AUTUMN WEATHER 2013

funt cucker

We had the fire lighting yesterday, I didn't envisage doing that until October at least. I'm 700asl so maybe that's the reason:D

briany

(Electric) Fire going here as well. Love it! Much prefer the colder weather. Can sleep properly with the windows closed but without being stuffy. Would leave it open a crack but the din those birds make sometimes can be an evil thing.

dopolahpec

Kenring wrote: »

Widespread frosts across Ireland for the remainder of this year are most unlikely before November. I am expecting frosts 4-8 November then 18-21st and a sudden downward plunge into subzeros from 27 November onwards.

Perceptive stuff, widespread frosts coming in December rather than October.

Kenring

dopolahpec wrote: »

Perceptive stuff, widespread frosts coming in December rather than October.

My point was in response to Met Eireann calling for frosts this month. I was saying only that frosts are, in my estimation, unlikely for September or October. October frosts are not unusual in Ireland but I think probably not this year. And I didn't mention December, but will now. Widespread frosts in December will probably not occur before the third week, which is unusual.

Lumi

Lumi wrote: »

Met Eireann are forecasting a grass frost on Thursday in parts of the west

Kenring wrote: »

My point was in response to Met Eireann calling for frosts this month. I was saying only that frosts are, in my estimation, unlikely for September or October.

The Met Eireann forecast which i mentioned and which you quoted referred to the night of 5/6th September and as it turns out their forecast was 100% accurate
The stations at Gurteen in Co. Tipperary, Casement, Co. Dublin, Finner, Co. Donegal and Mount Dillion Co. Roscommon all reported frost.

So as you can see, we have already had at least one frosty night thus far this September.

Kenring

Lumi wrote: »

The Met Eireann forecast which i mentioned and which you quoted referred to the night of 5/6th September and as it turns out their forecast was 100% accurate
The stations at Gurteen in Co. Tipperary, Casement, Co. Dublin, Finner, Co. Donegal and Mount Dillion Co. Roscommon all reported frost.

So as you can see, we have already had at least one frosty night thus far this September.

Not disputing that at all. But unusual cold that night is very understandable seeing the 6th was the night of New Moon, and thanks for drawing attention to that. My post was on the 7th which was after that event. So on the 7th I said widespread frosts would be unlikely before November. Are you disagreeing with this? It is hard to tell from your comments. Are you predicting more frosts in September? In October? Your opinion?

whitebriar

Ken,in the August thread,you said the last 10 days of august would be a return to hotter days (hotter than the 17th even)with at least 3 days above 25c...That was wrong.
What's your excuse for that? Carlow got to 24.3 on the 17th..which was the hottest of M.E's stations that month.
You actually stated the hottest would be the 24th to 28th..

The M.E summary of the last 11 days of August states "predominantly unsettled" .

Based on this,your most recent forecast blunder(of many continuously pointed out yet ignored by you on this site,save verbal dancing),How can we have the slightest confidence in your Autumnal musings?

Kenring

whitebriar wrote: »

Ken,in the August thread,you said the last 10 days of august would be a return to hotter days (hotter than the 17th even)with at least 3 days above 25c...That was wrong.
What's your excuse for that? Carlow got to 24.3 on the 17th..which was the hottest of M.E's stations that month.
You actually stated the hottest would be the 24th to 28th..

The M.E summary of the last 11 days of August states "predominantly unsettled" .

Based on this,your most recent forecast blunder(of many continuously pointed out yet ignored by you on this site,save verbal dancing),How can we have the slightest confidence in your Autumnal musings?

Yes, a good point and a good opportunity to point out a better perspective, which is not to desperately take apart each word.
I did think August would continue the summer. Indeed there were many days above 20C but it seems they did not reach above 25C as I thought they might on about 2-3 days. Neveretheless, I think most of Ireland seemed to think it was a summery and warm August as I had suggested it would be at least a year ago now.
But we all get things occasionally not quite perfect and that is not a hanging offence. For example I note that MTC said that September would render above 20C days(Saturday, 7 September, 2013: "Highs by middle of next week could be closer to 20-22 C, and further warming is possible beyond that, into the mid-20s at some point within two weeks".
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971&page=204 post#3050)
Clearly now that is less than likely and MTC would probably be the first to admit so, but I don't see anyone critical of this and losing trust. Rather it was I who said summer temperatures would probably depart in the second week of September, so it seems I may have scored better than MTC on this one.
The point is, you can choose to read my work or not, have trust or not. It's a free country. I post here, as I think we all do, in the belief some might find some comments useful. But no one has all the answers.

whitebriar

I think if one can get past the idea that your forecasts Ken are general overviews,then nobody could have a problem with them.
I think if you broaden out forecasting in an overview,give or take a few days either side kind of way like you do,they can be useful.
But,as you can see,they annoy the hell out of purists here who believe in the science of it all,the maths,the models,the numbers as to why what ends up where.

You do have a lot of fans,not too many here on this board,but people do believe in your methods and thoughts none the less.
Regarding. Mt, his daily thread here is based mainly on an interpretation of the models,which as you know can be codded by the weather too,and be wrong inside 120hrs but not often.

I'm a great beliver in weather equalization myself,we pay for our good weather with our wet weather,if you will,so a wet middle or end to Autumn wouldn't surprise me.

Kenring

whitebriar wrote: »

I think if one can get past the idea that your forecasts Ken are general overviews,then nobody could have a problem with them.
I think if you broaden out forecasting in an overview,give or take a few days either side kind of way like you do,they can be useful.
But,as you can see,they annoy the hell out of purists here who believe in the science of it all,the maths,the models,the numbers as to why what ends up where.

You do have a lot of fans,not too many here on this board,but people do believe in your methods and thoughts none the less.
Regarding. Mt, his daily thread here is based mainly on an interpretation of the models,which as you know can be codded by the weather too,and be wrong inside 120hrs but not often.

I'm a great beliver in weather equalization myself,we pay for our good weather with our wet weather,if you will,so a wet middle or end to Autumn wouldn't surprise me.

Fair comment, and yes I do seem to have support and interest across Ireland, which means I am probably supplying something lay folk can find useful. I find that in this forum there is a culture of attack, and those who find interest in my work don't bother posting. Instead I get private emails. Therefore what I post here is really intended for the silent ones!

whitebriar

Kenring wrote: »

Fair comment, and yes I do seem to have support and interest across Ireland, which means I am probably supplying something lay folk can find useful. I find that in this forum there is a culture of attack, and those who find interest in my work don't bother posting. Instead I get private emails. Therefore what I post here is really intended for the silent ones!

Well,there is an interest in weather here that's probably stronger than in most countries.
However,you are here to promote your product,make no mistake about that.MT is here like an enthusiast like the rest of us.
So like the salesman who posts in any other forum here,you will be scrutinised much more than the layman.
That's not a culture of attack,that's discussion. This is a discussion board after all.

Then there's the bigger issue.If I was a fisherman,I'd be silly to definitely have my week out at sea based on you telling me in February that there might be no storms in mid October for example.That's a decision best taken in the week before I go out there with a met Eireann map in hand.

Kenring

whitebriar wrote: »

..If I was a fisherman,I'd be silly to definitely have my week out at sea based on you telling me in February that there might be no storms in mid October for example.That's a decision best taken in the week before I go out there with a met Eireann map in hand.

Agreed, if people rely solely on Met Eireann then they would be well advised to wait until mid-October before planning anything. Similarly if a Sligo or Galway fisherman finds my longrange suggestions useful, they might exercise caution in the third week of October due to the likelihood of strong onshore winds around October's full moon and kingtides between 18th-21st. I would secure moorings of small boats over that period.

Kenring

Farmers are telling me that nights feel like autumn now, which means we can probably forget any return to summer conditions. All have been happy with the fantastic summer and have managed two silage cuts, and of course wish it to be the same for next year but sadly this will not be the case. Next year only one of the summer months is likely to be dry for more than half the month and it will probably not be a scorcher of a season. As for this autumn, I think it will be looked back on as a mild one as regards temperatures.

Elmer Blooker

looking stormy as we approach the equinox, big storms like this in September are more often than not of ex tropical origin but not this one

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?10-12

Kenring

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

looking stormy as we approach the equinox, big storms like this in September are more often than not of ex tropical origin but not this one

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?10-12

Only the NW, SW and NE appear likely to receive any heavy rain days over the next week (also perhaps Louth).

thewing

Anyone care to venture how September is going to finish up?

Kenring

thewing wrote: »

Anyone care to venture how September is going to finish up?

I have mostly dry and partly cloudy for all counties between 25-29 September. Average of 17-19C for maximums, and 8-10C for overnight minimums. Winds should not be a factor.

tylercollins

At last some interesting weather on cards

Yellow Alert of Wind for Northern Ireland : County Londonderry, County Tyrone & County Antrim valid from 1500 Sun 15 Sep to 2359 Mon 16 Sep

Lumi

tylercollins wrote: »

At last some interesting weather on cards

Yellow Alert of Wind for Northern Ireland : County Londonderry, County Tyrone & County Antrim valid from 1500 Sun 15 Sep to 2359 Mon 16 Sep

Yep! The first storm of Autumn 2013 with westerly gales forecast for Scotland and the northern fringe of Northern Ireland

tylercollins

I'm glad to see it! Weather has been boring as hell the last number of weeks. Hopefully I'll be along the north coast somewhere.

sydthebeat

Would anyone be willing to forecast how next Saturday 21st is going to be?

I have a large outDoor event for that day and weather will be vital in the planning

Lumi

And so it begins....
A dusting of autumn snow this evening on Aonach Mor, Nevis Range

Iancar29

Lumi wrote: »

And so it begins....
A dusting of autumn snow this evening on Aonach Mor, Nevis Range

mike65

Poor sods! :pac:

Lucreto

Lumi wrote: »

And so it begins....
A dusting of autumn snow this evening on Aonach Mor, Nevis Range

Is this snow any earlier than previous years.

anyway

101 days until Christmas:D

Lumi

Lucreto wrote: »

Is this snow any earlier than previous years.

I don't think September snowfall in the Scottish Highlands is all that unusual Lucreto. I remember seeing reports of snowfall there in August 2010 which is rare.

tylercollins

Thunder & Lightning around 1:30am last night. Thunder lasted a good 10 - 15 seconds.

Good start to Autumn that's for sure

Joe Public

Kenring wrote: »

Yes, a good point and a good opportunity to point out a better perspective, which is not to desperately take apart each word.
I did think August would continue the summer. Indeed there were many days above 20C but it seems they did not reach above 25C as I thought they might on about 2-3 days. Neveretheless, I think most of Ireland seemed to think it was a summery and warm August as I had suggested it would be at least a year ago now.
But we all get things occasionally not quite perfect and that is not a hanging offence. For example I note that MTC said that September would render above 20C days(Saturday, 7 September, 2013: "Highs by middle of next week could be closer to 20-22 C, and further warming is possible beyond that, into the mid-20s at some point within two weeks".
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971&page=204 post#3050)
Clearly now that is less than likely and MTC would probably be the first to admit so, but I don't see anyone critical of this and losing trust. Rather it was I who said summer temperatures would probably depart in the second week of September, so it seems I may have scored better than MTC on this one.

Looking good for a warm spell next week.

Blizzard 2010

I think that Azores High may become problematic as we head further into the Autumn. My bet is for a warm autumn overall with a few storms thrown in. I can't see that Azores High going far away and will come back to plague us as we go into November.

leahyl

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

I think that Azores High may become problematic as we head further into the Autumn. My bet is for a warm autumn overall with a few storms thrown in. I can't see that Azores High going far away and will come back to plague us as we go into November.