The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

maquiladora

LordNorbury wrote: »

Doing the rounds on Facebook today:

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ireland-set-for-worst-winter-in-100-years-say-experts.html#

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Let me fix the headline : Ireland set for worst winter in 100 years says muppet that says the same thing every year because it sells tabloids and gives him advertising for his personal website where gullible people are encouraged to pay for his "forecasts"

gugsy

LordNorbury wrote: »

Doing the rounds on Facebook today:

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ireland-set-for-worst-winter-in-100-years-say-experts.html#

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Been doing the rounds for the last month. And every year previous at arond this time.

lapua20grain

LordNorbury wrote: »

Doing the rounds on Facebook today:

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ireland-set-for-worst-winter-in-100-years-say-experts.html#

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

James madman at it again

maquiladora

Highest Snow Advance Index this year since it began in 1999 :




The SAI is from a peer reviewed paper by Judah Cohen and Justin Jones that shows a correlation between the rate of advancing snowcover in Eurasia in October with the following winters arctic oscillation.

In very simplified terms, Cohan says :

When snow cover advances rapidly across Eurasia in October, this is an indication that the upcoming winter will be more severe for the Eastern US, Europe and East Asia.

http://www.aer.com/news-events/blog/snow-advance-index-new-tool-predicting-winter%E2%80%99s-severity

Along with the OPI, this year should be an interesting test for the SAI.

Joe Public

LordNorbury wrote: »

Doing the rounds on Facebook today:

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ireland-set-for-worst-winter-in-100-years-say-experts.html#

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

He's not the only one with the cold predictions so here are some more for the pot http://realityweather.net/winter-2014-2015-update-postman-says-heavy-snow-x-mas/

HighLine

It's funny how some long range "forecasts" are heavily ridiculed but others are seen as gospel on here. It would be great if all these long range "forecasts" could be confined to one thread so that people who believe in such things can waste their time reading there.

Larbre34

HighLine wrote: »

It's funny how some long range "forecasts" are heavily ridiculed but others are seen as gospel on here.

Not really. A cursory read of the tabloid versions show the peddlers predict snowmageddon on the back of one or two indicators, and that they roll out the same outlier rubbish year in, year out.

The forecasts that are respected on here are detailed in that all the source research is shown, the range of possible outcomes is shown based on historical instances and they are all heavily qualified as being subject to revision and development. They are prepared by pro/ams and don't rush to scare people or always tend to highlight the extremes.

Creative Juices

Larbre34 wrote: »

Not really. A cursory read of the tabloid versions show the peddlers predict snowmageddon on the back of one or two indicators, and that they roll out the same outlier rubbish year in, year out.

People are funny too because they forget that previous forecasts turned out to be complete rubbish like last year.

tylercollins

The Sperrins this morning...

maquiladora

HighLine wrote: »

It's funny how some long range "forecasts" are heavily ridiculed but others are seen as gospel on here. It would be great if all these long range "forecasts" could be confined to one thread so that people who believe in such things can waste their time reading there.

Some forecasts are from weather enthusiasts just having fun and/or testing out their theories. Madden and the like are just about churning out absolute horseshyte with the purpose of directing traffic to their own ad/premium supported websites to make money off peoples desire to see cold weather at the expensive of truth and reality.

force eleven

maquiladora wrote: »

There was no snow in November 2009, it was mild and exceptionally wet.

November 2010 was very cold, but December was even colder and the first half of January was cold too.

Bring your duck to the vet. :pac::P

Yes, running ahead of myself in 2009, it didn't start until Mid December - and the following year was the November snow.

And I have 4 ducks! They assure me the November folklore saying holds true...mostly...;)

HighLine

maquiladora wrote: »

Some forecasts are from weather enthusiasts just having fun and/or testing out their theories. Madden and the like are just about churning out absolute horseshyte with the purpose of directing traffic to their own ad/premium supported websites to make money off peoples desire to see cold weather at the expensive of truth and reality.

Yeah that's fair enough, I see your point in the distinction between the two however such theories should really be put in a theories thread and leave this for the short to medium term. Reading detailed "forecasts" in here on what the weather is going to be like come February/March is beyond ridiculous.

I guess I am on my own with respect to that viewpoint so I will just skip over such and enjoy reading the thoughts of some very knowledgeable posters on here who give great insight to the short/medium term trends.

Billcarson

force eleven wrote: »

Yes, running ahead of myself in 2009, it didn't start until Mid December - and the following year was the November snow.

And I have 4 ducks! They assure me the November folklore saying holds true...mostly...;)

The last day or two of Nov 2009 was cold/very cold though in anotherwise mild very wet month overall. I nearly recorded an ice day on nov 30th 2009.

ninebeanrows

Another interesting GFS run this evening.

Things are definitely looking positive as we move into November for a potential cold shot near the end of the month.

Tickityboo

maquiladora wrote: »

Some forecasts are from weather enthusiasts just having fun and/or testing out their theories. Madden and the like are just about churning out absolute horseshyte with the purpose of directing traffic to their own ad/premium supported websites to make money off peoples desire to see cold weather at the expensive of truth and reality.

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2014/11/03/forecasters-unable-to-predict-tomorrows-weather-giving-worst-winter-in-years/

Clonmel1000

HighLine wrote: »

Yeah that's fair enough, I see your point in the distinction between the two however such theories should really be put in a theories thread and leave this for the short to medium term. Reading detailed "forecasts" in here on what the weather is going to be like come February/March is beyond ridiculous.

I guess I am on my own with respect to that viewpoint so I will just skip over such and enjoy reading the thoughts of some very knowledgeable posters on here who give great insight to the short/medium term trends.

your definitely not on your own I would be in the same camp as you

Nabber

Ironic.... Winter is when this forum heats up.....

snaps

On an Eastern European note, Last year started off very warm and mild. This year its even warmer. This week its forecast to be in high teens and low 20s here in Poland. Its feeling quite strange after a cool and very frosty week last week. Nights were down to -7.
Scandinavia though, especially northern Finland has been extremely cold with snow since early October.
Not sure if there's anything it it but that's whats happening here!

kstand

Nabber wrote: »

Ironic.... Winter is when this forum heats up.....

I'm waiting for the first person that comes along to give their synopsis of what the future holds and uses the term "the building blocks are in place".

BLIZZARD7

Note serious lack of a Polar Vortex... Especially over Greenland~

+144HRS




+186hrs





Dan

leahyl

Blizzard what does this mean exactly?!

Reckless Abandonment

leahyl wrote: »

Blizzard what does this mean exactly?!

Snow for everyone, except Cork.

snowgal

I just took myself down memory lane and read through MT's 2010 November forecasts!! Just looking through it all, getting more intense as the days went on, was sooo exciting....ahhh to be in Nov 2010 again, not knowing what was about to hit us, classssss:D

HighLine

snowgal wrote: »

I just took myself down memory lane and read through MT's 2010 November forecasts!! Just looking through it all, getting more intense as the days went on, was sooo exciting....ahhh to be in Nov 2010 again, not knowing what was about to hit us, classssss:D

Had a look through the following December 2010 thread (yes, I was bored )recently... made for fairly epic reading. Over a million views and guys talking feet of snow rather than inches!

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056120994

leahyl

HighLine wrote: »

Had a look through the following December 2010 thread (yes, I was bored )recently... made for fairly epic reading. Over a million views and guys talking feet of snow rather than inches!

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056120994

OMG criiinge at some of my posts.... :pac:

Creative Juices

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Note serious lack of a Polar Vortex... Especially over Greenland~

Dan

Is a serious lack of a polar vortex good or bad for snow?

rickdangerouss

Creative Juices wrote: »

Is a serious lack of a polar vortex good or bad for snow?

It can be good for snow in Ireland, it's a piece of the pie, many things can help In the quest for snow.

But if all\some of these ingredients are missing, then no snow.

Reckless Abandonment

Creative Juices wrote: »

Is a serious lack of a polar vortex good or bad for snow?

Good, if the pv is strong it tends to keep the cold away from us and let the Atlantic keep us in a more "mild" pattern. When the pv is weak it can let colder air flow down from the pole easier, this doesn't guarantee cold or snow, the direction of the flow has to be right too. But as a snow lover I'll take a weak polar vortex any day.

Sparks

maquiladora wrote: »

Along with the OPI, this year should be an interesting test for the SAI.

What was the final OPI, out of interest, or did they not report that before the site went to it's "Give us a minute, we're doing the final numbers" page?

maquiladora

Creative Juices wrote: »

Is a serious lack of a polar vortex good or bad for snow?

In simple terms, a weak or displaced polar vortex results in higher than normal pressure taking its place, which can lead to this type of pattern :



Of course it's not as simple as all that, but we certainly get a better chance of cold spells when it happens.