Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Buford T. Justice XIX

Keepgrowing wrote: »

Not yet. Met s grp last week and they're feeling the pain now. They feel the way out is more production regardless of price

http://feedstuffs.com/story-more-calls-dairy-assistance-45-145321

US intervention by the back door?

Buy food and distribute to those who wouldn't be buying it anyway.

kowtow

GDT + 12.7% didn't look at volume etc. yet.

Pacoa

Quantity sold (MT)

37,766

Buford T. Justice XIX

kowtow wrote: »

GDT + 12.7% didn't look at volume etc. yet.

More here.

https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/

All classes up and quantity sold up to 37k tonnes.

Butter up 14.1%, skim up 3%, WMP 18.9%

kowtow

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

More here.

https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/

All classes up and quantity sold up to 37k tonnes.

Butter up 14.1%, skim up 3%, WMP 18.9%

Next auction is the important one, if we get a strong rise (say 6%+) on decent volume at that event we would be beginning to look like the long anticipated recovery was underway.

Buford T. Justice XIX

kowtow wrote: »

Next auction is the important one, if we get a strong rise (say 6%+) on decent volume at that event we would be beginning to look like the long anticipated recovery was underway.

I think it is already, kowtow. The strong rise and large volume looks like buyers who were waiting and expecting 'cheap' powder were forced out into the market to get the volumes needed before another price rise.

Like price falls, price rises seem to compound price rises.

kowtow

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

I think it is already, kowtow. The strong rise and large volume looks like buyers who were waiting and expecting 'cheap' powder were forced out into the market to get the volumes needed before another price rise.

Like price falls, price rises seem to compound price rises.

Hope you are right, I suspect there is a bit of a rush to buy as you suggest, my caution regarding the next auction was that we didn't quite make it through the previous minor high level in this one, and a convincing break of a previous high is generally the sign that would give me a little mid term confidence - however, the index is hardly a liquid one and it might be better to look at the components relative to their previous levels (too lazy / busy to do that today...) -

in any case.. better up than down!

yosemitesam1

What has been happening excess milk in America, is it being sold or is it in storage by government, co-ops etc?

Buford T. Justice XIX

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

What has been happening excess milk in America, is it being sold or is it in storage by government, co-ops etc?

All being used atm. Production up but demand up also.

degetme

Any news on Kerry price?

Buford T. Justice XIX

degetme wrote: »

Any news on Kerry price?

Nothing yet:(

I'll take that as a sign that they are fighting over whether to rise it by 2c or just stick with the one for this month:o

freedominacup

kowtow wrote: »

Hope you are right, I suspect there is a bit of a rush to buy as you suggest, my caution regarding the next auction was that we didn't quite make it through the previous minor high level in this one, and a convincing break of a previous high is generally the sign that would give me a little mid term confidence - however, the index is hardly a liquid one and it might be better to look at the components relative to their previous levels (too lazy / busy to do that today...) -

in any case.. better up than down!

$100 million was the total volume of sales on that scam operation yesterday. How much cash do you think you'd have needed in your account yesterday morning to move that "index" another $300/tonne kt? It's some joke when one trader with a small amount of cash can influence our incomes in such a dramatic manner. What prevented our co-ops buying against the drop in this market. It would have been a lot cheaper for the EU to buy for intervention from the gdt as the volumes are so small than the kind of open ended commitment made in the past twelve months.

OverRide

Siobhan Talbot on morning Ireland talking about uncertainty in the 'milk space'
No uncertainty in her salary space,that's for sure

Oh and she congratulated Glanbia on being able to increase milk price thanks to a market improvement
The cheek
She gave us an increase from our own share money not the milk market :mad:

Dawggone

OverRide wrote: »

Bst

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_somatotropin


Fridge loads of it on farms over there

With the right cow (hol) and the right feed 10k litres is easily achieved without BST.

Dawggone

freedominacup wrote: »

$100 million was the total volume of sales on that scam operation yesterday. How much cash do you think you'd have needed in your account yesterday morning to move that "index" another $300/tonne kt? It's some joke when one trader with a small amount of cash can influence our incomes in such a dramatic manner. What prevented our co-ops buying against the drop in this market. It would have been a lot cheaper for the EU to buy for intervention from the gdt as the volumes are so small than the kind of open ended commitment made in the past twelve months.

If that's true we should organise a little slush fund for Kowtow and let him enjoy himself.....





.....as far as I recall nobody went to jail for manipulating Libor.

jaymla627

OverRide wrote: »

Siobhan Talbot on morning Ireland talking about uncertainty in the 'milk space'
No uncertainty in her salary space,that's for sure

Oh and she congratulated Glanbia on being able to increase milk price thanks to a market improvement
The cheek
She gave us an increase from our own share money not the milk market :mad:

She may find another few cent over the next few months aswell, the Co-op top up well must be nearly dry and when that runs out glanbia are 3-4 cent behind the likes of arrabawn/lakelands...
Unless of course they plan on using the 50 million they banked through the bond exchange, which is the most likely outcome

whelan2

OverRide wrote: »

Siobhan Talbot on morning Ireland talking about uncertainty in the 'milk space'
No uncertainty in her salary space,that's for sure

Oh and she congratulated Glanbia on being able to increase milk price thanks to a market improvement
The cheek
She gave us an increase from our own share money not the milk market :mad:

Did she mention that Glanbia will probably be again the bottom of the milk price league for this month?

jaymla627

Dawggone wrote: »

With the right cow (hol) and the right feed 10k litres is easily achieved without BST.

But sure them 10k cows don't last and their ebi would be shocking something about grass to milk/high solid cows.....
We are kidding ourselves in Ireland if we think a 5000 litre grass based cow will even come close to matching a 10k American cow when grain/maize is so cheap....
Just look at the size of their units and how quickly they expand/turn on the taps when milk price rises, with no real premium being put on our premium grass based milk trying to compete with these guys isn't realistic

Farmer Ed

freedominacup wrote: »

$100 million was the total volume of sales on that scam operation yesterday. How much cash do you think you'd have needed in your account yesterday morning to move that "index" another $300/tonne kt? It's some joke when one trader with a small amount of cash can influence our incomes in such a dramatic manner. What prevented our co-ops buying against the drop in this market. It would have been a lot cheaper for the EU to buy for intervention from the gdt as the volumes are so small than the kind of open ended commitment made in the past twelve months.

This world seems to have become one big casino.

OverRide

whelan2 wrote: »

Did she mention that Glanbia will probably be again the bottom of the milk price league for this month?

Nope and wasn't mentioned by Brian Finn either

Farmer Ed

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/increased-milk-prices-a-sign-processors-fear-farmers-will-cut-back-supplies/

I am not an ICMSA member as like Ifa I don't think they have a good track record. But I'm beginning to start to have a little bit of respect for this guy. We need more of this type of hard hitting representation. A spade needs to be called a spade.

Mooooo

jaymla627 wrote: »

Dawggone wrote: »

With the right cow (hol) and the right feed 10k litres is easily achieved without BST.

But sure them 10k cows don't last and their ebi would be shocking something about grass to milk/high solid cows.....
We are kidding ourselves in Ireland if we think a 5000 litre grass based cow will even come close to matching a 10k American cow when grain/maize is so cheap....
Just look at the size of their units and how quickly they expand/turn on the taps when milk price rises, with no real premium being put on our premium grass based milk trying to compete with these guys isn't realistic

Our biggest issue isn't so much our method of production imo, but the fact that more or less all our milk has to leave these shores whereas most other countries bar nz have a significant domestic demand to prop up prices to some degree. Marketing and product wise we have a lot to do as powder just won't cut it if we want to get more for our milk

mahoney_j

jaymla627 wrote: »

But sure them 10k cows don't last and their ebi would be shocking something about grass to milk/high solid cows.....
We are kidding ourselves in Ireland if we think a 5000 litre grass based cow will even come close to matching a 10k American cow when grain/maize is so cheap....
Just look at the size of their units and how quickly they expand/turn on the taps when milk price rises, with no real premium being put on our premium grass based milk trying to compete with these guys isn't realistic

10 k litre cows aren't lasting /2/3 lactations top over there ,pumped with feed amongst other things jaysus you've an afull chip on your shoulder re ebi /grass based dairying in this country which vast ammount of us are doing well .think u should open up your gates and invite us all along to see where we're going wrong .....
Rest of your post id agree with

jaymla627

mahoney_j wrote: »

10 k litre cows aren't lasting /2/3 lactations top over there ,pumped with feed amongst other things jaysus you've an afull chip on your shoulder re ebi /grass based dairying in this country which vast ammount of us are doing well .think u should open up your gates and invite us all along to see where we're going wrong .....
Rest of your post id agree with

Pedigree holstein herd up the road who i source bulls from and he can show you a herd of 10k cows going into 6/7/8/9 lactations, grass based system here aswell but I find it hilarious irish lads think that forigen/low ebi cows are fragile yokes that barely last 2 lactations, it's a myth that teagasc have been peddling for years
Delivered 533 kgs last year on co-op report with 70 % of herd in 1st/2nd lactation, should do 550-570kgs this year and will be putting in no more then 1.3 ton of meal and grass/silage no maize/beet/tmr etc....
Only in my fourth year of milking but herd is in top 2% for solids delivered in glanbia last year, in all fairness I should be no where near the top 10% in this group considering the base I started from, and easily will do 600kgs a year per cow by 2019 when the current crop of maiden heifers/incalf heifers mature and I stop expanding and would reckon grass and 1.3 ton of meal will easily achieve this

mahoney_j

jaymla627 wrote: »

Pedigree holstein herd up the road who i source bulls from and he can show you a herd of 10k cows going into 6/7/8/9 lactations, grass based system here aswell but I find it hilarious irish lads think that forigen/low ebi cows are fragile yokes that barely last 2 lactations, it's a myth that teagasc have been peddling for years
Delivered 533 kgs last year on co-op report with 70 % of herd in 1st/2nd lactation, should do 550-570kgs this year and will be putting in no more then 1.3 ton of meal and grass/silage no maize/beet/tmr etc....
Only in my fourth year of milking but herd is in top 2% for solids delivered in glanbia last year, in all fairness I should be no where near the top 10% in this group considering the base I started from, and easily will do 600kgs a year per cow by 2019 when the current crop of maiden heifers/incalf heifers mature and I stop expanding and would reckon grass and 1.3 ton of meal will easily achieve this

Define a lactation ,to me it's a cow that milks for 305/20 days and calves every year .more or less same figures as you here ,.85% calved in 6 weeks 100% 11.5 .3% empty last year .will do over 7600 ltrs 580 plus solids from grass and 1.2 t this year and I'm one of the sheep following the flock on grass and ebi .10 k ltrs herds are a myth in this country if your talking delievered figures not milk recorded or rolling average

stanflt

jaymla627 wrote: »

Pedigree holstein herd up the road who i source bulls from and he can show you a herd of 10k cows going into 6/7/8/9 lactations, grass based system here aswell but I find it hilarious irish lads think that forigen/low ebi cows are fragile yokes that barely last 2 lactations, it's a myth that teagasc have been peddling for years
Delivered 533 kgs last year on co-op report with 70 % of herd in 1st/2nd lactation, should do 550-570kgs this year and will be putting in no more then 1.3 ton of meal and grass/silage no maize/beet/tmr etc....
Only in my fourth year of milking but herd is in top 2% for solids delivered in glanbia last year, in all fairness I should be no where near the top 10% in this group considering the base I started from, and easily will do 600kgs a year per cow by 2019 when the current crop of maiden heifers/incalf heifers mature and I stop expanding and would reckon grass and 1.3 ton of meal will easily achieve this

Why doesnt his co op reports support 10k litres ???


Easy to have a milk recorded 10k herd but to have a 10k co op report he needs to be doing 750kg ms plus per cow which no body is doing

freedominacup

stanflt wrote: »

Why doesnt his co op reports support 10k litres ???


Easy to have a milk recorded 10k herd but to have a 10k co op report he needs to be doing 750kg ms plus per cow which no body is doing

We had a 9300l 305 day average here once upon a time. Funnily enough we could never get anywhere near 900,000l sold from 100 cows. I might differ with Stan and mj 're ebi but on this point I fully agree. Kgs delivered. That's all that counts.

kowtow

freedominacup wrote: »

$100 million was the total volume of sales on that scam operation yesterday. How much cash do you think you'd have needed in your account yesterday morning to move that "index" another $300/tonne kt? It's some joke when one trader with a small amount of cash can influence our incomes in such a dramatic manner. What prevented our co-ops buying against the drop in this market. It would have been a lot cheaper for the EU to buy for intervention from the gdt as the volumes are so small than the kind of open ended commitment made in the past twelve months.

The GDT auction is a bit of an oddity because it is dominated by a single supplier, and there is no transparency of the product being sold behind the auction (the value added, direct channel, product.. which as far as anyone knows can be more or less the same product) - so while the GDT represents a window in to the market it is hardly a clearing house. GDT volumes offered this quarter appear to be a little lower than in the same quarter last year, and maybe 40%? lower than the same quarter in 2014, lower also than 2013... and the bidding demand is also a lot weaker, but the point is that in the GDT we are not seeing all of the bidding demand or indeed all of the offered product.

All in all if you were going to manipulate the GDT auction it would be easier as a major seller on than it would as a buyer.

Futures contracts seem to have been quoted much more in the press lately, especially the NZ futures, but again these are very thinly traded markets and very little of the actual trade goes through them (or indeed is hedged on them) so whilst it would be fairly easy for a single buyer to gun the price upwards (or seller downwards) I'm not sure that the physical markets would follow suit, so it wouldn't be any use to terminal sellers of milk (those with a full bulk tank..)

I like the idea of the EU buying SMP directly on the NZ / CME futures exchange rather than here. Cuts out the middle man!

Brown Podzol

Realistically there is 30/40k lts 3k solids in most cows. You can get it over 3 or 6 lactations. The exceptional cow will 100 tonnes but how many cohorts will have fallen by the wayside. The trick is to get the output as economically as possible.

Mooooo

Could fonterra be just trying to put out a positive note so in order to prevent supply from dropping any further in nz at the start of their season?