Football ranking table

laoisman11

PREDfullPDF.pdf

Prediction model output for the 4 games this weekend attached:

• Not much to read into the recent form of Donegal or Tyrone, except that Donegal had been exceeding expectations based on their low start of year rating, but now have perhaps hit a plateau, and that Tyrnoe (with the exception of the Dublin result) appear to be quite consistent
• Westmeath have mixed the bad (losses to Sligo and Wicklow) with the good (league final) recently whereas Armagh have been playing at a different level - the question is probably Armagh's mental state after the Ulster final penalty loss. Previous games indicate that we can expect at least 2 goals in this one
• Nothing between Louth and Meath in terms of rating points, but a lot between them in terms of form - Meath have performed on average approx. 5 points less than expected in their last 4 games whereas Louth are on average approx. +3
• Roscommon have never beaten Dublin in the championship, and coming off 4 consecutive losses they are unlikely to be in form to overcome the significant rating gap between the sides

laoisman11

• Only Louth and Donegal picked up rating points last weekend, at the expense of Meath and Tyrone
• Donegal rise to 2nd, but Kerry and Galway are not far behind

laoisman11

PREDfullPDF.pdf

A massive 16 games on the cards for this weekend, there are sure to be many rank changes when all is done and dusted. I'm not going to comment on all the games, but these are the ones that stood out from looking at the in-depth prediction model output:

• Cavan's last win over Dublin (and that was NFL) was in 1960!
• Kildare have refound their mojo! They have overperformed in their last 2 games by more than 10 points than expected
• Two of the most erratic teams in the country, Fermanagh and Laois go head to head; this is a game that could go either way, by big margins!
• Monaghan's recent record is dismal (1 win from 11 games) whereas Louth have over-performed in each of their last 6 games
• Meath have underperformed in their last 6 games, while Kerry, surprisingly enough (to me at least), have underperformed in 7 of their last 8 games; however, Kerry's superior rating will safely bring them through
• Historically, there is very little between Derry and Armagh when they play, so a tight game could be expected
• Sligo have overperformed in their last 6 games
• Tipp have only 3 wins in their last 20 games

Tombo2001

Interesting prediction for Derry Armagh - comfortably the tie of the weekend in my view.

Monaghan Louth an interesting local derby - I wonder how many times those counties have played each other, given how close they are I cant ever remember a game between them.

colml cule

Seems there is little to be gained for the likes of Westmeath, Clare, Cavan, Meath etc playing in Sam Maguire against vastly superior teams. Westmeath in particular having already fallen behind a few tailteann teams, this looks likely to continue?

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122207332#Comment_122207332

There is nothing to be lost. They are all 4th Seeds for a reason, but are equally entitled as the other Seeds to get their three extra games after the provincial championships. There would be no "weak" teams for the others to beat, if everybody had to be at the same level to be allowed to compete.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122205402#Comment_122205402

Ladbrokes have 16/1 for a bet with Armagh ahead at half time and a draw at the end.

Louth have been in divisions below Monaghan and not progressing in recent years. When there was a North and South split in the league they played each more more.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122207332#Comment_122207332

Westmeath might get something from one of their games, they drew with Tyrone last year, and that would move them up the table.

CrabRevolution

When the tiers are very finely balanced (like in hurling) and teams regularly bounce up and down, we're told "it does nothing for these teams, they need to play superior teams all the time to improve, playing a lower level is demoralising etc.".

But when the upper tier is padded out a bit more so that more weaker teams play at the higher level (like in football), we're told "it does nothing for these teams, they gain nothing from playing superior teams all the time, playing at the higher level is demoralising etc."

laoisman11

Eleven of the 16 games from last weekened resulted in changes to the ranking table:

• Tipp's 1 point win over Wexford gained them a massive 5.7 rating points (if they had lost, they would have dropped to last place in the rankings, which would have been their worst ever placing - small margins and all that…)
• Cork picked up 5 rating points with an excellent win over Donegal
• 4.6 rating points for Waterford after a big win over Longford - Longford now sit in last position, where they have not been since 1978!
• Armagh's statement win over Derry brings them up to 3rd - Derry have dropped from 4th to 10th in a short period of time

Fr Tod Umptious

The great thing about this ranking system is that you can just look at the table and say "yea that's about right".

Donegal top 5, yeah that's about right.

Derry slipping to 9th, yeah that's about right.

Charles Babbage

The winners of Armagh and Galway will, briefly, be second in the country!!

dxhound2005

The neutral venue games should have some close contests based on the rankings.

Monaghan 14 v Meath 15. Cork 7 v Tyrone 8. Cavan 11 v Roscommon 12. Armagh 3 v Galway 4. Three of those are the Seed 3 v Seed 4 matches.

And some mismatches.

Donegal 5 v Clare 16. Derry 9 v Westmeath 20. Kerry 2 v Louth 10. The other match is Dublin 1 v Mayo 6. Three of those are Seeds 1 v 2.

tanko

Galway will hardly gain 3.5 points for beating a team ranked so close to them will they?

laoisman11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122227367#Comment_122227367

The closer teams are ranked, the more there is to gain for the favourite.

laoisman11

PREDfullPDF.pdf

I've changed computer since last week, and I'm not managing to get the PDF output to run exactly as before (I got it into html and then printed it as a PDF) so it's not the same quality. I've also had to remove New York from the advanced prediction output as they are constantly **** up my code somewhere…..

• Very little to differentiate Leitrim and Wicklow, this one could be very tight
• Tipp got their 2nd win of the year last weekend, but the difference in rating with Limerick suggests that it will be their last
• Antrim have a huge rating advantage over London and are sure to make it count at home

laoisman11

Minor changes at the bottom of the table after the 4 Tailteann Cup preliminary quarter-finals….

laoisman11

PREDfullPDF.pdf

Didn't get all the errors sorted out in the PDF file, but getting there….

Main points for the last bumper weekend:

• Derry's downturn in form is very evident but the model is giving them to win pretty comfortably
• Absolutely nothing between Roscommon and Cavan in terms of rating points although Roscommon have only 1 win (vs Monaghan) in their last 12 games (compared to 4 for Cavan, vs Kildare, Cork, Louth and Monaghan)
• Of their 13 ever meetings (11 in league, 2 in the championship), Clare have only won once and that was in 1983. Given the rating difference, Donegal look set for victory
• Little betwen Cork and Tyrone either, this could be very close
• Fermanagh's inconsistency continues, while Antrim are on a good run, with a record of 1 loss, 1 draw and 4 wins over their last 6 games
• Limerick are coming off 3 solid wins, albeit against poor opposition; the game with Sligo might be a stretch too far though
• With only 7 ever previous meetings, and at 0 from 1 in the championship vs Wicklow, Down will be looking ahead to a semi-final, but they won't have it all their own way
• The 2nd biggest rating gap of the weekend in the Laois-Kildare game, and Laois have not had a championship win over Kildare in 5 attempts since 2005. Hard to see that changing…..
• Hard to imagine Dublin not being able to handle all the Mayo can throw at them
• Another very evenly matched game between Meath and Monaghan, who between them, have won 4 of their last 22 games. Monaghan's form does look slightly better though, in their 2nd ever championship meeting
• Eight previous league and championship meetings between Kerry and Louth and the record is 4:4; Kerry are operating a different level though and should account for Louth relatively comfortably
• Connacht champions meet the almost Ulster champions….very little between them and history points to another close game

colml cule

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122207811#Comment_122207811

This is true, and I am not necessarily saying this it as a bad thing. All counties would rather be competing in Sam than not. There of course has to be strong teams and weak teams, as is the nature of sport.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122213875#Comment_122213875

I agree with this also, and I would be of the opinion that weaker teams need to be playing teams stronger than them in order to improve.

My point about Westmeath is just specifically in regard to these rankings. If they were in the tailteann they would most likely be winning games and gaining ranking points, but alas there are no points to be gained for playing at a higher level and losing.