Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

matthew8

Australia are evens at betfair. I quite like the Welsh lineup, but Australia should have a bit too much, combined with the fact that Wales aren't great against SH sides I might put a bit on them. That handicap on Munster looks good too, although the Dragons have been OK recently.

thomond2006

matthew8 wrote: »

Australia are evens at betfair. I quite like the Welsh lineup, but Australia should have a bit too much, combined with the fact that Wales aren't great against SH sides I might put a bit on them. That handicap on Munster looks good too, although the Dragons have been OK recently.

I just bet with PP. I think next year I might divide my units between a few different bookies and list them on here seperately, that way I can get the best value.

matthew8

thomond2006 wrote: »

I just bet with PP. I think next year I might divide my units between a few different bookies and list them on here seperately, that way I can get the best value.

Ah yeah I know you bet with PP, just for anyone else looking in on this thread. I think it's very impressive how well you do on PP with a lack of great value.

thomond2006

matthew8 wrote: »

Ah yeah I know you bet with PP, just for anyone else looking in on this thread. I think it's very impressive how well you do on PP with a lack of great value.

I haven't been doing well, I started out with 50 units at the start of the season.

P.Walnuts

thomond2006 wrote: »

I haven't been doing well, I started out with 50 units at the start of the season.

I would really try to keep track how your bets on Munster pan out, betting on your own team usually does not work out well in the long run. Even cutting your stake in half only for Munster might work...

No, you're a...

Old Balance: 40.88 units

1 unit Australia (-1.0) @ 1.90
1 unit Munster (-5.0) @ 2.00

1 unit double on the above

New Balance: 37.88 units

sydthebeat

this weekend

Dazzler0911

Double for the Weekend:

UCD (-7.0) v Cork Con
St Mary's v Belvo (+1.0)

matthew8

Ian Madigan anytime is 3.5 in paddypower. Looks very good to me. Leinster should be doing quite a bit of scoring tomorrow.

Judgement Day

The broken clock strikes again! Sorry for the after timing - again - but I cut it very fine making up my mind as to whether I would bet at all.

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 39.49 units

- 2 units (evens) Munster -5
- .5 units (9/5) Gerhard van den Heever try in 80 mins
- .5 units (11/4) Keith Earls try in 80 mins
- .25 units (9/1) Ian Keatley try in 80 mins
- 1 unit (13/8) Toulon to win
- 1 unit (10/11) Leinster -17 :mad::mad::mad: (ugh handicap draw)
- 1 unit (10/11) Oyonnax -4
- 1 unit (10/11) Bordeaux Begles +8
- 1 unit (5/6) Australia to win

New Balance: 31.24 units

New Balance: 36.90 units

matthew8

Had Leinster -17.5. Robbery.

duckysauce

matthew8 wrote: »

Had Leinster -17.5. Robbery.

-16 in 365

No, you're a...

No, you're a... wrote: »

Old Balance: 40.88 units

1 unit Australia (-1.0) @ 1.90
1 unit Munster (-5.0) @ 2.00

1 unit double on the above :(

New Balance: 37.88 units

New Balance: 39.80 unit

Exile22

1Unit Edinburgh V Connacht - Edinburgh (-1) [4/11]
1Unit Dragons V Munster - Munster (-3) [4/7]
1/2Unit Zebre V Ulster - Ulster (-8) [8/13]
1Unit Wales V Australia - Australia [10/11]
1Unit Leinster V Scarlets - Leinster (-11) [4/9]
1/2Unit Accumulator (exp LEI)

New balance 46.05 Units

@10/11

Castres -9 @10/11
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/castres-v-ospreys/handicaps

won't last

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87852299&postcount=8006

former legend

Deleted User wrote: »

Castres -9 @10/11
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/castres-v-ospreys/handicaps

Just so long as that Ospreys team is accurate...

ssaye2

former legend wrote: »

Just so long as that Ospreys team is accurate...

http://www.ercrugby.com/matchcentre/26071.php

thomond2006

I'm in anyway!

matthew8

Ospreys team isn't that weak imo but I'd still be backing Castres.

ssaye2

matthew8 wrote: »

Ospreys team isn't that weak imo but I'd still be backing Castres.

Down 6/7 starters pretty weak for HEC away to Castres in fairness

sydthebeat

Deleted User wrote: »

Castres -9 @10/11
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/castres-v-ospreys/handicaps

won't last

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87852299&postcount=8006

gone to -10 now... i wouldnt be surprised if they ended up -14

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

gone to -10 now... i wouldnt be surprised if they ended up -14

Reckon -13/-14 probably a fair price alright.

Ospreys probably 7/8 points off on a fair game, the second string certainly 5 points worse.

Gracelessly Tom

Was bored at lunch so went into PP and did the following Hail Mary accum.......

Castres - 10
Glasgow -4
Clermont -20
Exeter +8
Saracens -18
Leinster +2
Ulster -22
Gloucester +1
Leicester -12

All 10/11 so it pays around 336/1.

A man can dream.......:)

sydthebeat

Leinster @ 10/11
Handicap Betting(+2.0)

Toulouse @ 1/200

Leicester @ 1/10

Ulster @ 1/100

Saracens @ 1/25

Clermont Auvergne @ 1/80

Castres @ 10/11
Handicap Betting(-10.0)


basically two handicaps with a few bankers (i hope)
pays about 3.5 / 1

P.Walnuts

sydthebeat wrote: »

Leinster @ 10/11
Handicap Betting(+2.0)

Toulouse @ 1/200

Leicester @ 1/10

Ulster @ 1/100

Saracens @ 1/25

Clermont Auvergne @ 1/80

Castres @ 10/11
Handicap Betting(-10.0)


basically two handicaps with a few bankers (i hope)
pays about 3.5 / 1

Leinster, Castres and Leicster by themselves bring it to 3.01/1......Ulster, Clermont and Saracens are all risk and no value

sydthebeat

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Leinster, Castres and Leicster by themselves bring it to 3.01/1......Ulster, Clermont and Saracens are all risk and no value

well the way im lookng at it is, hopefully, the only banana skin here is the Leinster bet.

matthew8

I don't think the Ospreys bet is as clear cut as made out to be. Castres are without Tales, Martial and Forestier.

Glasgow have serious potential tomorrow. Cardiff pack has serious imbalance without Warburton. The backline looks fine but I worry about their forwards. Might back them -5.

wp_rathead

Sat 24/08/13 TO1 Stade Toulousain 40 - 3 Bayonne (37 win)
Wed 04/09/13 TO1 Stade Toulousain 30 - 6 Racing Métro 92 (24 win)
Sat 14/09/13 TO1 Stade Toulousain 31 - 7 Biarritz (24 win)
Sat 21/09/13 TO1 Stade Toulousain 26 - 9 Castres Olympique (17 win)
Sat 05/10/13 TO1 Stade Toulousain 28 - 10 Stade Français (18 win)
Fri 11/10/13 ERC Stade Toulousain 38 - 5 Zebre (33 win)
Sat 26/10/13 TO1 Stade Toulousain 13 - 12 Toulon (1 win)
Sat 23/11/13 TO1 Stade Toulousain 14 - 3 US Oyonnax Rugby (11 win)

The Connacht +25 handicap looks about right, gonna wait till the Alt Handicaps are up and try get Connacht at +32 in an accy with few more teams..

matthew8

Clermont -20, Saracens -18, Leicester -12, Edinburgh -1 and Exeter +8 look good to me but I'll have to wait to see the teams.

Thought about it a bit more and Glasgow -5 is just about right. Might place a bet on Castres -10.5 if I can get it at evens but I have definite reservations about them putting up a big score in the Heineken Cup. Ospreys still have Biggar, AWJ, Ryan Jones and Tipuric so I don't think the team will just roll over.