August weather ONLY MOD NOTE : #213

compsys

How about everyone just ignores Ken completely and we get back to talking about the weather?

In my opinion Ken talks the biggest load of complete nonsense and should simply be ignored. When his weather predictions don't come to pass and he's challenged on them he then simply lies which is wrong.

His predictions are so wide-ranging, and because they're subject to this new three-day rule, he can try pretend that everything he 'predicts' actually comes true.

And I'm not just basing this on what I've read here. I've heard some of his interviews with Today FM and the range of possibilities he gives in each 'forecast' are so wide as to make them utterly meaningless.

Anyone, looks like the Azore High is making another push north next week. Let's hope we get another final taste of summer.

Kenring

compsys wrote: »

How about everyone just ignores Ken completely and we get back to talking about the weather?

In my opinion Ken talks the biggest load of complete nonsense and should simply be ignored. When his weather predictions don't come to pass and he's challenged on them he then simply lies which is wrong.

His predictions are so wide-ranging, and because they're subject to this new three-day rule, he can try pretend that everything he 'predicts' actually comes true.

And I'm not just basing this on what I've read here. I've heard some of his interviews with Today FM and the range of possibilities he gives in each 'forecast' are so wide as to make them utterly meaningless.

Anyone, looks like the Azore High is making another push north next week. Let's hope we get another final taste of summer.

I only write for those who find my suggestions useful, so would be most delighted if the rest ignored me.

relaxed

Kenring wrote: »

I welcome moderation for anti-Ken Ring posts, but as this comment stands I am obliged to address it.
I did not promise any farmer anything. I have always maintained the first half of July and the second half of August would be the best weather of summer. We are just entering into that period now.

To be honest I suspect you are just trolling at this stage. You said mostly dry 12th-20th but when that becomes implausible its suddenly the second half of August for the good weather.

If anybody else kept posting this rubbish they would probably have been banned for trolling long ago.

sam34

one-week bans have been handed out to those 4 posters who ignored the crystal clear mod-instruction on the previous page. don't say ye weren't warned.

everyone else-back on topic please, and the previous instruction still stands. there is to be no more discussion of ken's methods here, or arguing with him etc.

Downdog

relaxed wrote: »

To be honest I suspect you are just trolling at this stage. You said mostly dry 12th-20th but when that becomes implausible its suddenly the second half of August for the good weather.

If anybody else kept posting this rubbish they would probably have been banned for trolling long ago.

Seems Ken did say that
scroll to bottom
http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ireland-to-bask-in-Med-like-sunshine-as-The-Gathering-gathers-pace-in-July-185488342.html

madds

Can anyone provide a forecast of the weather this coming weekend please? Met.ie are reporting heavy showers and strong winds on Saturday which will clear as we head through Sunday. Is this an accurate forecast of what we can expect this coming weekend? Thanks.

Hoochiemama

Also, whats the story with next week?? Is there some warm weather coming?

dopolahpec

madds wrote: »

Can anyone provide a forecast of the weather this coming weekend please? Met.ie are reporting heavy showers and strong winds on Saturday which will clear as we head through Sunday. Is this an accurate forecast of what we can expect this coming weekend? Thanks.

http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2055579971/253/#post85985560

Popoutman

sam34 wrote: »

everyone else-back on topic please, and the previous instruction still stands. there is to be no more discussion of ken's methods here, or arguing with him etc.

Safest thing for me I think is to /ignore the poster(s) that are causing the problem, and taking a much better look at my own responses in case it is possible to misinterpret them as something I didn't intend to.

And I do apologise to the mods if my posts have caused hassle for them. I didn't intend that!

Anyway, checking Accuweather's 45 day outlook, they're suggesting some rain on the 23rd, and showers from the 26th to the 29th, temps 16 to 20 most of the time with three warmer days 21st/22nd/23rd.

In other words pretty average.

Link here:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/ie/limerick/207621/month/207621?view=table

Elmer Blooker

23.7c easily the warmest day since the heatwave and it feels it too.

ThaitaniumM

Spanish plume evident on the GFS 18Z from the 21st onwards.

rainbowdash

ThaitaniumM wrote: »

Spanish plume evident on the GFS 18Z from the 21st onwards.

I hope so, because there is some amount of rain falling today!

Hoochiemama

Im having an outdoor party on the 24th and my nerves are SHATTERED waiting to see what the weather is going to be like :pac:

maquiladora

Looking like a pleasant mostly dry, warm spell kicking in around Tuesday/Wednesday. Badly needed after the misery of today.

partay pooper

maquiladora wrote: »

Looking like a pleasant mostly dry, warm spell kicking in around Tuesday/Wednesday. Badly needed after the misery of today.

I'm not very up on these charts but does that say it will be dry and warm the weekend 30th and 31st?? Thanks

maquiladora

partay pooper wrote: »

I'm not very up on these charts but does that say it will be dry and warm the weekend 30th and 31st?? Thanks

Thats too far out to say, the models are not at all reliable at that range. You'll have a better idea in about a weeke's time.

Red Pepper

How is next week looking? Sunday 18th to Sunday 25th?
What would be the best days during those dates?

maquiladora

Red Pepper wrote: »

How is next week looking? Sunday 18th to Sunday 25th?
What would be the best days during those dates?

Weather looks like improving in the second half of next week, but as always things can change.

mickger844posts

This evenings runs continue the theme of High Pressure building from middle of next week with the ECM now prolonging the spell into the weekend of next week which wasn't the case on the 0Z. Heatwave 2 The Return anyone

Deank

mickger844posts wrote: »

This evenings runs continue the theme of High Pressure building from middle of next week with the ECM now prolonging the spell into the weekend of next week which wasn't the case on the 0Z. Heatwave 2 The Return anyone

Being it, what's the percentage chance of this becoming reality Mick?

Thargor

mickger844posts wrote: »

This evenings runs continue the theme of High Pressure building from middle of next week with the ECM now prolonging the spell into the weekend of next week which wasn't the case on the 0Z. Heatwave 2 The Return anyone

And isnt the moon supposed to have entered the right quadrant for hot weather by then aswell? ¬_¬

Deank

Thargor wrote: »

And isnt the moon supposed to have entered the right quadrant for hot weather by then aswell? ¬_¬

Mars and Jupiter are well aligned and their tides are dispelling magnetic rays that will effect the outer hemisphere over the North Atlantic sending good weather our way

mickger844posts

Deank wrote: »

Being it, what's the percentage chance of this becoming reality Mick?

In fairness to the models they done a pretty good job of predicting our last heatwave in advance so hopefully they are right this time too. To put a percentage on it happening is hard but i'll throw a 60% out there for fun.

Deank

mickger844posts wrote: »

In fairness to the models they done a pretty good job of predicting our last heatwave in advance so hopefully they are right this time too. To put a percentage on it happening is hard but i'll throw a 60% out there for fun.

From looking at the last heatwave models and comparing to these ones I would have been a bit braver and put a 75% on it, but at least we're in for some more sunshine, all in all it's been one of the better summers no matter what the naysayers say.

Akrasia

Deank wrote: »

From looking at the last heatwave models and comparing to these ones I would have been a bit braver and put a 75% on it, but at least we're in for some more sunshine, all in all it's been one of the better summers no matter what the naysayers say.

So you're saying it's definitely gonna be hot and dry?
Excellent



(wait, is this a ramping thread?)

maquiladora

The 0Z GFS really is very nice from around Wednesday until the end of the run. I wouldn't call it a heatwave, but it a very nice period of low to mid 20s in places, if that came off. 0Z ECM is more complex and not as warm though. UKMO doesn't look as warm at 120-144 either. GEM shows a short warm spell, only 2-3 days, but at times very warm.

mickger844posts

maquiladora wrote: »

The 0Z GFS really is very nice from around Wednesday until the end of the run. I wouldn't call it a heatwave, but it a very nice period of low to mid 20s in places, if that came off. 0Z ECM is more complex and not as warm though. UKMO doesn't look as warm at 120-144 either. GEM shows a short warm spell, only 2-3 days, but at times very warm.

Yes Maq the ECM 0Z a bit of a mess really and hard to know where its going but latest GFS 06z is great with High Pressure dominating until the end of August. The ECM not being on board is a worry though.

Duiske

mickger844posts wrote: »

Yes Maq the ECM 0Z a bit of a mess really and hard to know where its going but latest GFS 06z is great with High Pressure dominating until the end of August. The ECM not being on board is a worry though.

GFS has turned into a bit of a nightmare for those expecting a fine settled spell. It shows the high barely flirting with Ireland for a couple of days and has low pressure on top of us by next Friday. ECM is much better, with the high moving up from SW over us for the weekend. Middle ground probably likely, with low to NW giving showers for Western areas. Drier and sunnier in East. Heatwave nowhere.

mickger844posts

Duiske wrote: »

GFS has turned into a bit of a nightmare for those expecting a fine settled spell. It shows the high barely flirting with Ireland for a couple of days and has low pressure on top of us by next Friday. ECM is much better, with the high moving up from SW over us for the weekend. Middle ground probably likely, with low to NW giving showers for Western areas. Drier and sunnier in East. Heatwave nowhere.

Disappointing about turn by the GFS in the last few runs. ECM taking over the mantle as the better scenario. Interesting to see which if any are correct.

Birdnuts

mickger844posts wrote: »

Disappointing about turn by the GFS in the last few runs. ECM taking over the mantle as the better scenario. Interesting to see which if any are correct.

ECM isn't great either this evening:(