Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

Fireball07

Fireball07 wrote: »

Gonna get 1/3 at best...poor day.

Should have taken wprathead's tip, was really tempted.

0/3 it looks like

Judgement Day

Judgement Day wrote: »

Scatter gun over the Ospreys vs Ulster game:

More than 19.5 points in first half
Ospreys more than 11.5 points in 1st half
Ulster more than 8.5 points in 1st half

All at 5/6.

Weather damp and rain likely so a definite gamble.

Ouch!!!

Not a good start to the weekend.

P.C.

SA, Argentina and Leinster to win.

Lets see how the day goes.

Podge_irl

Bit late but:

2 units South Africa @ evens
2 units Argentina @ evens
3 units Munster at 7/5

1 unit on 3 doubles on the above
2 units on a treble.

New balance: 74 units

Judgement Day

Judgement Day wrote: »

Ouch!!!

Not a good start to the weekend.

Recovered with today's epic game (SA vs ABs) and now back to where I started the weekend. Taking lack of money spent on food vs money spent on booze I'm break even. Home now i.e. no outgoings and I'm going for Argentina to trounce the Aussies - not sure what yet until I sober up a bit. Should have stuck with my own advice and restricted my betting to real rugby.

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 40.78 units

- 1.5 units (10/11) Argentina +1
- 1.5 units (10/11) Munster +4
- .5 units (10/11) Oyonnax +24
- .5 units (13/8) Perpignan to win
- .5 units (11/4) Bayonne to win
- 1 unit (10/11) Toulon -10
- .75 units (10/11) Racing -15

New Balance: 34.53 units

I might add a few more closer to the weekend.

Edit: Toulon and Racing bets added.

Down to 38.71 units.

Judgement Day

Judgement Day wrote: »

What reasoning would you like? The Aussies are in woeful form and the Argentinians almost beat them in the first match at home (14-13) and the way they played against the ABs I reckon they could run out convincing winners.

17-54 to the Aussies - Wow, who saw that coming? Glad I was too knackered after the pub to stay up and watch or bet.

P.C.

P.C. wrote: »

SA, Argentina and Leinster to win.

Lets see how the day goes.

New balance 19.

thomond2006

Old Balance: 38.71 units

- 4 units (10/11) Munster -8
- 1.5 units (10/11) Exeter -7
- .5 units (10/11) Harlequins -10
- .5 units (6/4) Perpignan to win
- .5 units (~9/1) Munster, Leinster, Ulster, Castres and Racing to all win

New Balance: 31.71 units

I'm very confident that Munster can cover that spread, Edinburgh are absolutely gash and Munster in Heineken Cup mode should win by at least 12 points. Edinburgh's only win this year is 19-16 at home to Dragons. They have the worst offensive and defensive record in the league with 70 points scored and 142 points conceded in 5 matches. Munster weren't brilliant against Leinster but breaking that losing streak can only help. They'll fancy a bonus point in this and I'd like to think they'd like to atone for an average display in Edinburgh last January when they failed to get the BP.

As always I might add more bets before the w/end.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

I've had a big splash on Munster -8. Great bet in my humble opinion

wp_rathead

Hate to say it but Saracens -11 looks a decent bet

Our injury list is frightening:

• Denis Buckley
• Willie Faloon
• Jason Harris-Wright
• Eoin McKeon
• Dave McSharry
• Miah Nikora
• Eoin Griffin
• Craig Ronaldson
• Kyle Tonetti
• Conor Finn
• Shane Layden
• Frank Murphy

Unavailable:

• James So’oialo

Doubts:

• Ronan Lougney
• Nathan White

Fireball07

The Munster -8 bet is a spread that should easily be covered, barring some freak conditions/performances.

Saracens -11 does seem 2/3 points shorter than I was thinking

No, you're a...

Forgot to post last weeks happenings:

Old Balance: 49.97 units

1 units (1.83) Argentina +1
1 unit (1.83) South Africa +1
1 unit (2.00) Munster +3

1 unit on a accumulator

New Balance: 47.94 units

Definitely going for Munster this week

4 units (0.91) Munster -8

New New Balance: 43.94

CatFromHue

Fireball07 wrote: »

The Munster -8 bet is a spread that should easily be covered, barring some freak conditions/performances.

Munster "only" beat Edinburgh by 9 points away last season in the HEC.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

CatFromHue wrote: »

Munster "only" beat Edinburgh by 9 points away last season in the HEC.

It was a pretty disastrous performance and we've come on a lot since then, plus our backline is much more potent

CatFromHue

Yup, good to keep these things in mind all the same.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

CatFromHue wrote: »

Yup, good to keep these things in mind all the same.

Also Edinburgh are worse!

Hype710

Have gone for a Munster/Ulster double (4/5) and Northampton to win (7/5). Fearing a Castres backlash but I still reckon NH can take this.

jamiedav2011

Northampton and Montpellier at 20/1 and 33/1 are both good dark horse bets for me.

Can't understand how Toulouse are such short odds at all.

Fireball07

CatFromHue wrote: »

Munster "only" beat Edinburgh by 9 points away last season in the HEC.

I assume that's why the spread is that much... I mean that still would have covered it, albeit barely.


I'd have to agree with Ugo though, taking things logically, we should beat them by more. We look a lot better than last season, this time last year we wouldn't have beaten Leinster.....still plenty of flaws, as the loss to Treviso highlighted but Edinburgh are poor.

We now have Laulala starting and in good form, Earls back on the wing in good form, Keatley at 10 who is a much more attacking out-half than ROG, POC back in the row, and Sherry at 2 who secures our lineout. Also, Edinburgh ran in two latish tries the last time, can't see that happening again.



Obviously, a shock is possible in sport, Edinburgh somehow managed to make the semis a couple of years ago...but unlikely.




It's the Connacht handicap I'd be more worried to bet on...they may have a lot of injuries, but at home, against a big English team, in the first game, I could see them really raising their game and delivering a massive performance.

Suckfisher

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Northampton and Montpellier at 20/1 and 33/1 are both good dark horse bets for me.

Can't understand how Toulouse are such short odds at all.

Two reasons Connacht and Zebre can see Toulouse getting 20 points here.

A home quarter for them seems porbable.

They have not been great last couple of seasons and many legends are coming to the ends of there careers.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Ok so I've had a big cut off Munster -8 and I won money on the darts last night so I put the winnings on a Munster -8 and Leinster -1 double

sensitive1960

Glasgow at +16 away to Toulon may have a chance.Glasgow rarely concede too much.

thomond2006

Connacht now available at +14, they were +11 earlier in the week.

jamiedav2011

Suckfisher wrote: »

Two reasons Connacht and Zebre can see Toulouse getting 20 points here.

A home quarter for them seems porbable.

They have not been great last couple of seasons and many legends are coming to the ends of there careers.

Yes but Sarries are in that group and will likely get 20 points too, while I'd say Toulouse are more likely to lose in Galway, and to lose at home to Sarries.

Toulouse being best runners up wouldn't have a home QF in that case.

ArmaniJeanss

Decent 4 page betting-orientated HCup preview in todays Racing Post (worth snaffling from the bookies on the way home).
Their headlines tips are Munster 20/1 and Saracens at 8/1.

P_1

Right so, my bets and musings about some of the weekends matches:

Ulster to beat Leicester @4/9. After a shakey start it seems the Ulstermen are finally starting to stand up, Leicester haven't really convinced me yet this season and I cant really seeing them breaching Fortress Ravenhill on a big Friday Night.
Saracens to beat Connacht @1/14. Sadly the Whesties have been woeful this season and those delightful folk in Sarries have been playing some fairly efficient rugby to start the season off.
Montpellier to beat Treviso @1/2. Monty have been playing some delightful rugby so far and are one of those rare French teams who give a continental site when playing away in Europe. Treviso are decent enough at home but I reckon that Monty have that little bit more.
Munster to beat Edinburgh @1/4. Edinburgh are, to be putting it mildly, ****e and Munster in Europe are, well Munster in Europe. Munster should be coming back from Edinburgh with some haggis, a hangover and 5 points.
Quins to beat Llanelli @1/9. Like Edinburgh, Llanelli are shoite, given the group that Quins find themselves in, nothing other than a convincing win means an early knockout for them.

Suckfisher

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Yes but Sarries are in that group and will likely get 20 points too, while I'd say Toulouse are more likely to lose in Galway, and to lose at home to Sarries.

Toulouse being best runners up wouldn't have a home QF in that case.

Toulouse losing in galway we can all dream will be more like the 36- 10hiding the last time.

Judgement Day

P_1 wrote: »

Right so, my bets and musings about some of the weekends matches:

Ulster to beat Leicester @4/9. After a shakey start it seems the Ulstermen are finally starting to stand up, Leicester haven't really convinced me yet this season and I cant really seeing them breaching Fortress Ravenhill on a big Friday Night.
Saracens to beat Connacht @1/14. Sadly the Whesties have been woeful this season and those delightful folk in Sarries have been playing some fairly efficient rugby to start the season off.
Montpellier to beat Treviso @1/2. Monty have been playing some delightful rugby so far and are one of those rare French teams who give a continental site when playing away in Europe. Treviso are decent enough at home but I reckon that Monty have that little bit more.
Munster to beat Edinburgh @1/4. Edinburgh are, to be putting it mildly, ****e and Munster in Europe are, well Munster in Europe. Munster should be coming back from Edinburgh with some haggis, a hangover and 5 points.
Quins to beat Llanelli @1/9. Like Edinburgh, Llanelli are shoite, given the group that Quins find themselves in, nothing other than a convincing win means an early knockout for them.

Good calls but, even without seeing the team, I'm not betting against Treviso at home.