AUTUMN WEATHER 2013

Elmer Blooker

Joe Public wrote: »

Looking good for a warm spell next week.

Yes, everyone in the Blooker house is very amused as I wrote on the calendar:
Sunday 22nd 22c, Monday 23rd 23c, Tuesday 24th 24c Wed 25th 25c.
Unlikely maybe but not impossible courtesy oh Humberto.

26c recorded in Dublin on this day.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2011/brack/bracka20110928.gif

mike65

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

I think that Azores High may become problematic as we head further into the Autumn. My bet is for a warm autumn overall with a few storms thrown in. I can't see that Azores High going far away and will come back to plague us as we go into November.

and this is a bad thing in what way?

---

The weekend and early next week looks like summer, great!

Joe Public

mike65 wrote: »

and this is a bad thing in what way?

I was wondering the same as well

thewing

I can't read these charts at all - is this good or bad news for Friday week? I have something important on that day....thanks!

whitebriar

@ thewing That's a gfs chart for 9 days time,they run outputs like it a few times a day usually with different results when looking beyond 4 days.
Forecasters usually use a blend of models and form an opinion leading to a forecast.
Met Eireann use all of the models,but emphasize the Euro model.

Looking at one run of the gfs especially that far ahead wouldn't give a good picture.It is pretty good inside 24hrs though.

The one you posted as a live link changes I think every run so will look different shortly..
But the one you posted might spell thunderstorms eventually.

Snowmaker

thewing wrote: »

I can't read these charts at all - is this good or bad news for Friday week? I have something important on that day....thanks!

I wouldn't go banking on any charts which are nearly 10-days out... they can chop/change multiple times before then. Once we get into the reliable time-frame (about 4 days out) then you can consider a forecast .. but before then it's impossible to predict with any great deal of accuracy what will happen. Keep an eye on MT's daily forecast as he will generally mention an 'outlook' on what he expects the weather beyond 4 days will be.

Blizzard 2010

mike65 wrote: »

and this is a bad thing in what way?

---

The weekend and early next week looks like summer, great!

It is just an observation.The Azores high doesn't guarantee warm sunny days, its the drizzly muck I dont like i am also looking foward to some more nice decent weather:D.

Kenring

Showers should be widespread from now until Tuesday. Then clear skies are likely across Ireland between 25th-29th of September. After that, I expect rain within any 3 days throughout October in most counties, except for mostly clear 28th-31st. The main two events to be watchful of in October is flooding in central and central west counties in the first week and very windy conditions around the 18 October for western counties.

dopolahpec

Kenring wrote: »

Showers should be widespread from now until Tuesday. Then clear skies are likely across Ireland between 25th-29th of September. After that, I expect rain within any 3 days throughout October in most counties, except for mostly clear 28th-31st. The main two events to be watchful of in October is flooding in central and central west counties in the first week and very windy conditions around the 18 October for western counties.

That's quite an audacious forecast for the short-term; widespread showers between now and Tuesday. It goes against the grain of what every numerical weather model is showing, and what Met Eireann are saying -basically widespread dry conditions nationwide after tomorrow morning right through to Tuesday, with the caveat of mist and drizzle in west (hardly widespread showers)

whitebriar

dopolahpec wrote: »

That's quite an audacious forecast for the short-term; widespread showers between now and Tuesday. It goes against the grain of what every numerical weather model is showing, and what Met Eireann are saying -basically widespread dry conditions nationwide after tomorrow morning right through to Tuesday, with the caveat of mist and drizzle in west (hardly widespread showers)

Indeed..and I notice no reference to his proclamation earlier in the thread that we've seen the last of the warm weather...

Honestly....

Kenring

dopolahpec wrote: »

That's quite an audacious forecast for the short-term; widespread showers between now and Tuesday. It goes against the grain of what every numerical weather model is showing, and what Met Eireann are saying -basically widespread dry conditions nationwide after tomorrow morning right through to Tuesday, with the caveat of mist and drizzle in west (hardly widespread showers)

Sorry, I don't get your point. If ME says west and south coasts that to me would be fairly widespread, considering the length of Ireland's coast line. I have most showery activity in the west and south too, between now and Tuesday, so as far as I can see ME and I are in complete agreement. Then I am suggesting dry conditions from Wednesday to the following Sunday, but ME's forecast doesn't go beyond Wednesday. I see no conflict in views, hardly "audacious", and in fact in complete agreement with "what every numerical weather model is showing".

thewing

Hope you are right Ken - getting hitched next Friday!

Kenring

thewing wrote: »

Hope you are right Ken - getting hitched next Friday!

I think it will be a wonderfully settled and amazingly fantastic day.
And the weather will be good too...

maquiladora

Drizzle along some of the usual coastal margins while the vast majority of the country remains dry is certainly not the same thing as widespread showers...

whitebriar

Kenring wrote: »

Sorry, I don't get your point. If ME says west and south coasts that to me would be fairly widespread, considering the length of Ireland's coast line. I have most showery activity in the west and south too, between now and Tuesday, so as far as I can see ME and I are in complete agreement. Then I am suggesting dry conditions from Wednesday to the following Sunday, but ME's forecast doesn't go beyond Wednesday. I see no conflict in views, hardly "audacious", and in fact in complete agreement with "what every numerical weather model is showing".

Firstly Ken,widespread means an all island risk in Irish forecasting parlance.

Secondly your comments in this thread so far,( http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=86456975&postcount=39 etc ) keep chopping and changing..
In the above link,Mt was as usual giving an analysis mainly of the models and it turns out,he was mostly right and your suggestion that there would be no return to summer conditions is now seen to be plainly wrong.
Incidentally I record rain in the southeast,not far from 3 M.E stations and I got almost an inch of rain Tuesday.
If I were to go by your forecast some posts back,that shouldn't have happened.
Your latest chop and change is a conversion (late) to fine weather actually returning...

So in a nutshell,I'm sorry to say,no matter which way I look,again and again,I'm seeing your forecasts of no use to me whatsoever.

Joe Public

Kenring wrote: »

Sorry, I don't get your point. If ME says west and south coasts that to me would be fairly widespread, considering the length of Ireland's coast line. I have most showery activity in the west and south too, between now and Tuesday, so as far as I can see ME and I are in complete agreement. Then I am suggesting dry conditions from Wednesday to the following Sunday, but ME's forecast doesn't go beyond Wednesday. I see no conflict in views, hardly "audacious", and in fact in complete agreement with "what every numerical weather model is showing".

Widespread is understood to cover the whole country unless you spread it less wide and specify. Maybe it means something different in NZ weather forecasting but in Ireland widespread is well understood to mean the whole country when included in a weather forecast.

Kenring

Joe Public wrote: »

Widespread is understood to cover the whole country unless you spread it less wide and specify. Maybe it means something different in NZ weather forecasting but in Ireland widespread is well understood to mean the whole country when included in a weather forecast.

In NZ widespread means spread over a region which is considered a wide area. A coastline is considered a wide area because the country in long and thin. If the whole country was meant to be included then "over the whole country" would be said to avoid confusion. In Australia widespread usually means to cover one State. In Ireland I understand that widespread means over a county or two.

Kenring

whitebriar wrote: »

..
In the above link,Mt was as usual giving an analysis mainly of the models and it turns out,he was mostly right and your suggestion that there would be no return to summer conditions is now seen to be plainly wrong..

I cannot see where I mentioned Mt anywhere; I quoted "ME". "ME" is abbreviation for Met Eireann. I have not changed anything I previously said.

Lumi

Kenring wrote: »

In Ireland I understand that widespread means over a county or two.

Kenring, as a few posters have already pointed out, in Ireland the term 'widespread' is generally understood to mean the entire island is at risk.

You have explained that you apply a different meaning to the term, however for the sake of clarity and in order to prevent further bickering and misunderstandings perhaps it would be best to not use the term 'widespread' if a forecast intended to apply to just a county or two

EDIT: Discussion of the term 'widespread' moved to http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056998631&page=5
This thread is for discussing Autumn 2013

whitebriar

Kenring wrote: »

I cannot see where I mentioned Mt anywhere; I quoted "ME". "ME" is abbreviation for Met Eireann. I have not changed anything I previously said.

<snip> In the link I quoted,you did mention mt cranium,saying he is wrong and you are right.
You have changed what you said,but to save face,instead of egg stainingly saying it will be warm next week,you've chosen the words 'clear days'.

I'll use 3 words in my summary of that 'caught out again'.

whitebriar

Just reached 22.9c here in Arklow in sunshine.
Warm for Autumn.
Heck,if this was a normal summer,this would be regarded as a very warm day.
Summery warmth certainly has returned.

Lumi

whitebriar wrote: »

Just reached 22.9c here in Arklow in sunshine.
Warm for Autumn.
Heck,if this was a normal summer,this would be regarded as a very warm day.
Summery warmth certainly has returned.

Yes indeedy, Phoenix Park, Oak Park, Carlow and Moore Park, Cork all at 22C in the Met Eireann 1400hrs reports Lots of 21C's about too

Meanwhile out here on the western fringes its mist, murk and 16/17C

Kenring

whitebriar wrote: »

<snip> In the link I quoted,you did mention mt cranium,saying he is wrong and you are right.
You have changed what you said,but to save face,instead of egg stainingly saying it will be warm next week,you've chosen the words 'clear days'.

I'll use 3 words in my summary of that 'caught out again'.

Firstly: in post #76 I was referring to ME, not Mt. Your response appears to be to that quote.
Secondly: the quote in which I referred to MT's thoughts was in post #29 (two weeks ago) in which he said there may be temperatures in the mid-20s (25C), around now, and which I have seen no evidence of yet. Instead I have only seen low 20s.
My comments were not intended to blame MT or anyone else for being 'wrong', as all opinions are neither right nor wrong.
For the 25th onwards I have little or no rain for most of the country for about 4 days, and temperatures in the range of 16-21C.

Villain

Well it just hit 24.3c here!

whitebriar

Kenring wrote: »

Firstly: in post #76 I was referring to ME, not Mt. Your response appears to be to that quote.
Secondly: the quote in which I referred to MT's thoughts was in post #29 (two weeks ago) in which he said there may be temperatures in the mid-20s (25C), around now, and which I have seen no evidence of yet. Instead I have only seen low 20s.
My comments were not intended to blame MT or anyone else for being 'wrong', as all opinions are neither right nor wrong.
For the 25th onwards I have little or no rain for most of the country for about 4 days, and temperatures in the range of 16-21C.

Ken,how many times does one have to say,that Mt is commenting on the models and as it turns out his interpretation has been largely correct with regard to what he's been saying about this period.
In the post I linked,its plain as day,that you were saying at the time,he couldn't be right...mainly because you were promoting your view that we'd seen the last of the warmth.
Almost every post now,there's some new twist from you denying the obvious and ignoring criticism.
This is supposed to be a discussion board...not a soapbox.

relaxed

Kenring wrote: »

Showers should be widespread from now until Tuesday. Then clear skies are likely across Ireland between 25th-29th of September. After that, I expect rain within any 3 days throughout October in most counties, except for mostly clear 28th-31st. The main two events to be watchful of in October is flooding in central and central west counties in the first week and very windy conditions around the 18 October for western counties.

23 Degrees today, dry and warm, no sign of your widespread showers and not much rain forecast until after tuesday.

You called end of summer in another thread a few weeks back.

Do you still believe you have a viable system based on the moons position or is it a case of lucky guesses?

Kenring

Villain wrote: »

Well it just hit 24.3c here!

Oh, I don't doubt that one or two places at times get higher temperatures than others, they may be sheltered and/or south facing.
Today I told some Roscommon farmer friends about these reported 22-23C spots and they were very interested because temperatures there have only been 17-18C in the past few days.
So why only cherry-picking here of temperatures that are high? It seems to be creating a false impression. I see that even ME is today calling for a top range of 17-20C with an outlook of 18-21C, highest over Leincester and south Ulster..

Kenring

whitebriar wrote: »

Ken,how many times does one have to say,that Mt is commenting on the models and as it turns out his interpretation has been largely correct with regard to what he's been saying about this period.
In the post I linked,its plain as day,that you were saying at the time,he couldn't be right...mainly because you were promoting your view that we'd seen the last of the warmth.
Almost every post now,there's some new twist from you denying the obvious and ignoring criticism.
This is supposed to be a discussion board...not a soapbox.

Yes, September is indeed seeing the last of the warmth, and it is only one or two on this board who seem to be saying the reverse of what most of Ireland are reporting. People now are wearing jackets at night and since the 11th have been saying it has definitely switched to autumn. Farmers, radio hosts, private emailers and journos are all telling me the same story. So who to believe?

Calibos

<snip>

Reached 23 here in Bray today I think

Lumi

The max temps recorded at Met Eireann stations yesterday were
23.9C at Oak Park in Carlow, 23.8C in the Phoenix Park, Dublin and 8 Stations recorded temps of 22C+
Not too shabby for September