Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

rekluse

sydthebeat wrote: »

The best value I see is England -8.

I think they could double that spread.

Cheers syd you were spot on and had a few quid down !

Loafing Oaf

Del.Monte wrote: »

A few wild ones to start the weekend.



Ireland to be nilled @ 31/1

Could well land this:(

Del.Monte

Thanks to some live betting I'm a staggering .20cents up on where I started the weekend. NZ more than 36.5 points taken towards the last quarter of the match brought things back to parity.



Tomorrow



Wales -6 @ 10/11 - (a comment by a poster on Planet Rugby decided this for me - 'France are absolute directionless garbage. They will get hammered on Sunday and Wales will deservedly move on to the semi finals. End of.'



France over (+8.5) in 1st half @ 8/11


Wales over (+12.5) in 1st half @ Evens

---

Japan to win @ 9/2


Japan over (+8.5) in 1st half @ 5/6

sydthebeat

Very tempted at this stage to lump on NZ -7.... Though weather could be a factor so I'll wait closer to the day.

sydthebeat

Leinster - 23 away to zebre seems about 10 points too narrow to me..

Long range forecast is sunny and pleasant.

sydthebeat

pro14 best for this weekend

leinster -23 @evens
treviso -18 @evens

sydthebeat

hummmm i cant understand the money following zebre in the betting?

leinster gone from -23 to -17 after teams named.
fair enough zebre have 6 returning from the RWC squad, but 2 of those are playing out of their regular positions.

but they have shipped 54, 52, 50, in their three game already pretty mid table teams in edinburgh, scarlets and dragons.

Leinster havent found scoring too difficult... and thats a very decent and mobile forward pack we are putting out.

i think -17 is very generous to zebre but lets see....

The real mccoy 91

Right I think we have 2 very live outsiders this week and imo the spreads are definitely on the high side. England are every bit as good as nz in my eyes and are in better form this year. Wales are well capable of putting it up to sa and gatland is the best coach left in the wc so they will have everything planned to a tee a bit like the Australia game.

Having a go on the 14/1 on Wales and England winning on pp and 2 bet builders for each

England -3 ht
England +4
England over 10.5 points
May anytime
12/1

England +3 ht
England +10
Over 33.5 points
Over 16.5 in second half
4/1

Wales +4 ht
Wales -3
Under 38.5 points
10/1

Wales +4 ht
Wales +6
Under 41.5 points
7/2

rekluse

Well that's just scuppered me I was coming on to ask about Nz -7 and SA - 8 ! Cheers for the insight tho.

The real mccoy 91

rekluse wrote: »

Well that's just scuppered me I was coming on to ask about Nz -7 and SA - 8 ! Cheers for the insight tho.

If I was to stick my neck on the line for 1 bet for the weekend it would be Wales +9. Ignoring friendlies i don't know but id say you will have to do a good bit of digging to find the last time they were beat by double figures

Lucy8080

HT/FT

England @7/2.

Anytime Try

Watson @7/2 .

May @11/4.

sydthebeat

NZ v eng
Both teams to score at least 1 try in each half @ 7/2

Wales v SA
Both teams to score at least 1 try in each half @ 13/2

Sneaky double @ 32/1

billybonkers

sydthebeat wrote: »

hummmm i cant understand the money following zebre in the betting?

leinster gone from -23 to -17 after teams named.
fair enough zebre have 6 returning from the RWC squad, but 2 of those are playing out of their regular positions.

but they have shipped 54, 52, 50, in their three game already pretty mid table teams in edinburgh, scarlets and dragons.

Leinster havent found scoring too difficult... and thats a very decent and mobile forward pack we are putting out.

i think -17 is very generous to zebre but lets see....

Leinster up 3-0 at halftime?

sydthebeat

billybonkers wrote: »

Leinster up 3-0 at halftime?

Yeah I'm being wiped out this weekend

In my defense the long range forecast coming into the weekend was for sunny and pleasant.... And its anything but there....

Loafing Oaf

Anyone know if teams generally play full strength sides, or close to, for the third/fourth playoff?

billybonkers

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Anyone know if teams generally play full strength sides, or close to, for the third/fourth playoff?

New Zealand will not

Loafing Oaf

billybonkers wrote: »

New Zealand will not

I was thinking that. Mounga is slightly longer than Farrell to be top points scorer, even though he is only 7 points behind him. You'd think if he was guaranteed to play he would be favourite.

sydthebeat

I am all over England -3

Del.Monte

sydthebeat wrote: »

I am all over England -3

Me too, fickle turncoat that I am and I have my freshly dry cleaned England shirt at the ready. It's coming home.

sydthebeat

Bets so far for the weekend.

england -3 @evens
under 37.5 points @ 10/11

cheetahs +5 v scarlets @ evens

Del.Monte

So far gone with England (-5) @ Evens - I was late getting on here; and NZ and SA to both be leading at HT and FT @ 11/2.

I'll probably take SA to win @ 7/4 with an early cash out in mind.

I was going to go out and watch NZ v Wales but I can't work up any interest in this utterly pointless game.

sydthebeat

Del.Monte wrote: »

So far gone with England (-5) @ Evens - I was late getting on here; and NZ and SA to both be leading at HT and FT @ 11/2.

I'll probably take SA to win @ 7/4 with an early cash out in mind.

I was going to go out and watch NZ v Wales but I can't work up any interest in this utterly pointless game.

agreed, i can see every possible way of that game going... so theres no value in my eyes in any wagerthere. It could be a low scoring 1 point cracker... with wales wanting to break the duck of never beating them outside of wales...

or wales could look at their team selected and think they are mainly second string so no one expects anything, and NZ could put 50 on them.

NZ are playing at least 5 players who will be leaving after RWC, with hansen going as well..... so they might be fired up to redeem themselves after the meek loss to england.

it could go anyway.

i might be tempted to go under 53.5 points.... as that welsh side will struggle to score anything not off the tee.... and even from the tee patchell can be dodgy.
with the spread being 20 points that means that the min expected score would be around something like 37 - 17. I could see NZ reaching that, but i cant see wales getting to 17.

feck it, iv just convinced myself to go under 53.5 points... ill put something small on it.

Loafing Oaf

On De Klerk and Pollard for MOTM and Kolbe to score two or more tries

Lucy8080

-3 England @evens, missed that, -5 is gone too. I like to get odds when betting.

So, It seems S.A. have some enhanced odds compared to England..

Anytime try-

Kolbe -@7/2

Le Roux-@ 15/2.

@11/1

Mapimpi FTS @11/1

de Klerk MOTM @11/1

Nibble on Mapimpi MOTM @50/1

Edit: Just spotted de Klerk to score a try boost on Betfair. 7/1 to 10/1. I'll have a go.

sydthebeat

A couple more on the final.

De klerk anytime @9/1

Pollard to score over 9.5 points @ 11/10

Loafing Oaf

How soon will we know MOTM? Presume it's an official tournament thing rather than by ITV or whatever...

Leinstertomas

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

How soon will we know MOTM? Presume it's an official tournament thing rather than by ITV or whatever...

It was Duane Vermeulen

Loafing Oaf

Leinstertomas wrote: »

It was Duane Vermeulen

thanks:(

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

A couple more on the final.

De klerk anytime @9/1

Pollard to score over 9.5 points @ 11/10

Lost my shirt on England.

A little back on pollard.