Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

maquiladora

Less than 1,000 j/kg CAPE and LI no better than -4 should mean we probably won't see any severe thunderstorms here, but it's enough that we should see some isolated cells at least. Fairly widespread risk, southwestern to northern areas looking most likely.

Watch out for more big storms in England and France later.

Elmer Blooker

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Look at all that action over the UK.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb



This. feckin. island. :P

what's new? It happens all the time.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=84382767

Storm 10

Great lightning shots over London last night one hit the Eye

http://news.sky.com/story/1119222/weather-heatwave-to-end-with-torrential-rain

highdef

This streaming webcam complete with audio should be interesting in a few minutes - http://www.abbeyroad.com/crossing

Lenin Skynard

highdef wrote: »

This streaming webcam complete with audio should be interesting in a few minutes - http://www.abbeyroad.com/crossing

Must be seriously frustrating driving on that road with the amount of people stopping for photos on the pedestrian crossing. I've watched it for no more than five minutes and three groups of people have already done it :pac:

maquiladora

Lenin Skynard wrote: »

Must be seriously frustrating driving on that road with the amount of people stopping for photos on the pedestrian crossing. I've watched it for no more than five minutes and three groups of people have already done it :pac:

It was even worse Yesterday. They were taking so long you'd swear they were walking Across The Universe. I can't Imagine what its like having to drive that road Eight Days A Week.

Larbre34

A few nice downpours through the northwest midlands ahead of that front, no sparks though

Larbre34

Thundery downpour means a short intense convective shower of rain/hail, of an hourly rate of 30+ or so mm/hr, which may or may not produce some thunder and lightning.

A thunderstorm is a period of thunder and lightning to which the rain/hail is incidental, you might get drenched or the ground could remain dry

dacogawa

Lenin Skynard wrote: »

Must be seriously frustrating driving on that road with the amount of people stopping for photos on the pedestrian crossing. I've watched it for no more than five minutes and three groups of people have already done it :pac:

I've been one of those people :eek: sorry...

Oscar Bravo

Very dark with heavy rain just East of Knock Airport at the moment.

dacogawa

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

They just had one at the north west tip of Mayo

F-Stop

maquiladora wrote: »

It was even worse Yesterday. They were taking so long you'd swear they were walking Across The Universe. I can't Imagine what its like having to drive that road Eight Days A Week.

Let it Be, would you?

hotwhiskey

Really disappointed by today's outcome so far and there's nothing in the forecast or modules to lift my confidence one bit. The cap is not great for us compared to Britain, pretty poor. Yes we will get a few cells here and there but hit and miss.

Strike rate over the UK hour ago was at 1500 dropped down to under 1200 now. Over 24.500 strikes there in the past 16 hours that's impressive.

whitebriar

maquiladora wrote: »

Well the Met Office rainfall prediction model from last night showing a huge area of heavy precip over the midlands at 10am....was very wrong. Even hi-res models like UK4 can really struggle with convective showers.

I don't rate the accuracy of t24 but t12 is usually good enough to know whether to carry an umbrella.
That said,the rain is there now albeit 2hrs late.
Not bad in all fairness.

old hippy

We needed it after temperatures reached 35 degrees yesterday. Phew! It feels a lot less close, now.

Rikand

dacogawa wrote: »

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

They just had one at the north west tip of Mayo

A second strike in Ballina

Storm 10

Galway Bay FM transmitter in Abbeyknockmoy got hit by lightning this morning and put it out of action

Elmer Blooker

looking at the clouds I now think there will be something after all today, theres a lovely cnb now north west of Dublin. Maybe later?

Larbre34

A colleague in Glasgow on business tells me it is currently raining biblically in that region, flash flooding on the streets of the old west end.

Looks like all of Ireland will at least getting a dampening in the next 2 hours.

Larbre34

Met É are putting more detail on the progress of the breakdown. Weds night looking tasty for us Dubs. Do people agree with them?



Outlook

Wednesday night will see a band of rain advancing northwards across the country, giving local thunderstorms and possibly large accumulations in eastern counties. The heaviest of the rain will reach Ulster by Thursday morning, and will then soon clear to sunshine and isolated showers. The rest of Thursday will be warm with light to moderate, southerly breezes. Friday and the weekend will remain fairly warm in most places, with light to moderate, mainly southeasterly winds; there will be a good deal of dry, bright weather each day but showers will occur from time to time, with Sunday likely to have the most frequent shower activity. The early days of next week will bring further showers or more prolonged spells of rain; it may be quite windy at times also and it will feel a good deal fresher.

redsteveireland

Storm 10 wrote: »

Galway Bay FM transmitter in Abbeyknockmoy got hit by lightning this morning and put it out of action

How will i get the death notices now?

The sky is clearing here now with a little bit of convection kicking off.

maquiladora

Depends on the model you look at and which run.

GFS has heavy rain in the west/northwest and south coast Wednesday night with the east staying mostly dry.

The previous run of the same model didn't have that monsoon off the south coast.

Sometimes you'd be better ignoring predicted precipitation until the day arrives.

OldRio

Heavens opened up in Leitrim.
A small rumble of thunder and then rain and plenty of it.
Wonderful smell in the air.

Iancar29

Larbre34 wrote: »

Met É are putting more detail on the progress of the breakdown. Weds night looking tasty for us Dubs. Do people agree with them?



Outlook

Wednesday night will see a band of rain advancing northwards across the country, giving local thunderstorms and possibly large accumulations in eastern counties. The heaviest of the rain will reach Ulster by Thursday morning, and will then soon clear to sunshine and isolated showers. The rest of Thursday will be warm with light to moderate, southerly breezes. Friday and the weekend will remain fairly warm in most places, with light to moderate, mainly southeasterly winds; there will be a good deal of dry, bright weather each day but showers will occur from time to time, with Sunday likely to have the most frequent shower activity. The early days of next week will bring further showers or more prolonged spells of rain; it may be quite windy at times also and it will feel a good deal fresher.

maquiladora wrote: »

Depends on the model you look at and which run.

GFS has heavy rain in the west/northwest and south coast Wednesday night with the east staying mostly dry.

The previous run of the same model didn't have that monsoon off the south coast.

Sometimes you'd be better ignoring predicted precipitation until the day arrives.

I agree with Maq , have noticed that band from Sunday evening's models , changing all the time.... ill wont be to upbeat about it until at least wednesday 12 z comes out considering how bad the consensus between the models has been like so far.

Would love to have access to Harmoine , or whatever way its spelt ha

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

I agree with Maq , have noticed that band from Sunday evening's models , changing all the time.... ill wont be to upbeat about it until at least wednesday 12 z comes out considering how bad the consensus between the models has been like so far.

Would love to have access to Harmoine , or whatever way its spelt ha

Also, that could just be heavy rain without much or any of a thundery component to it, if thats the case - it can sod off!

dacogawa

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

A second strike in Ballina

3 more strikes 15 mins ago, the radar seems to be bubbling up nicely too...

force eleven

OldRio wrote: »

Heavens opened up in Leitrim.
A small rumble of thunder and then rain and plenty of it.
Wonderful smell in the air.

That distinctive smell of rain after a dry spell actually has a name;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrichor

Learn something new everyday, but it's a smell you never forget.

maquiladora

dacogawa wrote: »

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb



3 more strikes 15 mins ago, the radar seems to be bubbling up nicely too...

Prime conditions should be around 3-5pm if anything is going to happen.

lolie

Fairly big downpour here. Big cracks of thunder a AFTER it passed as usual, about 5 loud ones so far.

maquiladora

Brightening up a bit here in the south, convection getting going. I can see some brilliant white cumulus shooting up against the blue sky. Hopefully storms in the making for you guys further north.