Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

DylanAFC

Hello all,

New to this board so I've no idea if this is being discussed elsewhere.

Anyone have any ante-post fancies for the Arc this year? And does anyone know what's AOB's plan for Australia?

FIVE2_THREE

Looks like he will cut him back to 10F holds entries in the international. the Irish champions and the Champions stakes at Ascot.

tryfix

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

Looks like he will cut him back to 10F holds entries in the international. the Irish champions and the Champions stakes at Ascot.

Big chance for Australia to make a name for himself next week in the Juddmonte. If he's the horse they say he is then he'll put lengths between himself and Telescope and Mukhadram. A 2l win over them would put him in pole position for champion 3yo.

paddyisreal

tryfix wrote: »

Big chance for Australia to make a name for himself next week in the Juddmonte. If he's the horse they say he is then he'll put lengths between himself and Telescope and Mukhadram. A 2l win over them would put him in pole position for champion 3yo.

He would want to be winning with his head in his chest. The older boys are fairly weak , mukhadram probably the poorest winner of the eclipse in a long time and telescope is not even a group one winner. It's a weak enough renewal.

Harry Angstrom

paddyisreal wrote: »

He would want to be winning with his head in his chest. The older boys are fairly weak , mukhadram probably the poorest winner of the eclipse in a long time and telescope is not even a group one winner. It's a weak enough renewal.

4/6 Australia for the Juddmonte is stealing money.

tryfix

paddyisreal wrote: »

He would want to be winning with his head in his chest. The older boys are fairly weak , mukhadram probably the poorest winner of the eclipse in a long time and telescope is not even a group one winner. It's a weak enough renewal.

It's certainly on paper a better renewal than last year's when Declaration Of War won it by 1 3/4l from Trading Leather. There's not much in it on form with Mukhadram's Eclipse win being a 2l beating of Trading Leather.

There's also the problem for Australia that he only beat Kingston Hill 1 1/4l at Epsom and Mukhadram beat the same horse by 4l in the Eclipse.

the groutch

tryfix wrote: »

There's also the problem for Australia that he only beat Kingston Hill 1 1/4l at Epsom and Mukhadram beat the same horse by 4l in the Eclipse.

the difference being that Kingston is a stayer, and was bound to fare worse stepped back to 10f.

Peintre Celebre

How do we know he is a stayer?

Warper

Like the look of Avenir Certain for this. Has looked good in winning the French Guineas/Oaks and is being trained specifically for the Arc now with no prep run in between. The main danger i feel is the German horse who could be anything

tryfix

Hard to get too excited about the Arc Trials today.


Here's the Moulin as well.

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

Hard to get too excited about the Arc Trials today.


Here's the Moulin as well.

Night of Thunder should be stepped up to 10f now, by Dubawi so he should relish it.

Edit- I tell ye one thing Treve was only out for a spin there too.

Gregk961

Still wouldnt be put off Treve by any means. As mentioned above the jockey didnt look to bothered about getting her head in front, i find that a much more encouraging display than when beaten by the fugue and magician (cant remember the race name)

Gringo180

Gregk961 wrote: »

Still wouldnt be put off Treve by any means. As mentioned above the jockey didnt look to bothered about getting her head in front, i find that a much more encouraging display than when beaten by the fugue and magician (cant remember the race name)

Prince of Wales stakes which was run on a road. Hopefully we can avail of the 8s on the day if it turns up soft.

tryfix

Gregk961 wrote: »

Still wouldnt be put off Treve by any means. As mentioned above the jockey didnt look to bothered about getting her head in front, i find that a much more encouraging display than when beaten by the fugue and magician (cant remember the race name)

I'd agree that she ran well despite being defeated, she had them covered but didn't go through with it as if something was hurting her or she wouldn't let herself down on the ground. I'd be more worried that it'd be hard to win the race two years in a row than with her ability to turn up and run well.

Harry Angstrom

I couldn't have Treve. Granted, Jarnet didn't exactly give her too hard a ride in the Vermeille, but the stats are completely against her to follow up on last year's Arc win.
Ruler Of The World looked good but he beat an exposed horse in Flintshire, and neither were good enough to get competitive in last year's Arc.

The Arc is invariably a race for 3yo's and there's no doubt in my mind that Ectot was the most interesting winner at Longchamp on Sunday. He seemed to hit the front plenty soon enough and then tended to idle. He seems to carry his tail in a strange fashion, but he's by Hurricane Run, who's a son of Montjeu, both of whom were very quirky. They both won the Arc as 3yo's, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ectot followed the family tradition by winning next month's Arc.

diomed

I won't have a bet until very close to the race. The draw is important, and the going can vary greatly due to the clay soil (check Danedream and Solemia times).

hucklebuck

Thats me done with ante post, load of bollox, the owner jinxed Sea The Moon with his not for sale ****!!

Taghrooda looks good but doing nowt til the day.

Backstreet Moyes

Anybody think Eagle Top has any chance of turning up 25/1 looks big but he probably won't turn up.

longshotvalue

I just had a good look at last years race and I'm beginning to think that Ruler of the World could back into this now very poor Arc.. Looking at last years race he travelled really well if a bit wide, stumbled around the last bend and got caught for space a few times but still finished well.. Considering he is having a nice prep for this race with a very quiet season, and the fact that he should have improved he might just be the best value in the race at the moment at 16/1..

Andalucia

I think Ruler of the World really benefitted from a super Frankie ride, can't see him being good enough to win it

could be Japan's best chance of bagging a win this year, two very good chances in Harp Star and Just a Way

interesting to see how it cuts up, expect a few more absentees - Treve looked gone at the game to me, Taghrooda had a hard race the last day, very hard to keep going to the well with these good fillies

FIVE2_THREE

I think people focus way too much on the Japanese horses. Some of that has to do with the aura of mystery that surrounds them because racing from japan is hardly shown on tv. I myself go off of precedent. so much hype comes from Japan regarding the horses they send to the Arc and for the most part they don't live up to it. I've noticed a trend among Japanese horses that's very disturbing. they tend to fade in the stretch at Longchamp. El Condor pasa faded, along with Orfevre in 2012. In 06 Deep Impact was built as Japans greatest horse ever but when Rail link put it up to him he found no response. The Jockey for Just A Way has already spoken on his doubts about the distance and the others carry an even bigger question mark. I appreciate their participation but I don't buy into the hype.

Gringo180

Andalucia wrote: »

I think Ruler of the World really benefitted from a super Frankie ride, can't see him being good enough to win it

could be Japan's best chance of bagging a win this year, two very good chances in Harp Star and Just a Way

interesting to see how it cuts up, expect a few more absentees - Treve looked gone at the game to me, Taghrooda had a hard race the last day, very hard to keep going to the well with these good fillies

Just interested as to why you think Treve is gone at the game?

Andalucia

I think its the Japanese crowd that add to the allure of the Japanese horses - they are absolutely fanatical about their horses

The reason I think Treve is gone is her last run in particular, even allowing for the fast ground, she didn't travel for me, was quite sluggish, and then hung as if she's hurting, even her first run of the year when beaten by C De Aigles, she didn't travel as well as she did in her races last year, there's surely something not right with her - Ms Head through it was Frankie so will have to go back to drawing board

I don't think we will see her defend her crown as they won't risk her when not 100%

Gringo180

Andalucia wrote: »

The reason I think Treve is gone is her last run in particular, even allowing for the fast ground, she didn't travel for me, was quite sluggish, and then hung as if she's hurting,

Agree with the way she has travelled especially in the POW stakes you could tell by looking at her in the early stages of the race that all wasn't well with her. I thought she did remarkably well to finish so close to The Fugue that day.

Peintre Celebre

Five2three you do realize Just A Way is the highest rated horse in the world?

FIVE2_THREE

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Five2three you do realize Just A Way is the highest rated horse in the world?

Indeed I do but those were the words of his jockey

YUICHI FUKUNAGA, in Britain to compete on the Rest of the World team in the Shergar Cup, is relishing the opportunity to partner runaway Meydan winner Just A Way in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, but concedes the distance of Europe's richest race is not ideal for the talented five-year-old.

Trained by Naosuke Sugai, Just A Way produced one of the best performances of the year when slamming Vercingetorix by six and a quarter lengths in the Dubai Duty Free in March under Fukunaga, who was suspended when the son of Heart's Cry captured another Grade 1 at Tokyo in June.

The rider, the son of former champion jockey Yoichi Fukunaga, will be back on board at Longchamp in October, when Just A Way will bid to break Japan's duck in the Arc.

He can be backed at 10-1, although Paddy Power go just 7-1, and Fukunaga said: "To win the Arc is a dream of Japanese people so I am very excited to ride in the race for the first time. Just A Way prefers fast ground. It's true it was soft ground last time, but as you could see in Dubai he prefers it quick.

"The trip is not ideal, but rather than feeling nervous about it I'm more excited. His ideal distance is nine or ten furlongs. Just A Way's strength is at the finish, where he can quicken - he passes the line really strongly."
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/arc-trip-not-ideal-for-just-a-way-but-rider-excited/1701783/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

rossom

A few months ago this looked like it could be the best Arc for a long time. Looks like being a poor renewal now though.

tryfix

rossom wrote: »

A few months ago this looked like it could be the best Arc for a long time. Looks like being a poor renewal now though.

Hard to know, this is an exceptional crop of 3yos, but!

Australia who won the best trial in the Epsom Derby should be making his mark in history by winning it and is instead faffing around at 10f.

Taghrooda who has a key trial in the King George in the bag has left us all puzzled with her latest run.

Ectot could hose up, as could Avenir Certain or We Are or Harp Star, or Tapestry could spoil the party again. It's a field full of fillies and what are the odds that a filly could win it for 4 years in a row?

Ruler Of The World could do a Dylan Thomas by improving at 4 to take it, which would be a downer cause we're looking for something exceptional and the simple answer may be that the best horse in the world Just A Way will win it from last year's best horse in the World Treve.

It's a cracker but figuring it out at this stage is nigh on impossible, and don't forget the quality stayer Gold Ship from Japan and Ivanhowe from Germany and wtf is Epipheneaia to be as low as 13/1 and Dermot Weld can't be sending Free Eagle so what's he doing at 11/1 in the betting and then there's some other odd ball Frenchies who won races like the Grand Prix De Paris etc.

FIVE2_THREE

tryfix wrote: »

Hard to know, this is an exceptional crop of 3yos, but!

Australia who won the best trial in the Epsom Derby should be making his mark in history by winning it and is instead faffing around at 10f.

Taghrooda who has a key trial in the King George in the bag has left us all puzzled with her latest run.

Ectot could hose up, as could Avenir Certain or We Are or Harp Star, or Tapestry could spoil the party again. It's a field full of fillies and what are the odds that a filly could win it for 4 years in a row?

Ruler Of The World could do a Dylan Thomas by improving at 4 to take it, which would be a downer cause we're looking for something exceptional and the simple answer may be that the best horse in the world Just A Way will win it from last year's best horse in the World Treve.

It's a cracker but figuring it out at this stage is nigh on impossible, and don't forget the quality stayer Gold Ship from Japan and Ivanhowe from Germany and wtf is Epipheneaia to be as low as 13/1 and Dermot Weld can't be sending Free Eagle so what's he doing at 11/1 in the betting and then there's some other odd ball Frenchies who won races like the Grand Prix De Paris etc.

The question surrounding Just a way is. where will he run his prep race ? He hasn't ran since the 8th of June He holds no other entries besides the Arc. meaning he would have been off for 4 months. You're off for 4 months and expect to win the 2nd richest race in the world ? NO THANKS

tryfix

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

The question surrounding Just a way is. where will he run his prep race ? He hasn't ran since the 8th of June He holds no other entries besides the Arc. meaning he would have been off for 4 months. You're off for 4 months and expect to win the 2nd richest race in the world ? NO THANKS

I wouldn't mind him being off the track since June or not having a prep race, the 2,000 Guineas for instance is regularly won by horses who haven't raced for over 6 months against horses who've had the advantage of Trial races. The part I'd worry about with him is taking his 130 rating too seriously. As a 5yo he suddenly improved from 123 to 130 because he won the Dubai Duty Free. Still he has some very impressive form in Japan, though he has no 12f or 11f wins to his name and hasn't a stout pedigree, he's much improved this year and has being staying on strongly in 9 and 10F races. He's still worth a nibble at the 8/1 available because his recent form is top class and his price will disappear long before race day.

Harry Angstrom

tryfix wrote: »

I wouldn't mind him being off the track since June or not having a prep race, the 2,000 Guineas for instance is regularly won by horses who haven't raced for over 6 months against horses who've had the advantage of Trial races. The part I'd worry about with him is taking his 130 rating too seriously. As a 5yo he suddenly improved from 123 to 130 because he won the Dubai Duty Free. Still he has some very impressive form in Japan, though he has no 12f or 11f wins to his name and hasn't a stout pedigree, he's much improved this year and has being staying on strongly in 9 and 10F races. He's still worth a nibble at the 8/1 available because his recent form is top class and his price will disappear long before race day.

It will definitely disappear on the day of the race, if all those crazy Japanese come over to Paris and back it into odds on with the Pari Mutuel, as they did with Deep Impact :eek:

the groutch

did Deep Impact actually go off at 1.10 on the pari-mutuel in the end that year?

byronbay2

Yeah, very important to remember that with 2 fancied Japanese horses entered, it would be wise to wait until the day to back any other horse you fancy outside of these 2. In particular, if you fancy a non-Japanese, non-French horse (Taghrooda perhaps) you could get an absolutely silly price on the Pari-Mutuel come Arc day!

Harry Angstrom

Gregory Benoist has chosen to ride Ectot over Avenir Certain in the Arc. Lemaire will ride Avenir.

diomed

113 horses to pick from.
http://www9.france-galop.com/fgweb/domaines/courses/courses_calendrier.aspx

Bounty Owners does not apply in this event and Breeders premiums shall be as follows: 135.000 (1), 54.000 (2nd), 2 7000 (3rd), 13.500 (4th), 6.250 (5th). For stallions and mares 3 years old and above. Weight: 3 year s, 56 k. ; 4 years and above, 59 k.1 / 2. Payment to the chicken owners: 7,200 to engagement on May 14 or 120,000 to the commitment on Oct. 2. Initial package: Tuesday 30 September to November h.30. The race will be preceded by a parade. A work of art will be available to the owner and a souvenir to the coach, the jockey, the rider training and the breeder of the winning horse. Maximum 20 runners. The number of starters will be reduced by eliminating horses which the service of handicappers FRANCE GALOP either assigned the lowest Handicap values.

Itziger

diomed wrote: »

113 horses to pick from.
http://www9.france-galop.com/fgweb/domaines/courses/courses_calendrier.aspx

Bounty Owners does not apply in this event and Breeders premiums shall be as follows: 135.000 (1), 54.000 (2nd), 2 7000 (3rd), 13.500 (4th), 6.250 (5th). For stallions and mares 3 years old and above. Weight: 3 year s, 56 k. ; 4 years and above, 59 k.1 / 2. Payment to the chicken owners: 7,200 to engagement on May 14 or 120,000 to the commitment on Oct. 2. Initial package: Tuesday 30 September to November h.30. The race will be preceded by a parade. A work of art will be available to the owner and a souvenir to the coach, the jockey, the rider training and the breeder of the winning horse. Maximum 20 runners. The number of starters will be reduced by eliminating horses which the service of handicappers FRANCE GALOP either assigned the lowest Handicap values.

Makes sense I suppose. Sure, who else would ya make the payment to?

kfallon

the groutch wrote: »

did Deep Impact actually go off at 1.10 on the pari-mutuel in the end that year?

I think it worked out that you could have backed every other horse in the race on the PMU that year and still guaranteed a profit once Deep Imact didn't win!

Bench Press

the groutch wrote: »

did Deep Impact actually go off at 1.10 on the pari-mutuel in the end that year?

yes, I was there, there were thousands of Japanese literally shoving wads of 100 euro notes in over the counter

diomed

Deep Impact; El Condor Pasa; Orfevre; Nakayama Festa; Hiruno D'Amour; Manhattan Cafe; Meisho Samson; Victoire Pisa; Aventino.

Is 2014 the year they win? If they do it might start a Japanese invasion of European Group races.

paddyisreal

diomed wrote: »

Deep Impact; El Condor Pasa; Orfevre; Nakayama Festa; Hiruno D'Amour; Manhattan Cafe; Meisho Samson; Victoire Pisa; Aventino.

Is 2014 the year they win? If they do it might start a Japanese invasion of European Group races.

Doubtful it will cause an invasion. Price money in europe besides the arc is a long way behind japanese racing. If just the way stays it wins.

paddyisreal

Aob has two runners left in the arc. The best horse he ever trained is too good for the arc apparently. The stakes system in europe has racing ****ed . Its like boxing with none of the top contenders competing against each other. Kingman retiring another one . Basically a load of flat track bullies. You have to admire the Japanese sending over there best and having a go .

paddyisreal

Aob has two runners left in the arc. The best horse he ever trained is too good for the arc apparently. The stakes system in europe has racing ****ed . Its like boxing with none of the top contenders competing against each other. Kingman retiring another one . Basically a load of flat track bullies. You have to admire the Japanese sending over there best and having a go .

DylanAFC

Leaning towards Just A Way at the moment but hate backing horses who are unproven at the trip.

Dunno has it been mentioned already but William Buick has picked up the ride on Ivanhowe.

Harry Angstrom

paddyisreal wrote: »

Aob has two runners left in the arc. The best horse he ever trained is too good for the arc apparently. The stakes system in europe has racing ****ed . Its like boxing with none of the top contenders competing against each other. Kingman retiring another one . Basically a load of flat track bullies. You have to admire the Japanese sending over there best and having a go .

It's not a huge surprise though. The Ballydoyle team seemed to indicate that they'd be concentrating on 10 furlong races for Australia after he won The Derby.

Gringo180

More I look at the field the more Ruler Of The World jumps out at me. Im a huge fan of Treve but I dont think she is anywhere near the level she was last season. She would blitz these if she was.

Harry Angstrom

Gringo180 wrote: »

More I look at the field the more Ruler Of The World jumps out at me. Im a huge fan of Treve but I dont think she is anywhere near the level she was last season. She would blitz these if she was.

It would be a poor enough Arc if Ruler Of The World was good enough to win it. The stats are always favourable towards French-trained 3yo's. I started following this blindly about 20 years ago and I've been rewarded plenty of times. Ectot is the one who stands out for me.

Gringo180

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Ectot is the one who stands out for me.

I don't like how close Adelaide got to him the last time out, and Adelaide got an absolute shocker of a ride that day from Moore.

Gringo180

Just noticing Chicquita has been left in by O Brien. Can't believe she is as big as 33/1. Ran an absolute blinder behind Tarfasha on her reappearance after 14 months off the course and over a trip that would of been a shade on the sharp side for her. This filly is a bit special, every time she ran last year she was green, and still managed to win an Oaks and would of got closer to Treve in the French Oaks only for veering across the track and running extremely green. The type of filly to improve at 4 and by Montjeu she will relish the 1m4f. She could lack the experience but shes the one I will be backing each way at huge odds.

Peintre Celebre

Gringo180 wrote: »

Just noticing Chicquita has been left in by O Brien. Can't believe she is as big as 33/1. Ran an absolute blinder behind Tarfasha on her reappearance after 14 months off the course and over a trip that would of been a shade on the sharp side for her. This filly is a bit special, every time she ran last year she was green, and still managed to win an Oaks and would of got closer to Treve in the French Oaks only for veering across the track and running extremely green. The type of filly to improve at 4 and by Montjeu she will relish the 1m4f. She could lack the experience but shes the one I will be backing each way at huge odds.

She wouldn't have gotten near Treve. Ectot wasn't ridden out to the line the jockey is thumping the air before he reaches the post and the colt hasn't ran since April. Look at the move in the straight where he breezes by them all. They were all flattered by the proximity to him, not sure if it was lack or fitness or the concerning one, that he might not fully get the trip. He will be exposed on Sunday if the latter

DylanAFC

Ryan Moore left in the weighing room for the Arc. Bizarre.

Peintre Celebre

DylanAFC wrote: »

Ryan Moore left in the weighing room for the Arc. Bizarre.

He rides Tapestry according to RP