The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Schadenfreudia

syklops wrote: »

Its snowing where I am.

In Dublin?!

From here I can see all the way to Ballymun - not a cloud in the sky bar some very high stuff moving in from the west.

You must be either in Tallaght or in bed dreaming!

icesnowfrost

syklops wrote: »

Its snowing where I am.

Pictures for god sake

syklops

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Pictures for god sake

I'll give it a bit longer before I break out the camera.

In Dublin?!

From here I can see all the way to Ballymun - not a cloud in the sky bar some very high stuff moving in from the west.

You must be either in Tallaght or in bed dreaming!

I'm in the Carpathian mountains in Southern Poland. :pac:

Schadenfreudia

Look who posted that!

https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/689350/332701.gif

Gonzo

some patchy white frost here, about as close to a white christmas as were gonna get! still far better than mild wet muck on Christmas day!

Cosmo Kramer

Strange to see it so quiet here with a potential snow event less than 24 hours away. To what extent do Met Eireann operate on Christmas Day, might they be thinking of issuing a yellow weather warning at this point for Connacht, Ulster and North Leinster?

Storm 10

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Strange to see it so quiet here with a potential snow event less than 24 hours away. To what extent do Met Eireann operate on Christmas Day, might they be thinking of issuing a yellow weather warning at this point for Connacht, Ulster and North Leinster?

Well you know , Christmas drinks, dinner and a snooze I'm sure they will be in later

circadian

Small hail showers since last night in the northwest. Temps dropping but nothing sticking.

Kermit.de.frog

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Strange to see it so quiet here with a potential snow event less than 24 hours away. To what extent do Met Eireann operate on Christmas Day, might they be thinking of issuing a yellow weather warning at this point for Connacht, Ulster and North Leinster?

Could be a surprise for a lucky few.

Gonzo

The Uk met Office have issued a snow warning stretching from the southern counties of Northern ireland across to parts of northern England, central England and the northern parts of east Anglia, this area of snow also includes counties Louth, Meath, Monaghan, Cavan and parts of Dublin. They have stated that it is marginal with a 30% risk of lying snow across low ground and a much higher chance of up to 10cm in high ground locations.

My thoughts is that we will mostly see a sleety rainy mix with snow on the Mournes and Wicklow Mountains.

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

The Uk met Office have issued a snow warning stretching from the southern counties of Northern ireland across to parts of northern England, central England and the northern parts of east Anglia, this area of snow also includes counties Louth, Meath, Monaghan, Cavan and parts of Dublin. They have stated that it is marginal with a 30% risk of lying snow across low ground and a much higher chance of up to 10cm in high ground locations.

My thoughts is that we will mostly see a sleety rainy mix with snow on the Mournes and Wicklow Mountains.

Yep saw that, i'd be hoping to see some snow as i'm in north meath, but i wont believe it til i see it.

snaps

syklops wrote: »

I'll give it a bit longer before I break out the camera.



I'm in the Carpathian mountains in Southern Poland. :pac:

You cant be far from me then as we've had lots of snow today!

DOCARCH

Latest from ME...a little more wintry than earlier forecast:

On St. Stephen's Day, rain will extend to all areas during the morning and will turn heavy over Munster, Connacht and Leinster. The rain will turn to sleet or wet snow later in the morning and through the afternoon over parts of Connacht, south Ulster and north Leinster with the risk of snow falling on higher ground and perhaps at lower levels for a time also.

M.T. Cranium

Satellite imagery suggests that there's a fairly large dose of moisture coming along despite the weak and flabby appearance of this low on the 18-24 hour portion of the model runs this (afternoon). And the track just seems to be slipping ever further south. Upper temps are marginal but the warm advection won't be much of a factor north of the track which right now looks to be central Clare across north Tipp and Laois into south Wicklow.

With heaviest precip in the southeast arriving mid-afternoon and lasting to almost midnight, could see a dropping rain-snow line by elevation during the event.

Feel about 70% confident that parts of central and northern counties will get a covering from this, and most hills along and south of the track, but 40% chance that snow gets down low enough to leave a coating by end of the event on some but not all parts of the southeast. Not much snow likely in west Munster except on terrain that is higher than 250m.

Another and possibly better in some cases chance for snow later Saturday, partly because there is more of a northeast component for a time.

It seems possible that at the last minute the track will shift further and cold will refuse to be pushed off the surface anywhere inland from the south coast. In that case the northern edge of snow might be pulled a bit further into Ulster and north Leinster and the rain-snow dividing line could drop lower yet and closer to Cork and Waterford. This would be if the low tracks let's say across Kerry and south Cork then into south Wales after exiting near Dunvargan. That would seem to be about the limit of how much further this could shift south before the models run out of time to be wrong. But (think of date) were they ever wrong, where's the 960 mb low in the North Sea now? That was a bizarre collection of maps from about 21st that form a good illustration of how forecasting used to be in the bad old days.

mhiggy09

So is the chance of snow high for South cavan. Im at 100m so is chance of snow even higher?

elvis99

Slightly off topic I know, but TG4 are carrying a half hour documentary at 6.15pm this eve called "Bliain an tSneachta Mhoir" about the winter of 1947, might make for some interesting viewing.

Schadenfreudia

elvis99 wrote: »

Slightly off topic I know, but TG4 are carrying a half hour documentary at 6.15pm this eve called "Bliain an tSneachta Mhoir" about the winter of 1947, might make for some interesting viewing.

Great book on that by Kevin C Kearns called Ireland's Arctic Siege (The Big Freeze of 1947) (pub 2011).

Great read for a cold night by the fire.

Kermit.de.frog

ECM 12z gives a slightly better chance for some snow for a time tomorrow as the rain clears compared to the GFS. This will be a nowcast rather than a forecast. Very marginal between an event and non event.

Don't be surprised no matter where you reside if you see some flakes tomorrow.

Redsunset

Temps too high during main rain bulk. Northern belt of system and elevated areas have a good chance of seeing decent covering. Sleet/snow showers as it pulls away further south but looking very minimal precip by that stage. Good to watch though.

Pangea

elvis99 wrote: »

Slightly off topic I know,.

Hardly, Look at thread title Very on topic

Pangea

Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford and Westmeath
Heavy rain will turn to sleet and on higher ground to snow with the risk of snow on lower levels in the afternoon and evening.

Issued:Thursday 25 December 2014 18:00
Valid:Friday 26 December 2014 08:00 to Friday 26 December 2014 21:00

sunbabe08

i've lost count how many times i just heard cold in the weather forecast on rte

Pangea

Looks like Donegal might be too far north for the bulk of the precipitation tomorrow according to the precipitation forecast

red_bairn

sunbabe08 wrote:

i've lost count how many times i just heard cold in the weather forecast on rte

it must be getting (c)old..

Oscar Bravo

2140 update from met eireann

Cold and cloudy tonight with outbreaks of rain or sleet extending from the Atlantic.
Lowest temperatures around zero with frost in places.


Tomorrow

St Stephen's Day:
A mostly cloudy day with scattered outbreaks of rain, heavy in places. Some sleet or snow will occur also. There will be strong winds locally as well so visibility and driving conditions may be poor at times across the country. Temperatures will range from 3 to 10 degrees (highest in southern counties).

RED L4 0TH

Maybe Saturday might be a better chance for snow? Would be showers though, before high pressure dampens it all down later. Ok uppers and borderline DP's for 3pm Saturday according to the 18Z Euro4.

Pangea

anyone got one of those snow risks maps for tomorrow?

blackbird99

not much to see only rain

Schadenfreudia

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Weather Underground radar shows the warm front now stretching (1.30am) from Listowel to Cork City, lots of mixed precipitation along the leading edge away from the coasts - and snow falling on higher ground.

Should be snow falling in Abbeyfeale any minute!

icesnowfrost

a rise in temps since last nite. Went to bed with hard frost and ow it's melted.