AUTUMN WEATHER 2013

jackstapleton

Too early?

Rikand

yes - come back in a month at least

dexter647

jackstapleton wrote: »

Too early?

No I don't think so considering last years winter thread started around this time last year..:)
I'm cautiously optimistic about this coming autumn based solely on my psychic abilities:D...I see a very hot and humid start to autumn with many a spanish plume event rudely interrupting those family bbq's where everyone has to run inside and sit on the porch and then finish off there beers while watching natures fireworks take hold.:)
Things will then drastically cool down towards late september which will take everyone by surprise, and will mean that dexter647 will not have to cut the fcuking grass as much:D...
This trend will continue on into october with most of us seeing our first snowfall by the months end. After that who knows.....:eek:

Lucreto

At least it is Autumn 2013 and not a Winter 2013/2014 thread.

It was renamed last year so I can't find it but the year before it started the 17th of June. It is more or less downhill from here, shorter days await.

M.T. Cranium

partly cloudy with occasional showers

delw

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

partly cloudy with occasional showers

Is that for summer or autumn? :D

Geomy

All I want for the Autumn is offshore winds or breeze combining with medium to big Atlantic swells :-)

Last winter had some epic surfing conditions :-)

jackstapleton

Thanks for all the responses. Guess it is too early

M.T. Cranium

Summer is partly sunny with showers.

Tindie

No, Not early at all, I was thinking of starting the winter thread lol

I don't were but it was late last night, I try to find it again, I was reading there will snow as Early as late October, Nov and December being really cold and very snowy, big chance of white Xmas for Newcastle.

leahyl

Aaaaaaw I love hearing the word "snow" again...sniff!

Elmer Blooker

jackstapleton wrote: »

Too early?

maybe not? It's kind of dark for five to ten, even the high cirrus are no longer lit up at this time like it was until very recently - a timely reminder that the season is moving on, but at least the chilly autumnal nights are still a long way off.

Lucreto

The hot weather has made the trees lose there leaves with the lack of rain. It made it feel like Autumn.

I just spent the evening removing all of the dried leaves in the garden.

MiNdGaM3

I put together an early Autumn forecast on netweather yesterday, so here's an Ireland orientated version of it!


I decided to use the analogous years to create a simple Autumn (SON) forecast, in the same vein as the summer forecast seen here, which appeared to capture the overall pattern so far this summer very well.

As it is quite rudimentary, it will once again, just be looking at the months general pattern, without mention of specific weeks or events. This time, I will though, try to include the rainfall and temperature elements also.

Anyway, this time around, I used 9 different criteria in order to find years common to this so far, these were.

1. An AO that has generally gone from -ve in Winter to +ve in Spring and Summer
2. A NAO that has generally gone from -ve in Winter to +ve in Spring and Summer
3. ENSO values (based of the Nino 3.4 region) that were close to neutral at Summer's end and into Autumn
4. Northern hemisphere snow cover below average in August, slightly average in September and slightly above average in October.
5. QBO that started out the year -ve but has risen to strong +ve values in Summer
6. Years with an 11 year mean sunspot count below 70
7. An AMO that averaged between 0 and 0.25 for the first 6 months of the year
8. A PDO that has averaged between 0 and -0.5 for the first 6 months of the year
9. Years with September sea ice area below 4 million km2.

These are the number of matched criteria at the top, and the years in the columns.


Just like for the summer forecast, 2006 had the most matches, though only 7 this time compared to 8 in summer.

For the forecast, I'll be using the 5, 6 and 7 matches and assigning a weighting to them in the NCEP reanalysis charts. So the years with five matches will be included in the composite maps once, 6 matches included twice and 7 matches included 3 times.

Here are the 500hPa geopotential height anomaly charts, which are a good indicator of where we'll see the ridges and troughs (which, to a degree, indicate high and low pressure areas also).

First is September, then October, November and the Autumn average.


Below are the temperature anomalies, in the same order as above


Below are the precipitation anomalies


So for the forecast.

September
A Euro high is likely to be a strong feature of the month. This may bring about a more southerly airflow than normal, but with Ireland at the edge of its influence, we may be subject to Atlantic incursions and passing fronts, bringing heavy rainfall at times, resulting close to or above average rainfall overall, but especially to the north and west.Temperatures, though, should be close to or slightly above average.

October
October is likely to see an increased high pressure influence across the British Isles, producing spells of settled weather during month with below average rainfall and above average temperatures for most.

November
This month sees a change with a large trough centred towards the north of the British Isles and a strong ridge in the Atlantic. This may bring depressions down from the north west, impacting northern areas the most. The mid-Atlantic ridge may exert a slight influence on western Ireland also, reducing the rainfall anomalies here. Otherwise temperatures are likely to be close to average and rainfall above average.

Overall
There is a good signal for generally close to or average temperatures overall. Countrywide, rainfall looks like being close to average, but with a hint of slightly above average precip in the east and slightly below in the west.
As this is quite basic and just my second attempt at a LRF, if the strong signal for the Euro high turns out to be true, I'll be happy enough, and it will be something to work from. Just like the summer forecast caught the strong heights extending over us from Scandinavia.

Blizzard 2010

Mild and Changeable with a few good storms to throw into the mix. Arctic -analomously cold as per wunderground and others

pauldry

If August is Autumn as we told it was in school (rem summer used to be May, June, July) the end of it looks almost Julyesque if the weekend blustery showers go as planned... starting August 20th or 21st for at least and week and temperatures of 20 to 24c very likely.

September will be more changeable but warm with High Pressure featuring in the month too.

I would even stretch to say it could be one of the warmest Septembers on record!

Bold prediction indeed but life is all about being bold.

tylercollins

I see Mark Vogan has just released his Autumn 2013 forecast, but you have to pay to see it!

tylercollins

Anyone else noticed the leaves on trees starting to change color early this year?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

A slight colour change alright, the dreaded summer is nearly over, wooo !

tylercollins

It was pretty windy up here in Derry the last 12 hours or so, and this morning driving through the village, the amount of leaves on the ground just reminds you of an early October morning!

I read on here somewhere about the possibility of an early winter this year, this could be a sign that it may happen..

Tom Cruises Left Nut

tylercollins wrote: »

It was pretty windy up here in Derry the last 12 hours or so, and this morning driving through the village, the amount of leaves on the ground just reminds you of an early October morning!

I read on here somewhere about the possibility of an early winter this year, this could be a sign that it may happen..

I hope it does come early, really wasn't built for any kind of heat, the winter is a godsend !

mike65

You suck!

MiNdGaM3

Here's my finalised Autumn forecast, so just a slight change to last months version.


I used 8 different criteria based on the teleconnections and the trends they've exhibited in recent months, and checked each previous year, back to 1951 (except for sea ice, which only goes back to 1979) to see how many matches each year got with this.
Below are the different criteria used (I can give the exact numerical conditions used if anyone wants them)

1. Arctic Oscillation (AO). Condition - That there was a strong trend from a -ve Winter AO to a +ve Summer AO
2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Condition - Moderate trend from a -ve Winter AO to a +ve Summer AO
3. El Nino Souther Oscillation (ENSO). Condition - A slow trend from a moderately -ve ENSO value in Winter, to weak -ve values in Summer and neutral values in Autumn, based on the ENSO 3.4 region anomaly.
4. Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Condition - From -ve values at the beginning of the year to strong +ve values in Summer
5. Solar Activity, Sunspot Counts. Condition - Mean 11 year monthly sunspot count below 70
6. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Condition - January to July mean of between 0 and +0.3
7. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Condition - January to July mean of between 0 and -1.5.
8. Sea Ice Area (SIA). Condition - September SIA of less than 4 million km2

Of those criteria, 3 previous years matched 5 of them (2006, 2001 and 1969), while 4 years matched 4 criteria (2012, 2011, 2008, 2002).
So when creating the composite maps, the years with 5 matches were added twice and the years with 4 matches were added just once. All other years were excluded.



SEPTEMBER- General Pattern




September shows strong heights nearby, but centred slightly to our north and east. This would indicate a good deal of settled weather during the month, with more of an easterly flow than usual and a continuation of the +ve or near neutral NAO seen during the summer. The signal for +ve heights isn't very strong though, and so some unsetteld weather should be expected.

Temperatures are likely to be above the 81-10 average in most areas.
Rainfall is likely to be close to or slightly below average in general.



OCTOBER - General Pattern




October shows a good signal for strong heights to our south east, indicating a ridge into central and western Europe. This pattern may result in an increased southerly component to our weather. Conditions will be most settled toward the south east, with increased Atlantic influences further north and west.

Temperatures likely to be well above the 81-10 average for all areas in the southerly winds. Some very mild or even warm conditions could occur at times.
Rainfall is likely to be close to average overall.



NOVEMBER - General Pattern



Confidence at this range drops significantly. However, current indications are that November may see a change, with a strong signal for low heights to our north and ridging to the south of Greenland, while the Euro ridge weakens further south and east. This indicates that we will see spells of unsettled weather from the west and north west. With the strong Atlantic ridge, parts of western Ireland may see slightly more settled conditions at times.

Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly above average in most areas.
Rainfall is likely to be close to average in general, with western Ireland perhaps being slightly below average due to the influence of the Atlantic ridge.


Autumn Overall.
Best chance of long settled spells in September and October. A chance of a more general unsettled, westerly flow in November.
Temperature wise, a well above average Autumn overall.
Rainfall is predicted to be close to average overall. The west of Ireland, being the most likely to see below average rainfall.

Tindie

Weather out look have got the Autumn season outlook UK

September
Temperature: Above average
Precipitation: Close to or slightly above average
First half
A generally fine start to the month is expected with temperatures well above the season average, especially in the south. The mostly dry conditions are expected to last through the first week. Through the second week increasingly unsettled weather is expected to return from the west, with showers or longer spells of rain affecting all regions. Temperatures becoming close to the average.

Second half
The second half of the month looks like bringing a mixed bag of weather. Some warmer and drier interludes are likely, but also unsettled and windy spells of weather. Overall this period is likely to bring close to average conditions.


October
Temperature: Slightly above average
Precipitation: Close to average
First half
A reasonable start to the month is expected with temperatures climbing above the seasonal average. Possibly becoming rather warm for a time before the rather settled conditions gradually break and are replaced by increasingly wet and windy weather. Temperatures trending back towards the seasonal average later in the period.

Second half
Unsettled weather is likely for much of the time during the second half of the month and at times it could become very windy or stormy, especially in the north and west. Southern regions should continue to see drier interludes, but it is expected to be often unsettled. Temperatures mostly close to average.


November
Temperature: Slightly below average
Precipitation: Close to average
First half
A good deal of unsettled and windy weather bringing widespread rainfall and windy conditions at times, with the wettest weather likely in central and southern regions. Temperatures should often remain close to the seasonal average in the south, but colder in the north with an increasing risk of frost and sleet or snow over high ground in Scotland.

Second half
Unsettled and at times cold weather is expected to affect most of the country, with widespread showers or longer spells of rain. Possibly becoming cold in northern regions with a risk of snow. Wintry conditions could extend could extend south for a time with frost becoming widespread. Temperatures during this period are likely to be below the seasonal average.

Awesome, A cold end to November Happy about that, I just what to repeat of 2010 Winter at start and the end of year,

Elmer Blooker

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif

I'm sick of this bloody climate that we have to live in! You would have expected a decent day with a chart like this and not a gale and the permanent blanket of cloud that we live under.
edit: I decided to have a cup o' tea in the garden but had to come in it was so cold.

Elmer Blooker

^^^ that wind yesterday made complete s**t of my garden, flowers blown all over the place and that was with an anticyclone of 1034hpa just off the south coast.
I give up!
21c at Aberdeen at 0900 - remarkable!

very unusual that a chart like this can give such strong winds, there was a very strong gust here a few mins ago.

Joe Public

Storm in a tea cup!

DOCARCH

Looks like a quick change from Summer to (late) Autumn/Winter for Saturday...if Met E forecast verifies! :cool:

From Met E forecast:

At the moment it looks like Saturday will start wet and windy for much of Ulster, Connacht and Leinster with heavy falls of rain. It will feel quite cold with temperatures of only 10 to 13 degrees.

otherfrog

Any predictions for the first frost? I love that first stroll of the season, across crunching grass.

Lumi

otherfrog wrote: »

Any predictions for the first frost? I love that first stroll of the season, across crunching grass.

Met Eireann are forecasting a grass frost on Thursday in parts of the west

Thursday night will be quite cold with temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 degrees. It will be coolest in the west of the country, where some grass frost is possible

Kenring

Lumi wrote: »

Met Eireann are forecasting a grass frost on Thursday in parts of the west

Widespread frosts across Ireland for the remainder of this year are most unlikely before November. I am expecting frosts 4-8 November then 18-21st and a sudden downward plunge into subzeros from 27 November onwards.