Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

FIVE2_THREE

Pinesky wrote: »

Well you can't .
Who else won guineas, derby and Arc in the same season, not to mention the other 3 Group 1 races.

My god what is the obsession with Sea The Stars ? He was a good horse. some would say great BUT He had one season. 99.8% of horses who are considered great had more than just one year.

Peintre Celebre

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

My god what is the obsession with Sea The Stars ? He was a good horse. some would say great BUT He had one season. 99.8% of horses who are considered great had more than just one year.

Not sure how a Guineas, Derby and Arc winner who won six consecutive group 1s over three different trips and earned a rating of 137 can't be considered great

tryfix

Itziger wrote: »

What about the year she won it from stall 15 then?

5 lengths, was it?

Pinesky wrote: »

Posters are commenting on Taghrooda Australia Kingston etc being unlucky and loads of what ifs .
STS needed no excuses what ifs didn't have any injuries etc.
I merely pointed out how remarkable that was. And surely its not out of place in an Arc forum .

This post by Diomed might explain things a bit more clearly.

diomed wrote: »

This looks like being a fast ground year.
I posted in 2012 on Betfair that the soil at Longchamp is clay soil.
Clay cracks when dry and is very hard and fast. When wet if becomes heavy and clinging.

You will see that the faster the time the more important a low draw, especially in a large field. I assume fast ground gives a fast pace and less chance to gain ground. In the small fields in 2000 and 2006 the draw was less important.

Time secs ____ Year______Winner drawn

144.49 secs ___Yr 2011___winner drawn 2/16
144.60 secs ___Yr 1997___winner drawn 2/18
144.70 secs ___Yr 2002___winner drawn 3/16
145.00 secs ___Yr 2004___winner drawn 5/19
145.80 secs ___Yr 2000___winner drawn 7/10
146.30 secs ___Yr 2009___winner drawn 6/19
146.30 secs ___Yr 2006___winner drawn 4/8
147.40 secs ___Yr 2005___winner drawn 6/15
148.50 secs ___Yr 2007___winner drawn 6/12
148.80 secs ___Yr 2008___winner drawn 1/16
149.90 secs ___Yr 1996___winner drawn 5/16
151.10 secs ___Yr 1994___winner drawn 2/20
151.40 secs ___Yr 1991___winner drawn 12/14
151.80 secs ___Yr 1995___winner drawn 7/16
152.04 secs ___Yr 2013___winner drawn 15/17
152.30 secs ___Yr 2003___winner drawn 14/13 *
154.50 secs ___Yr 1998___winner drawn 7/14
155.30 secs ___Yr 2010___winner drawn 8/18
156.10 secs ___Yr 2001___winner drawn 15/17
157.68 secs ___Yr 2012___winner drawn 6/18
157.90 secs ___Yr 1993___winner drawn 9/23
158.50 secs ___Yr 1999___winner drawn 4/14
159.00 secs ___Yr 1992___winner drawn 14/18

* a horse drawn 14 in a field of 13 won.
I am not listing 1971 to 1990 because I have only four years data.
Draw was not recorded in the racing annuals / probably not recorded.

In the 12 fastest Arcs in that 23 year period the lowest drawn winner was 7, and that was in a small field of 10.

I am place laying these horses because they are drawn high and their odds are low.
Ectot (10); Just A Way (14); Taghrooda (15); Ivanhowe (19); Kingston Hill (20)

Perhaps a high drawn horse will win. It's a funny old game.

When Treve won the race from a high draw, it was run on soft ground in a time of 152.04, 6 seconds slower than her win in this year's Arc which was won in a time of 1.46.05.

To quote Diomed "In the 12 fastest Arcs in that 23 year period the lowest drawn winner was 7, and that was in a small field of 10."

Sea The Stars had a perfect draw in 6 the year he won on good ground.

"146.30 secs ___Yr 2009___winner drawn 6/19"

STS didn't overcome a bad draw, he had a briliant draw which doesn't take away from his brilliantly tough career. He didn't win his races by a street, it just wasn't how they campaigned him and that's why he could do what he did.

O'Brien has never had a legendary horse like STS, and he doesn't target the Arc as a primary goal for his horses. He usually burns his good horses out by running them through the summer. Galileo is a prime example. He was on the go all Summer with two races before the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby, King George, and Irish Champion stakes. If Galileo had been trained by a French man he'd have been put away after the Epsom or Irish Derby and given a rest until the Arc Trials where he'd have had a blow out in the Trials and would have turned up on Arc day primed to win the Arc.

Generous, St Jovite, Naswan, all brilliant horse burned out by Arc day.

Pinesky

ziggy wrote: »

Zarkava couldn't run in those races but i would say she matched STS at the very least.

What Treve just did is far more impressive, a top 3 year old will by and large usually win the Arc with that much weight for age at this time of year a HUGE advantage to come back the next year and give weight away and win easily is amazing.

STS beating Youmzain by 2 lengths while receiving 8lbs WFA allowance isn't all that TBH

Please refer to my original post the words i used were good,versatile and durable.
If you have a problem with any of those words ill quit.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Peintre Celebre

ziggy wrote: »

Yep, just shows that STS victory in the Arc wasn't that special when the same thing had been done the previous two years

I think you're missing the point

paddyisreal

tryfix wrote: »

This post by Diomed might explain things a bit more clearly.



When Treve won the race from a high draw, it was run on soft ground in a time of 152.04, 6 seconds slower than her win in this year's Arc which was won in a time of 1.46.05.

To quote Diomed "In the 12 fastest Arcs in that 23 year period the lowest drawn winner was 7, and that was in a small field of 10."

Sea The Stars had a perfect draw in 6 the year he won on good ground.

"146.30 secs ___Yr 2009___winner drawn 6/19"

STS didn't overcome a bad draw, he had a briliant draw which doesn't take away from his brilliantly tough career. He didn't win his races by a street, it just wasn't how they campaigned him and that's why he could do what he did.

O'Brien has never had a legendary horse like STS, and he doesn't target the Arc as a primary goal for his horses. He usually burns his good horses out by running them through the summer. Galileo is a prime example. He was on the go all Summer with two races before the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby, King George, and Irish Champion stakes. If Galileo had been trained by a French man he'd have been put away after the Epsom or Irish Derby and given a rest until the Arc Trials where he'd have had a blow out in the Trials and would have turned up on Arc day primed to win the Arc.

Generous, St Jovite, Naswan, all brilliant horse burned out by Arc day.

So your saying aidan o brien rates the english and irish derby above the arc ? Dont believe that for a second . He bottled running australia instead they will look for the easier option.
as for being burned out....
Suave dancer ran 7 times as a three year old including the irish derby and the chamion stakes but won the arc. Nashwan did not even run in the arc . Was taghrooda burnt out yesterday ? Doubtful. Just not good enough like a lot of these so called great horses. Sts and treve are great horses who have proven it.

tryfix

paddyisreal wrote: »

So your saying aidan o brien rates the english and irish derby above the arc ? Dont believe that for a second . He bottled running australia instead they will look for the easier option.
as for being burned out....
Suave dancer ran 7 times as a three year old including the irish derby and the chamion stakes but won the arc. Nashwan did not even run in the arc . Was taghrooda burnt out yesterday ? Doubtful. Just not good enough like a lot of these so called great horses. Sts and treve are great horses who have proven it.

Suave Dancer ran in just 2 championship class races including being thrashed 3l by Generous in the Irish Derby before he went for a 2 1/2 month summer break from the end of June until the 14th of September.

Generous went on to run in the King George where he blitzed his rivals by 7l, while Suave Dancer put his feet up. When they met again in the Arc Generous the superstar finished 9 1/4l down the field clearly burnt out.

St Jovite the superstar took no midsummer break, won the King George by 6l and flopped in the Arc.

Nashwan took the Guineas and Derby by 5l, Coral Eclipse by 5l and had a ding dong battle in the King George which bottomed him, had an Arc prep which showed he was gone and promptly retired having being too burnt out to take his place in the Arc.

The French trainers are known for taking a mid summer break with their classic horses to have them spot on for the Arc.

Treve didn't run from June to September, this year or last year.

Zarkava was off from 8th June until September.

Peintre Celebre was off from June until September.

Hurricane Run was off from June until September.

Dalakhani was off from June until September.

Helissio was off from June until September.

Montjeu was off from June until September as a 3yo and won it, he won the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud and King George in July as 4yo and flopped in the Arc that year.

Sagamix was off from April until September.

The few French 3yo horses that had a race in July and won the Arc weren't going the normal Arc route for the classic generation of Prix De Diane, French Derby - Irish Derby.

O'Brien doesn't target the Arc with his best three year olds, they only run there as an afterthought to chance their arms as it were in it. It's not that he doesn't rate it, but the French are on fire for it, the ground is often soft and it's easier to make hay in mid-summer races in Ireland and England. O'Brien values the Epsom Derby and Irish Champion stakes above all other races.

paddyisreal

tryfix wrote: »

Suave Dancer ran in just 2 championship class races including being thrashed 3l by Generous in the Irish Derby before he went for a 2 1/2 month summer break from the end of June until the 14th of September.

Generous went on to run in the King George where he blitzed his rivals by 7l, while Suave Dancer put his feet up. When they met again in the Arc Generous the superstar finished 9 1/4l down the field clearly burnt out.

St Jovite the superstar took no midsummer break, won the King George by 6l and flopped in the Arc.

Nashwan took the Guineas and Derby by 5l, Coral Eclipse by 5l and had a ding dong battle in the King George which bottomed him, had an Arc prep which showed he was gone and promptly retired having being too burnt out to take his place in the Arc.

The French trainers are known for taking a mid summer break with their classic horses to have them spot on for the Arc.

Treve didn't run from June to September, this year or last year.

Zarkava was off from 8th June until September.

Peintre Celebre was off from June until September.

Hurricane Run was off from June until September.

Dalakhani was off from June until September.

Helissio was off from June until September.

Montjeu was off from June until September as a 3yo and won it, he won the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud and King George in July as 4yo and flopped in the Arc that year.

Sagamix was off from April until September.

The few French 3yo horses that had a race in July and won the Arc weren't going the normal Arc route for the classic generation of Prix De Diane, French Derby - Irish Derby.

O'Brien doesn't target the Arc with his best three year olds, they only run there as an afterthought to chance their arms as it were in it. It's not that he doesn't rate it, but the French are on fire for it, the ground is often soft and it's easier to make hay in mid-summer races in Ireland and England. O'Brien values the Epsom Derby and Irish Champion stakes above all other races.

wrong. Suave dancer did not have a two and half month break. He ran and won the irish champion stakes three weeks earlier like sts did. Fact.

lammtara, sts, suave dancer, workforce, danedream all won both the arc and the king george of the top of my head so your theory of a three month break does not wash.

As i said before o briens record is woeful and those are the facts . Three runners yesterday out with the washing and two of them lightly raced this year. Not good enough in my eyes.

Itziger

paddyisreal wrote: »

wrong. Suave dancer did not have a two and half month break. He ran and won the irish champion stakes three weeks earlier like sts did. Fact.

lammtara, sts, suave dancer, workforce, danedream all won both the arc and the king george of the top of my head so your theory of a three month break does not wash.

As i said before o briens record is woeful and those are the facts . Three runners yesterday out with the washing and two of them lightly raced this year. Not good enough in my eyes.

Isn't that 2 and a half months though? End June, early/mid September

jimjamcos

One thing to take from the Arc was Kingston Hil's massive run and the class shown by the jockey onboard. On the other hand, AOB must have watched that and thought what ta feck is Australia doing at home? No way would he have beaten Treve but on that ground, could have been a fine 2nd and enhanced a bruised rep where it mattered most.

Peintre Celebre

It probably shows just how little pace there was early on when Kingston Hill could get into such a position and the same with Taghrooda. Not sure te draw had a huge effect this year

tryfix

paddyisreal wrote: »

wrong. Suave dancer did not have a two and half month break. He ran and won the irish champion stakes three weeks earlier like sts did. Fact.

What I said..

"Suave Dancer ran in just 2 championship class races including being thrashed 3l by Generous in the Irish Derby before he went for a 2 1/2 month summer break from the end of June until the 14th of September. "

Suave Dancer (USA) Race record


14Sep91 Leo 10Gd/Y G1 85K 8-11 1/7 (4L Environment Friend 8-11) 4/6F C Asmussen — * *

30Jun91 Cur 12Y 3yG1 339K 9-0 2/6 (3L Generous 9-0) 9/4 W R Swinburn —

paddyisreal wrote: »

lammtara, sts, suave dancer, workforce, danedream all won both the arc and the king george of the top of my head so your theory of a three month break does not wash.

Suave Dancer never ran in England never mind in the King George.

Sea The Stars didn't run in the Irish Derby or King George, he stuck to 10f races after the Derby until the Arc, which is a lot easier than running in the Epsom Derby, and the Irish Derby and King George.

Similarly Workforce didn't run in the Irish Derby, he didn't fire in the King George so hadn't a hard race and went straight from the King George to the Arc. Lammtarra had only three races in total that year including the Arc and went straight from the King George to the Arc without a prep race and Sinndar didn't run in the King George and had a French style preparation of Epsom Derby, Irish Derby 2nd July and a break until the Arc trials in September . Danedream won her Arc in as a 3 yo and her King George as a 4yo.

None of those horses did the King George/Irish Derby Arc double without taking the guts of 2 1/2 months of a break from racing.

paddyisreal wrote: »

As i said before o briens record is woeful and those are the facts . Three runners yesterday out with the washing and two of them lightly raced this year. Not good enough in my eyes.

I never said he'd a good record in the race, and I pointed out that he doesn't target the race with his best horses. Ruler Of The World was just too moderate of a Derby winner to win an Arc, he wasn't even O'Brien's best 3yo last year. Australia is probably good enough to win an Arc, but O'Brien as I said he doesn't care a great deal about the Arc and didn't bother his ass sending the horse to the Arc.

Since the French Derby was fkd up by dropping it in trip, no French Derby winner has won the race and the French 3yo colts staying pattern is even more fkd up.

UrbanFret

The brave carried all before him in 86 and should have rolled up in paris unbeaten. He did it from 15 to boot.;)

tryfix

UrbanFret wrote: »

The brave carried all before him in 86 and should have rolled up in paris unbeaten. He did it from 15 to boot.;)

And broke the track record from stall 15 on good ground.

And ran a faster penultimate furlong in defeat in the Epsom Derby than Frankel ever ran at any trip.

CHAMPION.....;)

And ran the last furlong of the Arc in 10.8 seconds.

Gringo180

A lot of praise has been heaped upon Treve and rightfully so, but have we ever seen a better training performance than that?

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

And broke the track record from stall 15 on good ground.

And ran a faster penultimate furlong in defeat in the Epsom Derby than Frankel ever ran at any trip.

CHAMPION.....;)

Pity they bottled it with Frankel, his legacy could of been so much more if they had of went for the big middle distance races. He would of got that Arc trip doing handstands.

Peintre Celebre

Gringo180 wrote: »

Pity they bottled it with Frankel, his legacy could of been so much more if they had of went for the big middle distance races. He would of got that Arc trip doing handstands.

Why are you so sure? It's all speculation. His full brother didn't get it, his 3/4s brother didn't and his half siblings didn't get anywhere near it. Personally don't think he would have

DylanAFC

Off topic but any forum veterans have a link to a Frankel vs Sea the Stars thread?

tryfix

Gringo180 wrote: »

Pity they bottled it with Frankel, his legacy could of been so much more if they had of went for the big middle distance races. He would of got that Arc trip doing handstands.

He wasn't up to it as a 3yo. Would have won the 2012 King George as a 4yo and might have loved the muck in Solemia's Arc. Don't think he would have been as highly rated over 12f. He wasn't that far ahead of Nathaniel at 10 1/2f and Nathaniel wasn't exactly Shergar.

Gringo180

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Why are you so sure? It's all speculation. His full brother didn't get it, his 3/4s brother didn't and his half siblings didn't get anywhere near it. Personally don't think he would have

Noble Mission got it and Bullet Train won over 11 and a half furlongs. Frankel himself posted his best performance over the extended 10 furlongs at York in the Juddmonte. Your correct its speculation but I think he would of got it easily.

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

He wasn't up to it as a 3yo. Would have won the 2012 King George as a 4yo and might have loved the muck in Solemia's Arc. Don't think he would have been as highly rated over 12f. He wasn't that far ahead of Nathaniel at 10 1/2f and Nathaniel wasn't exactly Shergar.

The horse himself was an absolute freak but no doubt about it they have him rated a few pounds higher than he should of been.

Peintre Celebre

Gringo180 wrote: »

Noble Mission got it and Bullet Train won over 11 and a half furlongs. Frankel himself posted his best performance over the extended 10 furlongs at York in the Juddmonte. Your correct its speculation but I think he would of got it easily.

I forgot Bullet Train won a Derby Trial, funny but he never looked like getting the trip any other time. Noble Mission definitely doesn't get it, watch his run at Saint Cloud he had absolute legs of jelly at the end of it, think he had a four lengths lead coming into the final 150 yards before walking over the line

tryfix

Gringo180 wrote: »

Noble Mission got it and Bullet Train won over 11 and a half furlongs. Frankel himself posted his best performance over the extended 10 furlongs at York in the Juddmonte. Your correct its speculation but I think he would of got it easily.

Noble Mission has good 12f form, a Gp 1 Grand Prix de Saint Cloud and a Gp3 Gordon Stakes win over Leger winner Encke and a listed 12f win plus lots of placed 12f Gp form. He is a horse who's matured well like his brother did and whose best form is on soft ground, just like Frankel.

Noble Mission has no problem staying he's just not top drawer or near it on anything other than soft.

Peintre Celebre

I think I'm losing my mind. Why did I think Noble only ran once over 12

Gringo180

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I forgot Bullet Train won a Derby Trial, funny but he never looked like getting the trip any other time. Noble Mission definitely doesn't get it, watch his run at Saint Cloud he had absolute legs of jelly at the end of it, think he had a four lengths lead coming into the final 150 yards before walking over the line

I think its the way NM is ridden that unravels him at the end of a race, hes won a few 1m 4f races and got in front in the last few yards when he has been held up.

FIVE2_THREE

The Brave had a tremendous Arc but Manila ripped him apart. MANILA, still I wonder about that.

FIVE2_THREE

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Not sure how a Guineas, Derby and Arc winner who won six consecutive group 1s over three different trips and earned a rating of 137 can't be considered great

I'm not going to squabble about ones differentiation of greatness. But I will say this. If Pale gave Brazil one good world cup would he still be the stuff of legend ? If Lester rode only One derby winner would he still be acknowledged the world over as the best jockey ever ? One good season is nice but give me a horse who decimates his competition over an extended period of time any day.

Peintre Celebre

Hardly comparable but each to their own

Gringo180

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

I'm not going to squabble about ones differentiation of greatness. But I will say this. If Pale gave Brazil one good world cup would he still be the stuff of legend ? If Lester rode only One derby winner would he still be acknowledged the world over as the best jockey ever ? One good season is nice but give me a horse who decimates his competition over an extended period of time any day.

The thing I respect about Sea The Stars is they went for all the top races, be it at a mile up to a mile and a half even tho he wasnt guaranteed to get the trip.