August weather ONLY MOD NOTE : #213

pistolpetes11

Ive been away for a few days , and I come back to this ???

Firstly KEN ,

There is an ignore button and you can ignore posters and wont see there posts, if you feel folks are baiting you , dont bite , report the post and ignore them

Secondly Folks,

Some of you should know better , you back someone into a corner and they will come out fighting , its not in the spirit of the weather forum community

Thirdly Ken ,

People obviously want to engage with you , if you dont wish to engage with them then maybe this is not the place to be , if you do then it could be enjoyable for all involved once things are kept civil , everyone is entitled to there own opinions and views, If you feel people are being derogatory towards you please report the post and dont get involved in the tit for tat exchanges of the last few days

Im going to leave it at that for now but will be operating a zero tolerance policy from here on in

Elmer Blooker

Altnarharra up in NW Scotland is noted for recording for some very low temperatures but this is very unusual for mid August
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html

Popoutman

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Altnarharra up in NW Scotland is noted for recording for some very low temperatures but this is very unusual for mid August
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html

How odd. Wonder how that happened!

Kenring

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Altnarharra up in NW Scotland is noted for recording for some very low temperatures but this is very unusual for mid August
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html

I have added some free information on my website that may explain this.

Popoutman

Kenring wrote: »

I have added some free information on my website that may explain this.

I don't see it. I'm sure a description of the site where this information may be found would work around the ban on directing traffic to the commercial site. If it's free than I would assume that it would be okay. Even PM me the link.

I don't see any description of why there is a single anomalous point in a single run of a weather model. I can think of a few reasons why it may happen, and it does suggest that there was a problem with an input parameter. To be expected every so often with automated runs, but that's why there's a consensus of runs done for the models so that any spurious outputs can be recognised and ignored if necessary.

dopolahpec

No offense but is this the August thread or the Ken Ring thread? Is there not an actual Ken Ring thread?

Anyway I'm just pulling in to say that there seems to be a developing trend of a HP dominated end to the month with potentially fine settled weather showing across many of the models.

Kenring

dopolahpec wrote: »

No offense but is this the August thread or the Ken Ring thread? Is there not an actual Ken Ring thread?

Anyway I'm just pulling in to say that there seems to be a developing trend of a HP dominated end to the month with potentially fine settled weather showing across many of the models.

Yes it's happening the way we said, given a 1-3 day leeway. This is the August thread I started. The other one was closed by mods because it became abusive.

Cee-Jay-Cee

Popoutman wrote: »

It appears that everywhere will be warm - except where it won't be, and except when it won't be. And those area that are different will only be seen after the fact.
After all - Ken doesn't do forecasts, he does opinions. That's a direct paraphrase of Ken's. Believe what you want about them, but it's always worth reading exactly what Ken writes, and comparing it later on when it shows up to be less than accurate.

MTC's summer trend suggestions:
" I will say that June, July and August will each average 1.2 degrees above long-term normals, rainfall will be 70 to 90 per cent of normal, and sunshine will be 10-30 per cent above normal values."
Suggesting more of the same better summer than previous years. Better and longer sunny spells, interspersed with shorter cooler damp spells. No real information on timings, but very useful when seen as a trend. I'd be more inclined to believe MTC's forecast given the previous performance over previous years, and it has been borne out by the numbers this summer so far. Note that MTC warns about a cooler and damper September than usual but with a chance later of an Indian summer.

I have no idea why Ken is singling me out - all I'm doing is asking pertinent questions, and he's apparently got a bit of a problem with that. If I read what appears to be nonsense I'll makes sure to ask for clarification as it may be my interpretation that's wrong, and it's an opportunity for that poster of nonsense to explain what's going on. Seems Ken's the only one that has an issue with that.

Regarding saturday coming, the model runs for FI are within reach at the moment - it's be interesting to watch the FI runs to see how they develop.

Why don't you clear off somewhere else. You are clearly being antagonistic, if you don't like someone's opinion the clear off elsewhere where the opinions mirror your own. Yes your entitled to your opinion but your being bloody minded and constant pestering is tiresome. This is a weather thread, KR offered his predictions/opinion/forecast and that's it. Do you question absolutely everyone else's threads if their method of calculation or opinion doesn't correspond with what you believe? I'll bet not, so why do it here. You are ruining this thread. I'm hitting the ignore button for your posts from now on as you haven't contributed one iota to this thread. You are a pest.

MOD NOTE ,

Dont even waste your time replying folks

relaxed

Kenring wrote: »

Yes it's happening the way we said, given a 1-3 day leeway. This is the August thread I started. The other one was closed by mods because it became abusive.

Hi ken,

Great to hear there might be some good weather inbound, I might book a weeks holidays, dust down the surf board and air the tent.

I am a bit confused though, as you have forecast very warm days around 7th, 21st, 29th-31st and 24-28th, with plus minus 3 days leeway.

What dates do you think would suit me best?

How many days do you think the good weather will last?

dopolahpec

Models firming up on a fine end to August. High pressure trending more and more in FI. With some lovely stuff altogether on the 0z ECM

JM Skipton

dopolahpec wrote: »

Models firming up on a fine end to August. High pressure trending more and more in FI. With some lovely stuff altogether on the 0z ECM

Agree, just viewed the latest charts and it appears that from 21/22/23 Aug HP seems to be the order of the day again. Unsettled until then however, but in saying that unsettled conditions this summer have far outweighed anything the last 6 summers have thrown at us.

mickger844posts

JM Skipton wrote: »

Agree, just viewed the latest charts and it appears that from 21/22/23 Aug HP seems to be the order of the day again. Unsettled until then however, but in saying that unsettled conditions this summer have far outweighed anything the last 6 summers have thrown at us.

Looking like a very pleasant final third to August with the models continuing the theme of high pressure building next week. ECM and GFS on board.

pistolpetes11

Anything not to do with August's weather has been deleted

Red Pepper

mickger844posts wrote: »

Looking like a very pleasant final third to August with the models continuing the theme of high pressure building next week. ECM and GFS on board.

I am off for the next 2 weeks so bring it on. My wetsuit has lost it's urine smell from the last hot spell but I am looking forward to lots of surfing and snorkelling over the final 2 weeks of August. Mid-20s will do just fine!

relaxed

Looks like a very wet day Thursday for all regions, according to met eireann after the 9 o'clock news.

Kenring

Hottest 24th-28th, as originally stated.

relaxed

Kenring wrote: »

Hottest 24th-28th, as originally stated.

Your original post said very warm days around 29th-31st

Kenring

relaxed wrote: »

Your original post said very warm days around 29th-31st

All my posts have called for hot weather in last week of August. That was wriiten here in July. There is a 1-3 day leeway in all forecasting. Other models etc now appear to agree with that suggestion.

relaxed

Kenring wrote: »

All my posts have called for hot weather in last week of August. That was wriiten here in July. There is a 1-3 day leeway in all forecasting. Other models etc now appear to agree with that suggestion.

You should read what you said in your first post. Very warm days around 7th, 21st and 29th-31st. Nowhere did you originally state hottest in late August and nowhere did you originally state that this hottest spell would fall on 24th-28th.

downonthefarm

is the gulf stream goin on holidays for the winter?

Kenring

relaxed wrote: »

You should read what you said in your first post. Very warm days around 7th, 21st and 29th-31st. Nowhere did you originally state hottest in late August and nowhere did you originally state that this hottest spell would fall on 24th-28th.

"Relaxed", try to stay more relaxed. Forecast predictions are trends. In my outlooks the last 10 days of August were always going to bring a return of hotter days. I even have a high pressure chart of it on my website. About three days of those days should be warmer than 25C.

partay pooper

Anyone venture to forecast the weather for Electric Picnic in Stradbally Laois, 30th of August to 2nd Sept? Cheers folks. ..........Perhaps the week before as well so I can gauge if I need to buy new wellies.

Kenring

partay pooper wrote: »

Anyone venture to forecast the weather for Electric Picnic in Stradbally Laois, 30th of August to 2nd Sept? Cheers folks. ..........Perhaps the week before as well so I can gauge if I need to buy new wellies.

You won't need wellies, nor for the week before.

Akrasia

Kenring wrote: »

All my posts have called for hot weather in last week of August. That was wriiten here in July. There is a 1-3 day leeway in all forecasting. Other models etc now appear to agree with that suggestion.

What Ken is doing is obvious.

He's making loads of predictions scattered around the calender with a '1-3 day leeway'

This means if he says the 7th of august will be hot, he can claim credit if any day between the 4th of august and the 10th of august is hot.

He has already predicted hot weather around the 21st of august, he's not talking about that anymore because the weather models aren't that promising, so he's now focusing on 'the last week of august' which, given his '1-3 day leeway actually means the last 10 days of august and the first 3 days of september. Any hot days in this 2 week period and Ken will claim a hit.

If it rains for the 2 weeks but some places in ireland show warm temperatures, he will claim a hit.

If everywhere in ireland is wet and cold, he will claim he is only 85% accurate and he can't be right all of the time

Ken, you have just told someone not to bring wellies to Electric Picnic.

If it rains on Stradbally on that weekend, will you admit failure?

Kenring

Akrasia wrote: »

What Ken is doing is obvious.
He's making loads of predictions scattered around the calender with a '1-3 day leeway'
This means if he says the 7th of august will be hot, he can claim credit if any day between the 4th of august and the 10th of august is hot.
He's now focusing on 'the last week of august' which, given his '1-3 day leeway actually means the last 10 days of august and the first 3 days of september. Any hot days in this 2 week period and Ken will claim a hit.
If it rains for the 2 weeks but some places in ireland show warm temperatures, he will claim a hit.
If everywhere in ireland is wet and cold, he will claim he is only 85% accurate and he can't be right all of the time
Ken, you have just told someone not to bring wellies to Electric Picnic.
If it rains on Stradbally on that weekend, will you admit failure?

Another round of Ken Ring-bashing? Okay, bring it on. Yes I've said don't bring wellies. The question was asked. I answered it. If he/she doesn't bring them and it rains or brings them and it is dry, will the world really end?

relaxed

Kenring wrote: »

I would definitely not recommend that! The window between 4th-5th is too small, given the 24-hr error in all forecasting. Plus, I have showers possible for Cork 5th-13th. If it was me I'd plan to be doing it from the 13th onwards. You should have at least a week of dry then. cheers

Hard to see where the dry weather ken promised to the farmer with 74 acres to cut will come from this week looking at met eireanns latest forecasts.

I also note ken previously had 24hr error which has now been replaced by 1-3 day error.

sam34

can we please have an end to the sniping between ken and those who question his methods. the whole issue is something the local mods need to take a look at overall, but for now, no more sniping/baiting/taking digs at etc.

no further warnings- bans will be next.

dopolahpec

Might be an idea to set up another more neutral thread to discuss August weather that isn't dominated with all this twoing and froing about Ken Ring. TI'm finding this petty stuff a major deterrent to be honest.

Kenring

relaxed wrote: »

Hard to see where the dry weather ken promised to the farmer with 74 acres to cut will come from this week looking at met eireanns latest forecasts.

I also note ken previously had 24hr error which has now been replaced by 1-3 day error.

I welcome moderation for anti-Ken Ring posts, but as this comment stands I am obliged to address it.
I did not promise any farmer anything. I have always maintained the first half of July and the second half of August would be the best weather of summer. We are just entering into that period now.

whitebriar

Kenring wrote: »

Yes I've said don't bring wellies. The question was asked. I answered it. If he/she doesn't bring them and it rains or brings them and it is dry, will the world really end?

Nope.

But the world will have told you (again),if it rains, that your forecasting methods do not work and therefore not something to be relied on,unlike other met services that work with technology.


Basically,people depending on the weather for what they do should know we have an august climate here,we do know the type of weather possible in that month.We do not know too far in advance what precisely it will be,but usually we can inside a week make a good stab at it,which is plenty for farmers.