SPRING WEATHER 2014

Billcarson

Low pressure close by during the coming weekend,so a probably fairly unsettled last weekend of April with bands of rain or showers about.

Gonzo

next week is looking very cold, with the possibility of our first artic plunge since Spring 2013, could lead to some wintry showers on hills?

D.Campbell

Billcarson wrote: »

Low pressure close by during the coming weekend,so a probably fairly unsettled last weekend of April with bands of rain or showers about.

Saturdayin Cork whats the download please is it rain

Red Nissan

D.Campbell wrote: »

Saturdayin Cork whats the download please is it rain

15mm of precipitation expected at this time, widespread soft to moderate rain from early morning throughout the day and fading away during the night.

Larbre34

A very poor outlook from MT this morning for the lead in to the beginning of May, mostly unsettled and temps well below normal. The UK Met are going with this too, and forecast cool or cold and damp conditions up to May 8th with a likelihood of it settling down after that, although still cool away from the South of England which sounds like pressure building from the north.

So, the silver lining, no more dust on your car, excellent air quality and good star gazing weather!

expectationlost

where did the mist appear from in north dublin,..... gone again hmm

M.T. Cranium

Rainfall from late Friday to early Sunday could reach 30-40 mm in some parts of the inland south and west. At this point I would rather not disrupt this thread with a level one separate thread but it is in that sort of grey area between average weather event and level one, so we may see a thread starting up from somebody else. Rather strong southeast winds likely on the south coast around midnight to 0600h (early Saturday) possible peak gusts of 100 km/hr. Further north into more populated areas, peak gusts 70-90 km/hr. Once again, not enough to justify a separate thread but worth noting if you have travel plans for late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Looks like all those missing easterlies from winter 2013-14 have decided to show up now. It's a bit too mild now for any snow except perhaps near the highest summits in Kerry. But later next week that snow line may come down to around 500 metres which would put a touch of snow on almost all significant hills around the country.

patneve2

Monday and Tuesday look warm

M.T. Cranium

Yes, the models are delaying and weakening the cold spell, and it may only be cold for about 2-3 days later next week.

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Rainfall from late Friday to early Sunday could reach 30-40 mm in some parts of the inland south and west. At this point I would rather not disrupt this thread with a level one separate thread but it is in that sort of grey area between average weather event and level one, so we may see a thread starting up from somebody else. Rather strong southeast winds likely on the south coast around midnight to 0600h (early Saturday) possible peak gusts of 100 km/hr. Further north into more populated areas, peak gusts 70-90 km/hr. Once again, not enough to justify a separate thread but worth noting if you have travel plans for late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Looks like all those missing easterlies from winter 2013-14 have decided to show up now. It's a bit too mild now for any snow except perhaps near the highest summits in Kerry. But later next week that snow line mropay come down to around 500 metres which would put a touch of snow on almost all significant hills around the country.

thought i had the date wrong reading this....snow!

hearing from family in bc canada re the earthquake puts it in proportion.

Oscar Bravo

A nice Gust of 50kts at Valentia on the 2000 reports.followed by Sherkin at 49kts.

Oscar Bravo

Nice tight gradient off the South coast in the coming hours

Aimsir

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Nice tight gradient off the South coast in the coming hours

pretty windy hete now cork city south

Oscar Bravo

cheers Aimsir, I see an inbound flight to Cork has just diverted to Shannon.

Oscar Bravo

56kts now at Valentia.

Graces7

wild, wild and loud here in south kerry

Aimsir

getting worse here in cork

Oscar Bravo

Some very strong winds will just miss our south coast tonight

Oscar Bravo

51kts at Kinsale. 2200 reports.

sunbabe08

ahhhh this weather is grand listening to the rain pelting off the window, it's been a while. just waiting for some thunder and lightening.

Red Nissan

Over turned van, father and child trapped, flash floods, closing many roads including the tunnel [Jack Lynch] record rain rate of 46mm/hr, Sun Valley Drive burst mains manhole cover blown in the air.

Airport [strangely] operating normally, no major gusts, Douglas holding out, major culverts seemingly doing their job.

I have 24mm rain since 18:00. [today 25th]

Oscar Bravo

46kts mace head,45kts roaches point and cork airport....2300 reports.

Graces7

dreadful night and debris everywhere now. winter is back. bitter cold and strong winds; south kerry.

Video

The dragon attacking ireland last night ....

Graces7

my feral cat came home so knew the weather was calming. he is a true gypsy and does not trust bricks and mortar in bad weather so i always know when we are in for a storm...

John.Icy

Absolutely stunning GFS 12z eye candy once we get the next couple of days out of the way with.

If it came off though it'd be a real worry it'd be our Summer. High pressure sinking from the North and building over us around the 2nd of May and by the 13th of May it's only strengthening further! Let's hope in the small chance it did come off per the GFS 12z way that it wouldn't spoil our Summer.

We've already been spoiled with a couple of lovely days over the last while so here's hoping we don't use up our Sun quota before June.

hurtle

John.Icy wrote: »

Absolutely stunning GFS 12z eye candy once we get the next couple of days out of the way with.

If it came off though it'd be a real worry it'd be our Summer. High pressure sinking from the North and building over us around the 2nd of May and by the 13th of May it's only strengthening further! Let's hope in the small chance it did come off per the GFS 12z way that it wouldn't spoil our Summer.

We've already been spoiled with a couple of lovely days over the last while so here's hoping we don't use up our Sun quota before June.

Hey guys. I always check here for the weather but have never posted. What I want to ask (because I hear people say it constantly!) is if there's any actual meteorological basis for saying 'this is our summer' if there's nice weather early on, or if it's just people being pessimistic?

My gut feeling is that the answer is no, seeing as though it seems to be difficult to know what the weather will be like tomorrow, never mind in July or August!

Red Nissan

hurtle wrote: »

My gut feeling is that the answer is no, !

I'll site our very recent explosive and short Spring, last week to be precise. Add that to the charts and I'd say we've had our summer. Add in also the quietest tornado season in 100 years and last year's almost non existent North Atlantic Hurricane season and we have all the ingredients to speculate that the broader summer period will be poor, or poorer.

M.T. Cranium

I suppose the theory about early warmth killing off summer hopes is based on a combination of analogues where this happened, and the idea that there can only be so many warm spells so if you use one up in May that takes away a chance later.

Let's see how this works in practical terms. First to the analogues, 2008 had some very fine weather in the first half of May. Not that great a summer. Late May and early June 2009 had summery weather, then it was not so great until maybe September. April 2011 was very warm, rest of that summer average at best. So recently, the concept seems to work out.

Looking at a longer period, I need to use the UK stats because I don't have enough data handy. Some of the warmer Mays had no really good weather in the following summer, but others such as 1868 and 1947 had some good or even excellent spells. It looks about random for correlation overall but you can conclude that a warm May is no guarantee of any particular summer outcome. It might depend on whether the warmth came from east or south. FWIW, my own summer outlook (in the planning stages) shows a fairly average summer to mid-August then warmer than average late in the summer period. And the model was showing this warmth in May so that adds some confidence. I feel fairly confident that warmth will fade for a while and won't just continue through June, but it may return a couple of times rather than boycotting the summer altogether.

maquiladora

Got to love FI on the ECM this morning.