Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

thomond2006

Following the revision of the handicaps I don't see any value in the Pro14 to be honest.

sydthebeat

thomond2006 wrote: »

Following the revision of the handicaps I don't see any value in the Pro14 to be honest.

see any value in NZ -16 v Aus?

theyve beaten them by 28 points at home and 25 points away already this season.

i think -16 is generous to australia.... especially seeing as they are removing Folaus threat by putting him at 13... and hes not the best defender in the world in general, so his job is doubly difficult there.

also, looking at the benches, theres an absolute chasm of talent between them....

The teams:

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody
Replacements: 16 Nathan Harris, 17 Karl Tu’inukuafe, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Brodie Retallick, 20 Matt Todd, 21 Aaron Smith, 22 Richie Mo’unga, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown

Australia: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Sefa Naivalu, 13 Israel Folau, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Faingaa, 1 Scott Sio
Replacements: 16 Tolu Latu, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Rory Arnold, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Samu Kerevi, 23 Tom Banks

aloooof

thomond2006 wrote: »

Following the revision of the handicaps I don't see any value in the Pro14 to be honest.

I was gonna suggest Benneton +18, but then saw the Leinster line-up.

franglan

Anyone on Connacht at 31/20 to win 1-12 points?

Del.Monte

Connacht v Ospreys almost a complete disaster until Bundee Aki got his 65th minute try - such are the fine margins between, in this case, losing everything and being 25% up on the night.

CFC007

How do ye see the handicaps going today in the internationals?

Del.Monte

My only bets of the weekend and with my whole losing budget committed.

Weather forecast is okay for London area - dry with light winds
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpu8prv0#?date=2018-11-03

Should be a cracker with God's chosen people just about coming out on top.

sydthebeat

CFC007 wrote: »

How do ye see the handicaps going today in the internationals?

I don't see any value in the internationals... Too many unknowns

In on both South African teams to beat their spreads in the pro 14

The real mccoy 91

Gone with singles and a double on north anytime 6/5 and may anytime 6/5 more value there than in handicaps I feel hard games to call

Del.Monte

Cleaned out again but at least my prediction was right.

thomond2006

PP have a power price of 9/2 for Jordi Murphy try in 90 minutes. I've put a small bet on that.

ClanofLams

Backed Bundee to be Motm in Italy game. Didn't realise Luke Fitzgerald was commentating and presumably selecting, might as well tear up docket now...

The real mccoy 91

Splitting stakes between larmour and Conway to get 2 12/5 and 10/3

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

PP have a power price of 9/2 for Jordi Murphy try in 90 minutes. I've put a small bet on that.

Ah feck, I just realised he's on the bench...

Hopefully he gets 25-30 minutes.

ionadnapóca

Arg are -16. Value there.
Ireland beat them by 9 last year. & there was clear signs of physical fatigue & Head coach fatigue back then.
Remember they came back out at HT in that game 5 mins early. Horicade bit the bullet 6 months later

Elvisjuice

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Arg are -16. Value there.
Ireland beat them by 9 last year. & there was clear signs of physical fatigue & Head coach fatigue back then.
Remember they came back out at HT in that game 5 mins early. Horicade bit the bullet 6 months later

think you have your + n - ****ed

ionadnapóca

Elvisjuice wrote: »

think you have your + n - ****ed

Thank you!!
+17 now

sydthebeat

some fun bets for the weekend

aloooof

Long shot here but would anyone have the spreads before last weeks Pro14 games?

sydthebeat

aloooof wrote: »

Long shot here but would anyone have the spreads before last weeks Pro14 games?

any games in particular?

aloooof

sydthebeat wrote: »

any games in particular?

Looking for Edinburgh v Scarlets and Ospreys v Glasgow, just the Friday games.

sydthebeat

aloooof wrote: »

Looking for Edinburgh v Scarlets and Ospreys v Glasgow, just the Friday games.

depending on where you were betting edinburgh were generally -2 / -3

ospreys fluctuated between +1 and +3

aloooof

sydthebeat wrote: »

depending on where you were betting edinburgh were generally -2 / -3

ospreys fluctuated between +1 and +3

Perfect, thanks a million!

sydthebeat

Sean Cronin first try scorer @14s

SOB MOTM @9s

Del.Monte

In a real quandary this morning

England v All Blacks

No-hopers England to win @ 9/2 is throwing good money away and NZ -14 @ 10/11 looks to be the sensible option although England always manage to raise their game against the All Blacks?

Perhaps try scorers are the way to go? Damien McKenzie starts at full-back and @5/4 for an anytime try looks good; Beauden Barrett @ 13/8; Ioane Rieko try at 8/11 a certainty?; Aaron Smith 13/5; Sonny Bill 16/5; Codie Taylor 2/1 and assuming England aren't nilled Chris Ashton 17/10.

Wales v Australia:

Australia > 10.5 in the 1st half @ 4/5
Tryscorers: Beale 9/2; Hooper 9/2; and Halfpenny 6/1

Confused? I am, and I haven't even dealt with France/SA or Ireland/Argentina yet.

Elvisjuice

sydthebeat wrote: »

Sean Cronin first try scorer @14s

SOB MOTM @9s

is cronin not on the bench ?

The real mccoy 91

England to get a yellow card @7/4 on betway probably the best value I have found on a tricky day.

Also took singles on scots win and both teams score 20+ 9/4

Same bet for Wales win 4/1

All on betway

mrcheez

Argentina +17 for 2.0 on PP looks decent?

razorblunt

Maori -80 vs Brazil?

The difference will be huge but 80 points is still a big ask. 10/11

mrcheez

mrcheez wrote: »

Argentina +17 for 2.0 on PP looks decent?

A bit nervy at the end but thank **** for that