpl.com/pricechanges

click on updates

Danger781

For the lazy

Bleating Lamb

Know predictions very hard at mo for price rises esp but is likes of Sterling due a .2 this week.?
Am chasing money on WC like a Russian mafia boss:)
Throw names at me of any likely .2 people bearing in mind wkd games performances.
Thanks.

alchemist33

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

Know predictions very hard at mo for price rises esp but is likes of Sterling due a .2 this week.?
Am chasing money on WC like a Russian mafia boss:)
Throw names at me of any likely .2 people bearing in mind wkd games performances.
Thanks.

Costa, Ivanovic, Naismith?

joe123

I have played my wildcard and I am trying to make a .1 or .2 to in the process. Think I made .3 last year and then the last few days I brought in the players I actually wanted.

Anyone else with an activated wildcard trying to catch any double risers?

With all sites being way off its much harder this year. Some of my .2 risers during the international break are...

Aguero
Dyer
Ivanovich
Costa
Naismith
Sterling
Dyer
Siggy

Now some of the above I will plan to keep anyways, but the aim is to try and bring in players that will rise. 2 then get rid of them for that .1 gain.

I dont even know if it will be possible this year outside of those I actually want to keep like Costa but I am going to try it anyways.

From looking at crackthecode, totalfpl and fplstatistics, it seems crackthecode is the least accurate for rises.

Anyone else got ideas/thoughts/suggestions or even trying this? Again, it does seem this year players lose value far easier than they go up.

Bleating Lamb

alchemist33 wrote: »

Costa, Ivanovic, Naismith?

Cheers, have those three in already;)

FrClintPower

I got in Moreno after today's game, not owned by many at all at the moment so hopefully he could be in for a decent rise. I'm hoping Ivan goes up as well, but he's already so expensive it's hard to see too many people getting him in.

Paully D

Any chance of Mata going down and/or Sterling up tonight? I don't even know where to look any more for accurate information re: price changes.

qwabercd

Paully D wrote: »

Any chance of Mata going down and/or Sterling up tonight? I don't even know where to look any more for accurate information re: price changes.

Not sure but I pulled the trigger on this transfer just there. Couldn't be arsed hanging around making guesses RE price rises. At some stage Sterling will rise and Mata will drop. If Sterling gets injured during international duty, so be it. Chances are he won't.

Mata has 40k transfers out and Sterling has 53k transfers in already this round per FPL website.

Will likely do Chambers --> Wilson nearer to GW4 deadline as can't see either of their prices moving too quickly.

FHFC

Paully D wrote: »

Any chance of Mata going down and/or Sterling up tonight? I don't even know where to look any more for accurate information re: price changes.

Nowhere is accurate. Its a matter of comparing them combined with guesswork.

Neither of those changes seem likely at all, but all such predictions come with a significant health warning.

In general total FPL and to a lesser extent FPL Statistics have been over calling the rises lately, I.e they predict 10 rises and two happen. There are too many drops to keep track of how they are doing there.

Fiso pretty much not worth looking at yet.

Ziegler1988

It's especially tough to tell if it's true that WC transfers don't count towards rises/drops. I did my two FTs tonight since I think Mata and Eriksen will drop soon enough; will be nervously watching the international fixtures now :pac:

Scorpion Sting

Siggy, Dier, Costa, Sterling, Weimann and Dyer all went up. Eriksen, Baines, Shelvey, Remy, Sidwell and Brady amongst those who dropped in price. First time in a long while that Baines is less than 7m.

wonski

jebforever wrote: »

Siggy, Dier, Costa, Sterling, Weimann and Dyer all went up. Eriksen, Baines, Shelvey, Remy, Sidwell and Brady amongst those who dropped in price. First time in a long while that Baines is less than 7m.

fplstatistics failed again.

Happy with Dyer - wouldn't mind if he rose again;)
Not so happy with Sterling...

G1032

jebforever wrote: »

Siggy, Dier, Costa, Sterling, Weimann and Dyer all went up. Eriksen, Baines, Shelvey, Remy, Sidwell and Brady amongst those who dropped in price. First time in a long while that Baines is less than 7m.

Guzan and Ivanovic were both supposed to go up according to FPL Statistics but didn't.

q2ice

I have activated my wildcard. Its a pain that the price tracking sites are not working.



The price increases then appear to be based on the number of transfers in against the total population.

1. The first rise once the net transfers in is 3% of the total population (approx 94,422 transfers in)
   
2. The second rise of the week is an additional 6% of the total population (approx 283,266 transfers in - 94,422 + 188,844)
   
   
3. If there are no prise rises in a single gameweek then the net transfers are carried over to the following gameweek. Otherwise they are reset to zero.
   
4. Edit: If there is a price rise in a gameweek then the remainding transfers are carried over to the next week.

The price decreasesthen appear to be based on the number of transfers in against the total ownership of that player.

1. The number of transfers out for a drop to take place is 10% of the players ownership. For example if a player has 5% ownership then he would have 157,370 owners. To receive a .1 price drop there would need to be 15,737 transfers out.
   
2. The 10% is recalculated at the start/end of each gameweek (any transfers before that deadline are not included in the following GWs changes)
   
3. The 10% is recalculated after a price change occurs (if the out were more than needed to effect a price change then the difference does not carry over - Player had 120k owners. 12k transfers are needed to effect a price drop. If there were 20k in a single day then the player would drop .1 million and the new limit would be (120k-20k)/10k = 10k. A total of 10k transfers out would be needed for another price drop the following day. (The extra 8k transfers would not count against the next days transfers as they would be reset to zero.)
   

The above is just a theory.


Costa and Naismith both had over 100k transfers in since the deadline and so both of these gained 0.1 million. Based on the above Costa would need another 100,974 transfers in and Naismith would need another 58,564 transfers.

Rooney has 111,065 transfers out since the gameweek deadline. Based on ownership he would need another approx 30k transfers out to drop



=======================================================
Price rises using Sigurdsson as an example:

GW1-2: 380,962 total transfers in

0.1 at 94,422
0.1 at 283,266
transfers carried over: 97,696

GW2-3: 97,696 + 304,669 = 402,365 total transfers in

0.1 at 94,422
0.1 at 283,266 (next 0.1 would have been at 566,532)
transfers carried over: 119,099

GW3-4: 119,099 + 70,692 = 269,791 total transfers in

0.1 at 94,422
transfers needed for another rise: 13,475

=======================================================
Price changes using Costa as an example:

GW1-2: 98,347 total transfers in

0.1 at 94,422
transfers carried over: 3,925

GW2-3: 3,925 - 155,191 = -151,266 total transfers in

-0.1 when 10% of owners transfered out (ownership at that point was 1,272,775 so 10% was 127,275)
transfers carried over: 0 *transfers not carried over for price drops

GW3-4: 0 + 182,292 = 182,292 total transfers in

0.1 at 94,422
transfers needed for another rise: 100,974

Note: It appears that transfers made on a Saturday count against the previous gameweeks transfers. There was an mass transfer out of Baines on Saturday however it is appearing under transfers for GW3 (some were for that week but not all)

roryc

Glad I pulled the trigger on Sterling last night! He didn't even look like rising on any of the tracking sites. Need to keep an eye on Rooney/Aguero over the next two weeks.

dahat

Any other changes?

Neoulous

roryc wrote: »

Glad I pulled the trigger on Sterling last night! He didn't even look like rising on any of the tracking sites. Need to keep an eye on Rooney/Aguero over the next two weeks.

Ha that's annoying... I lost £0.2m by hesitating in doing Eriksen->Sterling yesterday...

manual_man

@q2ice have you passed on your theory to the various sites attempting predictions? Maybe the maths buffs might be able to test your theory???

Neil3030

Is there anywhere to see a weekly breakdown of transfers in and out to test this theory? The FPL site only seems to give data for a given round...

PARlance

Ivan and Cesc the only 2 risers last night.
Plenty of fallers but none of major concern I'd say

biscuits1988

Did Bojan drop last night guys? Sorry, can't get on FPL at work.

OneColdHand

biscuits1988 wrote: »

Did Bojan drop last night guys? Sorry, can't get on FPL at work.

No he didn't - but I'd say he's getting close.

biscuits1988

OneColdHand wrote: »

No he didn't - but I'd say he's getting close.

Cheers. Probable 4 point hit this evening so. Bojan - Welbeck, Rooney - Aguero/Falcao. Have cash in the bank. Good riddance to only playing two up top!

El festino

roryc wrote: »

Glad I pulled the trigger on Sterling last night! He didn't even look like rising on any of the tracking sites. Need to keep an eye on Rooney/Aguero over the next two weeks.

He was the one player I logged in last night to check if he was going to rise and wasn't close! Not happy with that! Was going to swap him in for Mata (will still do it). Is that the transfer you did?

PARlance

El festino wrote: »

He was the one player I logged in last night to check if he was going to rise and wasn't close! Not happy with that! Was going to swap him in for Mata (will still do it). Is that the transfer you did?

He went up on Sunday night!

roryc

Rooney 70% to a drop. Luckily Aguero is going the other way, I'm amazed he went up to £12.1m in the first place! Couldn't score against Stoke and two tough games ahead. Unfortunately despite him getting numerous transfers out after the Stoke game he must have been just over 100% so still went up.

I would guess Rooney will drop, with Costa, Aguero and now Falcao all better replacements. I can handle a £0.1m drop but thats it!

OneColdHand

roryc wrote: »

Rooney 70% to a drop. Luckily Aguero is going the other way, I'm amazed he went up to £12.1m in the first place! Couldn't score against Stoke and two tough games ahead. Unfortunately despite him getting numerous transfers out after the Stoke game he must have been just over 100% so still went up.

I would guess Rooney will drop, with Costa, Aguero and now Falcao all better replacements. I can handle a £0.1m drop but thats it!

Aguero going up is a bit like Hutton going up. People still transferring Hutton in despite 5 stinkers coming up! A lot of people just don't look at the fixtures coming up!