Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Prince Gibraltar is my pick (drawn 9 of 20)


I dismissed this horse until I looked at his runs on Youtube. His form 311-1323 seemed to be disimproving.

A worry is his “held up in rear/in last” comments.
Mostly ridden by Christophe Soumillon of “held up in last trio” Orfevre Arc fame.
There is some doubt about staying 12f as his dam had her one win over 9 ½ f and his sire’s maximum distance was 8f.
But Prince Gibraltar was btn a snk in an 11 runner 12f Group 1 very soft “closing on winner”.
In the French Derby 10 ½f “last halfway, stayed on strongly and went 3rd close home, nearest finish”.
Won over 10f as a 2yo would suggest a plodder, but he has imo shown finishing speed since!
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09/11/13 Criterium de Saint-Cloud 2yo 10f heavy. No 6 in maroon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbEXOsbzI9M

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03/05/14 Prix Greffulhe 3yo 10f soft. No 3 in maroon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0ZBCt2N-D4

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01/06/14 Prix du Jockey Club 10.5f good. maroon
Last with 600m to go. 3rd closing on The Grey Gatsby at the finish

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7Afg3Ar82Q

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13/07/14 Grand Prix de Paris 3yo 12f very soft. No 3 green jacket, pink sleeves, blue cap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7pviY00KJg

2nd btn a snk. He proves imo here he gets 12f. The Grey Gatsby didn't stay.
A new owner probably told the jockey to stop the "waited with in last" game.
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15/08/14 Prix Guillame D'Ornano 3yo 10f heavy. Green jacket, pink sleeves, blue cap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slNM2jwM1bc

The jockey is easy on the horse in the last 200m.
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Antepost I have only €71 at 40.45. Looked for another €110 at 44 to 50 but the price dropped to 36.
Just got another €40 at 40 in the day of race market so I'm posting on boards now. Asking for more at 40+.

His draw in 9 is fair. I would prefer 5 or 6. Worried that the jock might pull him back.
I see his jockey Jean-Bernard Eyquem has two Group 1 wins: Tie Black in the 2006 French 1000 Guineas (promoted winner); Shaka in the 1996 Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
A slight worry is that Avenir Certain (draw 1) and Prince Gibraltar (draw 9) are both trained by J-C Rouget but different ownership.
Hopefully PG not a pacemaker. Avenir Certain and outsider Montviron (draw 11) linked ownership.
Prince Gibraltar described on the Betfair forum as "not the most willing or straight forward".

Sorry to disappoint those waiting for some inside info.

Good pick for an outsider, there are good form lines there though he would need soft ground to show his best and I don't think there're too many stamina worries even with his speedy pedigree because he won a Gp1 over 10f as a 2yo. A race that has worked out well with the decent types such as subsequent Gp3 winners Hartnell and Mekong River thrashed as well as the Gp1 Prix Saint Alary 3rd promoted to second Bereni Ka.


He's roughly about the same horse as Kingston Hill, who beat Hartnell 6 1/2l in the Leger vs Prince Gibraltar's 6 3/4l Gp 1 2yo win over the same horse.

Don't think either Kingston Hill or Prince Gibraltar are fast enough to be in a close enough position at the business end of the race to challenge for a win in the Arc unless the ground is like a bog.

Gringo180

Have narrowed it down to 3 horses. The winner will come from 1 of Chicquita, Ivanhowe or Kingston Hill. Yous heard it here first lads!!!

Gringo180

Avenir Certain surely cant win an Arc on pedigree. Sire stands at only 7k, ill eat my hat if that wins an Arc :pac:

Backstreet Moyes

Can you back singles on the pmu for the arc? I was told if you back an O Brien horse on the pmu you can only get a package for all his horses.

Peintre Celebre

Gringo180 wrote: »

Avenir Certain surely cant win an Arc on pedigree. Sire stands at only 7k, ill eat my hat if that wins an Arc :pac:

In fairness this is his first crop. He himself won a French derby. Hurricane Run (ectot) only stands at 8k I think. I'd be more worried about type of sire as opposed to price. That said even Danehill sired an Arc winner, there can be flukes in breeding, cirrus des Aigles always a good example

diomed

This looks like being a fast ground year.
I posted in 2012 on Betfair that the soil at Longchamp is clay soil.
Clay cracks when dry and is very hard and fast. When wet if becomes heavy and clinging.

You will see that the faster the time the more important a low draw, especially in a large field. I assume fast ground gives a fast pace and less chance to gain ground. In the small fields in 2000 and 2006 the draw was less important.

Time secs ____ Year______Winner drawn

144.49 secs ___Yr 2011___winner drawn 2/16
144.60 secs ___Yr 1997___winner drawn 2/18
144.70 secs ___Yr 2002___winner drawn 3/16
145.00 secs ___Yr 2004___winner drawn 5/19
145.80 secs ___Yr 2000___winner drawn 7/10
146.30 secs ___Yr 2009___winner drawn 6/19
146.30 secs ___Yr 2006___winner drawn 4/8
147.40 secs ___Yr 2005___winner drawn 6/15
148.50 secs ___Yr 2007___winner drawn 6/12
148.80 secs ___Yr 2008___winner drawn 1/16
149.90 secs ___Yr 1996___winner drawn 5/16
151.10 secs ___Yr 1994___winner drawn 2/20
151.40 secs ___Yr 1991___winner drawn 12/14
151.80 secs ___Yr 1995___winner drawn 7/16
152.04 secs ___Yr 2013___winner drawn 15/17
152.30 secs ___Yr 2003___winner drawn 14/13 *
154.50 secs ___Yr 1998___winner drawn 7/14
155.30 secs ___Yr 2010___winner drawn 8/18
156.10 secs ___Yr 2001___winner drawn 15/17
157.68 secs ___Yr 2012___winner drawn 6/18
157.90 secs ___Yr 1993___winner drawn 9/23
158.50 secs ___Yr 1999___winner drawn 4/14
159.00 secs ___Yr 1992___winner drawn 14/18

* a horse drawn 14 in a field of 13 won.
I am not listing 1971 to 1990 because I have only four years data.
Draw was not recorded in the racing annuals / probably not recorded.

In the 12 fastest Arcs in that 23 year period the lowest drawn winner was 7, and that was in a small field of 10.

I am place laying these horses because they are drawn high and their odds are low.
Ectot (10); Just A Way (14); Taghrooda (15); Ivanhowe (19); Kingston Hill (20)

Perhaps a high drawn horse will win. It's a funny old game.

Pinesky

Nice piece of analysis.
Well done

Backstreet Moyes

Can't believe Treve and Tapestry are the same price.

tryfix

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

In fairness this is his first crop. He himself won a French derby. Hurricane Run (ectot) only stands at 8k I think. I'd be more worried about type of sire as opposed to price. That said even Danehill sired an Arc winner, there can be flukes in breeding, cirrus des Aigles always a good example

There's plenty of stamina in Le Havre's pedigree, his dam is a really stoutly bred German mare. He had a Gp 2 winner over 1m 7f today at Longchamp and he's a fabulous sire when you consider his first crop were conceived from a fee of just €5,000. He'd make a nice addition to some stud over here.

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Treve same draw as last year. Winner Alright ... 10/1

:D:D:D:D:eek::eek::eek::eek:

Itziger

Itziger wrote: »

Treve 10/1, wow!

Won't we all look dumb if she reproduces last year's run!! And we're not on.

Yes, we will. Itziger, ya langer. Not a penny on.

DylanAFC

The Japanese would wanna pack it in at this stage.

diomed

The Japanese only want to win with a Japanese bred, owned, trained, ridden horse. The Japanese jockeys only want to win with a showboating last to first charge. A lot needs to go right for them to win this race with those preconditions.

brianetg

can someone tell me, if I put a bet on Ectot and wrote PMU on the betslip, will I get paid as he has been "coupled" with Treve (PMU 4.0)? or am i deluding myself in wishful thinking?!

brianetg

Result! Just checked the rules on the bookmakers website (Google is my friend).

3) French Racing

Prices on show by us for French racing are a guide only; these prices can be taken by you provided that you ensure that they are verified by a member of our staff before you place your bet. As French racing operate a coupling system, if you take a price on a selected runner, your selection is for that runner only however if you do not take a price and your bet is settled at the Pari-Mutual, your selection will be for either of the coupled runners. A forecast dividend will be returned on all races of 4 or more runners.

Saaa-weet. Ectot came 17th and I get paid!

paddyisreal

paddyisreal wrote: »

Maybe she could be placed or win but o briens record would not breed confidence. About two horses placed from a lot of runners. The arc is a different kettle of fish from the irish and english derby but i think his runners this year have a chance of a place at best.

Another disaster for o brien. Three runners today., a derby winner , a mare bought for a few million and a yorkshire oaks winner. All out with the washing.... just shows what crap we are watching with the irish derby overhere

Peintre Celebre

paddyisreal wrote: »

Another disaster for o brien. Three runners today., a derby winner , a mare bought for a few million and a yorkshire oaks winner. All out with the washing.... just shows what crap we are watching with the irish derby overhere

What does the Irish derby have to do with today?

FIVE2_THREE

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

What does the Irish derby have to do with today?

Pay him no mind. he is the typical AOB hater. notice he didn't mention Found trouncing her competition or Gleneagles being the better horse. Instead he pointed to the negative and to what took place 4 months ago.

tryfix

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

What does the Irish derby have to do with today?

Considering the Irish Derby winner Australia beat Kingston Hill who despite having the worst draw in the field today managed to get to within 4l of Treve in 4th today and that Australia has superior form to the Arc 3rd Taghrooda another horse who was mugged by the draw. I think it compliments Irish Derby winner Australia quite well. There's a strong possibility that Australia would have won today's race if they'd sent him.

paddyisreal

tryfix wrote: »

Considering the Irish Derby winner Australia beat Kingston Hill who despite having the worst draw in the field today managed to get to within 4l of Treve in 4th today and that Australia has superior form to the Arc 3rd Taghrooda another horse who was mugged by the draw. I think it compliments Irish Derby winner Australia quite well. There's a strong possibility that Australia would have won today's race if they'd sent him.

if you think anything would of beat treve today you were watching a difference race then me. Different class. Its was not a mickey mouse derby today. Sixteen different group one winners today and all beaten easy. What a horse !


???? The arc is a true group one. One if a few in the world.

Peintre Celebre

paddyisreal wrote: »

if you think anything would of beat treve today you were watching a difference race then me. Different class. Its was not a mickey mouse derby today. Sixteen different group one winners today and all beaten easy. What a horse !


???? The arc is a true group one. One if a few in the world.

Yeah but the horse Australia beat with a bit up his sleeve finished fourth from the worst draw. Wouldn't that have put Australia at least in the first three and actually counters your argument?

tryfix

paddyisreal wrote: »

if you think anything would of beat treve today you were watching a difference race then me. Different class. Its was not a mickey mouse derby today. Sixteen different group one winners today and all beaten easy. What a horse !


???? The arc is a true group one. One if a few in the world.

The Arc is the greatest race in the world, bar none.

The problem with today's race is that Flintshire finished 2l second which when you take away the mares allowance of 3lb means that for handicap purposes Treve and Flintshire are approximate equals ). So did Flintshire become a world beater? Probably not, he was drawn in 4 and Treve was drawn in 3.

Taghrooda came from a wide draw and it ruined her chances as did the Leger winner Kingston Hill, yet they finished within 3 1/4l and 4l of the winner despite that. Take Flintshire out and it'd be hard to knock the winner, but unfortunately there he is in 2nd and there's the proof of the pudding about the draw.

Itziger

tryfix wrote: »

The Arc is the greatest race in the world, bar none.

The problem with today's race is that Flintshire finished 2l second which when you take away the mares allowance of 3lb means that for handicap purposes Treve and Flintshire are approximate equals ). So did Flintshire become a world beater? Probably not, he was drawn in 4 and Treve was drawn in 3.

Taghrooda came from a wide draw and it ruined her chances as did the Leger winner Kingston Hill, yet they finished within 3 1/4l and 4l of the winner despite that. Take Flintshire out and it'd be hard to knock the winner, but unfortunately there he is in 2nd and there's the proof of the pudding about the draw.

What about the year she won it from stall 15 then?

5 lengths, was it?

Pinesky

As time goes on we will be reminded just how good,versatile and durable STS was and what an outstanding training feat by john Ox.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Pinesky

ziggy wrote: »

How is that relevant to this thread??

Posters are commenting on Taghrooda Australia Kingston etc being unlucky and loads of what ifs .
STS needed no excuses what ifs didn't have any injuries etc.
I merely pointed out how remarkable that was. And surely its not out of place in an Arc forum .

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Pinesky

ziggy wrote: »

You could say that about every horse who has won the race

Well you can't .
Who else won guineas, derby and Arc in the same season, not to mention the other 3 Group 1 races.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Peintre Celebre

The same Youmzain that was runner up in three consecutive arcs.