Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

tryfix

It usually takes a horse who's won a championship class race/classic easily in the year to win the Arc.

In recent times the Arc has been won by the classy Derby winners Sea The Stars, Workforce and by the Irish Derby winners Hurricane Run and Dylan Thomas ( as a 3yo the previous year ) who won one of the other Key Arc trials the King George in his Arc winning year. The French horses Zarkava and Treve had shown brilliant classic form blowing away rivals in their French classic wins.

There are a few outstanding horse in the Arc this year. Taghrooda has been outstanding this year, easily winning her Oaks and King George this year. She's quite possibly going to pull away from the field at the end of this years Arc. Her York conqueror Tapestry doesn't have the brilliance of an Arc winning 3yo, but she beat Taghrooda fair and square at York and is the best outsider in the field. I'd be put off Taghrooda by the performance of Gosden's horses in the Arc over the years.


Avenir Certain has the Treve and Zarkava French classic wining brilliance, though not so much of the collateral form. She's a very good prospect and I'll be backing her and/or Ectot who's shown a lot of class to easily beat the French 2,000 guineas winner over 8f at the start of the year under a hands and heels ride ride, before showing that he handles 12f no problem in the Niel.

The Japanese horse Just A Way is the highest rated Japanese horse ever to contest the Arc ( and Japanese horses have come close to winning before ) . He's probably on the edge of winning an Arc ratings wise and has the kind of brilliant easy winning form of an Arc winner.

He's very good value ATM, but I fancy the two unexposed French 3yos Avenir Certain and Ectot to show what a brilliant crop this years 3yos are.

I respect Ivanhowe and Ruler Of The World, but surely they are place prospects more than winning prospects.

FIVE2_THREE

tryfix wrote: »

It usually takes a horse who's won a championship class race/classic easily in the year to win the Arc.

In recent times the Arc has been won by the classy Derby winners Sea The Stars, Workforce and by the Irish Derby winners Hurricane Run and Dylan Thomas ( as a 3yo the previous year ) who won one of the other Key Arc trials the King George in his Arc winning year. The French horses Zarkava and Treve had shown brilliant classic form blowing away rivals in their French classic wins.

There are a few outstanding horse in the Arc this year. Taghrooda has been outstanding this year, easily winning her Oaks and King George this year. She's quite possibly going to pull away from the field at the end of this years Arc. Her York conqueror Tapestry doesn't have the brilliance of an Arc winning 3yo, but she beat Taghrooda fair and square at York and is the best outsider in the field. I'd be put off Taghrooda by the performance of Gosden's horses in the Arc over the years.


Avenir Certain has the Treve and Zarkava French classic wining brilliance, though not so much of the collateral form. She's a very good prospect and I'll be backing her and/or Ectot who's shown a lot of class to easily beat the French 2,000 guineas winner over 8f at the start of the year under a hands and heels ride ride, before showing that he handles 12f no problem in the Niel.

The Japanese horse Just A Way is the highest rated Japanese horse ever to contest the Arc ( and Japanese horses have come close to winning before ) . He's probably on the edge of winning an Arc ratings wise and has the kind of brilliant easy winning form of an Arc winner.

He's very good value ATM, but I fancy the two unexposed French 3yos Avenir Certain and Ectot to show what a brilliant crop this years 3yos are.

I respect Ivanhowe and Ruler Of The World, but surely they are place prospects more than winning prospects.

He's been off for 3 months and was beaten thoroughly the last time he contested 12 furlongs by lesser horses than these. Ratings can tell a story but the horse tells the truth and the truth is he wants not parts of 12 furlongs.

tryfix

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

He's been off for 3 months and was beaten thoroughly the last time he contested 12 furlongs by lesser horses than these. Ratings can tell a story but the horse tells the truth and the truth is he wants not parts of 12 furlongs.

The only time he ran at 12f was as a 3yo when he was an unfancied 112/10 chance for the Japanese Derby. He was also beaten by 5l, 6l, and 5l in his previous races. In fact he had only won a single race out of 5 starts before the Japanese Derby and that was a 1/2l win of a Gp3. How was he supposed to win a 12f Derby when he wasn't within an asses roar of winning it on form?

He's now a 5yo and has improved his form to an extent that he's now rated the best horse in the world. Before he hit that height in the ratings he didn't just beat Gentildonna by 4l over 10f, he thrashed her with ease " stayed on strongly and forged clear inside final furlong, impressive".

That's not the form of a horse who's no chance of staying 12f. He's suspect on stamina on breeding and on earlier form. Some horses take some maturing to stay. Take a horse like Daylami who raced at 8f at 3 failed to win at 12f at 4 and won a King George by 5l at 5.

On DI Just A Way is a high 2.50, but Dancing Brave was 2.36, Sea The Stars was 3.00 and Zarkava was 2.20. So he can possibly do it based on his easy going away 10f win over Gentildonna where he stepped up his defeat of the third that day to 6l from the 1/2l he beat that same horse over 9f in his previous start.

My biggest worry with him is if the ground turned soft, then I would give him zero chance.

Peintre Celebre

The crucial draw

byronbay2

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

The crucial draw

Thanks for that - always vital info, although I'll never forget Zarkava winning from a draw in the carpark a few years back!

Taghrooda being drawn 15 is a bit of a bummer and puts me off her to a great extent. With heavy rain possible (or not!) in Paris on Sunday, the race has become very messy and unpredictable. If I have a bet at all now, it will be within 5 minutes of the off. Still an exciting race (would love to see a Japanese winner) but not really an enticing betting proposition now. However, there is still the strong possibility of crazy prices on the PMU (because of the 3 Japanese horses) and that could make things very interesting!

DylanAFC

Kingston Hill....

Earendil

byronbay2 wrote: »

Thanks for that - always vital info, although I'll never forget Zarkava winning from a draw in the carpark a few years back!

Taghrooda being drawn 15 is a bit of a bummer and puts me off her to a great extent. With heavy rain possible (or not!) in Paris on Sunday, the race has become very messy and unpredictable. If I have a bet at all now, it will be within 5 minutes of the off. Still an exciting race (would love to see a Japanese winner) but not really an enticing betting proposition now. However, there is still the strong possibility of crazy prices on the PMU (because of the 3 Japanese horses) and that could make things very interesting!

Could someone explain to a clueless punter the preferred draw please? 1, 20 or central?

Peintre Celebre

Earendil wrote: »

Could someone explain to a clueless punter the preferred draw please? 1, 20 or central?

Middle to low, the wider the worse it is, it's a right handed track those drawn 20 or around there will be on the wide right, more ground to cover into the turn they may end up further back than ideal or having to race a few horses wide

Itziger

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Middle to low, the wider the worse it is, it's a right handed track those drawn 20 or around there will be on the wide right, more ground to cover into the turn they may end up further back than ideal or having to race a few horses wide

I think you'll find it's a right handed track. That is to say clockwise. As for the wide draw, I wouldn't be over the moon or anything but Treve won it last year from 17/18 or something and she was light, raced wide enough, got a few bumps but just happened to be the best horse on the day by quite a bit.

Itziger

Lads, weather here in Lux is absolutely beautiful and ground is well dry (I run a fair bit). It's supposed to change on Sunday but checking Paris weather it's saying sun for Sunday still, though cooler.

It'll be good at the least if it doesn't rain.

longshotvalue

Treve same draw as last year. Winner Alright ... 10/1

Peintre Celebre

Itziger wrote: »

I think you'll find it's a right handed track. That is to say clockwise. As for the wide draw, I wouldn't be over the moon or anything but Treve won it last year from 17/18 or something and she was light, raced wide enough, got a few bumps but just happened to be the best horse on the day by quite a bit.

No I know I corrected myself, if it was left handed it wouldn't be a hindrance being drawn on the right as that would mean they're effectively 1.

I'm pretty sure Treve was 15

Itziger

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

No I know I corrected myself, if it was left handed it wouldn't be a hindrance being drawn on the right as that would mean they're effectively 1.

I'm pretty sure Treve was 15

Yeah, you'd corrected it by the time I posted! Anyway, I reckon the weather will be as important or more important than the draw.

Question: If you back with an online bookie and they offer the possibility of doing Pari Mutuel, are you guaranteed the PM price in the case of the Japanese doing mad shenanigans again? Cos if I recall rightly, the year of Deep Impact the eventual winner's price shot up to something like 27.0 just before the off.

Would a UK/Irish online operation have paid out on 26/1 that year???

Peintre Celebre

Itziger wrote: »

Yeah, you'd corrected it by the time I posted! Anyway, I reckon the weather will be as important or more important than the draw.

Question: If you back with an online bookie and they offer the possibility of doing Pari Mutuel, are you guaranteed the PM price in the case of the Japanese doing mad shenanigans again? Cos if I recall rightly, the year of Deep Impact the eventual winner's price shot up to something like 27.0 just before the off.

Would a UK/Irish online operation have paid out on 26/1 that year???

Yeah isn't the PM just like tote, you back your horse and you get paid out at the dividend is settled at regardless of what the price was as you backed it


Can anyone tell me, with horses being coupled, Ectot and Ruler of the World are only part owned by al shaqab, they're not coupled are they? Same with Ruler of the World with the two ballydoyle fillies

Itziger

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Yeah isn't the PM just like tote, you back your horse and you get paid out at the dividend is settled at regardless of what the price was as you backed it


Can anyone tell me, with horses being coupled, Ectot and Ruler of the World are only part owned by al shaqab, they're not coupled are they? Same with Ruler of the World with the two ballydoyle fillies

That annoys the crap out of me. Have no idea on the part-owned problem, hadn't thought of that but the 'Real' Ballydoyle horses will be coupled, that's certain. Would it come down to percentage of ownership?

longshotvalue

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I'm pretty sure Treve was 15

Maybe i got mixed up , well even better as she is 3 now..

Itziger

Treve was second from the end if not the widest of all but trainer said, no problemo. I think jockey said same. I like it when the trainer and/or jockey is positive instead of preparing excuses beforehand. Checkout the replay, she got a couple of bumps too to keep her wide!

tryfix

Earendil wrote: »

Could someone explain to a clueless punter the preferred draw please? 1, 20 or central?

The draw matters, with only two winners in the last twelve years (Dalakhani and Treve) racing from a stall number higher than nine. Stall one is a coffin box and only one horse (Carroll House Drawn 16) has managed to win from a draw higher than 15 in the last twenty six years, and that was on good ground.
Horses drawn in stalls two, four, six and seven have won fourteen of the last twenty seven running of the race; a strike rate of 51%.
Fourteen of the last twenty seven runnings of the Arc were won by lightly raced, strongly fancied French trained, three year olds.

What the draw does is it hugely decreases the chance of the fancied horses Taghrooda. Avenir Certain and to a much more limited extent Just A way and Harp Star, while improving the chances of the better of the well drawn horses Gold Ship, Treve, Rule Of The World, Tapestry and Ectot.

http://www.bettingmarket.com/prixarc2012.html

Peintre Celebre

Anyone else feel all value has gone from the market, unless you fancy Treve or something at a really big price. Bearing in mind Taghrooda was still available at 16/1 in the weeks after her Oaks win (PP were a standout).

I thought Ectot would have destroyed every French three year old colt this year and I stand by that- I just wonder how close he and The Grey Gatsby would have been at Chantilly if he'd have ran, at the time I'd have said Ectot in a canter but I was dis-respecting the winner


Think it is safe to say he'd have probably won the French Guineas given the way he readily beat the winner first time out this season. A Guineas winner by Hurricane Run, probably will never be seen


Also find it amazing that people make a case for Flintshire this is an absolute hound. It reminds me of the year I went to the Arc and the English lads beside us were backing Sea Moon. Imagine he went off at 9/1 for an Arc even if it was a bad year

FIVE2_THREE

tryfix wrote: »

The only time he ran at 12f was as a 3yo when he was an unfancied 112/10 chance for the Japanese Derby. He was also beaten by 5l, 6l, and 5l in his previous races. In fact he had only won a single race out of 5 starts before the Japanese Derby and that was a 1/2l win of a Gp3. How was he supposed to win a 12f Derby when he wasn't within an asses roar of winning it on form?

He's now a 5yo and has improved his form to an extent that he's now rated the best horse in the world. Before he hit that height in the ratings he didn't just beat Gentildonna by 4l over 10f, he thrashed her with ease " stayed on strongly and forged clear inside final furlong, impressive".

That's not the form of a horse who's no chance of staying 12f. He's suspect on stamina on breeding and on earlier form. Some horses take some maturing to stay. Take a horse like Daylami who raced at 8f at 3 failed to win at 12f at 4 and won a King George by 5l at 5.

On DI Just A Way is a high 2.50, but Dancing Brave was 2.36, Sea The Stars was 3.00 and Zarkava was 2.20. So he can possibly do it based on his easy going away 10f win over Gentildonna where he stepped up his defeat of the third that day to 6l from the 1/2l he beat that same horse over 9f in his previous start.

My biggest worry with him is if the ground turned soft, then I would give him zero chance.

With all that you've just said he draws stall 14. And showers are in the area for Saturday and Sunday morning

tryfix

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

With all that you've just said he draws stall 14. And showers are in the area for Saturday and Sunday morning

Correct, his chances are receding and Ectot is now the best shot out of the horses I fancy. I also think a bet on Aidan O'Brien to win the race or the Japanese as a block to win the race would be a nice saver.

FIVE2_THREE

tryfix wrote: »

Correct, his chances are receding and Ectot is now the best shot out of the horses I fancy. I also think a bet on Aidan O'Brien to win the race or the Japanese as a block to win the race would be a nice saver.

That's why I said a person can study form and back form all day but there are other factors that toss form out the window.

1. Off for 3 moths
2. Unproven over 12 f
3. Drew stall 14

NO THANKS

diomed

Prince Gibraltar is my pick (drawn 9 of 20)


I dismissed this horse until I looked at his runs on Youtube. His form 311-1323 seemed to be disimproving.

A worry is his “held up in rear/in last” comments.
Mostly ridden by Christophe Soumillon of “held up in last trio” Orfevre Arc fame.
There is some doubt about staying 12f as his dam had her one win over 9 ½ f and his sire’s maximum distance was 8f.
But Prince Gibraltar was btn a snk in an 11 runner 12f Group 1 very soft “closing on winner”.
In the French Derby 10 ½f “last halfway, stayed on strongly and went 3rd close home, nearest finish”.
Won over 10f as a 2yo would suggest a plodder, but he has imo shown finishing speed since!
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09/11/13 Criterium de Saint-Cloud 2yo 10f heavy. No 6 in maroon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbEXOsbzI9M

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03/05/14 Prix Greffulhe 3yo 10f soft. No 3 in maroon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0ZBCt2N-D4

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01/06/14 Prix du Jockey Club 10.5f good. maroon
Last with 600m to go. 3rd closing on The Grey Gatsby at the finish

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7Afg3Ar82Q

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13/07/14 Grand Prix de Paris 3yo 12f very soft. No 3 green jacket, pink sleeves, blue cap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7pviY00KJg

2nd btn a snk. He proves imo here he gets 12f. The Grey Gatsby didn't stay.
A new owner probably told the jockey to stop the "waited with in last" game.
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15/08/14 Prix Guillame D'Ornano 3yo 10f heavy. Green jacket, pink sleeves, blue cap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slNM2jwM1bc

The jockey is easy on the horse in the last 200m.
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Antepost I have only €71 at 40.45. Looked for another €110 at 44 to 50 but the price dropped to 36.
Just got another €40 at 40 in the day of race market so I'm posting on boards now. Asking for more at 40+.

His draw in 9 is fair. I would prefer 5 or 6. Worried that the jock might pull him back.
I see his jockey Jean-Bernard Eyquem has two Group 1 wins: Tie Black in the 2006 French 1000 Guineas (promoted winner); Shaka in the 1996 Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
A slight worry is that Avenir Certain (draw 1) and Prince Gibraltar (draw 9) are both trained by J-C Rouget but different ownership.
Hopefully PG not a pacemaker. Avenir Certain and outsider Montviron (draw 11) linked ownership.
Prince Gibraltar described on the Betfair forum as "not the most willing or straight forward".

Sorry to disappoint those waiting for some inside info.

Peintre Celebre

Gibraltar is an absolute nag. Smashed by Ectot last year, smashed in the Grand Prix de Paris and readily beaten in the Jockey Club. I will give up racing if he wins

diomed

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Gibraltar is an absolute nag. Smashed by Ectot last year, smashed in the Grand Prix de Paris and readily beaten in the Jockey Club. I will give up racing if he wins

1. smashed by Ectot last year
   As far as I can see Ectot and Prince Gibraltar did not meet as 2yos
   
2. smashed in the Grand Prix de Paris
   Prince Gibraltar was beaten a short neck by Gallante in the Grand Prix de Paris "closing on winner at finish"
   
3. readily beaten in the Jockey Club
   Prince Gibraltar was 3rd in the Prix du Jockey Club to The Grey Gatsby btn 3l and nk "stayed on strongly and went 3rd close home, nearest finish"

He is trading at 40s so I think you might not have to give up racing, but perhaps you should brush up on the form.

Peintre Celebre

You're right Diomed they didn't meet.

He might have been closing cut he was readily beaten by the Gatsby he won by three lengths. And that Grand Prix de Paris is probably the worst group 1 ran in Europe all year. The winner Galante was brushed aside by Ectot last time out. I think 40s on Gibraltar is about 25 points too short but I still wish you the best of luck.

8 1/2 lengths Gallante was beaten by Ectot

diomed

So they didn't meet, and the rest is supposition.

Peintre Celebre

Hyperbole. Gallante would be 66 or bigger for this not sure why Prince Gibraltar is that short

diomed

Gallante beat Prince Gibraltar a short neck with Teletext 2 1/2 lengths third.
Ectot beat Teletext a neck.

How did that happen? Surely Ectot should have beaten Teletext by a few lengths?

Peintre Celebre

Did you watch the race or are you looking at a result