WC 2014 Brasil; Starts June 12th 2014

DB74

Bateman wrote: »

That market will probably end in a dead heat, what would the rules be there?

Without trying to be smart, it'll probably be settled as a dead heat.

eg - if 2 teams are tied then half your stake wins and half your stake loses, if 3 teams are tied then 1/3rd of your stake wins and 2/3rds of your stake loses etc

discombobulate

DB74 wrote: »

Without trying to be smart, it'll probably be settled as a dead heat.

Didn't do a good job of not trying to be smart....

Odds you get would be halved if a dead heat between 2, odds cut in 3 if a dead heat between 3 etc.

Edit: Your revised post is a bit more helpful

tomaussie

discombobulate wrote: »

Didn't do a good job of not trying to be smart....

Odds you get would be halved if a dead heat between 2, odds cut in 3 if a dead heat between 3 etc.

Edit: Your revised post is a bit more helpful

I'm pretty sure it's your stake that gets halved or quartered and so on. The odds don't change.

discombobulate

tomaussie wrote: »

I'm pretty sure it's your stake that gets halved or quartered and so on. The odds don't change.

Yup your correct. My bad.

tomaussie

Winners - Argentina at 5/1.


Mexico to qualify from group A
Chile to qualify from group B
Columbia to win group C
France to win group E

Accum pays about 12/1

Top goalscorer Higuain at 22/1 and Aguero at 16/1.

Both also doubled with Argentina to win at 40/1 each.

As you can see Argentina will make or break the World Cup for me. Weak group so they should score plenty and if they are to go on and win then it will be one of the front 3 that I think will get the Golden boot.

If I could only have one bet I think Higuain is likely to score the most so I'd have him with Argentina at 40/1.

I'm going to have a bet in Group H also. I don't fancy Belgium to perform as most people expect so I'll be doing a straight forecast with Russia and South Korea or reversing it. You can get 20/1 Russia - South Korea or 28/1 South Korea - Russia.

BearBanjer

Hey all, first time poster.

Some interesting bets here. Higuain is great value at 22/1.

Initially, I've gone for Fred for top scorer at 20/1 (Bet365). Very much favoured by Scolari and has a great record in Brazil.

diomed

My first comment is I bet on Betfair as prices on outsiders can be much greater.

Goalscorer market:
This market can fluctuate a lot. My tip is to wait until a few games have been played. Someone must score and the prices will gyrate wildly.
Do your research and ignore the obvious e.g. Messi, Naymar, Rooney.
An example from 2010: Suarez was one of my players "on watch". He was largely unknown. He didn't score in Uruguay's first game and his price went to 630. I had a bet. He scored two in Uruguay's second game, his price dropped, and I laid for a profit.
I have one player "on watch" and might post him here when I get a bet on at ridiculous odds.

Outright winner:
Ghana at 260/1. They are in a tough group with Germany, Portugal, USA. But Ghana are a team that imo helps make the group tough.
Germany V Portugal on the first day is at 13:00 local time in a hot and humid location. If Ghana can beat USA at 19:00 local later that day, a win in the Germany V Portugal match should see Ghana's odds plummet.
The second group match for both is Germany V Ghana, 5 days later at 16:00 local time, also in a humid venue. Germany have a squad with most players from 6'0" to 6'6", big players who may not like heat and humidity.

Ghana have seven of the 2010 squad that were unlucky not to make the 2010 semis (Suarez handball).
In WC 2010 they lost 0-1 to Germany, and beat USA 2-1 (aet). So they are not no-hopers against their group opponents on past form.
The African Cup Of Nations earlier this year might have given them some tournament experience.
Average squad age 25.2. About ten of the squad play in Italy or France.
There is a good chance of a profitable trade from 260 odds.

diomed

Stojkovic wrote: »

The last time it was played in South America it was in Black & White (almost).
The World has changed immeasurably since then.

I agree with you. Almost all players in the contending World Cup squads now play their club football in the European leagues.
It is more about which league a player plays in, not where they are were born (because they never play there).

1986 WC winners Argentina 22 player squad: Europe 6; Mexico 1; Argentina 15.
2014 WC Argentina preliminary 30 player squad: Europe 23; Mexico 1; Brazil 1; Argentina 5.
And imo some of the 5 playing in the Argentina league are in the 2014 preliminary squad as a PR exercise.

diomed

ASOT wrote: »

Ghana to get 0 points in there group is 7/1... in a group with Germany, Portugal & USA it looks a decent shout.

They got 4 points in World Cup 2010 in their group.

bradlente

Good post on the goalscorer/outright there diomed,I'll definitely keep an eye out myself for that goalscorer tactic.
Ghana look a decent shout but I already got on Portugal at a decent price when they were struggling in qualifiers so I'll probably stick with them there.Interesting viewpoint on the weather there,for arguments sake how much warmer will it be in Brazil than Germany in 2006 when there was a heatwave?Higher temperatures reached the high 20s at the time over there,that looks to be roughly the average temperature over in Brazil with a couple of fluctuations depending on where you are.I know the England Italy game is being held further south so depending on a few venues it might change a bit but I'm not weighing into account the weather that much.7/8 of the top 4 from the last two competitions have been European and weren't played in very different conditions to this,unless there's some altitude stuff to account for as well?

ianburke

my goalscorer bets are: messi 8/1,neymar 12/1,aguero 16/1. all e/w. think one of them will give me a serious run for my money. there are great odds on others too but i think argies will smash a few goals in their group. the worry would be they rest a few for final game but hopefully one of the two will start. went with neymar as hes brazils main man and should bag a few.

player of the tournament ive gone with neymar 13/2 and messi 8/1, and also backed argentina and brazil outright. putting eggs in one basket but only comes around every 4 yrs so why not enjoy it.cheeky few bob on brazil argie final at 9/1.

only other bet is on no hat trick to be scored at 3/1. wont be backing anything once the tournament starts so hopefully some bets are still in with a chance come july

diomed

bradlente
It is the humidity that might be the problem, around 80% to 82% in Natal, Salvador, Recife, Fortaleza, Manaus.

diomed

diomed wrote: »

Goalscorer market:
I have one player "on watch" and might post him here when I get a bet on at ridiculous odds.

A little was matched at 16:25 today.
I have asked for more at that price.

Back (Bet For) ____ Odds __ Stake ______ Profit
Wakaso Mubarak __ 800 __ €4.02 ___ €3,211.98

carraig2

diomed wrote: »

They got 4 points in World Cup 2010 in their group.

More importantly they got to quarter final and unlucky to lose to Uruguay in that match. Missed a penalty that would have won it. Ghana no duds.

inforfun

diomed wrote: »

A little was matched at 16:25 today.
I have asked for more at that price.

Back (Bet For) ____ Odds __ Stake ______ Profit
Wakaso Mubarak __ 800 __ €4.02 ___ €3,211.98

Cards Bet Alert!!

DesperateDan

This was just over 10/1, stuck a couple quid on it

diomed

Yeah, Wakaso Mubarak has 2 red cards and 12 yellows in Spain in, I think, about a year. Top man. :pac:

Now ... Wakaso Mubarak 800 €6.44 €5,145.56

diomed

Wakaso Mubarak :pac::pac::pac:
"This would only be the first of three expulsions and received five yellow cards in just 500 minutes of play during his first season."

bradlente

Would you not be worried about him getting game time diomed?Has a decent record but there's a fair few ahead of him in the pecking order by the looks of it.Gyan,Asamoash and Andre Ayew should be starting in his place.

diomed

True, he may not even start. That has happened me before with goalscorer bets. But I'm not going to lose much.

Fowler87

Anyone get paid out on Henderson to make England squad yet or any other squad bet for that matter?

discombobulate

Fowler87 wrote: »

Anyone get paid out on Henderson to make England squad yet or any other squad bet for that matter?

Yep. Paddy Power paid me anyway

inforfun

Fowler87 wrote: »

Anyone get paid out on Henderson to make England squad yet or any other squad bet for that matter?

Squads have to be confirmed to Fifa june 2nd.
Dont think you ll get paid before that day.

Fowler87

discombobulate wrote: »

Yep. Paddy Power paid me anyway

Waiting on ladbrokes myself. Id say as Infor said, 2nd June will likely be the date

Austria!

Fowler87 wrote: »

Anyone get paid out on Henderson to make England squad yet or any other squad bet for that matter?

yeah, william hill and bet victor paid me on squads already.

neil.p.b

Cameron, Australia, Costa Rica and Honduras all to finish with 0 points. 108/1. Decent punt.

clickerquicklic

Laid a very large lump on Brazil at 4.1
2 reasons
Won't be using my exchange cash for much else between this and that and think bookies will boost Brazil to 7/2 and 4/1 happy to take it as a trade and get out at ~4.8

Warper

Cant believe Belgium are 5th favs for this, i think they have zero chance of winning

tomaussie

Warper wrote: »

Cant believe Belgium are 5th favs for this, i think they have zero chance of winning

I can see them going home before the second round.

Bateman

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Laid a very large lump on Brazil at 4.1
2 reasons
Won't be using my exchange cash for much else between this and that and think bookies will boost Brazil to 7/2 and 4/1 happy to take it as a trade and get out at ~4.8

A couple of firms have already done their offers on Brazil, I'd be surprised if there was any sort of sustained 4s available between now and the off.

I like a Brazil-Mexico straight forecast at 2/1.