The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

numilus cimbus

snaps wrote: »

+9? Who or where did you read that? I'm 60km south of Krakow and its -2 and snow. I'll post pics again later as the kids are hassling me to take them skiing/sledging!

Kraków airport was indeed +9c yesterday at peak see weather underground .com
You live up on a mountain don't you? A different story

Most of Poland this morning is above freezing

Slashermcguirk

A few friends who are in krakow and expected snow but none, I work with a couple of polish people too who said it hasn't been very cold for the time of year

davidsr20

Things very quiet here this morning. Downgrade again? Or still uncertain ?

Metmaster

Well......its gonna be a mild christmas unfortunaty.>:(

maquiladora

Metmaster wrote: »

Well......its gonna be a mild christmas unfortunaty.>:(

Mild?

Christmas Day (Thursday) : A cold, frosty start to Christmas morning and the day will be cold and crisp with sunny spells.
Most places will be dry with afternoon temperatures of 5 to 7 degrees C.. But temperatures will fall very quickly after dark and it will be very cold and frosty with fog patches developing also

icesnowfrost

A lot of the charts are going for a cold christmas day which is better than mild muck. plenty of frost maybe some snow on hills in the north
also the charts are all hinting at a low with savage wind around the 28th and super cold. MIGHT be some snow around the 29th. its still way into fi for me but its nice to see a lot of the charts coming together.

the GEM is an old flirt with cold lovers lol.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2968/gfs-1-180_ymo7.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3966/gfs-0-162_xyz7.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0

lubie76

icesnowfrost wrote: »

A lot of the charts are going for a cold christmas day which is better than mild muck. plenty of frost maybe some snow on hills in the north
also the charts are all hinting at a low with savage wind around the 28th and super cold. MIGHT be some snow around the 29th. its still way into fi for me but its nice to see a lot of the charts coming together.

the GEM is an old flirt with cold lovers lol.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2968/gfs-1-180_ymo7.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3966/gfs-0-162_xyz7.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0

Yeah, then there is still hope for my wedding in the Wesht on the 29th? Down with downgrades 😉

howlinwolf

met eireann starting to add next weekend into there outlook section, though it doesn't make very good reading for coldies, although it does hint at something after the windy/stormy period. A lot can change over the next few days to sway there opinion


.St Stephens Day: Becoming milder with south to southwest winds strengthening, bringing rain and drizzle into western and northern areas, drier in the east.

Weekend: Mild and windy with rain at times in all areas on Saturday and Saturday night but especially affecting western and northern parts. Turning colder during Sunday with the rain turning more showery with a cold signal for the following few days.

Villain

Yep not looking good for Ireland just on the wrong side of cold probably, the UK could see a cold blast though.

Baggy Trousers

Today was fairly miserable for the shortest day of the year. I could really do with some bright cold blue sky winter days.

M.T. Cranium

"I hate it when mommy and daddy fight at Christmas..." (and the teenagers are all yelling something too)

Guidance continues to be very inconclusive for the period 27th to 30th.

At this point, with more specific reference to Ireland, GFS and UKMO as well as JMA provide a faster onset of cold weather and with rather questionable reliability, a more robust shot of cold as well. The GME while somewhat similar on timing looks marginal for degree of cold in Ireland, and the ECM and more particularly the GEM develop the storm further west, hold it back longer and thus cold never really arrives except in highly modified form and on strong westerly winds (very strong if you believe the GEM).

The GFS operational is rather intense looking by late 27th and would pull in air just about cold enough for local blizzards to develop in Ulster and north Connacht. But read on, it is not that strongly supported even by its own ensembles.

The 20 GFS perturbations seem to divide into three camps. About five (only) give any real support to the deep North Sea low on 27th, the most intense is number 15. About five more seem to agree more with the ECM or even the GEM in terms of a slower moving low hanging back to the west. The rest would be less intense versions rather similar to the GME 132h. For that reason the GME has backed into a position of being the least offensive looking compromise of all available solutions.

I think the most likely outcome is going to be less intense than the worst case GFS and possibly a bit less intense than the UKMO, but would take the GME and intensify it by 10 mb. There will be a bit of everything in the mix, a spike in temps late 26th and early 27th near 8 or 9 C, then moderately strong westerly winds Sunday, a modified cold shot Sunday night into Monday, snow on higher terrain in the north, brief and transient snow in some lower areas too, and a somewhat messy return to milder westerlies. Blizzards, wind damage and storm surges are all possible (at least in Britain in the case of storm surges which might develop on some maps shown by the GFS) but I feel they will all be largely avoided by the actual outcome. It will be a rather close-run thing as they say however.

Ice and freezing fog on Christmas morning and again late evening into St Stephens Day (Boxing Day in UK) morning might be the highest impact weather event of the period despite all the isobars on display. Anyone planning on travelling at night between 10 p.m. 24th and sunrise 26th should factor in the possibility of slow travel due to slippery roads and poor visibility in places. It may be quite clear above or outside of the local banks of freezing fog, however.

We need to approach the period 27th-29th with the idea that almost anything could happen and any sort of model consensus could be at least two days away yet.

davidsr20

Nice one frosty nite out of this whole thing

derekon

davidsr20 wrote: »

Nice one frosty nite out of this whole thing

And the very valuable lesson that has been learned is basically that if Evelyn Cusack ain't saying snow, then it is very likely not going to happen. Met Eireann sticks to the reliable timeframe. Keep this at the front of your mind at all times and you won't go far wrong.

davidsr20

derekon wrote: »

And the very valuable lesson that has been learned is basically that if Evelyn Cusack ain't saying snow, then it is very likely not going to happen. Met Eireann sticks to the reliable timeframe. Keep this at the front of your mind at all times and you won't go far wrong.

I think from now on i will

Slashermcguirk

Sounds like at this stage a white Christmas is unlikely for Ireland and the uk, with the exception perhaps of the Scottish highlands. Same as most Christmases in fairness.

One thing with Irish weather though is weather can change so quickly. Haven't given up all hope just yet :-)

Macy0161

derekon wrote: »

And the very valuable lesson that has been learned is basically that if Evelyn Cusack ain't saying snow, then it is very likely not going to happen. Met Eireann sticks to the reliable timeframe. Keep this at the front of your mind at all times and you won't go far wrong.

After the 9 o'clock news, she didn't really go beyond Christmas Day night, did she? Was lots happening in the house at the time though, so might be wrong!

Oneiric 3

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

As for a white Christmas who cares if Arctic air comes south 3 days later. After all Christmas is far more than just one day and should really be taken as the week up to new year

Exactly what happened in 2000, just a couple of days after Christmas the snow came. Remember it looking very festive and of a much higher standard than anything we got back in 2010, and almost as cold.

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Exactly what happened in 2000, just a couple of days after Christmas the snow came. Remember it looking very festive and of a much higher standard than anything we got back in 2010, and almost as cold.

Impressive image. For some reason I have no real recollection of the 2000 snow whatsoever! Memory starting to fade.

On the 27th December a shallow polar depression crossed the north of the country, bringing outbreaks of snow, heavy in parts of the west and north. Snow showers were widespread in all but the southeast on the 28th, giving significant accumulation of snow in many places.
A depth of 19 cm was recorded at Knock Airport.

AnotherYear

I remember waking up at 6am and looking out the window expecting to see snow and nothing. Woke up at 8am and pure white out. Snow remained for about 5 days as I far as I remember, proper snow, no melting during the day. I remember my old cheap thermometer reading below -11. I was only 10 at the time ha

Harps

2000 was a great event here in Donegal, not up to 2010 standards for either snow depth or depth of cold but I do remember a prolonged period of heavy snow as opposed to the usual 10 minute showers. We had a similar spell in 1995 right after Christmas iirc

In fact thinking about it, a disproportionate number of major winter events seem to have happened around Christmas week in the past 20 years, major snowfall in 95, 00 and 09, one of the coldest weeks on record in 2010, severe storms in 97 and 98 and several storms and storm surges last year..

Oneiric 3

The 2000 event was fantastic. I remember the ground was very dry and hard with frost before the snow arrived, which I think made it for me as even the first few flakes that fell stuck. I recall watching the forecasts for days before hand anticipating the snow that was forecast. Only had the RTE & BBC TV & Radio forecasts back then . The snow arrived here in the early afternoon after a very sunny and dry morning. Once it started, it went on for a couple of hours at least with large amounts accumulating, which was topped up regularly thereafter by a regular procession of showers over the following few days.

I would put this event above the 2010 one. 2010 in terms of low temps was longer lasting and of slightly greater intensity here than 2000 but I don't recall it snowing as frequently or as heavy as it did a decade earlier. Can't speak for other parts of the country but snowfall itself was not all the frequent here in 2010. What fell, stuck, but by and large, it was mostly either sunny or freezing foggy during both cold spells in Nov & Dec.

M.T. Cranium

Could be a very interesting night and early morning here, the GME is first out and they have shifted the track south for the 26th-27th low, taking it inland across the north. This would mean that the northern counties, especially inland and at any elevation, would fail to get out of the cold air and any precip there could be either mixed or snow. It would change to rain in the south but the cold air is never very far away on their depiction.

Will comment on GFS when it's out in half an hour or so.

Tactical

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Guidance continues to be very inconclusive for the period 27th to 30th.


Anyone planning on travelling at night between 10 p.m. 24th and sunrise 26th should factor in the possibility of slow travel due to slippery roads and poor visibility in places. It may be quite clear above or outside of the local banks of freezing fog, however.

A word of caution folks, it has been my experience that the usually good folks in the NRA (National Roads Authority) do not undertake road gritting on Christmas day.

Last year it left the motorways and National Primary roads in a very, very poor condition indeed with considerable icing over the night of 25th.

The main problem with that course of action is that drivers were totally unaware that gritting had not taken place and seemed to be driving (until encountering a severe loss of directional control of their vehicle) under the not unreasonable assumption that gritting had been undertaken.

M.T. Cranium

It may be worse this year then, would hope they will be more proactive.

The GFS (both op and parallel runs) marches blindly onward with its rapidly developing low that heads far enough north to get everyone into the 8-10 C air mass briefly (26th evening) then slams much colder air into the north during the afternoon and evening of 27th, continues very cold 28th and part of 29th. Would be cold enough for accumulating snow (3-5 cm) in Connacht and Ulster except possibly right at sea level. Whether any of that gets into Leinster or Munster, probably not much but some passing flurries although heavier ones in west Munster. Lows of about -5 to -7 C possible with this scenario.

GEM seems to have caught up now and no longer keeps the low back further west for a day, still somewhat less intense than GFS with the Scotland portion of the track. UKMO looks very similar to the GFS op. If the ECM finally gives up on its two-day mild interlude and joins this party then it would be game on, since all of these models now depict some snow potential in north and west (most likely late 27th to mid-day 29th). That will be known by about 0645h. Going back in to see if GFS perturbations are available and how much of a spread they show.

M.T. Cranium

ECM has gone about three quarters of the way to agreeing with the GFS-UKMO scenario, it's certainly a lot faster now like the GEM, but also like the GEM it does not entirely phase in the coldest air available to the north. It still looks cold enough to snow at higher elevations but would be more of a mix at sea level to 150m which is where (according to my painstaking research) 90% of you live. Also slightly different is that the ECM drops the low south more than southeast and this would lead to a very cyclonic wind regime that would take this form -- SW on 26th, W on 27th to evening, NW then N and then finally NE on 28th. If the low were more intense this could be quite a storm over the Irish Sea, as things stand on the ECM at this point, let's say everything is marginal for gales, heavy snow or sub-freezing temperatures. Not non-existent though and some of the other models are definitely in the range. So I think we should probably go level one and highlight this period with a lot of caution. Thoughts? (the icy roads over Christmas nights could be a bigger deal anyway).

Villain

It's a little early to call anything beyond the 26th imo. An advisory for ice on Christmas Day might be an idea alright.

DOCARCH

Joanna Donnelly (of Met E) on the 07.55 forecast on RTE Radio 1, just said, after a cold and frosty Christmas Eve/Day/Night, no point going beyond that as the forecast is too uncertain.

numilus cimbus

Harps wrote: »

2000 was a great event here in Donegal, not up to 2010 standards for either snow depth or depth of cold but I do remember a prolonged period of heavy snow as opposed to the usual 10 minute showers. We had a similar spell in 1995 right after Christmas iirc

In fact thinking about it, a disproportionate number of major winter events seem to have happened around Christmas week in the past 20 years, major snowfall in 95, 00 and 09, one of the coldest weeks on record in 2010, severe storms in 97 and 98 and several storms and storm surges last year..

Agreed
I remember,it was short lived though,as the warm air flooded in after it to all bar the far north
We drove to Bundoran from Dublin to a party,leaving the city in plus 10 temps to arrive up in Bundoran still in the cold ice and snow
What a contrast

No comparison at all to 2010 for depth of snow though ,depth of cold or longevity
2010 is the master of cold spells and has spoiled us

Tabnabs

I feel it's only fair to warn you all, we've just bought a new toboggan for the kids as a Christmas present. The last time we did this - 2010.

We'll be practising our tobagganing skills on the sitting room floor until early January when I expect the real snow to arrive.

Happy Christmas all!

davidsr20

Tabnabs wrote: »

I feel it's only fair to warn you all, we've just bought a new toboggan for the kids as a Christmas present. The last time we did this - 2010.

We'll be practising our tobagganing skills on the sitting room floor until early January when I expect the real snow to arrive.

Happy Christmas all!

U seem to think it will arrive lol