RaboDirectPRO12 Race to Playoffs 2012/13

thomond2006

TABLE AFTER ROUND 15
Ulster 58
Glasgow 51
Leinster 49
Scarlets 46

---

Ospreys 43
Munster 41
Cardiff 32
Treviso 27
Connacht 24
Edinburgh 23
Dragons 18
Zebre 6

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/matchcentre/table.php

---

REMAINING FIXTURES

ULSTER:
Glasgow (A),Treviso (H), Edinburgh (A), Leinster (A), Dragons (H), Connacht (A), Cardiff (H)

GLASGOW:
Ulster (H), Cardiff (H), Leinster (A), Munster (H), Scarlets (A), Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)

LEINSTER:
Scarlets (H), Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Ulster (H), Munster (A), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)

SCARLETS:
Leinster (A), Edinburgh (H), Zebre (H), Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Cardiff (H), Treviso (H)

OSPREYS:
Edinburgh (H), Munster (A), Dragons (H), Cardiff (A), Treviso (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)

MUNSTER:
Treviso (A), Ospreys (H), Connacht (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (H), Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

---

It still looks like a six-horse race, I didn't include Cardiff above because I really doubt they will make a late push and their run-in is tough: they have to travel to Scarlets, Ulster and Glasgow . 14 points is quite a deficit to make up with only six games remaining.

Scarlets have probably the easiest run-in, their last four games are Dragons away and then three games at home. Ospreys have a tough run-in, with trips to Munster, Glasgow and Leinster.

Munster finish with two winnable away fixtures but they could be out of it by then, with two difficult games to come before those.

In terms of the race for home semi-finals, there are two massive games next weekend: Glasgow vs Ulster and Leinster vs Scarlets

durkadurka

Munster

Too soon man. Too soon!

Have to say if ulster beat Glasgow next week it's a done deal.

thomond2006

Ospreys

durkadurka wrote: »

Too soon man. Too soon!

not at all durka, if Munster and Ospreys win and Scarlets lose next weekend then it gets very interesting!

decisions

Ospreys

Ulster
Leinster
Glasgow
Ospreys

And a Leinster Ospreys Final.

irishbucsfan

Munster

Leinster have a tough run in. I'm sure they'll be a playoff team but they might be pushed to make a home semi.

Then against Glasgow's run in is equally tough. That could be a big factor.

The other big question of course: Will Zebre manage to win a game before the end of the season!?

jamiedav2011

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Leinster have a tough run in. I'm sure they'll be a playoff team but they might be pushed to make a home semi.

Then against Glasgow's run in is equally tough. That could be a big factor.

The other big question of course: Will Zebre manage to win a game before the end of the season!?

I'd say the opposite actually, playing teams around us at home is what I'd want, especially considering we're out of the HEC.

A win next weekend and we should be looking at only one loss until the end of the year, possibly in Thomond.

I actually think Glasgow will drop out and we'll see
Ulster
Leinster
Ospreys
Scarlets

Munster not out by a long shot yet though, they haven't a bad run in.

the_doctor199

I think Connacht away for Ulster could be a tricky one, they managed to beat us last year iirc, even though we sent down a weakened team. Things should be a lot clearer after the coming weekend I imagine though.

durkadurka

Munster

Hmmmmm

Glasgow have a pretty nasty run in but Scarlets have a handy one after Leinster next week.

Munster is pretty tricky to call because they have tricky home games and handy away games. The team is misfiring at the moment and are pretty vulnerable.

I fancy Leinster to finish very strong and push Ulster all the way.
If ulster win in Glasgow they really should have enough in some handy remaining fixtures. If they lose to Glasgow it could open up a bit.

Ospreys have some nasty away fixtures at Munster and Leinster but they've shown that they can win these fixtures.

Ulster Leinster Glasgow ospreys.

CatFromHue

Ospreys

Ulster, Glasgow, and Leinster I think will get into the play off spots with Lanelli there too.

Ospreys will be close but I'm not so confident of Munster being in the mix anymore. I'm not sure if they're going to win next weekend which considering they're 5 points behind 4th now would be a one they'd need to win.

.ak

Scarlets Leinster is the only Leinster home game I'm going to miss this year - and it's looking to be a cracker! The 'b-side' options for each team are exciting and they're both in the hunt for play offs.

Hrmm, I wonder if I can pull a sicky with the missus.

molloyjh

.ak wrote: »

Scarlets Leinster is the only Leinster home game I'm going to miss this year - and it's looking to be a cracker! The 'b-side' options for each team are exciting and they're both in the hunt for play offs.

Hrmm, I wonder if I can pull a sicky with the missus.

Me too. Haven't missed a home game in nearly 2 years.

This weekends games will give us a better idea but I reckon Ulster, Leinster, Glasgow and Scarlets should make the play offs. Munster just don't look like turning things around and they'd need to really. Ospreys could well nab 4th place, but I'm hoping Leinster and Munster get the wins at home against them which should rule them out.

Tox56

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

I'd say the opposite actually, playing teams around us at home is what I'd want, especially considering we're out of the HEC.

A win next weekend and we should be looking at only one loss until the end of the year, possibly in Thomond.

I actually think Glasgow will drop out and we'll see
Ulster
Leinster
Ospreys
Scarlets

Munster not out by a long shot yet though, they haven't a bad run in.

The Munster away game is key. Win that, and every single other game is winnable. Our away games are against Zebre and Dragons, and we should expect to win home games (even if one of them is against Ulster). An unbeaten finish isn't out of the question, and we would take a lot of points off our closest rivals in the process, although I suspect we will slip up somewhere.

awec

I suspect Leinster will win it outright.

totallegend

Ospreys

I reckon:

1. Ulster
2. Leinster
3. Glasgow
4. Scarlets

Ulster's fate is probably tied to their HEC progress. I don't think they have the depth of squad to really fight two battles so if they beat Saracens, they're going to start dropping points in the league...

Teferi

awec wrote: »

I suspect Leinster will win it outright.

If we make it to the playoffs this season and don't win it then I'm going to start believing in a Leinster curse tbh.

P_1

So there's a distinct possibility of Leinster playing the Ospreys twice in a row? Can't say I would be looking forward to that

.ak

I'd be happy never to play them again tbh. :P

iDave

Munster

I'd love to get Ospreys in the final. Some serious scores to be settled. Best way to exorcise demons is to beat them in a final!

justsomebloke

iDave wrote: »

I'd love to get Ospreys in the final. Some serious scores to be settled. Best way to exorcise demons is to beat them in a final!

No I'd like to win it ONCE first, after that we can settle scores but initially I would just like to get the friggin monkey off our back first

iDave

Munster

justsomebloke wrote: »

No I'd like to win it ONCE first, after that we can settle scores but initially I would just like to get the friggin monkey off our back first

Yeah fair enough, I'd enjoy doing both at the same time. I firmly believe Leinster are more than capable of beating them in a final.

Larbre34

Munster

Leinster have a very favourable fixture run-in, excellent chance of home final. Likewise I would love to see them win it and get the monkey off the back, its a pity the Amlin is distracting the focus, but two finals in two weeks at the RDS wouldnt be a bad return!

P_1

Larbre34 wrote: »

Leinster have a very favourable fixture run-in, excellent chance of home final. Likewise I would love to see them win it and get the monkey off the back, its a pity the Amlin is distracting the focus, but two finals in two weeks at the RDS wouldnt be a bad return!

To be fair, Leinster are one of the 'better' sides in Europe, fighting on two fronts shouldn't really be a challenge.

tolosenc

Munster

1. Ulster 82
2. Leinster 75
3. Scarlets 72
4. Glasgow 69
5. Munster 67
6. Ospreys 65

Munster are dead in the water unless it's Keatley from here on in. Even still, I doubt they'll make it.

Larbre34

Munster

P_1 wrote: »

To be fair, Leinster are one of the 'better' sides in Europe, fighting on two fronts shouldn't really be a challenge.

That they are, but the outcome of the last 4 league seasons would disagree with you - 3rd in 2009 and then lost every Grand Final since its inception, all while winning 3 Heineken Cups. Its getting like the Mayo curse.........

P_1

Larbre34 wrote: »

That they are, but the outcome of the last 4 league seasons would disagree with you - 3rd in 2009 and then lost every Grand Final since its inception, all while winning 3 Heineken Cups. Its getting like the Mayo curse.........

Shh, let's not mention that, it seems to inspire at least two epic rants a year from my Dad

thomond2006

Ospreys

Ospreys have so many back three players unavailable that they have been forced to play Kahn Fotuali'i on the wing: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/21507369

[Jackass]

Munster

Ulster built such a solid lead early on that they're a shoe in for the play-offs and a home semi.

Given that Leinster have all their play-off rivals still to play, and all but Munster at home, I think Leinster have a good opportunity to hurt oppenents run ins and thus think Leinster will make the top two.

Glasgow have really focused on the league again this year. They are a quality outfit, as good a back-three as you'll see in the competition, Hogg a staking a real claim for Lions tour, I think they'll hang on for the play-offs, but wont get a home semi.

Between Scarlets, Ospreys and Munster I think it's a three way shoot out. If Ospreys win in Thomond, it's season over for Munster. If Munster win I think it's season over Ospreys, with both Glasgow and Leinster away still to come, they have the toughest run in - that's a massive game.

Whoever wins that game will be in a direct shoot out with Scarlets, who have the most favourable run in, and it's in their own hands, if they win games they should, they wont be caught.

Leinster may yet have the opportunity to return the favour Munster did for them earlier in the season and stop their season dead in Thomond with a win down there. That should be a cracking match too.

Exciting run in. I voted Ulster, Leinster, Glasgow and Ospreys (but I MEANT Scarlets!!:()

CatFromHue

Ospreys

I think Ulster will get the play off spot but not sure if they'll get the home play off. They're 9 points ahead of Leinster but still have to come down here and will be doing very well to get anything out of tonight's game away to Glasgow. Another thing is that Leinster and Glasgow have caught up to them in the Tries scored so Ulsters buffer of finishing on equal points but having a better Tries scored is gone.

I'm not sure if Munster will win in Italy on Sunday which will put them all but out of the play off spots.

thomond2006

Ospreys

Top 6 as it stands going into tomorrow:

Ulster 59
Glasgow 56
Leinster 49 - Scarlets (h) tomorrow
Ospreys 47

---

Scarlets 46 - Leinster (a) tomorrow
Munster 41 - Treviso (a) tomorrow

Ospreys won 24-7 tonight at home to Edinburgh, they had three tries scored by 60 minutes but couldn't get the fourth.

Tox56

A win for Leinster tomorrow and we're within 6. Ideal scenario from a Leinster point of view would be 5 points tomorrow, bringing us within 5 of Ulster, with both Ulster and Glasgow still to visit the RDS

CatFromHue

Ospreys

thomond2006 wrote: »

Ospreys won 24-7 tonight at home to Edinburgh, they had three tries scored by 60 minutes but couldn't get the fourth.

Edinburgh had Atiga sin binned and then De Luca was sent off for a spear tackle, it sounds like a nasty one right at the end of the game.

durkadurka

Munster

Ulster still have five VERY winnable games to go against bottom six teams.


Treviso (H),
Edinburgh (A),
Leinster (A),
Dragons (H),
Connacht (A),
Cardiff (H)

The three home games plus embra away look like gimmes .
Connacht away is 50/50.

thomond2006

Ospreys

A lot will depend on Ulster's progress in Europe, if they have a full side out for most of those fixtures they'll be fine.

CatFromHue

Ospreys

Edinburgh haven't won a game since Sat 1 Dec so tonight was 6 losses in a row in the Rabo and 10 losses in a row incl the HEC :eek:

Next up is an away game to Lanelli and then a game at home to Ulster so it looks like they'll extend that streak to 12 losses in a row!

thomond2006

Ospreys

CatFromHue wrote: »

Edinburgh haven't won a game since Sat 1 Dec so tonight was 6 losses in a row in the Rabo and 10 losses in a row incl the HEC :eek:

Next up is an away game to Lanelli and then a game at home to Ulster so it looks like they'll extend that streak to 12 losses in a row!

How many did Connacht lose on the bounce last season?

P_1

thomond2006 wrote: »

How many did Connacht lose on the bounce last season?

13 I think

[Jackass]

Munster

Despite Ulsters loss, still pretty confident they'll top the table, as mentioned, their run in isn't bad, realistically, should expect to win 5 from their remaining 6 and a couple of BPs if needed.

Other than that, it's getting very crowded for the rest of the spots, big pressure on Munster to win on Sunday and stay in touch. There's no good outcome for them really from Leinster v Scarlets, maybe a Leinster win to just make the play-offs and keep Scarlets in sight. Big incentive for Leinster now, a win tomorrow will put us in good shape coming in to the home straight for a play-off place first and foremost, but a home semi within our own hands.

Nervous about the game tomorrow as it is, but more so now, really hope the lads can do it.

jacothelad

thomond2006 wrote: »

A lot will depend on Ulster's progress in Europe, if they have a full side out for most of those fixtures they'll be fine.

The trouble is we now know we won't have Ferris. Payne's injury looks a lot more problematic than was thought. Nick Williams still has his knee in a medical brace, Henry is out for at least 4 weeks. Wilson is out for 4 weeks, Muller is out with a groin injury. Wallace went off injured and it looked like a knee or ankle injury. He should have gone off when it happened and we wouldn't have gifted them a try because he couldn't stand on one leg. F*ckin stupid management. He should never have been at 10 to begin with. I have to say I'm pretty dismayed at the thought processes there. ROGesque stuff.

McAllister
Macklin
Muller,
Ferris,
Henry,
Doyle,
Williams,
Wilson
O'Connor
Bowe
Payne,
D'Arcy,
Nelson

We can get by without McAllister, Macklin, Doyle, NOC, and Nelson. They would all be back ups anyway. Muller, Williams, Bowe and Payne are pretty central to what the team have done so far that is positive.

durkadurka

Munster

Aye injuries are probably going to do a job on Ulsters season.
I don't think it's possible to do well in April /may without a reasonably full deck.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Munster

jacothelad wrote: »

The trouble is we now know we won't have Ferris. Payne's injury looks a lot more problematic than was thought. Nick Williams still has his knee in a medical brace, Henry is out for at least 4 weeks. Wilson is out for 4 weeks, Muller is out with a groin injury. Wallace went off injured and it looked like a knee or ankle injury. He should have gone off when it happened and we wouldn't have gifted them a try because he couldn't stand on one leg. F*ckin stupid management. He should never have been at 10 to begin with. I have to say I'm pretty dismayed at the thought processes there. ROGesque stuff.

McAllister
Macklin
Muller,
Ferris,
Henry,
Doyle,
Williams,
Wilson
O'Connor
Bowe
Payne,
D'Arcy,
Nelson

We can get by without McAllister, Macklin, Doyle, NOC, and Nelson. They would all be back ups anyway. Muller, Williams, Bowe and Payne are pretty central to what the team have done so far that is positive.

Ferris, Henry, Doyle, Williams, Wilson. Thats 5 backrows.

With all of those missing what would Ulsters best backrow be? 6 Henderson 7 McComish 8 Diack. The drop off between 6 Ferris 7 Henry 8 Williams is massive.

Ulster could be limping through the rest of the season and will be really streched if they get through in the HEC.

thomond2006

Ospreys

The injuries tend to go in cycles around the provinces, IIRC Leinster had many players missing at the start of this season while Munster were decimated towards the end of last season. Connacht have had it pretty bad at times too.

tolosenc

Munster

Go away Ospreys.

durkadurka

Munster

Bit of a top three, next three look to it now.

Will be very surprised if Leinster don't get the home semi now.

Munster need to win tomorrow , which is by no means a certainty to stay in the hunt

[Jackass]

Munster

Great win for Leinster last night, Madigan really changed the game when he came on.

Munster sunk to a pretty dire defeat, especially considering the amount of players Treviso have in the Italian squad and it was a reasonably strong Munster team.

Glasgow beating Ulster was good from a Leinster point of view, Ospreys keep the pressure up too.

Looks like the top 3 have pulled enough away that it'll be a real scrap between Ospreys, Scarlets and Munster for that final spot.

P_1

[Jackass] wrote: »

Spoilers dude, I think a few lads are waiting on the delayed coverage of the Munster match

thomond2006

Ospreys

TABLE AFTER ROUND 16
Ulster 59
Glasgow 56
Leinster 54
Ospreys 47

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Scarlets 46
Munster 41
Cardiff 33
Treviso 32
Connacht 28
Edinburgh 23
Dragons 22
Zebre 7

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/matchcentre/table.php

---

REMAINING FIXTURES

ULSTER:
Treviso (H), Edinburgh (A), Leinster (A), Dragons (H), Connacht (A), Cardiff (H)

GLASGOW:
Cardiff (H), Leinster (A), Munster (H), Scarlets (A), Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)

LEINSTER:
Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Ulster (H), Munster (A), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)

OSPREYS:
Munster (A), Dragons (H), Cardiff (A), Treviso (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)

SCARLETS:
Edinburgh (H), Zebre (H), Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Cardiff (H), Treviso (H)

MUNSTER:
Ospreys (H), Connacht (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (H), Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

I think Ulster and Glasgow are both safe in terms of playoff places, however both home semi-final spots are still up for grabs.

Munster are really up against it now. IMO they'll need 9 points minimum from their next two games. If Ospreys win in Limerick (they've a great record home and away against Munster) then it's curtains. Unless Scarlets fall apart they should be through, very simple run-in.

durkadurka

Munster

I think Munster are done tbh. The team is just misfiring so much .

P_1

Yeah looks like Munster need one of the Scarlets or the Ospreys to have some sort of a meltdown to have any chance

Quint2010

Leinster will be going balls out now for Glasgow and maybe even Ulster. I think those 3 are home and hosed. 4th is up for grabs and Munster are still just about in it. Apart from Leinster they have a relatively easy run in(on paper) but they seriously need to improve.

Lemonaski

Just goes to show you how good Leinster were last week. That Treviso side are very underrated

jamiedav2011

Lemonaski wrote: »

Just goes to show you how good Leinster were last week. That Treviso side are very underrated

Ah Treviso were a very different team last week.

Scarlets' run in is insane, they're surely a shoe in for 4th if not third.

Hope Leinster can keep pressure on Ulster and beat Glasgow at home.