Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

gugsy

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

Ok thanks. I spoke with a neighbour and he had heard it was going to be windy but met eireann arent really saying much about it. The tree surgeon cant get to me until Friday but he said he hadnt heard of any big wind event... I spoke to hm ten minutes ago. So I hoping that we will be spared wind on Wednesday night. I could get another crew in tomorrow but they way more expensive and I cant risk using the Christmas money on the seemingly small chance of strong winds. Dreading the next 48 hours

Everyone here is looking at charts from different website 24hrs a day. This storm or big wind event has been predicted since last week and it will hit, how severe is yet to be determined. Winds will be gale force 7-9 to violent storm force 11 with damaging gusts. Just because you didnt hear it doesnt mean its not going to happen. Met eireann are not great at warning people up untill the last 24 hours, you have 72, last weekend for instance we were all taking about the event on sat saying it was going to be big, it was with damaging with gusts up to 120kmh met eireann only warned of gust up to 110 kmh that sat morning There yellow statues was update to orange half way through sat to late if you ask me. So because lads didnt hear it, means the radio and met eireann have not broadcasted it yet. Your hearing it now here, so the question you need to ask yourself is which will cost you more a new garage or the more expensive lads. No one here (or maybe a small few) are professional meteorologists. But we have experience in reading charts.

ninebeanrows

This definitely has the chance of being a lot more severe than Saturday which was a classic pre frontal tightening of the gradient.

This could be a classic sting jet into parts of west with real power.

Two different beasts in my opinion. This could be a serious storm.

ninebeanrows

Nice image of what the ECMWF Op run perceives the satellite to look like @ T48hrs

compsys

gugsy wrote: »

Everyone here is looking at charts from different website 24hrs a day. This storm or big wind event has been predicted since last week and it will hit, how severe is yet to be determined. Winds will be gale force 7-9 to violent storm force 11 with damaging gusts. Just because you didnt hear it doesnt mean its not going to happen. Met eireann are not great at warning people up untill the last 24 hours, you have 72, last weekend for instance we were all taking about the event on sat saying it was going to be big, it was with damaging with gusts up to 120kmh met eireann only warned of gust up to 110 kmh that sat morning There yellow statues was update to orange half way through sat to late if you ask me. So because lads didnt hear it, means the radio and met eireann have not broadcasted it yet. Your hearing it now here, so the question you need to ask yourself is which will cost you more a new garage or the more expensive lads. No one here (or maybe a small few) are professional meteorologists. But we have experience in reading charts.

I think you're being overly critical on Met E. People here can waffle on about the weather and sh*te on about whatever they want. As much we might like to think otherwise, very few people listen to what anyone on here is saying.

Met E is the NATIONAL weather forecaster. Anything they forecast can be picked up by the entire national media. They need to be extremely certain about an extreme weather event before they start issuing amber alerts and putting the fear of God into people.

If I'd a euro for every time the consensus on here has been totally wrong about an upcoming weather 'event' then I'd be a millionaire.

The people on here who forecast and read the charts mainly do so for fun and as a hobby. Some are very good at what they do. Some not so good. Big weather 'events' are often incorrectly forecast and hyped up on here - sometimes they're not. However, whenever someone on here gets it wrong, no-one really cares or notices.

Met E don't have that luxury. They're the national forecaster and half the media and the public always seems ready to criticize them for any incorrect forecast. Consequently they need to be pretty certain about a big event before they call it. As a result, I think they're right not to be issuing any major alerts just yet.

snowstorm2013

gugsy wrote: »

Everyone here is looking at charts from different website 24hrs a day. This storm or big wind event has been predicted since last week and it will hit, how severe is yet to be determined. Winds will be gale force 7-9 to violent storm force 11 with damaging gusts. Just because you didnt hear it doesnt mean its not going to happen. Met eireann are not great at warning people up untill the last 24 hours, you have 72, last weekend for instance we were all taking about the event on sat saying it was going to be big, it was with damaging with gusts up to 120kmh met eireann only warned of gust up to 110 kmh that sat morning There yellow statues was update to orange half way through sat to late if you ask me. So because lads didnt hear it, means the radio and met eireann have not broadcasted it yet. Your hearing it now here, so the question you need to ask yourself is which will cost you more a new garage or the more expensive lads. No one here (or maybe a small few) are professional meteorologists. But we have experience in reading charts.

That told me ha ha. I going to take this storm seriously and have the lads by booked for 10 am tomorrow. Thanks for the advice lads.

Weathering

From Netweather

From Ryan Maue's Twitter.

"UK news hyping Wed-Thurs storm yet? Sustained hurricane force winds look likely."

ninebeanrows

Hard to make any real judgement from the ECMWF postage stamps as I can only see the 48 and 72hr charts.

Save to say that 95% predict a severe depression coming near Ireland, the uncertainty is the 100-150 miles range in where the tightest gradient will be remains.

gugsy

compsys wrote: »

I think you're being overly critical on Met E. People here can waffle on about the weather and sh*te on about whatever they want. As much we might like to think otherwise, very few people listen to what anyone on here is saying.

Met E is the NATIONAL weather forecaster. Anything they forecast can be picked up by the entire national media. They need to be extremely certain about an extreme weather event before they start issuing amber alerts and putting the fear of God into people.

If I'd a euro for every time the consensus on here has been totally wrong about an upcoming weather 'event' then I'd be a millionaire.

The people on here who forecast and read the charts mainly do so for fun and as a hobby. Some are very good at what they do. Some not so good. Big weather 'events' are often incorrectly forecast and hyped up - sometimes they're not.

Met E don't have that luxury.They need to be pretty certain about a big event before they call it. As a result, I think they're right not to be issuing any major alerts just yet.

Look the man is looking for advice i just gave him some. I posted about last week which was very true. The waffling here is fun but its also correct at the time models are run, no one can control the weather including models and if a model tells you it will be windy you sort of believe it, thats the same for meteorologists. Sometimes its wrong and the event can miss us or change. It doesnt mean that it couldnt have happened. I just wanted to warn snowstorm2013 because if i was living in sligo id be getting the tree cut. Sorry if i came across over critical to met e i was just disappionted in the late warning they gave last weekend. Sorry if i offended anyone

Redsunset

Sorry for the large image.


Here is Ecm at 57 hours. This is potentially very dangerous. As already stated by folks on here just take the necessary precautions.

M.T. Cranium

RGEM (only available on site) holds to previous GEM track and shows 957 mb at 18z Wed approx 57N 14W ... low is off map grid but label is barely inside the borders. ... so I am going by the usual geometry of numbers and location. Anyway it looks to me like RGEM is not varying from earlier GEM runs at this hour.

I don't blame Met E for not saying too much yet, the spread of guidance is fairly large and not many people can do much to prepare today or even Tuesday for the most likely outcome which is borderline damaging gusts. That Christmas Day apocalypse has faded out for the time being.

maquiladora

18Z GFS is rolling out and is a bit more intense than the 12Z by 39 hours. Let's see where it takes it.

gugsy

All western coastlines looking most at risk

ninebeanrows

18z GFS looking worrying

Gradient pulls north quite quickly, but still dangerous for parts of west/northwest.

Lots more runs to go!

Iancar29

965 hp at +42 hrs ! :O

18z going like some of the dangerous 12z ensembles!

Oscar Bravo

now I must remember to get batteries for the torch tomorrow!

ninebeanrows

Iancar29 wrote: »

965 hp at +42 hrs ! :O

18z going like some of the dangerous 12z ensembles!

The centre of the low migrates north quite suddenly, so not quite as bad as first appeared at T42hrs but still a potentially damaging system.

Redsunset

At 51 hours it looks nasty

Iancar29

Weathercheck wrote: »

The centre of the low migrates north quite suddenly, so not quite as bad as first appeared at T42hrs but still a potentially damaging system.

Certainly looks to do a handbrake turn alright! , Darn you Rapid cyclogenesis!!! lol

ninebeanrows

Redsunset wrote: »

At 51 hours it looks nasty

It is certainly nasty, but not quite the Armageddons that some 12z Ensembles showed.

maquiladora

18Z GFS ends up being a slight downgrade in terms of severe winds. Each run since the 0Z has downgraded the winds a little each time, perhaps it is a trend and not just variance, we've certainly seen that pattern before.

Still different from the ECM and UKMO though, so I don't think we're still any nearer to knowing what form it will actually take. Hope the new 0Z's clear things up.

Oneiric 3

Latest Hirlam. Potential for NW coasts still there. Tomorrow night's system actually looks more potent for the rest of us than this one.


Of course, could upgrade again in later runs.

gugsy

and 24 hrs

Harps

Looks like a fairly typical winter storm from a quick scan through the thread, a notable storm probably for the north and west cost but certainly nothing they're not accustomed to at this time of year. Interesting to see how it develops with so many solutions still on the table

mike2084

Christmas looks jinxed this year, first it was ESB strikes now hurricanes :-)

Iancar29

mike2084 wrote: »

Christmas looks jinxed this year, first it was ESB strikes now hurricanes extratropical system . :-)

eskimocat

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

Saw her forecast on rte+1 and she mentioned gusts well in excess of 100kmph so I gonna get the other guys in tomorrow. Not taking the chance.

Prob for the best. I had a tree due to be brought down recently too, however the bit of wind that managed to make its way into Leitrim one Sunday afternoon took care of it by knocking it. No damage thankfully, but the wind wasn't near as strong as what was forecast in this run.

maquiladora

Whatever happens Wednesday night, it looks like that won't be the last low we'll be watching before Christmas.

ninebeanrows

Still many severe GFS Ensembles this evening, large consensus now for a significant storm.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Still many severe GFS Ensembles this evening, large consensus now for a significant storm.

Had a quick scan and I don't think even a single one of them looked like the UKMO at 48 hours. Strange to see such a gap between two of the leading models at such a short range.

keith16

maquiladora wrote: »

Whatever happens Wednesday night, it looks like that won't be the last low we'll be watching before Christmas.

Weathercheck wrote: »

Still many severe GFS Ensembles this evening, large consensus now for a significant storm.

Thanks for the ongoing inputs lads, great stuff. Any thoughts on how it's looking to track or if it's going to intensify once it heads east past Ireland?