WC 2014 Brasil; Starts June 12th 2014

Hotale.com

I can't believe Uruguay's odds, any team with Cavani and Suarez (in the form of his life) has a serious chance of winning the WC.

Bateman

Hotale.com wrote: »

I can't believe Uruguay's odds, any team with Cavani and Suarez (in the form of his life) has a serious chance of winning the WC.

And Brazil fear them

Hotale.com

Bateman wrote: »

And Brazil fear them

Why's that...?

MaroonAndGreen

To be honest if this cup wasnt hosted by Brazil I dont think they'd be anywhere near favourites. Its a bit dodgy for them having Fred as your no1 striker. If Neymar isnt in top form there gona be in trouble.

I wouldnt be backing Brazil

Hotale.com

Uruguay to win the WC and Suarez to be top goal scorer is 66/1, not bad considering Uruguay on their own are 30/1, and for them to realistically have any chance of winning it Suarez (or Cavani) will have to score a lot of goals.

MaroonAndGreen

Hotale.com wrote: »

Uruguay to win the WC and Suarez to be top goal scorer is 66/1, not bad considering Uruguay on their own are 30/1, and for them to realistically have any chance of winning it Suarez (or Cavani) will have to score a lot of goals.

They have a strong team all round. Muslera is a solid keeper, Godin and Caceres will be as good a centre half pairing at the tournament IMO.

Im not totally convinced by their midfield though, Gaston Ramirez is a good player no doubt but World Cup winning centre midfielder? Im not sure.

They certaintly have the best strikers in the tournament though with Suarez and Cavani.

30/1 is a good bet, if they get out of their tough group they'l surely do well.

Hotale.com

MaroonAndGreen wrote: »

They have a strong team all round. Muslera is a solid keeper, Godin and Caceres will be as good a centre half pairing at the tournament IMO.

Im not totally convinced by their midfield though, Gaston Ramirez is a good player no doubt but World Cup winning centre midfielder? Im not sure.

They certaintly have the best strikers in the tournament though with Suarez and Cavani.

30/1 is a good bet, if they get out of their tough group they'l surely do well.

If they get out of their group I could see them being 3rd or 4th favourites, I'll definitely stick a fiver on them.

It's such an open tournament this time round, there's about 10 teams which are very closely matched!

fuzzydunlop85

Think Italy are seriously overpriced at 25-1. They've been here before and done it, solid defense and can grind out results if they get to the knockout phases.

Lucas Castroman

fuzzydunlop85 wrote: »

Think Italy are seriously overpriced at 25-1. They've been here before and done it, solid defense and can grind out results if they get to the knockout phases.

+Balotelli as topscorer looks good at 33/1. He takes the penalties, is their main striker, guaranteed to play every match and Italy could last well into the tournament.

Nice odds on Croatia beating Brazil in the opening match - Croatia are going to have a seriously sexy midfield - Rakitic, Modric, Kovacic (who I suspect is going to be a revelation at this tournament if his recent performances for inter have been anything to go on)

Bateman

Hotale.com wrote: »

Why's that...?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2628167/Why-England-shouldnt-underestimate-Uruguay-Neymar-introduces-Gabriella-Lenzi-Barcelona.html

It's kind of based on historical intangibles etc etc but Uruguay never have an inferiority complex when playing Brazil, almost every other team does/will

Deco99

I see very little mention of Germany and potential german top scorers, they are capable of getting 3/4 goals a game. Was happy enough to put my fiver on Reus/Germany Top scorer/Winner @125/1. Am i missing something glaringly obvious with that bet?

iLikeWaffles

Usually do a draw in work for World Cup. Everyone gets a team €10/20 each.

Anybody know of any similar draws. Something like last man standing or some sort of points system were even the crap teams could win you a few quid??

Hotale.com

Deco99 wrote: »

I see very little mention of Germany and potential german top scorers, they are capable of getting 3/4 goals a game. Was happy enough to put my fiver on Reus/Germany Top scorer/Winner @125/1. Am i missing something glaringly obvious with that bet?

That Reus isn't a striker maybe? He'll score goals but he'd have to have an amazing tournament to be top scorer

clickerquicklic

Bateman wrote: »

A couple of firms have already done their offers on Brazil, I'd be surprised if there was any sort of sustained 4s available between now and the off.

I like a Brazil-Mexico straight forecast at 2/1.

I don't think the maths adds up on them priced at 4 on betfair means they would have to average odds of 2/5 in each of there 4 games against possibly Spain Columbia Germany Argentina 1.06(group qualifications odds)*1.4*1.4*1.4*1.4 = 4.07 considering they are 1.36 to beat croatia id expect them to be minimum 1.4 against columbia and a good bit bigger against the other 3 , i think we will see a Brazil drift personally. If not ill manually acca Brazil odds in each game i'm sure it will work out more profitable.

Deco99

i think i'm goin on the likelihood he could be germanys top scorer and that they'll go far. good value for a fiver i reckon

Bateman

Yeah I don't necessarily think you won't be able to get out of the trade with a small profit or no red but expecting them to drift to 5.0 outright might be a bit of a stretch, no matter how ordinary they appear in the early stages - and being honest I can see them getting a nervy 1-0 or 2-1 against Croatia.

I read a FourFourTwo preview of them today and it said that their age profile suggests that if they were to go a goal down in a knockout game they could cave.

Shanotheslayer

Right folks. My Write up for the WC so far. I will be doing a lot of cover bets as I feel there is still good value.

Dual Forecast:

Brazil-Mexico 13/10
Brazil-Croatia 13/10

Spain-Holland evens
Spain-Chile 13/10

Switzerland-France 6/5
Ecuador-France 2/1

Argentina-Bosnia 11/10

Colombia-Ivory Coast 15/8

Will be doubling the Argentina/Colombia dual forecast at 5/1

Straight Forecast

Brazil-Croatia 7/4
Brazil-Mexico 15/8

Spain Holland 2/1
Spain Chile 10/3

To finish Bottom

Cameroon 8/11
Greece 13/8

Round of Elimination:
Croatia Last 16 13/8
Mexico Last 16 13/8
Assuming either finish 2nd, and Spain finish first, can't see either beating Spain.

Chile Last 16 9/4
Holland Last 16 2/1
Assuming one of these will get 2nd place. Can't see either beating Brazil in Last 16

Switzerland Last 16 13/8
Ecuador Last 16 13/8
Assuming one of these get 2nd place. Argentina surely get first. Can't see either team beating Argies.

Top Goalscorers for there team:

Fred 3/1
Costa 5/2
Dzeko 6/4

Bateman

Very skinny price on Diego Costa especially considering his injury worries. Would he be on pens does anyone know?

I know everything has a price and consequently there is often value to be had on unlikely outcomes but dual forecast inferior value to straight forecasts in the Brazil group IMO

Shanotheslayer

Bateman wrote: »

Very skinny price on Diego Costa especially considering his injury worries. Would he be on pens does anyone know?

I know everything has a price and consequently there is often value to be had on unlikely outcomes but dual forecast inferior value to straight forecasts in the Brazil group IMO

Can't see Costa taking Penos ahead of Alonso? Or Xavi, think 1 of them usually take them

Hotale.com

Wouldn't surprise me if Costa doesn't start, Del Bosque is a bit of a fool.

Shanotheslayer

Hotale.com wrote: »

Wouldn't surprise me if Costa doesn't start, Del Bosque is a bit of a fool.

Bit of a fool?:/ Yeh his WC/Euros medals with Spain beg to differ.

bradlente

Isn't Fred no.1?Costa struggling with injury as well.

Never mind (Embarrassed face)

Hotale.com

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Bit of a fool?:/ Yeh his WC/Euros medals with Spain beg to differ.

His 4-6-0 formation in the Euros was a joke.

I know he's a good manager but he has made some fairly random decisions which seemed to be completely illogical.

Shanotheslayer

bradlente wrote: »

Isn't Fred no.1?Costa struggling with injury as well.

Never mind (Embarrassed face)

Is it not Bale? :pac:

Austria!

Hotale.com wrote: »

His 4-6-0 formation in the Euros was a joke.

I know he's a good manager but he has made some fairly random decisions which seemed to be completely illogical.

His thinking is largely influenced by the defeat to the US in 2009. He went without the double pivot and they were hit on the counter and lost to a much worse team. Been highly conservative since then, and his team don't get caught on the break like Barcelona do.

I think Del Bosque has underperformed myself to be honest. Despite having the best team by miles in the last few year a lot of Spain's victories were lucky. They could have gone out of the group if MAdzu scores a header in 2012, and portugal took them to penalties. Barely got past Paraguay in 2010 and had to rely on a great save to stop Robben in the final.

This year is different, in that Xavi is older now and possibly Alonso will find it hard to last the pace too. Del Bosque will have to adapt from his previous strategy, and he's a bit stuck in his ways. That could be Spain's undoing here.

Having said that, Costa will start.

Hotale.com

I think Spain have left their golden era go by without playing any beautiful football besides Euro 2008, at the last World Cup and Euros they did the job but they could have set the world alight with the players they had instead of just mastering the 1-0 win. I know winning's the aim, but it really is such a shame that they play as well as they could.

inforfun

Suarez undergoing knee surgery and might be out of the WC.
(acc to Dutch football website)

Hotale.com

inforfun wrote: »

Suarez undergoing knee surgery and might be out of the WC.
(acc to Dutch football website)

And I was gonna put down my Suarez and Uruguay double today :P

I don't really fancy anyone now after that, I had a serious feeling that Uruguay would win it. Might throw my fiver on Portugal now and just hope Ronaldo has the best WC performance of all time...

Austria!

Lukaku top belgian scorer @ 3.5

easy group, sole striker.

Hotale.com

Austria! wrote: »

Lukaku top belgian scorer @ 3.5

easy group, sole striker.

Hazard? I know he plays wide but I could see him scoring more than Lukaku easily.