Match Thread: Leinster Rugby vs Ospreys, Friday 03rd May 19:45, TG4/S4C

molloyjh

What's that coming over the hill....

It's the feckin' Ospreys. Again. 1 win in 7 since Joe took over the reigns as Leinster head coach. Probably the one blot on his Leinster copy book. This game is a must win for a number of reasons. We need to beat them in the RDS. We haven't done since January 2011 when we had pretty much a full strength team and Dan Biggars kicking boots went AWOL. It was a game we probably shouldn't have won. Not only do we owe them a beating but we need to win to guarantee a home semi-final. A win of any kind will secure that based on our greater number of wins compared to Glasgow. And finally this is the last regular league game in the RDS for Joe Schmidt, Jonny Sexton, Isa Nacewa, Jamie Hagan and Andrew Conway. It would be nice to end it the right way and ensure they have another home game the following week.

After last weeks convincing and thouroughly enjoyable win over Biarritz there have been a handful of changes to the starting XV. The front row has been totally changed with McGrath, Cronin and Hagan coming in for Healy, Strauss and Ross. The latter has been rested altogether while Healy and Strauss bench alongside Michael Bent. In the second row Toner drops to the bench and Quinn Roux comes in beside captain Leo Cullen. In the back row Jamie Heaslip and Kevin McLaughlin are rested with Sean O'Brien and Rhys Ruddock stepping in and Dominic Ryan coming on to the bench.

There are no changes at half back with Boss partnering Sexton and Cooney on the bench. Ian Madigan retains the inside centre jersey while Brian O'Driscoll drops to the bench and Fergus McFadden moves in to partner Madigan in mid-field. Isa Nacewa and Rob Kearney retain their places from last week and Andrew Conway takes over from McFadden on the wing. Cooney, Goodman and O'Driscoll are all on the bench.

For their part the Ospreys have selected their strongest available side and are targeting this game. While their destiny isn't solely in their hands Steve Tandy has come out to say:

"There'd be nothing worse than giving up the fight and then getting back into the changing room after the game on Friday to discover Treviso had done their part in Llanelli, which is why as long as the maths mean we still have a chance we'll be going for it."

This is one that they will be going all out to win. And given the trouble Leinsters first string side has had with the Ospreys over the last number of years it probably isn't a massive confidence boost to see so many first choice players out of the starting line-up. This is not a game that I was hugely confident about before the squad announcement. I am particularly nervous about it now.

The pack is going to need to front up in a big way tomorrow. McGrath has looked very solid in what we've seen of him so far and Hagan has definitely improved, so much so I'm genuinely disappointed he's leaving us at the end of the season. Cullen and Roux behind them should provide a decent engine, and our back row has 2 opensides and a blindside who has bulked up considerably this season and will certainly be looking to hit rucks hard. We may well need that to disrupt Ospreys ball. In terms of set piece our line-out should be ok, darts permitting, but our scrum may well be under serious pressure. Let's hope Joe has a move or two off the line-out up his sleeve like last week!

In the back line Leinster have some excellent options, and at the same time some areas for concern. Jonny Sexton has shown relatively little signs of rust after his injury lay-off and Isa Nacewa seems to be hitting a rich vein of form in the last few weeks. Ian Madigan went reasonably well at inside centre last week given that he was out of position and I'd back him to up his game further this week with the extra time he's had there. However Fergus McFadden, who has had an excellent season on the wing and looked good at inside centre, is in possibly his weakest position at 13. Ferg has been caught out defensively there a few times and could well be targeted. Andrew Conway hasn't looked close to what people had hoped from him this season and while he will do a job I don't expect much more from him.

As much as it pains me to say it I think Leinsters best chance is to stay within a score of the Ospreys until around the 50 minute mark. Then we need to bring in O'Driscoll for Conway and move McFadden to the wing, along with Healy for McGrath. Then Goodman for Sexton and move Madigan to 10 at around 65. Give the Sexton-Madigan-O'Driscoll mid-field 10-15 mins to create something for us before taking Sexton off. Hopefully that will be enough to give us the edge going into the final 10 minutes. It's a tough one to predict, so I'm not going to.

But remember, if you're there and there's only 1 thing you do it must be "1 MORE YEAR!" when Drico comes on.

|

15: Rob Kearney|15: Richard Fussell
14: Andrew Conway|14: Tom Habberfield
13: Fergus McFadden|13: Ashley Beck
12: Ian Madigan|12: Ben John
11: Isa Nacewa|11: Ross Jones
10: Jonathan Sexton|10: Dan Biggar
9: Isaac Boss|9: Rhys Webb
1: Jack McGrath|1: Duncan Jones
2: Sean Cronin|2: Scott Baldwin
3: Jamie Hagan|3: Adam Jones
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN|4: Alun Wyn Jones CAPTAIN
5: Quinn Roux|5: James King
6: Rhys Ruddock|6: Justin Tipuric
7: Shane Jennings|7: Sam Lewis
8: Sean O'Brien|8: Joe Bearman
|
16: Richardt Strauss|16: Dmitri Arhip
17: Cian Healy|17: Ryan Bevington
18: Michael Bent|18: Cai Griffiths
19: Devin Toner|19: Ian Evans
20: Dominic Ryan|20: Morgan Allen
21: John Cooney|21: Matthew Morgan
22: Andrew Goodman|22: Tom Isaacs
23: Brian O'Driscoll|23: Jonathan Spratt

awec

Leinster to win comfortably.

irishbucsfan

Our back line is miles better and far more experienced. Onus is on the likes of Roux and Ruddock to allow the backs to keep the tempo up and create space.

I think they'll do it. I reckon we'll win and maybe even with a BP.

molloyjh

awec wrote: »

Leinster to win comfortably.

I dunno. Yes the Ospreys are missing a few key players, but so are we, from our starting XV if nothing else. They've had our number for a while now and I'm not sure I see that changing this week.

awec

molloyjh wrote: »

I dunno. Yes the Ospreys are missing a few key players, but so are we, from our starting XV if nothing else. They've had our number for a while now and I'm not sure I see that changing this week.

Away with you and your reverse psychology! :pac:

If Leinster don't win this comfortably I'll be shocked.

Principal Skinner

It's going to be a lot closer than people are suggesting, don't forget madsers barely ever played 12 an McFadden isn't the most creative 13. Big battle in the forward will decide the game, could o either way

jamiedav2011

Foutali'i is a huge loss for Ospreys. Didn't know he was injured, that swings it very much in our favour I think.

As always, the key to this game is the ruck, with in essence 4 7s on the pitch.

Good to see we've gone for Ruddock, Cullen and Roux, all good in clearing ball, which is where we completely fell down against them twice last year. Ruddock in particular should be looking to smash every breakdown and look at the rest of the game as a bonus.

.ak

60% chance of rain. Boo-urns!

Heroditas

Who's reffing?

.ak wrote: »

60% chance of rain. Boo-urns!

40% chance that it doesn't! Huzzah!

totallegend

Heroditas wrote: »

Who's reffing?

Nigel Owens.

molloyjh

Heroditas wrote: »

Who's reffing?

Nigel Owens.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Principal Skinner wrote: »

It's going to be a lot closer than people are suggesting, don't forget madsers barely ever played 12 an McFadden isn't the most creative 13. Big battle in the forward will decide the game, could o either way

To be honest as long as there is one creative centre I'm happy and Madigan can fill that role.

Madigan may have barely played 12 but when he has played 12 it has been in big games and he hasn't let anyone down.

Quint2010

Don't forget they only beat us by a point last year with an exceptional performance by a guy who they don't have anymore. Plus we ran out of steam in the last 10 minutes against a much fresher team and Schmidt being mindful of that has shuffled the pack-literally. Leinster by 6.

Heroditas

Great, free-for-alls at the breakdown all night so...

totallegend

Somebody asked on the general Leinster thread why the Ospreys have no scrum-half cover on the bench; Tom Habberfield would normally be an SH and would slot in.

CIARAN_BOYLE

totallegend wrote: »

Somebody asked on the general Leinster thread why the Ospreys have no scrum-half cover on the bench; Tom Habberfield would normally be an SH and would slot in.

That was me, thank you.

sweetthing

Very interesting backline you boys have there. Also, thanks for giving Conway a bit of exposure before ye ship him out to us!

Larbre34

It is an interesting backline, its a Willy Wonkas Factory worth of some of the best out of hand kickers in Europe!

Rain should clear during late afternoon tomorrow and it will be mild enough to dry up quickly, so expect a slightly damp track drying underfoot, should not affect handling too much

Leinster 32-19 Ospreys

leftleg

Spreys no.7 Sam Lewis is a very good player

jamiedav2011

Larbre34 wrote: »

It is an interesting backline, its a Willy Wonkas Factory worth of some of the best out of hand kickers in Europe!

Rain should clear during late afternoon tomorrow and it will be mild enough to dry up quickly, so expect a slightly damp track drying underfoot, should not affect handling too much

Leinster 32-19 Ospreys

Is it?! Fergie, Madser, RK all pretty ok kickers from hand, hardly ROG like and nothing to stand out.

Nacewa isn't great, Conway isn't great, Sexton is very good, Boss can be awful at times.

Plenty of great kickers from the tee alright.

decisions

I think I'd prefer 12. Ferg and 13. Madigan.

durkadurka

We totally need to win this to: 1 put the Ospreys out and 2 get the home semi.

Genuinely worried for the front row in the scrum.

Hopefully our superior bench will see us home.

accidentprone1

decisions wrote: »

I think I'd prefer 12. Ferg and 13. Madigan.

Has Madigan any experience at 13 in recent years?

decisions

accidentprone1 wrote: »

Has Madigan any experience at 13 in recent years?

Not that I know of, but how many games had he played at 12 before the Amlin semi?

[Jackass]

Strong O's team. I'll be very excited to see how the scrum goes ... Jack McGrath and Jamie Hagan both owe the Ospreys a mauling after they were both demolished at tighthead in the corresponding fixture last season (iirc). Hagan going off injured and Joe opting to put McGrath in at tight and turning down the opportunity of uncontested scrums.

McGrath at lose head, vs. Adam Jones is the best competition he'll have so far in his career. If he holds his own, we can get very excited about his prospect of being second in line next season. I personally think he's Cian Healy 2.0.

Hagan has been very strong (for some reason since signing for LI) so will be interesting to see how he gets on...probably will baffle the mind more as to why we've let him go and kept 'A' team regular Bent...

Great to see Madigan being retained at 12, I thought he did well there v Biarritz.

All in all I think we shade it in most areas, including the bench, and I think it could be a great game, I fancy Leinster to just about win it though, eliminating O's from play-offs and lifting the hoodoo.

irishbucsfan

accidentprone1 wrote: »

Has Madigan any experience at 13 in recent years?

Played there very briefly twice that I remember. Once against Cardiff in the QF in 2012. Once in a ML game. Both because of injury/subs.

There's no need to play him there and move him away from the half backs. Just asking for trouble in defense really.

I think Madigan is a little wasted outside Sexton and I think I'd prefer Goodman. But Madigan will probably learn a lot playing outside Johnny and that's good for next season as well.

pc7

Rubbish at the permutations, if we lose and Glasgow win is that an away semi to Glasgow next weekend? Does anyone know which game is which day next weekend?

vienne86

pc7 wrote: »

Rubbish at the permutations, if we lose and Glasgow win is that an away semi to Glasgow next weekend? Does anyone know which game is which day next weekend?

I have in my diary that 1st v 4th is on Friday and 2nd v 3rd on Saturday....don't know where I got that, but must have seen it somewhere.

accidentprone1

decisions wrote: »

Not that I know of, but how many games had he played at 12 before the Amlin semi?

I'm guessing not many? I've always thought it would be easier for a 10 to play 12 than 13 though.

totallegend

pc7 wrote: »

Rubbish at the permutations, if we lose and Glasgow win is that an away semi to Glasgow next weekend?

Yes (assuming Ulster also win).

If Ulster were to lose at home to Cardiff (unlikely), a win for Leinster would mean topping the table and a home semi against the Scarlets.

Neither Scarlets nor Ospreys can finish higher than fourth.

If both Leinster and Ulster lose, Glasgow could top the table but will need to earn four more match points than Ulster tonight (i.e. if Ulster got losing BP, Glasgow would need a winning BP).

It's hard to see past a semi-final line-up of:
Ulster v Scarlets
Leinster v Glasgow or Glasgow v Leinster.

dub_skav

totallegend wrote: »

Yes (assuming Ulster also win).

If Ulster were to lose at home to Cardiff (unlikely), a win for Leinster would mean topping the table and a home semi against either Scarlets or Ospreys (but 99% chance it will be Scarlets). Neither Scarlets nor Ospreys can finish higher than fourth.

If both Leinster and Ulster lose, Glasgow could top the table but will need to earn four more match points than Ulster tonight (i.e. if Ulster got losing BP, Glasgow would need a winning BP).

It's hard to see past a semi-final line-up of:
Ulster v Scarlets
Leinster v Glasgow or Glasgow v Leinster.

Is it not impossible for Leinster to play Ospreys?
Leinster win means Ospreys cannot qualify, Ospreys win means Leinster cannot finish top