AUTUMN WEATHER 2013

dopolahpec

12z GFS showing multiple vigorous lows hitting us in coming weeks. Chance of storms so.

maquiladora

GFS FI with an early November cold snap from a toppler.

Iancar29

That would be one to bank indeed if people in the North wanted to see their first proper chances of SN**

Rock Lesnar

What has the East coast done to deserve all this rain so early into the Autumn/Winter. looking at the raintoday website, the west of ireland and england are looking dry and us here in the east are in the middle of it all getting lashed out of it, i go from seeing no rain for most of the summer to this, parts of the fields around here are already saturated :(:(:(.

Iancar29

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

What has the East coast done to deserve all this rain so early into the Autumn/Winter. looking at the raintoday website, the west of ireland and england are looking dry and us here in the east are in the middle of it all getting lashed out of it, i go from seeing no rain for most of the summer to this, parts of the fields around here are already saturated :(:(:(.

To be fair we had it fairly decent this summer , so no real complaining from me anyways.

The jet stream would be a suspsect in giving the east the most rain atm with it being far south and then rising back up over us.

Rock Lesnar

Any sign of the Jet Stream shifting any time soon is it that impossible to predict?

rickdangerouss

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Any sign of the Jet Stream shifting any time soon is it that impossible to predict?

Short answer is maybe not.

http://www.netweather.tv/?action=jetstream;sess=

Thats a great site and great for the links too.

ophelia75

Not joking,Evelyn Cusack mentioned the word"mild" 12 times in the weather forecast at 18:50.yawnfest!!

Elmer Blooker

leahyl wrote: »

Another boring mild winter ahead? Hopefully not

I wouldn't be too worried about this mild weather and what it means for the coming winter - the warmest November temperature ever recorded in Ireland was 20c on the 4th in 1946

Tindie

I just heard about Hampshire was hit by Tornado 8am this morning
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hayling-island-in-hampshire-hit-by-tornado-8892541.html

Sorry if this is the wrong place to post this!

Gonzo

have to say getting very sick of all the rain, looks like another mild and very wet week to come, infact most of Europe and even towards Moscow looks very mild for the next week at least.

Nothing to worry about tho, a very mild introduction to winter often bodes well for post-christmas whiteness! My sweet spot for snow is usually end of December-mid February,

Iancar29

Another friday repeat tomorrow :rolleyes:

maquiladora

I love the GFS ensembles, anything is possible.

maquiladora

It's a long way off and probably won't happen, but worth keeping an eye on just in case, since two models are showing something similar for the same day :

12Z GEM :


12Z ECM, same idea but further north :

dopolahpec

Models becoming more and more firm on the idea of October going out with a real roar. Some exceptionally stormy solutions on tonight's ECM.

Kenring

dopolahpec wrote: »

Models becoming more and more firm on the idea of October going out with a real roar. Some exceptionally stormy solutions on tonight's ECM.

I agree. Heavy falls this week and next week, and around 3rd-4th of November conditions may be very squally but mild. Most of November's rain is expected to be in the east. But November should be a mild month with little chance of snow. The last few days of November may bring cold rain, hail, sleet or some flurries.

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

It's a long way off and probably won't happen, but worth keeping an eye on just in case, since two models are showing something similar for the same day :

12Z GEM :


12Z ECM, same idea but further north :

Just to add to this, the GFS too now showing something similar for the same day.

pad199207

Now that will have to be watched this week! Especially considering that the jet is sending the lows in a more southerly trajectory

dopolahpec

ECM 0z updated and showing a rough rough end to the month too.

maquiladora

12Z GFS isn't messin around. Look at the min pressure.

Tae laidir

I hope you're not running the Dublin Marathon. :eek:

Clonmel1000

Didn't the daily mail promise us -20 temperatures in November.......

pad199207

I remember a similar situation last year or maybe the year before where there was a big storm like that and Mark Vogan was on his biggest ever ramp about how severe it will be over the UK and Ireland but in the end it was nowhere near as strong as the models wanted it to be!

vickers209

Just back from dundrum and seen the gritters out spreading around bray bypass.
Can defo feel the the chill in air 5c at midnight on car temp gauge

On a other note in dundrum town centre tonight they are installing the outdoor chritmas lights. Had them on testing them the other half got all excited when seen them

Villain

Some flooding possible tonight in the South East

MiNdGaM3

An update to my Autumn forecast due to slight changes in the teleconnection trends in the last 2 months. You can see the old forecast here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=86145872&postcount=23

I'm adjusting the November outlook (despite what most models and most LRFs suggest!) to a slightly more settled one.



It appears that things will begin unsettled, but I think this will gradually change and a mid Atlantic ridge exerts are growing influence during the month.

Temperatures will most likely be slightly above average, perhaps by up to 1C.
Rainfall I think will be average or slightly below, despite a wet start.

Tindie

Anyone got chart for this weekend as it's diwali on Sunday

flutered

is a dry week to ten days with some frost sometines during the month of november tradittional

Kenring

Looks like plenty of squally weather around, associated with the coming perigeal new moon. This should abate around midweek. Then for much of the country November should see fairly settled weather, until more heavy falls arrive in the fourth week. Then 26-29 could be very cold and frosty.

mike65

This conveyor belt of westerly ****e will continue for as far as the models can predict it looks like.