Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

maquiladora

vickers209 wrote: »

How are things looking for today?

Things should kick off in the next few hours if the models and forecasters are right. North midlands, western, northwestern areas most likely to see something.

No real change since last night.

Harps

A big difference between the two main hi-res models for today, HiRLAM showing a few heavy showers later including a heavy one right where I am yet NAE has nothing at all happening until tomorrow.

Iancar29

And the WRF is like a mix of the 2 going half way... :rolleyes:

maquiladora

The differences in the model outputs show the difficulty in trying to predict convective showers. Satellite and radar images are more useful on the day.

Iancar29

....

whitebriar

Lol

I've had Bbc radio Devon,on 801khz am on in the car here for the last hour in Wicklow an d no sferic crackle at all,not even one! And you can usually hear them as far away as France on am radio,low but constant.
They get very loud when less than a 100 miles away.
So there's nothing,nada,nothing at the moment.
Yesterday,there were plenty sparks on the radio,even if cells were doa.

Iancar29

whitebriar wrote: »

Lol

I've had Bbc radio Devon,on 801khz am on in the car here for the last hour in Wicklow an d no sferic crackle at all,not even one! And you can usually hear them as far away as France on am radio,low but constant.
They get very loud when less than a 100 miles away.
So there's nothing,nada,nothing at the moment.
Yesterday,there were plenty sparks on the radio,even if cells were doa.

Something im gonna test out later , i THINK our radio downstairs does am still ha.

Don't worry , something has GOT to pop soon .....

fryup

Iancar...where did you get that gif ^^

Iancar29

www.Google.com

maquiladora

Yep, not a whole lot going on north of France at the moment.

A bust so far, but we'll see what the evening brings.

pad199207

Some visible cumulus here now with very sticky conditions. Dp near 20c now

highdef

I'm at home today as am unwell. I've just been out in the garden to get some fresh air and I can tell you that the humidity is really high. I'm right on the border between sun and medium/high clouds and with the temperatures so high round here combined with the humidity, I'm amazed something hasn't gone bang. It's currently 25.3c with 75% humidity and a dew point of 20.6c! - The temp is generally hovering between 24 and 25 but with the sun out a while now, it's still climbing.

pad199207

Cumulus just now

highdef

Oh that looks good....a least there is some convection beginning!!! I'll keep an eye out round here too

pad199207

highdef wrote: »

Oh that looks good....a least there is some convection beginning!!! I'll keep an eye out round here too

Yeah seem to be more organized to my north atm in a kind of line

redsteveireland

A bit of a development off the clare coast heading towards the Aran Islands according to met eireann radar, Shannon will probably go down soon though.

highdef

That would make sense as I am north of you! Some definite convection getting going here now. Very disorganised at the moment but the sky is getting that "summer thunderstorm" look to my immediate south and west. temp is currently 24.4, DP 20.1 and humidity 77%

Here's some convection just to my west:

And here's the view to the south:

Storm 10

Waiting,,,waiting,,,,,waiting

maquiladora

This is around the peak time now for instability yet even in the UK things don't seem to be getting going, certainly not a good sign for our more limited chances today.

pad199207

Line of convection that is north of me is now starting to get organized now with some precip building

Larbre34

BBC Weather were talking about plumes and violent storms this morning a lot, but I dont think they were expecting them to kick off in earnest until tomorrow, after a peak in the heat today. I wouldnt be holding out for any significant action in Britain or Ireland today

Iancar29

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qbQQDI67OM

Iancar29

Anyone else... HATING the french right now? lol

sunbabe08

Any chances of any activity in the youghal area?

tylercollins

Iancar29 wrote: »

Anyone else... HATING the french right now? lol

Always have :eek:

maquiladora

sunbabe08 wrote: »

Any chances of any activity in the youghal area?

Not today anyway.

redsteveireland

Iancar29 wrote: »

Anyone else... HATING the french right now? lol

Amazing to watch on sat24, the way it developed out of nothing.:eek:

maquiladora

Well a sferic has finally shown up in southern England.

Iancar29

redsteveireland wrote: »

Amazing to watch on sat24, the way it developed out of nothing.:eek:

Yep , thats the oul loaded gun situation from it breaking the cap.

Heres a photo from Caen that i just found on twitter

patneve2

Lovely cells over France!! Had some amazing action here in Rome yesterday: medium sized hail, deluge of rain and 70 km/hr gusts of wind. Most thundery summer in years, already at least 14 days of thunder from the start of June. Unfortunately temps looking to skyrocket over the weekend, 37/38 degrees a certainty at this stage