Dublin Airport New Runway/Infrastructure.

EchoIndia

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Not sure what point you’re making. Traffic is being reset to zero. Many airlines will not survive. Aviation will come back but will look different in ways we
Can’t yet anticipate

We can all speculate but the truth is no one knows what the aviation scene will be like post-Covid-19. Predicting the future is one thing that mankind is hopeless at.

JCX BXC

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Not sure what point you’re making. Traffic is being reset to zero. Many airlines will not survive. Aviation will come back but will look different in ways we
Can’t yet anticipate

If we can't anticipate, why are you saying they should stop building the runway?

Traffic is zero at the moment, but that's because you're not allowed to leave your country.

MJohnston

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Most costs are not sunk

Even if that were true (any source, or just you speculating?) it wouldn't matter. Given how far the work has progressed already, a significant amount will have been sunk.

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

If we can't anticipate, why are you saying they should stop building the runway?

Traffic is zero at the moment, but that's because you're not allowed to leave your country.

Traffic isn't zero. Number of flights is remarkably only down by 53%.

JCX BXC

MJohnston wrote: »

Traffic isn't zero. Number of flights is remarkably only down by 53%.

Bad choice of words on my behalf.

53%? As of when? From a purely observational point of view the airport appeared very quiet on flightradar today, I'd be very surprised to hear that's half of the traffic.

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

Bad choice of words on my behalf.

53%? As of when? From a purely observational point of view the airport appeared very quiet on flightradar today, I'd be very surprised to hear that's half of the traffic.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0325/1126310-ryanairs-dublin-flights/

Might be averaged over the month? Doesn't read that way, but it might be poorly worded?

Charles Babbage

Cloudio9 wrote: »

More likely a good time to mothball the whole project. Will be a long time before traffic recovers. Covid19 followed by a deep recession. DAA financial plans just went out the window.

On the contrary this is the type of project that should continue. The work is outside and doesn't have any great issues from a contagion perspective. The work is of long term benefit and if the government or DAA are borrowing money then a long term payoff is appropriate. And of course both the economy and the airport traffic might rev up quite quickly again.

BonnieSituation

Cloudio9 wrote: »

More likely a good time to mothball the whole project. Will be a long time before traffic recovers. Covid19 followed by a deep recession. DAA financial plans just went out the window.

Is it it money that you're trying to save here?

What advantages are there for mothballing the project?

Cloudio9

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Is it it money that you're trying to save here?

What advantages are there for mothballing the project?

It’s just that without passengers daa cash flow in from airlines and retail will have dried up.

Having contractors on site meeting milestones on projects will trigger payments

The runway might not now be needed for several years

It will take a long time after this for traffic to return to previous levels because without doubt the global economy is going into recession. That’s not speculation, it’s a certainty.

Secondly, and this is speculation , we don’t know if corona virus is here with us for years, creating havoc with travel long term.

I get it from purely construction project point of view it’s probably ideal that there are a very small number of aircraft movements for the next while.

Jamie2k9

Cloudio9 wrote: »

It’s just that without passengers daa cash flow in from airlines and retail will have dried up.

Having contractors on site meeting milestones on projects will trigger payments

The runway might not now be needed for several years

It will take a long time after this for traffic to return to previous levels because without doubt the global economy is going into recession. That’s not speculation, it’s a certainty.

Secondly, and this is speculation , we don’t know if corona virus is here with us for years, creating havoc with travel long term.

I get it from purely construction project point of view it’s probably ideal that there are a very small number of aircraft movements for the next while.

Breaking a contract will trigger even bigger payments. There is no question about stopping and having it in place will deliver benefits in time. Back in 2008 had we stopped T2...

Traffic will bounce back, runways won't pay for themselves in 5 years but will long term.

CAR might not come out of all this looking to well after recent decisions!

BonnieSituation

Cloudio9 wrote: »

It’s just that without passengers daa cash flow in from airlines and retail will have dried up.

Having contractors on site meeting milestones on projects will trigger payments

The runway might not now be needed for several years

It will take a long time after this for traffic to return to previous levels because without doubt the global economy is going into recession. That’s not speculation, it’s a certainty.

Secondly, and this is speculation , we don’t know if corona virus is here with us for years, creating havoc with travel long term.

I get it from purely construction project point of view it’s probably ideal that there are a very small number of aircraft movements for the next while.

Cashflow?

They're not paying for this out of current expenditure.

It's a capital project.
This money is long earmarked and isn't available for anything else. Long term lending is predicated on it being used for this project.

I'm sorry, but your "plan" makes no sense and if anything would cost way more in the future.

I mean, you're making these pronouncements even with T2 available as an example of building infrastructure during a downturn right there for ya... Madness.

LiamaDelta

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Breaking a contract will trigger even bigger payments. There is no question about stopping and having it in place will deliver benefits in time. Back in 2008 had we stopped T2...

Traffic will bounce back, runways won't pay for themselves in 5 years but will long term.

CAR might not come out of all this looking to well after recent decisions!

These are unprecedented times so breaking a contract is not beyond the bounds of possibility. Given that aviation has taken such a huge hammering, there would be a lot of justification in reducing the remaining work on site and extending the programme by maybe 12 months, thus you spread out the cost. The new runway is unlikely to be needed in the next 2-3 years.

salmocab

Whilst it might be possible to make short term savings by not finishing a project it would cost more long term, I know nothing about runways really but generally in construction you need to reach a certain point before it’s possible to leave it and walk away. I’d suspect that an unfinished runway left for several years would let water in which would expand contract and freeze over the years rendering a lot of what’s been done as useless. It might be possible to leave finishing things like the electrical work for another time but I’d think that’s about it.

BonnieSituation

LiamaDelta wrote: »

These are unprecedented times so breaking a contract is not beyond the bounds of possibility. Given that aviation has taken such a huge hammering, there would be a lot of justification in reducing the remaining work on site and extending the programme by maybe 12 months, thus you spread out the cost. The new runway is unlikely to be needed in the next 2-3 years.

I still don't understand how anyone thinks there is money to be saved at all?

Am I missing something? The money is being drawn down for this specific purpose and is being paid back by a semi state company over such a long period at such minimal interest rates that it can hardly be worthwhile touching it.

And then when we save these pennies, what will we do with them?

goingnowhere

Even if Dublin was a reduced to 50% of numbers thats 16 million we still need a second runway. The plans for the second runway started 15 years ago and planning was first approved in 2007 when numbers just crossed 20 million

I can remember back in 2007 the long queue for a 10 departure on a Monday morning.

Current 28 is too short to maximise routes and loads, the runway also needs a full rebuild.

NH2013

Also don’t forget, the current runway is too short for the 321NEO to be used to it’s designed potential, so if traffic was to decline and the NEO was to take over more routes we’ll need the new runway to enable that.

Nijmegen

Yeah, I think the suggestion we stop it has little insight into the nature of contractual obligations, long term debt servicing, or the extremely long time frames involved in getting an infrastructure project spooled up and completed (if you were to stop now even if you could without penalty, you'd likely need new planning permissions, new tenders etc etc before you even got started again).

sparrowcar

Dublin airport usually has around 700 movements a day at this time of year. The last few days it's been around 200 moments. That's over 70% decline in movements and decreasing every day.

Rough figures.

jesus_thats_gre

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Not sure what point you’re making. Traffic is being reset to zero. Many airlines will not survive. Aviation will come back but will look different in ways we
Can’t yet anticipate

No matter what you think, this situation is a temporary one.

You do not mothball strategic projects of this nature just because you have short term challenges of this nature.

PinOnTheRight

sparrowcar wrote: »

Dublin airport usually has around 700 movements a day at this time of year. The last few days it's been around 200 moments. That's over 70% decline in movements and decreasing every day.

Rough figures.

For Wednesday 25th March, Eurocontrol report DUB as 69% down on the number of flights compared with the equivalent day in 2019.

Shannon Area Control down 60%. Dublin Area down 71%. Generally across Europe down 79%.

Idbatterim

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

No matter what you think, this situation is a temporary one.

You do not mothball strategic projects of this nature just because you have short term challenges of this nature.

if the argument was the exisiting runway is adequate length wise and it was just a capacity thing, it is one thing, that runway is not fit for purpose for all of the air craft that use it...

Hotblack Desiato

Cloudio9 wrote: »

The runway might not now be needed for several years

Guff.
Complete guff of the worst order.

Nijmegen wrote: »

Yeah, I think the suggestion we stop it has little insight into the nature of contractual obligations, long term debt servicing, or the extremely long time frames involved in getting an infrastructure project spooled up and completed (if you were to stop now even if you could without penalty, you'd likely need new planning permissions, new tenders etc etc before you even got started again).

Little insight into anything at all, really.

jesus_thats_gre

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

No matter what you think, this situation is a temporary one.

You do not mothball strategic projects of this nature just because you have short term challenges of this nature.

This 100%.

Even if it is down for 12 months like post 9/11. Next summer will have a massive bounce back. The ERSI have said in terms of jobs, depending on external factors of course, that by the end of 2021 would see us back to where we were just before this event.

Chopping your nose off to spite your face is not a good business decision. We in Ireland always build stuff TOO LATE. Sure this entire topic has hundreds of posts saying runway, stand, terminal capacity was too late. Now this was and is an unprecedented event, an unpredicted event, but apparently the best thing to do is stop construction now for how long ? Why not build it, finish it and have it ready.

If you think that once this is over people won’t need a break, if you think that once people are back working they won’t be booking flights next year then you really don’t know man kind. I can promise you that most people social distancing themselves at home for weeks on end looking at the same four walls closing in are planning to get away or visit family overseas.

cson

The opposite in fact is probably true; now is the time to start making infrastructure investments.

Imagine if in 2008/09 the Government had committed to Metro North.

cson

cson wrote: »

The opposite in fact is probably true; now is the time to start making infrastructure investments.

Imagine if in 2008/09 the Government had committed to Metro North.

Plenty of people told them to, told them to use the national pension reserve and spend it on infrastructure to keep builders in the country and sure you’ll get all the taxes back anyway. Costs would be low too.

bennyineire

Cloudio9 wrote: »

More likely a good time to mothball the whole project. Will be a long time before traffic recovers. Covid19 followed by a deep recession. DAA financial plans just went out the window.

Infrastructure is built for the future not the now, there were many people calling for T2 to be scrapped in 2008. I'm guessing you were one of them. Ridiculous statement from you really

Tenger

Actually now would be a great time for the DAA to borrow more money, as interest rates are at an historic low.

Blut2

Tenger wrote: »

Actually now would be a great time for the DAA to borrow more money, as interest rates are at an historic low.

And if theres a post-corona recession over the next year there may suddenly be a lot of unemployed construction workers available to build things, too.

Recessions are by far the best time for large-scale infrastructure projects, if the capital funding is available.

trellheim

And if theres a post-corona recession over the next year there may suddenly be a lot of unemployed construction workers available to build things, too.

Recessions are by far the best time for large-scale infrastructure projects, if the capital funding is available.

This is correct, counter cycle building is one of the best things in a recession

Larbre34

Amazed at some of the posts suggesting suspending construction of the new runway.

If the new Government has any sense, and in fairness the personnel, they should borrow up the arse at basically zero and complete the runway, the Metro, the DART expansion, the Dublin Port expansion, the maternity hospital and whatever other major public projects are on the slate, and go around the world to entice the engineers and contractors to build them for a song. We're in a time of War, this is how you contrive a war economy and bring the Country roaring out of the doldrums that this temporary situation will inflict on society and the economy.