Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

tylercollins

Look at this for Christmas Day! Size of Europe. Boxing 98 repeat?

maquiladora

As it stands, the 06Z GFS shows part of the west coast getting brushed with 60-65mph sustained winds (around 100 km/h). Since the Met Eireann criteria for a red warning is sustained 80 km/h winds, if that did come off we'd probably see a red warning for limited coastal areas there. It could easily continue to downgrade further though, as another track shift north would remove the severe wind potential for the west coast.

TheDoctor

In a nutshell without me having to scroll through graphs, what does the next week or so forecast look like?

km79

TheDoctor wrote: »

In a nutshell without me having to scroll through graphs, what does the next week or so forecast look like?

Windy !

Tactical

TheDoctor wrote: »

In a nutshell without me having to scroll through graphs, what does the next week or so forecast look like?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=88042206#post88042206

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Weathering

Should should this thread revert back to level 2 for the West coast and North/North West?

ninebeanrows

Latest NAE would still give the Northwest a serious hit for a brief time.

Still definitely a level 2 for these regions.

Still likelihood of sustained storm force in this region with gusts to 70/75kts

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

I wouldn't say that, up until last night the UKMO was just showing an open wave, its only very recently caught up with the other models in showing a developed low. What has changed this morning is there is now agreement on a more northerly track on the models, so only northwest coasts get a brush of severe winds. A slightly weaker version of recent GEM/ECM runs were probably the closest to the mark.

I stand corrected!

maquiladora

12Z NAE has shifted the low further south again. Upgrades the sustained winds for the west/northwest coasts by about 15mph.

06Z :


12Z :


Is another track shift south possible on the 18Z? You never know.

Weathering

GFS rolling out lets hope for the best

ninebeanrows

While the NAE is further south, the 12z GFS is even further north compared to its 6z!

maquiladora

12Z GFS tracks a bit more north, downgrades the winds even further.



Peak winds about 15mph weaker than the 06Z.

Weathering

NAE or GFS. Which do you feel is closer to the mark?

Iancar29

Hmmm who edited back to a level 2? ... I think the GFS will be more in line .

Was fun getting excited at the ensembles though.

ninebeanrows

GME more in line with NAE, Storm force into northwest.


Level 2 is warranted for the northwest.

ninebeanrows

GME would place some violent winds for the north coast tomorrow night.

pauldry

Winds of 70 to 80kts prob tomorrow night though prob shortlived

Id say belmullet 77
Finner 70
Malin 80

Everyone else around 55 or less

pauldry

Snow after that too very likely away from coasts but that short-lived too

ninebeanrows

The much respected NAVGEM going for something a little more widespread..

ninebeanrows

Whatever the case, little support for the GFS so far this evening. So the storm is likely to be closer to the northwest coast than that progs anyway.

ninebeanrows

UKM global, going for a more southerly approach than the GFS, as expected after seeing the hi res NAE.

maquiladora

GFS throws up a monster 926mb low to our northwest on Christmas Eve. Shift that a couple of hundred miles southeast and Santa Claus is not coming to town.



3 days later, a 946mb low in Donegal Bay. Something along the lines of Jan 1991.

ninebeanrows

It is a rather confusing state of affairs this evening. If anything the mean consensus is the storm is more of a threat that shown this morning. But then we have two GFS downgrades which go against the trend in the other models.]

This ones is going right down to the wire.

Tactical

Weathercheck wrote: »

This ones is going right down to the wire.

Which makes for an interesting 24 hours or so ahead of us

maquiladora

JMA is a bit further south than the GFS too. 12Z GFS op may have went a little too far north.



On the other hand, the 12Z GEM is similar to the GFS.

dopolahpec

GFS from Christmas Eve onwards is one of the stormiest model runs I've ever seen for Ireland.

maquiladora

At least one ensemble member wants to give 1839 a run for it's money.

ninebeanrows

Hard to know where the ECMWF would fit in, other than it is definitely further south than the GFS and looks rather Dangerous for the northwest IMO.

Real risk of Hurricane force wind gusts for the northwest tomorrow.

Others can form other opinions.

howlinwolf

I know this storm is only starting to form but can anyone give me some good sites for tracking its progression as it nears Ireland...thanks

JanuarySnowstor

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Still time for upgrades the usual trend is 3 or 4 downgrades and then maybe an upgrade before it hits.
Am gonna go with middle station here and expect the 12's to move back towards a more direct hit but less severe than what seemed likely 2 days ago. Damage for the nw is my punt

Well the above has indeed happened and the storm is now quite a threat to the North and Northwest.
A line from Galway to Dublin North could see structural damage
As for us Southerners still a chance it will upgrade in the over night runs

Hill snow looks likely too, particularly for the North and West though not exclusivly so.

A regards the Christmas period, all still to play for
Certainly not mild!