superlevy 2015

frazzledhome

mahoney_j wrote: »

excellent point,We still dont know what septembers price was never mind current months.Hard to forward plan been always stuck a month behind.Its a point i meant to raise at last arrabawn board meeting,Note stuck in phone so wont forget next time!

So what would you do different if you knew price 30 days earlier

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

PRICE IS EVERYTHING !!!!!

Quote from elderly neighbor from many moons ago.

If your buying:)

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

If your buying:)

And selling.....

Timmaay

frazzledhome wrote: »

Absolutely spot on. Fortune spent on quota here adding 3c to my fixed costs. I'm recovering as much as I can by being collected on last day after pm milking

Hmmmmm but you said yourself that the bloody quotas have resulted in you having to hold back the cows this year? Surely it's in you favourite to milk the cows on that tiny bit more, and hold back the last 3days in March? Unless you are planning on coming in under quota?

keep going

5live wrote: »

Why should someone on or under quota stop sending their milk to facilitate someone who is gambling on there being no superlevy? I will be on quota on 31st March and have no intention, none whatever, of holding back milk.

how will sending in your milk improve your situation,not one bit unless there is a price drop and then i suggest you should be compenseted if there is .i myself have worked my way into a position im now happy with but i wouldnt begrudge any fella getting away with a bit more

frazzledhome

Timmaay wrote: »

Hmmmmm but you said yourself that the bloody quotas have resulted in you having to hold back the cows this year? Surely it's in you favourite to milk the cows on that tiny bit more, and hold back the last 3days in March? Unless you are planning on coming in under quota?

I never said such thing. You'll find I was talking in general regarding quota nationally. I never mentioned my cows once or anything of the sort. Big picture

frazzledhome

frazzledhome wrote: »

I never said such thing. You'll find I was talking in general regarding quota nationally. Big picture

Well here we are, best year of grass ever save a few exceptions, milk touching 40 with solids and we can't make the most of it, why? Quota.

We're caught in the worst possible position. A chance to build up a bit of a war chest to carry us through what's predicted to be a low price spring and we can't do it. This is the insanity of the quota system. It can only work if it offers some form of price protection. That's gone since 06 so we now have the worst of both worlds.

Quota is still here and price is falling, so I'll not be convinced that quota can in anyway help price. Quota needs to be removed tomorrow to prevent it doing any more damage

frazzledhome

Timmaay wrote: »

Hmmmmm but you said yourself that the bloody quotas have resulted in you having to hold back the cows this year? Surely it's in you favourite to milk the cows on that tiny bit more, and hold back the last 3days in March? Unless you are planning on coming in under quota?

I'll be on or within 1000 litres with no holding back. I've spent a lot making sure I've got quota, so will be sure to fill

5live

keep going wrote: »

how will sending in your milk improve your situation,not one bit unless there is a price drop and then i suggest you should be compenseted if there is .i myself have worked my way into a position im now happy with but i wouldnt begrudge any fella getting away with a bit more

Hahaha now i know you're pulling the pi$$.

I have loan repayments coming out of my account on 20th April. I have living expences for my family and farm expenses to pay on the same day. Will me keeping milk back for payment in MAY benefit me in April in any way, shape or form?

Will any of those benefiting from my proposed largesse send me on cash to compensate me for the benefit they receive?

Should i have ignored my quota and taken a gamble that, quite frankly, i could not afford to pay? Like those, as mentioned before, said 'Fcuk it, sure what harm, produce away, sure something will show up to pay the bills uf i fcuk up'?

Are you seriously telling me, who took heed of my quota, should compromise my business to bail out those who couldn't be ar$ed to take a prudent course?

Seriously?

keep going

5live wrote: »

Hahaha now i know you're pulling the pi$$.

I have loan repayments coming out of my account on 20th April. I have living expences for my family and farm expenses to pay on the same day. Will me keeping milk back for payment in MAY benefit me in April in any way, shape or form?

Will any of those benefiting from my proposed largesse send me on cash to compensate me for the benefit they receive?

Should i have ignored my quota and taken a gamble that, quite frankly, i could not afford to pay? Like those, as mentioned before, said 'Fcuk it, sure what harm, produce away, sure something will show up to pay the bills uf i fcuk up'?

Are you seriously telling me, who took heed of my quota, should compromise my business to bail out those who couldn't be ar$ed to take a prudent course?

Seriously?

if 3 days milk being paid a month later is going to have that much effect on your finances you are in big trouble,maybe you should have gone over a few more years and you wouldnt be in such a bad way.by the way you are talking to someone who is very prudent about superlevy.anyway partly guessed i would get this type of response

Timmaay

frazzledhome wrote: »

I'll be on or within 1000 litres with no holding back. I've spent a lot making sure I've got quota, so will be sure to fill

Well then my point still stands, if you were able to accurately predicted how closely to your quota you are going to supply, then why did you not decide to take advantage of a guaranteed 3days less time spend in "quota land" by holding over the milk, and say hang on to an extra cow etc? In my case I'm slightly over predicted monthly volumes now, and putting the foot slightly on the brake by drying off some low yielding ladies early alongside less nuts, however for me 3days of held over milk means I can basically get away with going an extra 4k over, not a bad bit of money!

frazzledhome

Timmaay wrote: »

Well then my point still stands, if you were able to accurately predicted how closely to your quota you are going to supply, then why did you not decide to take advantage of a guaranteed 3days less time spend in "quota land" by holding over the milk, and say hang on to an extra cow etc? In my case I'm slightly over predicted monthly volumes now, and putting the foot slightly on the brake by drying off some low yielding ladies early alongside less nuts, however for me 3days of held over milk means I can basically get away with going an extra 4k over, not a bad bit of money!

Tim I see what your saying but you have mis quoted me simple as that.

What you do is fine by me

frazzledhome

keep going wrote: »

if 3 days milk being paid a month later is going to have that much effect on your finances you are in big trouble,maybe you should have gone over a few more years and you wouldnt be in such a bad way.by the way you are talking to someone who is very prudent about superlevy.anyway partly guessed i would get this type of response

In fairness, who's going to pay him for the use of his quota?

You can't criticise a person for good quota management.

20silkcut

I can't for the life of me fathom that in 2014 people are being fined for producing too much milk and in 2015 all this extra milk is waiting in the wings to be produced.
Where is the sense in it??
It's hard to see it being anything only a disaster unless some sort of intervention market buys up the excess.
Surely something will have to take the place of quotas???
This is a bubble. There are massive beef and tillage farmers I know who are switching to dairy who have the means to milk 300 cows next year. It is the very same as the Irish property market c2006/07.
Like all bubbles it is the people who are borrowed most who will suffer when things go pop. But I can't help but feel that an industry is going to be destroyed unless some brakes are put on and someone shouts stop. This to me is extreme market capitalism this is maggie thatcher and is going to benefit no one only the people further up the food chain .

farmerjj

Silk cut....+1 (except thatcher part, to young for that:p)

mahoney_j

20silkcut wrote: »

I can't for the life of me fathom that in 2014 people are being fined for producing too much milk and in 2015 all this extra milk is waiting in the wings to be produced.
Where is the sense in it??
It's hard to see it being anything only a disaster unless some sort of intervention market buys up the excess.
Surely something will have to take the place of quotas???
This is a bubble. There are massive beef and tillage farmers I know who are switching to dairy who have the means to milk 300 cows next year. It is the very same as the Irish property market c2006/07.
Like all bubbles it is the people who are borrowed most who will suffer when things go pop. But I can't help but feel that an industry is going to be destroyed unless some brakes are put on and someone shouts stop. This to me is extreme market capitalism this is maggie thatcher and is going to benefit no one only the people further up the food chain .

There is a replacement of sorts for quota.It will be land and access to it to milk off it,A land block can only be stocked so high and a cow can only produce so much milk,Also many coops will require you to share up and match your supply to shares owned as well as limits as to what you can produce in peak months

20silkcut

mahoney_j wrote: »

There is a replacement of sorts for quota.It will be land and access to it to milk off it,A land block can only be stocked so high and a cow can only produce so much milk,Also many coops will require you to share up and match your supply to shares owned as well as limits as to what you can produce in peak months

That would make sense of course but it's not so much this country but the likes of Germany Denmark France etc they could really ramp up production in a post quota world.
It is without doubt that the market is saying in 2014 that it has enough milk even with the quota in place.
It scares me to think that an actuarial calculation made 7 or 8 years ago based on projected population and demands is dictating supply in 2015 when clearly such demands have not materialised.
I'm sure nobody has the balls or the desire or the political clout or will to row back on quota abolition at this stage but the reality is here we are in the year 2014 and we still need quotas there is too much milk. If it's like this at this time next year it will be the price that will be the super levy fine.

Timmaay

Sorry Silkcut, your off the mark there. The current oversupply is due to a mix in perfect conditions for milk production around the world, combined with one or 2 demand issues, like the Russian ban. The sort of ramp in production that the US is capable of is far more damaging than a ramp in EU production.

Ultimately, irrespective of what way the world market is going, all we can do here in Ireland is keep farm gate costs under most other suppliers, that way we are the last to go bust, and have one of the highest margins when the price is good. However if we are limited by quotas, in these good years we cannot go for it and produce the income cushion that is needed to ride out bad years.

Dawggone

20silkcut wrote: »

That would make sense of course but it's not so much this country but the likes of Germany Denmark France etc they could really ramp up production in a post quota world.
It is without doubt that the market is saying in 2014 that it has enough milk even with the quota in place.
It scares me to think that an actuarial calculation made 7 or 8 years ago based on projected population and demands is dictating supply in 2015 when clearly such demands have not materialised.
I'm sure nobody has the balls or the desire or the political clout or will to row back on quota abolition at this stage but the reality is here we are in the year 2014 and we still need quotas there is too much milk. If it's like this at this time next year it will be the price that will be the super levy fine.

Ballsy post there Silkcut!!
Grab a carton of fags and run for cover.
Btw I mostly agree with you. Quota abolition will suit the producers with the most raw material - land.

20silkcut

I hope timaay is right and I am wide of the mark. But all I can say is for most of the 35 years of my life dairy farming was a tough game with tighter than tight margins definitely when I think back to my fathers time back in the 80's.
The current era is a real golden period .
And now a seismic shift next April.

RightTurnClyde

Timmaay wrote: »

The sort of ramp in production that the US is capable of is far more damaging than a ramp in EU production.
.

With quotas gone could we see more "American type" sheds going up around Europe. Look at the likes of Dawg with all that cheap maize and protein. ???

frazzledhome

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

With quotas gone could we see more "American type" sheds going up around Europe. Look at the likes of Dawg with all that cheap maize and protein. ???

That's the rock people in Ireland will perish on. Happening here 3 indoor robotic systems under construction around me. Overstocked hi fixed cost systems. That's fine where cheap hi quality maize is available, not doable here maize too variable

RightTurnClyde

frazzledhome wrote: »

That's the rock people in Ireland will perish on. Happening here 3 indoor robotic systems under construction around me. Overstocked hi fixed cost systems. That's fine where cheap hi quality maize is available, not doable here maize too variable

No, i mean around the rest of Europe?

Dawggone

20silkcut wrote: »

I hope timaay is right and I am wide of the mark. But all I can say is for most of the 35 years of my life dairy farming was a tough game with tighter than tight margins definitely when I think back to my fathers time back in the 80's.
The current era is a real golden period .
And now a seismic shift next April.

Jeez Silkcut have you lost it completely???
Telling it as it is doesn't go down well around here.



Having said that my opinion is that there is no problem for the Irish farmers in ramping up production. Irish farmers are generally a go ahead lot that have built up a good base from the golden era of quota. A few catastrophic decisions were made by the government that favored the larger dairy farmer. Quota should NEVER have been made a personal asset. A permit to produce milk landed large figures on the good side of the balance sheet of the dairy farmer. Farms were bought on the strength of this. I could go on.....


For me the greatest handicap of the dairy industry are the Coops. They are not prepared for the opportunities to come. At this day and age to be lumping a premium (grass produced) product on the world market with all the other shyte is, to me, a lost cause.
Irish Coops are gladly allowing the farmers to pay for the expansion post quota.
A few smart businessmen would lead the charge on the market with their premium product. Instead they take the lazy and cautious approach and inform the world that Ireland can produce milk for almost nothing. Never focussing on the quality angle. It's just lazy business.
It's in our DNA - beef exported unprocessed and on the hoof, milk products dumped as commodities etc.

stanflt

frazzledhome wrote: »

That's the rock people in Ireland will perish on. Happening here 3 indoor robotic systems under construction around me. Overstocked hi fixed cost systems. That's fine where cheap hi quality maize is available, not doable here maize too variable

Not just the maize volitility but the bloody extra work load

I can honestly say that not having to feed cows from April to November will be the greatest achievement I have ever accomplished- the easier way of life and more family time has made farming so much easier and more enjoyable and profitable at a lower milk price

Cows are looking well and man and beast are in good form

I hade thought of running an indoor 130cow unit but so I need the work load and financial hassle for 5% margin when I can get 33% margin at 30cpl base


Only 10 cows calved so far and only calving in November and then mid jan will leave it easier over the winter also- now if only I had no April or May calvers I'd have a great system

It really does simplify dairying and takes the grind out of daily routine- just some of the benefits of what Teagasc were ramming down our throat ha but then what good did they do for us
Well maybe for those who listen

RightTurnClyde

Dawggone wrote: »

Jeez Silkcut have you lost it completely???
Telling it as it is doesn't go down well around here.



Having said that my opinion is that there is no problem for the Irish farmers in ramping up production. Irish farmers are generally a go ahead lot that have built up a good base from the golden era of quota. A few catastrophic decisions were made by the government that favored the larger dairy farmer. Quota should NEVER have been made a personal asset. A permit to produce milk landed large figures on the good side of the balance sheet of the dairy farmer. Farms were bought on the strength of this. I could go on.....


For me the greatest handicap of the dairy industry are the Coops. They are not prepared for the opportunities to come. At this day and age to be lumping a premium (grass produced) product on the world market with all the other shyte is, to me, a lost cause.
Irish Coops are gladly allowing the farmers to pay for the expansion post quota.
A few smart businessmen would lead the charge on the market with their premium product. Instead they take the lazy and cautious approach and inform the world that Ireland can produce milk for almost nothing. Never focussing on the quality angle. It's just lazy business.
It's in our DNA - beef exported unprocessed and on the hoof, milk products dumped as commodities etc.

A lot of milk going into baby powder...there's a premium product?
And there's Cashel Blue...doing cheese better than the French!!
Kerrygold...that's premium stuff there.

Dawggone

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

With quotas gone could we see more "American type" sheds going up around Europe. Look at the likes of Dawg with all that cheap maize and protein. ???

The Germans are going to go for it.
The French society are not ready for factory farming.....yet.
Conditions are ripe in my neck of the woods for men with vision and balls to go down the 1000's of cows route. The market is there as the local Coops are producing premium products and are willing to pay for milk. The farmers are too busy looking backwards. If I was 20 again...

RightTurnClyde

Dawggone wrote: »

The Germans are going to go for it.
The French society are not ready for factory farming.....yet.
Conditions are ripe in my neck of the woods for men with vision and balls to go down the 1000's of cows route. The market is there as the local Coops are producing premium products and are willing to pay for milk. The farmers are too busy looking backwards. If I was 20 again...

What's good land in big blocks making ( purchase price ) in Brittany or Vendee regions
Whats rent €50/acre???

Dawggone

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

A lot of milk going into baby powder...there's a premium product?
And there's Cashel Blue...doing cheese better than the French!!
Kerrygold...that's premium stuff there.

Kerrygold was invented and marketed many moons ago.
There are 400 plus million Europeans that have never heard of Cashel Blue cheese.
Did you ever wonder where Yoplait products come from? Why are they in the dairy section of Irish supermarkets?

The Irish Coops are a lazy bunch when it comes to marketing and branding.
Baby powder? Bit slow on that one. My Coop have done a JV with a Chinese company with an investment of over 300 million.

Dawggone

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

What's good land in big blocks making ( purchase price ) in Brittany or Vendee regions
Whats rent €50/acre???

North of the Loire land is way overpriced.
South of that river it's cheap ~ €2.5k to €4.5k per hectare.


Edit. Banks couldn't give a shyte about how many acres you own. It's all about EBIDTA, and rightly so.